Football Outsiders on Gostkowski

[BelichickFan]

Don't mess with Gotti :

"New England fans may be ready to ditch rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski after yet another blown field goal this week. But Gostkowski excels at that other, equally important aspect of his job: kickoffs. Gostkowski is the only kicker to average more than 70 yards per kickoff this season, and according to our numbers, his kickoffs alone have given the Patriots 4.5 points worth of estimated field position compared to an average kicker. Cleveland's Phil Dawson is the only other kicker more than 2.4 points above average. The better the field position for the Patriots defense, the less likely the team will need Gostkowski to win the game with a clutch field goal."

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6027304

 

[Lockdown06]

i am more than willing to allow a few field goal mishaps this year in exchange for this -- gostkowski will be one hell of a kicker a couple of years down the road.

 

[rabthepat]

His kick offs have been great yet I am worried about him come crunch time.

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

The fact is that Adam is a Colt, by his choice. We need a kicker, and went with the best option we had. I don't see missing the occasional 48 yarder as a disgrace, and will wait to see the protection improve before I blame him 100% for blocked kicks.

We don't have a better option at kicker. Just like Branch missed a bunch of games as a rookie, just like Givens dropped passes, just like Chad Jackson has been in about 10 snaps a game, just like Maroney was stuffed against Denver, our kicker will struggle.

But at the same time he has potential to be good or possibly great, as this article suggests.

Expecting Ghost to be the next great kicker straight from day one is a little like expecting Mankins to be the next John Hannah, from day one.

 

[AzPatsFan]

It may sound mysterious how they compute these 'points" but its simple operations Research type czlculation.

There is a probability of scoring taht gpoes up,every yard closer to the opponent's goaline that you get. This can be computed from historical data, and is quite consistent.

From simple observation, y'all intuitively know that having the ball at YOUR one line yard is not as likely to result in a score as having the ball on THIER one yard line, goal to go. the odds are somewheee in between at each yard between the goalines.

This is the basis for coaching decsions to punt, go for long field goals, try for it on fourth down, et cetera.

Most coaches intuitively know the odds, but overall the most successful coaches always seem to go for it on fourth down much more than the average coach. This is usually a winning position too, as the reward for a TD is 7 or maybe 8, or zero not making it, versus three (FG), or zero (Punt).

 

[ilduce06410]

Gostkowski's kicks

His kick offs have been great yet I am worried about him come crunch time.

he may miss a couple crunch kick this year. heck every time pats go on the road he's kicking off a surface he's never seen before.
year-to-year, the numbers suggest that kickers with a 90% success rate are considered to be good. above 90%, incrementally, better and better.
i'd expect to see gostowski finish at 80% of attempts. ok for a rookie kicker. .

it's real nice to see those kickoffs go 5 yaers into the endzone, instead of landing at the 10. that, too, has a point value. which is why BB continues to emphasize performance on special teams.
the kid's got a leg no doubt. now it's a matter of getting thru the first 2-3 saeasons without him turning into a nervous wreck. he does look like a keeper.

 

[dryheat44]

Re: Gostkowski's kicks

Don't forget that way back in 1996 (I'm going by memory from here, but it's at least 90% accurate), the Patriots let go whichever Bahr brother was kicking for them to go with an undrafted rookie named Vinatieri, who had longer kickoffs than Bahr, if less consistent with FGs. The Pats went 0-2 to start the season, and Vinatieri missed a makeable field goal. Game 3 was against Arizona, and Vinatieri missed two fairly easy field goals wide. With the Patriots leading something like 30-7, Coach Parcells summoned Vinatieri to kick a 45-ish yard field goal withing the last two minutes of the game. Vinatieri was kicking for his job. He made it, and got confidence along the way kicking for the eventual AFC champions. He kicked for the Patriots for 9 seasons.

People forget how close the Vinatieri legend almost got aborted before it began. Right now, I'm seeing a lot of similarities with Steve. I'm sure he'll be fine.

 

[BelichickFan]

It may sound mysterious how they compute these 'points" but its simple operations Research type calculation.

There is a probability of scoring taht goes up,every yard closer to the opponent's goaline that you get. This can be computed from historical data, and is quite consistent.

If you remember when Vinatieri left, there was a story that he was ranked internally by the Patriots as something like the 17th most valuable kicker in the league. If that was true, I'm sure it was based on combining this probability of scores against us from field position combined with his FG kicking.

 

[Kasmir]

Re: Gostkowski's kicks

Don't forget that way back in 1996 (I'm going by memory from here, but it's at least 90% accurate), the Patriots let go whichever Bahr brother was kicking for them to go with an undrafted rookie named Vinatieri, who had longer kickoffs than Bahr, if less consistent with FGs. The Pats went 0-2 to start the season, and Vinatieri missed a makeable field goal. Game 3 was against Arizona, and Vinatieri missed two fairly easy field goals wide. With the Patriots leading something like 30-7, Coach Parcells summoned Vinatieri to kick a 45-ish yard field goal withing the last two minutes of the game. Vinatieri was kicking for his job. He made it, and got confidence along the way kicking for the eventual AFC champions. He kicked for the Patriots for 9 seasons.

People forget how close the Vinatieri legend almost got aborted before it began. Right now, I'm seeing a lot of similarities with Steve. I'm sure he'll be fine.

