Football Outsiders, PFF and CHFF analysis of the Pats offensive line

[RI Patriots fan]

I know how some of you guys just LOVE PFF (note:sarcasm) but I thought that this was interesting given the criticism of the Offensive line this season.


7. New England Patriots

PB = 16th, RB = 3rd, PEN = 1st

Even with Logan Mankins less than 100% the line has still come together to play well with nobody more so than Sebastian Vollmer. Special credit to the run blocking of Ryan Wendell, and how Nate Solder has held up at left tackle.


And our next opponent:


29. St Louis Rams

PB = 29th, RB = 21st, PEN = 29th

29th may not seem great, but when you consider the injuries this unit as overcome, it’s something of a victory. Guys who have been turnstile tackles elsewhere, Wayne Hunter and Barry Richardson, have held up reasonably well, while the worst ranked performer (Quinn Ojinnaka) has just been let go.



https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/24/offensive-line-rankings/

 

[12ClutchFactor]

Two things here. One, you should brace yourself now because people are about to jump in hand over fist to bash PFF. I'm apathetic in terms of how good their analysis is, but most others here are not.

Secondly, I can't believe our run blocking is rated that high. I mean, when we have absolutely had to run, they couldn't get it done. Examples: up late against Seattle, up late against the Jets, up late against the Ravens. I will say that when they get it going, it really gets going.

 

[jmt57]

I think the bulk of the criticism of the Patriots offensive line was based on how poorly they were performing in August, partially in training camp but mostly in the pre-season games. It has been a work in progress; as each week goes by the cohesiveness of the unit as a whole becomes more apparent. The more time they spend together the better; one of the biggest obstacles for any NFL offensive line to overcome is a lack of continuity.




For what it's worth here are a couple other current OL rankings.

Cold Hard Football Facts | Offensive Hog Index Through Week 7 of the 2012 Regular Season

Their "Offensive Hog Index" is simply based on three metrics: yards per rush attempt; negative pass play (sack or interception) percentage; and success rate on third down.

CHFF ranks the Pats OL first overall. They place the Pats 11th in yards per carry, 3rd in negative pass plays, and 3rd on third down. Giants rank 2nd and Houston ranks 3rd overall.



Football Outsiders | OL

Through week seven Football Outsiders ranks the Pats OL 5th in run blocking and 12 th in pass protection. They rank the best run blocking teams as being the 49ers, Ravens and Seattle, with the Giants, Cowboys and Bills as tops in pass protection.

 

[ATippett56]

PFF is garbage!

Cold, Hard Football Facts

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: The Truth Hurts

 

[jmt57]

As for the Seattle game I would say this: one, Seattle has one of the league's very best run defenses. Two, there were times when the Pats were moving the ball on the ground and they stopped (e.g., the 3rd & 1 pick). Three, it's hard to get an effective run game going when you pass the ball 58 times. Four, the stop at the end of the game was due in large part to the coaching decision; when you come out with no WR, three TE and a FB you may as well invite the opposing defense into your huddle to listen to your play call. Seattle saw the formation, brought everybody to the line of scrimmage and the Pats stubbornly ran Ridley right into the line anyways, with no place to go.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Another FO analysis piece on the Pats' OL'

Another nice one from Ben Muth:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Word of Muth: Bookends of New England

 

[BSR]

FO: Pats Oline breakdown

Ben Muth did a nice article on the performance of the Pats oline against the Jets complete with examples and pictures. I think its worth the read.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Word of Muth: Bookends of New England

The "they" in question are war daddies, studs, fridge hangers, trophy fish, or whatever else you want to call someone that looks like every GM's mental picture of the perfect specimen for their position. On Sunday, when I was watching left tackle Nate Solder, I thought to myself on more than a few occasions "that’s what they look like."

First, he just looks like a left tackle. He’s tall with long arms and plays with better bend than you'd think a guy of his size would. He’s as close to lean as you’ll see from an NFL offensive lineman. On top of that, he does a nice job of giving rushers different looks. One play he’ll jump set a guy and lock-on with his punch, then the next play he’ll take a vertical set straight back and shove the guy on his punch (trying to knock him past the quarterback), and after that he’ll set and cut. He has a lot of tools in his arsenal.

 

[captain stone]

I'd still rather have Koppen than Wendell. Connolly's better than either of them, but he's also our best Guard,
and Bill obviously believes that Wendell's a better Center than Thomas or McDonald are Guards.

 

[VrabelJr]

Pretty crazy that the Giants O Line is also ranked super high. They really have a bunch of JAGs, besides Snee and Baas, that seem to just play well together.

Imagine if we had an elite Center...

 

[DarrylS]

Tip of the hat to Dante...

Last year we started 3 probowlers, last week none....

But I do suspect that the "trust factor" for Brady has been effected...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

You know what Bill says about stats. I think a lot of this "data" gets skewed based on situations. We ran an entire game in Duck mode. Can't do that consistently. Our offense stalled because we couldn't run when we really needed to or complete passes as efficiently as we needed to. Some of that is on the line. Guys can seeming do well in one on one matchups and yet makes mistakes or come up short in critical situations and it doesn't really matter. Not sure how well this unit would do if Brady wasn't standing behind it.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

In the JEST game it was striking how often Brady was getting rid of the ball as best he could, compared with Sanchez having time to set up a lemonade stand, sell a glass, make change for a five, and mix up another pitcher. Now I know this is a reflection of the pass rush as well as our O-line, but they did not look like world-beaters from what I saw.

