Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ctpatsfan77, Jun 24, 2011.
More data shows Mayo all over the field - AFC East Blog - ESPN
I'm not a big stat guy but well done, those actually seem like meaningful stats. Unlike baseball I think football is really hard to judge by stats as so much is dependent upon what everyone else around you is doing or not doing right. Baseball is much more of an individual sport and as such easier to evaluate statistically.
That's some impressive stats. it's be great to see a breadown of where the tackles happen (like they do in basketball where they show shots taken/made).
And with information like that you'd think more offenses will have to "Hold the Mayo"...sorry I couldn't resist :bricks:
I agree. It'd be much more useful to see a more sophisticated breakout. Like some of the tackles may have occurred during gang-tackles where the opposing player was sandwiched with Mayo, OOOOHHH!!
Right. Like who initiated the contact that slowed the player down if it was a gang-tackle. But, that's why you have to love football because the eye-test seems so much more meaningful than stats on a sheet.
And glad to see you taking part of the punnage.
No matter what you're looking at, it can be described statistically. The question becomes "how complicated is that statistic?" and, following from that, "do the metrics that we currently use adequately and meaningfully describe the event?"
In baseball, as you said, the answer is usually yes, because, offensively at least, interactions are very simple. Even in baseball, though, you used to hear all of the same things that you're saying about football when it came to measuring defensive performance. The too-simple metrics that were being used actually punished fielders who had lots of of range, and of course that was wrong. That wasn't because statistics can't measure defense, though; it was because they were measuring the wrong things. It was harder to do than a simple OBP calculation, and somehow people made the leap from there to conclude that it was impossible. It wasn't, though, as the last few years of innovation in this area have shown.
The same holds true for football. The issue isn't that stats can't describe it: it's that we've been using overly simplistic, altogether insignificant stats for far, far too long. We chose ease of compilation and use over actual relevant. Football Outsiders is one of a number of sources that are slowly changing that. It will be far harder to do effectively than baseball, and the end result won't be nearly as telling, but there are always extraordinarily insightful statistics out there to be found. In fact, I can all but guarantee that a lot of them have already been developed, but individual teams have them under lock and key. There's a reason why pretty much every pro sports franchise in the country has MIT nerds locked in the basement somewhere.
The data also supports the conjecture that our pass defense is really weak in the middle of the field, particularly in the zones our linebackers cover.
I love what Mayo is doing, but I hope some of that data isn't skewed by our #2 corner situation, getting kicked off receivers backs like they're riding a bull and forcing Mayo to do cleanup.
Can't wait til Bodden is back, I think we can have a pretty damn impressive defense when we have 2 solid corners (not that I wasn't impressed with the 2nd half of last year, lets see a repeat performance for all of this season).
Sorta the 21st century version of keeping the dwarfs working in the underground mines under BB's Sauron eye
Actually, I didn't include this part, but the FO article (click through the ESPN article to get there) suggests that Mayo's "success rate"* is on the lower end for LBs, but not unacceptably so; that said, success rate tends to be fairly proportional to how close to the LOS you play (the #s for safeties, for example, are abysmal).
*FO generally defines success on an offensive play as picking up 40% of yards on first down (e.g., 4 on 1-and-10 but 6 on 1-and-15), 60% of yards on second down (e.g., 4 on 2-and-6), and 100% of yards on third or fourth down. So a successful tackle means the receiver doesn't advance the ball that far.
It also supports the idea that Jerod Mayo is a baller and should be openly celebrated as such.
Mayo > Lewis.
I'm not certain that I'd go quite that far just yet, as the comparison is extremely debatable in many ways. However, just the fact that the subject is indeed debatable bodes very well for Mayo, us fans, and everyone involved.
I totally agree at your 'baller' comment though, he has proven himself to be quite a tackling machine, a good locker room leader, and I hope he's here for many yrs to come.
I also agree with unoriginal's comment that it also points out our weakness in the middle in the secondary aspect too, and hopefully that will progressively get better this yr.
Here's a question.
How many of Mayo's run tackles were 5+ yards past the LOS?
Why are people so negative? Its a simple stat that shows he is the best at something in the nfl..why does everyone havee to pick apart everything and make it seem like its not good.
Good job Mayo.
Tackling Linebackers | ProFootballFocus.com
This seconds Football Outsiders analysis, and for all the hate PFF gets, this is actually an objective analysis.
Look at who's #1...sure, it's a much smaller sample size, but we're clearly looking at the best pair of tackling ILBs in the game, playing behind a top 3 NT.
we better extend that BEAST ASAP before that BS URFA crap comes into play. I like him sooo much losing him would be awful
Mayo is pretty solid; Spikes too. Don't really know why it seems we have trouble with the dreaded 'middle zone' of the field against the pass. I think that is more a function of the play lasting too long because of the front five getting completely engaged with blockers and the ILBs having to cover a large area for a bit too long.
Spikes was a liability in coverage last year. He bit on seemingly every play action. He was def getting better as the year went along though. Sucked to see him get suspended because he only would have improved more over those last 4 games. The holes left from spikes could explain why Mayo had so many tackles.
You may be right about spikes being weaker in coverage. I don't think that the problem stems primarily from the inside linebackers, though. Maybe Spikes struggled more than others but I think that no matter who you put there, they would be forced to play on the back foot, leading to the vacant free area that we all hated to see.
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