Good points. Some people also forget that Adam in the last few years missed some key kicks. Everyone remembers his miss in the playoff loss last year, but in the Carolina Super Bowl, he missed *two* kicks. I remember thinking as he lined up for that last field goal, that if he missed it he would have cancelled his legend. He of course made it, but that was living on the edge.

 

[Oswlek]

Re: Gostkowski's kicks

he may miss a couple crunch kick this year. heck every time pats go on the road he's kicking off a surface he's never seen before.
year-to-year, the numbers suggest that kickers with a 90% success rate are considered to be good. above 90%, incrementally, better and better.
i'd expect to see gostowski finish at 80% of attempts. ok for a rookie kicker. .

it's real nice to see those kickoffs go 5 yaers into the endzone, instead of landing at the 10. that, too, has a point value. which is why BB continues to emphasize performance on special teams.
the kid's got a leg no doubt. now it's a matter of getting thru the first 2-3 saeasons without him turning into a nervous wreck. he does look like a keeper.

90% is not good, 90% is great. 80% is the mark for good/bad, not 90%.

Put this another way; Vinatieri was 20-25 in the playoffs or 80%. Was he a good FG kicker?

 

[mtbykr]

Re: Gostkowski's kicks

Don't forget that way back in 1996 (I'm going by memory from here, but it's at least 90% accurate), the Patriots let go whichever Bahr brother was kicking for them to go with an undrafted rookie named Vinatieri, who had longer kickoffs than Bahr, if less consistent with FGs. The Pats went 0-2 to start the season, and Vinatieri missed a makeable field goal. Game 3 was against Arizona, and Vinatieri missed two fairly easy field goals wide. With the Patriots leading something like 30-7, Coach Parcells summoned Vinatieri to kick a 45-ish yard field goal withing the last two minutes of the game. Vinatieri was kicking for his job. He made it, and got confidence along the way kicking for the eventual AFC champions. He kicked for the Patriots for 9 seasons.

People forget how close the Vinatieri legend almost got aborted before it began. Right now, I'm seeing a lot of similarities with Steve. I'm sure he'll be fine.

Bingo!!! AV had a shaky start too and was able to put it together. Not that i am saying Ghost will be another AV, but let's at least give him the chance. I think last week ghost was more concerned with getting the kick past the line, and that may have affected him somewhat. I think he will be fine once he feels comfortable!

 

[SkiHound]

The field position on kickoffs has been very evident. I hardly recall the Bengals even running any back. Hopefully he can get some confidence in the field goal department cause he certainly has a lot of leg.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Analysis that compares field position to average is all well and good. Our former PK had a 68.1 yard KO average through the first 4 games LAST season in his dotage. Gotti certainly has a strong leg but it remains to be seen how it functions in horrendous conditions and whether or not he can be consistently accurate inside the 40. His longest FG to date of his 3-6 is 32 yards. Our former PK was also 6-7 inside the 50 with no blocks, and one of those kicks won a very close game against Pittsburgh where he kicked what at the time was the longest FG ever made at Hinds at 48 yards.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

The guy's young, he's gonna have a learning curve. He's gonna miss a few FG's we'd prefer that he would make (hopefully not with two ticks left in Miami in February), but his leg strength suggests that he's going to be a fine Field Goal kicker if we'll just give him the chance.

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

I remember when alot of you wanted the kicker from the Falcons. He got demoted from an 80 year old from Denmark. Pretty bad to be replaced by something "smelly"...

Anyways...

The kicker better play better then this... but, he IS a rookie.

 

[Coast2CoastPatsFan]

If you remember when Vinatieri left, there was a story that he was ranked internally by the Patriots as something like the 17th most valuable kicker in the league. If that was true, I'm sure it was based on combining this probability of scores against us from field position combined with his FG kicking.

I'm sure AV's age and injury risk factored into this ranking as well. He's already experiencing health issues in Indy this early into the season.

 

[stcjones]

His kick offs have been great yet I am worried about him come crunch time.

agreed.....hope he starts to get more "clutch" as he becomes more seasoned......I'm sure he'll be fine

 

[edgecy]

There will be some period of growing pains for us. AV was a legend, and we can't expect Gost to come in and immediately replace AV, for me, I won't mind at all if Gost misses a kick here and there because that's all part of the learning process.

I am interested to see him kicking in the snow, that's for sure.

 

[PATRIOT64]

If memory serves me right,Didn't Adam miss 3 Field Goals in 1 game against Buffalo in his rookie season? I distinctly remember that after pulling out my hair that day when the third one went too far right-I think we somehow still won that game,but am not sure and I think it was at Shaeffer Stadium

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

I fail to see the benefit of talking about Adam one way or the other. It just doesn't matter. He went and joined the Colts. Blame him, blame the Pats, blame Polian, blame the Krafts, blame the Lord, it is all irrelevant.

Here in 2006, we don't have the option of letting Adam kick for us. So what difference does it make what he kicked in Pittsburgh or what his field position was last year?

The comparison of rookie stats is merely to symbolize the fact that rookies can improve, even potential HOF kickers. But comparing the recent history of a guy not on our team to a complete rookie who clearly had two instances of bad protection all seems a bit contrived to me. No matter which side of the debate you are on.

Let's all move on.