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Football Outsiders: Brady ranks No. 1

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by SVN, Jan 6, 2010.

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  1. SVN

    SVN Rookie

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  2. emoney_33

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    As some suspected. TFB! :D
  3. sieglo

    sieglo Rookie

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    WWW #3 and Moss (that loafing dog) #5.
  4. sieglo

    sieglo Rookie

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    Incidentally, in 20 years when the whole world is analyzing football the way that guys like Football Outsiders are doing it today, it will be interesting to see how the Manning/Brady debate is re-analyzed and conventional wisdom is thoroughly uprooted.
  5. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    But how could that be when we all know because we've been told by every armchair evaluator on the planet that he's been sailing balls and inaccurate and just not himself and fixated on his binky's and not stepping into throws and holding the ball too long and forcing throws and obviously worried about his reconstructed knee and broken ribs and busted finger and new baby that he's simply not as good as he used to be and was lucky to get a third string pro bowl nod while Manning and Brees and Rivers are clearly MVP's based on their virtuoso performances coming back from nothing more than the usual unsuccessful previous seasons...

    Context is a marvelous thing. Too bad nobody pays attention and it doesn't count for much in the greater scheme of things. It's easier to just opine that we're 10-6 and inconsistent because Brady wasn't quite right and Belichick is a screwup.
  6. PatsSox363804

    PatsSox363804 Rookie

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    I saw this article earlier and already got one "but Matt Cassel went 11-5 last year!" People don't like to look too deepy into things, do they?
  7. Fixit

    Fixit Rookie

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    That can't be right. I'm sure they meant to say Peyton Manning.
  8. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If last year's team played this year's schedule, it would have been tough for them to win 5 games let a lone 11.
  9. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    Not completely accurate. Brady was ranked #1 in their "DYAR" stat, i.e "Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement" at 2170 yards versus Manning's 2nd place at 1932 yards. Interestingly, before the adjustment for opposing defenses, Manning was #1 at 2017 yards and Brady #6 at 1799 yards. So the claim that Brady faced the most difficult pass defenses in 17 years seems to account for the difference between popular perception and FO's stats:

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 17 DVOA Ratings

    Also note that in terms of value per play, i..e "DVOA", Brady was #2 at 44.1% to Rivers at 46.1%

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QUARTERBACKS 2009
  10. lamafist

    lamafist Rookie

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    I dunno, you think 20 years will be enough to dispatch with the old guard wisdom?

    I mean, Sabremetrics have been around in some form or another for 40-some-odd years, and yet you still have most of the commentators, columnists, and other sundry mediots talking in terms of RBI's, batting average, fielding %, etc. I mean, the Cy Young award still usually ends up going to the pitcher with the most "wins," even if it's clearly just because he's on a better hitting/fielding team. And baseball is a much more stat-friendly game than football.

    We've still got some of the leagues better TV analysts, like Cris Collinsworth, still thinking that the Cardinals win when they run the ball more, rather than that the Cardinals run the ball more when they're already winning.

    The conventional wisdom around the NFL is not going to change until the people dispensing it can get basic concepts like correlation and causation down.

    Besides, both Manning and Brady's stats will look pedestrian to fans 20 years from now, who are used to quarterbacks throwing to receivers whom DBs cannot touch or tackle, but must try to bring down with loud noises and harsh words.
  11. emoney_33

    emoney_33 Rookie

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    :rofl:

    Nice
  12. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The scary thing is that he could have been better... much better.
  13. emoney_33

    emoney_33 Rookie

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    I don't know about all that
  14. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think if you asked Brady himself, he'd tell you that he could have performed better.
  15. emoney_33

    emoney_33 Rookie

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    not "much better", giving the schedule, lack of 3rd WR, and OL inconsistencies.
  16. lamafist

    lamafist Rookie

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    yes. but then again, he'd have told you the same thing in 2007.

    he's like Boxer the horse to BB's Napolean... but you know, without all the murdering of political dissidents
  17. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Sure he could have. He missed about six or seven sure TD's on long bombs. It depends on your definition, but, IMO, that's much better.
  18. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Heh. Good comparison. But he would just obviously be toeing the company line then. You can't get any better than setting just about every single season passing record.
  19. robertweathers

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    Maybe a few more TDs and yards, Kontra but I don't think we're looking at 07-type numbers here from TB if he hits on a few more plays...
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2010
  20. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't think so either. But, then again, I think it will be a very long time before any QB breaks that record. Keep in mind that, when I say "much better", I'm not talking '07 numbers. That's just setting your expectations way too high. I was actually one of the people that laughed at the people predicting an '07 type season from Brady before the year started. :cool:
  21. lamafist

    lamafist Rookie

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    Ok, this is really just a semantic quibble, but I think it's a bit inaccurate -- or really, imprecise -- to say that the Pats are lacking a 3rd receiver.

    Numerically, it's true. The Pats lacked a good receiver after Moss and Welker, which would make him their third quality receiver.

    But in terms of football, the "third receiver" has traditionally often meant the slot receiver who comes onto the field and replaces the full-back when the team goes into a 3WR set.

    What the Patriots are lacking is a 2nd true wideout, a flanker who can line up opposite Moss. Welker doesn't have the separation speed or the height to play that role, and Edelman doesn't have the receiving experience to.

    That's why I think the absence has been more noticeable, despite Welker's excellence in the slot -- teams only really have to worry about 2 thirds of the field -- the far side that Moss is on, and the middle, because there's nobody on the Pats who is a threat outside the numbers on the opposite side as Moss
  22. lamafist

    lamafist Rookie

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    Hey, don't knock Boxer -- he practically built the windmill all by himself.

    All the while saying "I will work harder" and "Napoleon is always right."

    Replace "Napoleon" with "coach Belichick," and you've pretty much got Brady's mottos, too.
  23. L Bizzle

    L Bizzle Rookie

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    So how many of you would take the season Brady had this year over the one Peyton had?












    anyone?













    *cricket*
  24. emoney_33

    emoney_33 Rookie

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    If you expect perfection and think that he didn't miss anything in 2007 then I guess...
  25. emoney_33

    emoney_33 Rookie

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    I would. Peyton put up great numbers against terrible defenses. Brady put up greater numbers against terrible defenses, but had the misfortune of playing against a much much much more difficult schedule. I'd take Peyton's schedule over Brady's this year, but I'll take no one's performance over Brady.
  26. Brady_12

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    :ditto: 10 ch
  27. L Bizzle

    L Bizzle Rookie

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    Well if that's the case why so many questions about 1) your offenses tendency to shut it down in the 2nd half of most games 2) The need to diversify the offense and not be as predictable 3) Brady overthrowing, making bad throws in crunch time this year

    These all seem like legitimate gripes from fans on this board and reasons to suggest that many people I've seen here think Brady and the Offense could be doing much better.

    Besides playing the Saints, I wouldn't even suggest the Patriots had a tougher schedule than Indy at all
  28. emoney_33

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    A) Even if he could be doing a little better, he still has done better than anyone else this year

    B) Welcome to patsfans.com where even in 2007 there was a lot of negativity and griping.
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2010
  29. pao

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  30. pao

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    Ask that question again in about a month.
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