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Football Outsiders: Brady ranks No. 1

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by SVN, Jan 6, 2010.

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  1. SVN

    SVN Hall of Fame Poster

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  2. emoney_33

    emoney_33 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    As some suspected. TFB! :D
     
  3. sieglo

    sieglo In the Starting Line-Up

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    WWW #3 and Moss (that loafing dog) #5.
     
  4. sieglo

    sieglo In the Starting Line-Up

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    Incidentally, in 20 years when the whole world is analyzing football the way that guys like Football Outsiders are doing it today, it will be interesting to see how the Manning/Brady debate is re-analyzed and conventional wisdom is thoroughly uprooted.
     
  5. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    But how could that be when we all know because we've been told by every armchair evaluator on the planet that he's been sailing balls and inaccurate and just not himself and fixated on his binky's and not stepping into throws and holding the ball too long and forcing throws and obviously worried about his reconstructed knee and broken ribs and busted finger and new baby that he's simply not as good as he used to be and was lucky to get a third string pro bowl nod while Manning and Brees and Rivers are clearly MVP's based on their virtuoso performances coming back from nothing more than the usual unsuccessful previous seasons...

    Context is a marvelous thing. Too bad nobody pays attention and it doesn't count for much in the greater scheme of things. It's easier to just opine that we're 10-6 and inconsistent because Brady wasn't quite right and Belichick is a screwup.
     
  6. PatsSox363804

    PatsSox363804 In the Starting Line-Up

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    I saw this article earlier and already got one "but Matt Cassel went 11-5 last year!" People don't like to look too deepy into things, do they?
     
  7. Fixit

    Fixit In the Starting Line-Up

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    That can't be right. I'm sure they meant to say Peyton Manning.
     
  8. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If last year's team played this year's schedule, it would have been tough for them to win 5 games let a lone 11.
     
  9. Kasmir

    Kasmir Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    #75 Jersey

    Not completely accurate. Brady was ranked #1 in their "DYAR" stat, i.e "Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement" at 2170 yards versus Manning's 2nd place at 1932 yards. Interestingly, before the adjustment for opposing defenses, Manning was #1 at 2017 yards and Brady #6 at 1799 yards. So the claim that Brady faced the most difficult pass defenses in 17 years seems to account for the difference between popular perception and FO's stats:

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 17 DVOA Ratings

    Also note that in terms of value per play, i..e "DVOA", Brady was #2 at 44.1% to Rivers at 46.1%

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QUARTERBACKS 2009
     
  10. lamafist

    lamafist Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    I dunno, you think 20 years will be enough to dispatch with the old guard wisdom?

    I mean, Sabremetrics have been around in some form or another for 40-some-odd years, and yet you still have most of the commentators, columnists, and other sundry mediots talking in terms of RBI's, batting average, fielding %, etc. I mean, the Cy Young award still usually ends up going to the pitcher with the most "wins," even if it's clearly just because he's on a better hitting/fielding team. And baseball is a much more stat-friendly game than football.

    We've still got some of the leagues better TV analysts, like Cris Collinsworth, still thinking that the Cardinals win when they run the ball more, rather than that the Cardinals run the ball more when they're already winning.

    The conventional wisdom around the NFL is not going to change until the people dispensing it can get basic concepts like correlation and causation down.

    Besides, both Manning and Brady's stats will look pedestrian to fans 20 years from now, who are used to quarterbacks throwing to receivers whom DBs cannot touch or tackle, but must try to bring down with loud noises and harsh words.
     
  11. emoney_33

    emoney_33 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    :rofl:

    Nice
     
  12. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No Jersey Selected

    The scary thing is that he could have been better... much better.
     
  13. emoney_33

    emoney_33 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I don't know about all that
     
  14. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No Jersey Selected

    I think if you asked Brady himself, he'd tell you that he could have performed better.
     
  15. emoney_33

    emoney_33 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    not "much better", giving the schedule, lack of 3rd WR, and OL inconsistencies.
     
  16. lamafist

    lamafist Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    yes. but then again, he'd have told you the same thing in 2007.

    he's like Boxer the horse to BB's Napolean... but you know, without all the murdering of political dissidents
     
  17. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Sure he could have. He missed about six or seven sure TD's on long bombs. It depends on your definition, but, IMO, that's much better.
     
  18. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No Jersey Selected

    Heh. Good comparison. But he would just obviously be toeing the company line then. You can't get any better than setting just about every single season passing record.
     
  19. robertweathers

    robertweathers Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Maybe a few more TDs and yards, Kontra but I don't think we're looking at 07-type numbers here from TB if he hits on a few more plays...
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2010
  20. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't think so either. But, then again, I think it will be a very long time before any QB breaks that record. Keep in mind that, when I say "much better", I'm not talking '07 numbers. That's just setting your expectations way too high. I was actually one of the people that laughed at the people predicting an '07 type season from Brady before the year started. :cool:
     
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