Great, people think our OTs "LOOK" like OTs are supposed to look. I think they just need gelling time, but they still worry me. I don't know about you guys.

 

[patfanken]

I'd still rather have Koppen than Wendell. Connolly's better than either of them, but he's also our best Guard,
and Bill obviously believes that Wendell's a better Center than Thomas or McDonald are Guards.

He also believes that Wendell is a better C than Koppen. But what does he and Dante know compared to resident geniuses here on this board.

That being said, I agree with you that Connolly is probably the better C of all of them, being bigger and stronger than Wendell, especially at the start of the season, but that might not be true right now.

 

[everlong]

I wonder if they knew for certain that Waters wasn't coming back and still cut Koppen. I have to think they thought he was still in the fold when that happened. If you insert Waters at RG making the line Solder, Mankins, Connolly, Waters and Vollmer I think the offense would be much more solid.

 

[patfanken]

You know what Bill says about stats. I think a lot of this "data" gets skewed based on situations. We ran an entire game in Duck mode. Can't do that consistently. Our offense stalled because we couldn't run when we really needed to or complete passes as efficiently as we needed to. Some of that is on the line. Guys can seeming do well in one on one matchups and yet makes mistakes or come up short in critical situations and it doesn't really matter. Not sure how well this unit would do if Brady wasn't standing behind it.

Well clearly having a HOF QB with Brady's experience and knowledge of the offense is a plus when considering how well the OL is playing, but judging the OL without him being the QB is pure supposition on your part and rather meaningless since he IS there. Kind of like trying to disprove a negative.

I think the main point of all these articles is to prove that comments on about the OL like we saw in the Breer article are examples of the bad analysis being done by many mediots who are looking to hammer the Pats for not meeting their "expectations".

The reality is that the OL hasn't been just good. When you consider that both starting G's have missed multiple games. The C and LT are first year starters and the RT has missed a significant number of snaps due to his bad back; the Pats OL has been down right outstanding. and by most metrics one of the better OL's in the NFL.

What should be heartening to Pats fans, if they stopped whining for a second, is that the upside of the OL is still has a long way to go. If they are one of the better OL's in the league NOW, how much better can they be when Solder and Wendell get more experience. Mankins and Connolly get healthy, and Volmer's back continues to improve

But lets ignore all this information and concentrate on what some unknown "source" told tje likes of Burt Breer and run around with our hair on fire, yelling that the sky is falling

 

[patfanken]

I wonder if they knew for certain that Waters wasn't coming back and still cut Koppen. I have to think they thought he was still in the fold when that happened. If you insert Waters at RG making the line Solder, Mankins, Connolly, Waters and Vollmer I think the offense would be much more solid.

By the time they cut Koppen, I'm pretty sure that they knew that there was a distinct possibility that Waters wasn't coming back, if not a surety. That should tell you al you want to know about how they rated Koppen compared to Wendell, McDonnell, Connolly, and Thomas. All of whom can play multiple positions, while Koppen was having a bad camp and can play only one.

BTW- I should state that Wendell's play has far exceeded my low expectations. I never thought he'd be the one to emerge as the starter

 

[everlong]

Well clearly having a HOF QB with Brady's experience and knowledge of the offense is a plus when considering how well the OL is playing, but judging the OL without him being the QB is pure supposition on your part and rather meaningless since he IS there. Kind of like trying to disprove a negative.

I disagree. Brady and the hurry up offense have made the line look much better than it is. If this group was in fact as good as some of the rankings they would be able to power run on 3rd and 2 when the other team knew it was coming. It would mean Brady would have more time to go down field. I'm not saying they're a bad line. They simply aren't a great line.

It's like saying the Giants have a great secondary without considering the pass rush that bails them out.

 

[nekromantique]

Pretty crazy that the Giants O Line is also ranked super high. They really have a bunch of JAGs, besides Snee and Baas, that seem to just play well together.

Imagine if we had an elite Center...

best part is that the giants o-line actually seemed pretty bad until a couple got injured and replaced. now it's a stud line haha


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[everlong]

By the time they cut Koppen, I'm pretty sure that they knew that there was a distinct possibility that Waters wasn't coming back, if not a surety. That should tell you al you want to know about how they rated Koppen compared to Wendell, McDonnell, Connolly, and Thomas. All of whom can play multiple positions, while Koppen was having a bad camp and can play only one.

BTW- I should state that Wendell's play has far exceeded my low expectations. I never thought he'd be the one to emerge as the starter

Koppen has actually exceeded my expectations in Denver. I think Koppen's early play along with the fact he can't play multiple positions hurt him. I think Wendell has been good in pass protection but much like Koppen he's sub par at best as a run blocker and always needs a combo block.

 

[VrabelJr]

best part is that the giants o-line actually seemed pretty bad until a couple got injured and replaced. now it's a stud line haha


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That teams never ending streak of lucks pisses me off so ******* much.