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Football Outsiders on Gostkowski

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by BelichickFan, Oct 4, 2006.

  1. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Don't mess with Gotti :

    "New England fans may be ready to ditch rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski after yet another blown field goal this week. But Gostkowski excels at that other, equally important aspect of his job: kickoffs. Gostkowski is the only kicker to average more than 70 yards per kickoff this season, and according to our numbers, his kickoffs alone have given the Patriots 4.5 points worth of estimated field position compared to an average kicker. Cleveland's Phil Dawson is the only other kicker more than 2.4 points above average. The better the field position for the Patriots defense, the less likely the team will need Gostkowski to win the game with a clutch field goal."

    http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6027304
  2. Lockdown06

    Lockdown06 Rookie

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    i am more than willing to allow a few field goal mishaps this year in exchange for this -- gostkowski will be one hell of a kicker a couple of years down the road.
  3. rabthepat

    rabthepat Rookie

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    His kick offs have been great yet I am worried about him come crunch time.
  4. 5 Rings for Brady!!

    5 Rings for Brady!! Rookie

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    The fact is that Adam is a Colt, by his choice. We need a kicker, and went with the best option we had. I don't see missing the occasional 48 yarder as a disgrace, and will wait to see the protection improve before I blame him 100% for blocked kicks.

    We don't have a better option at kicker. Just like Branch missed a bunch of games as a rookie, just like Givens dropped passes, just like Chad Jackson has been in about 10 snaps a game, just like Maroney was stuffed against Denver, our kicker will struggle.

    But at the same time he has potential to be good or possibly great, as this article suggests.

    Expecting Ghost to be the next great kicker straight from day one is a little like expecting Mankins to be the next John Hannah, from day one.
  5. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

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    It may sound mysterious how they compute these 'points" but its simple operations Research type czlculation.

    There is a probability of scoring taht gpoes up,every yard closer to the opponent's goaline that you get. This can be computed from historical data, and is quite consistent.

    From simple observation, y'all intuitively know that having the ball at YOUR one line yard is not as likely to result in a score as having the ball on THIER one yard line, goal to go. the odds are somewheee in between at each yard between the goalines.

    This is the basis for coaching decsions to punt, go for long field goals, try for it on fourth down, et cetera.

    Most coaches intuitively know the odds, but overall the most successful coaches always seem to go for it on fourth down much more than the average coach. This is usually a winning position too, as the reward for a TD is 7 or maybe 8, or zero not making it, versus three (FG), or zero (Punt).
  6. ilduce06410

    ilduce06410 Rookie

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    Gostkowski's kicks

    he may miss a couple crunch kick this year. heck every time pats go on the road he's kicking off a surface he's never seen before.
    year-to-year, the numbers suggest that kickers with a 90% success rate are considered to be good. above 90%, incrementally, better and better.
    i'd expect to see gostowski finish at 80% of attempts. ok for a rookie kicker. .

    it's real nice to see those kickoffs go 5 yaers into the endzone, instead of landing at the 10. that, too, has a point value. which is why BB continues to emphasize performance on special teams.
    the kid's got a leg no doubt. now it's a matter of getting thru the first 2-3 saeasons without him turning into a nervous wreck. he does look like a keeper.
  7. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    Re: Gostkowski's kicks

    Don't forget that way back in 1996 (I'm going by memory from here, but it's at least 90% accurate), the Patriots let go whichever Bahr brother was kicking for them to go with an undrafted rookie named Vinatieri, who had longer kickoffs than Bahr, if less consistent with FGs. The Pats went 0-2 to start the season, and Vinatieri missed a makeable field goal. Game 3 was against Arizona, and Vinatieri missed two fairly easy field goals wide. With the Patriots leading something like 30-7, Coach Parcells summoned Vinatieri to kick a 45-ish yard field goal withing the last two minutes of the game. Vinatieri was kicking for his job. He made it, and got confidence along the way kicking for the eventual AFC champions. He kicked for the Patriots for 9 seasons.

    People forget how close the Vinatieri legend almost got aborted before it began. Right now, I'm seeing a lot of similarities with Steve. I'm sure he'll be fine.
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2006
  8. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If you remember when Vinatieri left, there was a story that he was ranked internally by the Patriots as something like the 17th most valuable kicker in the league. If that was true, I'm sure it was based on combining this probability of scores against us from field position combined with his FG kicking.
  9. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    Re: Gostkowski's kicks

    Good points. Some people also forget that Adam in the last few years missed some key kicks. Everyone remembers his miss in the playoff loss last year, but in the Carolina Super Bowl, he missed *two* kicks. I remember thinking as he lined up for that last field goal, that if he missed it he would have cancelled his legend. He of course made it, but that was living on the edge.
  10. Oswlek

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    Re: Gostkowski's kicks

    90% is not good, 90% is great. 80% is the mark for good/bad, not 90%.

    Put this another way; Vinatieri was 20-25 in the playoffs or 80%. Was he a good FG kicker?
  11. mtbykr

    mtbykr Rookie

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    Re: Gostkowski's kicks

    Bingo!!! AV had a shaky start too and was able to put it together. Not that i am saying Ghost will be another AV, but let's at least give him the chance. I think last week ghost was more concerned with getting the kick past the line, and that may have affected him somewhat. I think he will be fine once he feels comfortable!
  12. SkiHound

    SkiHound Rookie

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    The field position on kickoffs has been very evident. I hardly recall the Bengals even running any back. Hopefully he can get some confidence in the field goal department cause he certainly has a lot of leg.
  13. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Analysis that compares field position to average is all well and good. Our former PK had a 68.1 yard KO average through the first 4 games LAST season in his dotage. Gotti certainly has a strong leg but it remains to be seen how it functions in horrendous conditions and whether or not he can be consistently accurate inside the 40. His longest FG to date of his 3-6 is 32 yards. Our former PK was also 6-7 inside the 50 with no blocks, and one of those kicks won a very close game against Pittsburgh where he kicked what at the time was the longest FG ever made at Hinds at 48 yards. ;)
  14. PatsFanSince74

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    The guy's young, he's gonna have a learning curve. He's gonna miss a few FG's we'd prefer that he would make (hopefully not with two ticks left in Miami in February), but his leg strength suggests that he's going to be a fine Field Goal kicker if we'll just give him the chance.
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2006
  15. Terry Glenn is a cowgirl

    Terry Glenn is a cowgirl Banned

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    I remember when alot of you wanted the kicker from the Falcons. He got demoted from an 80 year old from Denmark. Pretty bad to be replaced by something "smelly"...

    Anyways...

    The kicker better play better then this... but, he IS a rookie.
  16. Coast2CoastPatsFan

    Coast2CoastPatsFan Rookie

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    I'm sure AV's age and injury risk factored into this ranking as well. He's already experiencing health issues in Indy this early into the season.
  17. stcjones

    stcjones Rookie

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    agreed.....hope he starts to get more "clutch" as he becomes more seasoned......I'm sure he'll be fine
  18. edgecy

    edgecy Rookie

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    There will be some period of growing pains for us. AV was a legend, and we can't expect Gost to come in and immediately replace AV, for me, I won't mind at all if Gost misses a kick here and there because that's all part of the learning process.

    I am interested to see him kicking in the snow, that's for sure.
  19. PATRIOT64

    PATRIOT64 Rookie

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    If memory serves me right,Didn't Adam miss 3 Field Goals in 1 game against Buffalo in his rookie season? I distinctly remember that after pulling out my hair that day when the third one went too far right-I think we somehow still won that game,but am not sure and I think it was at Shaeffer Stadium
  20. 5 Rings for Brady!!

    5 Rings for Brady!! Rookie

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    I fail to see the benefit of talking about Adam one way or the other. It just doesn't matter. He went and joined the Colts. Blame him, blame the Pats, blame Polian, blame the Krafts, blame the Lord, it is all irrelevant.

    Here in 2006, we don't have the option of letting Adam kick for us. So what difference does it make what he kicked in Pittsburgh or what his field position was last year?

    The comparison of rookie stats is merely to symbolize the fact that rookies can improve, even potential HOF kickers. But comparing the recent history of a guy not on our team to a complete rookie who clearly had two instances of bad protection all seems a bit contrived to me. No matter which side of the debate you are on.

    Let's all move on.
  21. Armen Da Pats Fan

    Armen Da Pats Fan Rookie

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    Be careful...

    Dem's fighting words around these parts...

    Armen Da Crap Fan
  22. Armen Da Pats Fan

    Armen Da Pats Fan Rookie

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    They are also saying this:

    "Gostkowski is the No. 1 kickoff guy in the NFL..."

    "Field goals are a different story, of course..."

    http://sportsline.com/nfl/players/playerpage/411579




    "Player News

    According to the Boston Herald, the Patriots might be considering a kicking change because of rookie Stephen Gostkowski's struggles. The Herald asked "at what point will they consider bringing in a veteran to assume some of the duties?" According to the statisticians at Pro Football Prospectus, Gostkowski is the No. 1 kickoff guy in the NFL, being the only kicker to average 70 yards off the tee. Through four weeks, Gostkowski is tied for second in the league in touchbacks (six) and the Pats are fourth in opponents’ average start position (21.2-yard line). Field goals are a different story, of course. The Pats are tied for 29th in the league in field goal percentage, as Gostkowski has made only 3-of-6 attempts. He’s had two short-range attempts blocked (from 29 and 37 yards out) and he wasn’t even in the same zip code as the uprights on a miss from 48 yards in Cincinnati on Sunday.

    (Updated 10/04/2006). "
  23. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    Armen, I enjoy your contributions to this site, but I think you are off base with your take on Gostkowski.

    First, who would you propose that NE cut to make room for a second kicker, particularly now with several injuries in the secondary?

    Second, would it a) help or b) hurt Gostkowski's development if you strip FG duties from him? Probably not a).

    I don't like it any more than you do that I no longer feel that 3 points are guaranteed once NE crosses an opponents 30, but I don't like the prospect of weakening the team further to put a bandaid over the issue.
  24. Armen Da Pats Fan

    Armen Da Pats Fan Rookie

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    Oswlek...

    Good questions and I'll admit, I haven't thought it through that far...

    And I will say I would not cut Gostkowski or anyione to make room for a new kicker, because I think he could be good kicker based on his pre-season performance and his kickoffs...

    So, the answer to the first question is I wouldn't cut him - I would try to put him on the PS (if possible) and have someone like Gramatica simply replace him until Gostkowski is ready to kick at this level. (I am not sure if we can put him on the practice squad or not. Not sure how that works for kickers. If we can't, it's a moot point anyway.)

    The second question, about his development, is an entirely different one. I don't think we should be "developing" at this level in the regular season. So, if Gostkowski needs some more development, he needs to do it somehwere else where it could not potentially cost us games.

    A veteran kicker would give us more stability while we bring Gostkowski along.

    Bottom line is at this point, honestly, I don't want him out there in a 17-17 divisional game against Miami or New York with :37 left having to kick a 41-yard field goal to win it!

    That's all I'm saying...

    ADPF
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2006
  25. CaffeineMan

    CaffeineMan Rookie

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    The problem with making a judgement on Gotti now is that all we can see is the end result for 4 games this year so far. We can't see what the coaching staff sees, so I'm not sure we can tell if his performance is likely to improve or not. It would be pretty easy to bail and find a vet kicker who's a known quantity. But I'm not sure it's worth it, given that for half his responsibilities the kid's been absolutely stellar. Choosing a rookie kicker is something of a short-term risk for a long-term reward. I hope the Pats will be patient here, since I think it could pay off. And I mean pay off later this year, not just in future years.
  26. Amnorix

    Amnorix Rookie

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    I'm amazed and very happy at the patience people on here are showing for Ghost.

    Of course, he hasn't cost us a game yet, and that's when it will hit the fan, if/when that happens.

    But it's very legitimate to note that opposing offenses RARELY get past the 25 yard line with this guy, whereas with AV they were OFTEN in the 25-35 yard range for starting field position.

    I don't mind block FGs so much, as usually that means protection at least as much as angle of kick. The 48 yard miss WAS from 48, although what worried me there was it wasn't even close. It was WAAAY wide right.

    But he's a rook, so we have to give him a chance, especially with the points he's NOT letting the other team score. Right now he's the Alex Gonzalez of the Patriots, great defense, but not so great offense. We need him to be a bit more like Jeter or whatever, defense AND offense.

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