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Football Outsiders blueprint to beat the Pats

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by makewayhomer, Jan 10, 2008.

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  1. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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  2. DefenseRules

    DefenseRules Rookie

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    So where's the blueprint to beat the Jaguars?
  3. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Simple: show up.
  4. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    in BBs head
  5. Fanfrom1960

    Fanfrom1960 Rookie

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    No worries as far as Jax coaches picking that up and using it. I don't think Del Rio has the attention span to get through that thing. Belichick would, Gibbs, Bill Walsh (RIP).
  6. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    heh, I know. what's always interesting when I read these things is that it reminds me how complicated football is.

    as common fans we generally aren't privy to any (or very very little) X's and O's talk...we see sacks and TD's and cheer, but we really don't know the assignments for every player on each team, nor could we be expected to, nor would I really want to :)

    but every once in a while it's fun to see how complicated this stuff is.
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2008
  7. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x Rookie

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    I didn't read all the way through it, but it's interesting. However, no matter how good the game plan or blueprint is, you still have to execute. I think the Patriots can out-execute the Jaguars.
  8. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    of course. here is the end, since I doubt most people will get there :)

    "In football, execution is always far more important than design. The Blueprint will work, if the nickelback can match up with Welker or Gaffney, if the front four can consistently win battles, if everyone tackles well, if the safeties maintain discipline, if your own quarterback doesn’t throw a pick-six to Asante Samuel, and a hundred other “ifs.”"
  9. Grogan's neck roll

    Grogan's neck roll Rookie

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    BB said the same thing about Jax, basically, you can scheme all you want against a good running team, but in the end, someone has to make a tackle. I like the Pats record of making a tackle, or making a play, more than Jax's.
  10. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x Rookie

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    =)

    012345789
  11. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    It's not the blueprint, and some of the schemes aren't exactly something I'd suggest frequent use of.

    A lot of what he's saying through the first half of that article is already known, and teams have already been trying simular things against NE. Also, do you think BB's not intelligent enough to exploit a defensive scheme that's sending 7 and 8 men into coverage? The Patriots do have a rushing attack, and with one of your four men on the front line being a LB I think the Patriots would be able to run the ball down your throat.
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2008
  12. Born_a_Patriot

    Born_a_Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    16 Weeks
    16 Blue Prints
    16 Head coaches
    16 Defensive Coordinators
    16 Offensive Coordinators
    848 NFL Players
    Patriots Undefeated
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2008
  13. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    Technically the most successful blueprint used by other NFL teams has been a blueprint of how to lose by 3 points. They can use that too if they want to.
  14. BritPat

    BritPat Rookie

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    #54 Jersey

    Some of the replies to the article are pretty interesting.

    Especially the latest one :)
  15. Mooch

    Mooch Rookie

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    My god. If any team were dumb enough to come out in a base 3-2-6 coverage, the Pats would run 2 TE sets all day long and rip them apart. you'd see Maroney/Faulk with 150 yards rushing and guys like Watson and Welker would chew up the middle of the field on play-action mismatches.

    That's just plain stupid.
  16. jays52

    jays52 Rookie

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    The coverages would work, but that front is giving up too many pre-snap reads. Brady identifies the mike and the free safety at the LOS. They are giving that up already. The line plays smart and passes stunts as well as anyone, so you have to create holes for the rushers instead of relying on stunting and db blitzes. Risk>Reward when blitzing the pats with your db's. Hot read check dows to welker will torch you. The pressure has to come from the front seven. Also, you can't "roll coverage" to Moss against this team. It's self-defeating and stupid. You have to play an initial jam and allow the safety to bracket the z on 15-20 yard routes. That way you can still at least partially mitigate the under routes from the y. If a team simply had two guys running with Moss, Welker and Maroney would have monster days and eventually set up a wide-open 9 route from the z.

    The alignments are too common. You have to show them something they haven't seen before. Have your guys wandering around pre-snap, and come with unique blends of blitzes and coverages. You have to win first down and force them into long-distance passing situations. This would allow your pass rush to work effectively with your jams. If you can make a team one-dimensional you can at least have a shot. Even allow them to drive all day on you, just keep playing zones in the red-zone and take advantage of the smaller field. Force them into field-goal situations and hope your offense can keep up.
  17. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    As soon as NE switched to a two TE set, the defense would counter.

    They would run, but they would still need to do it out of the 3/4 WR sets.
  18. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Here is what is funny to me.
    Use the Jags as an example.

    Jack del Rio has a system that he has built a team to run. There are many different offensive and defensive schemes and philosophies used by different teams. The Jags have a system, and create a gameplan based on:
    1) Their philosophy
    2) The strengths and weakness of their players
    3) The opponent

    NO TEAM HAS EVER SUCCEEDED BY MOVING #3 UP TO #1.
    Jack del Rio is paid to coach his team, and has made about 7,000,000 philosphical football decisions to get to this point.

    Here comes some guy who NO ONE HAS OFFERED A PAYCHECK TO COACH A FOOTBALL TEAM, who thinks he knows better what the Jags should do than their coach.
    He is introducing a brand new philosphy for a game that contradicts the philosophy the team was built on. His entire philosophy is aimed at the opponent with no consideration for the skills, strengths and weaknesses of the Jag D.

    I hope the Jags read this and follow it like it were the law. We will win 73-0.
  19. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    He's acting like you can just discount their rushing attack. While it is obvious that NE's passing attack is their strength, they can run the ball too, and if you're putting LB's one-one-one against guys like Mankins, their going to get chewed up. Really, it's the type of defense that would allow Maroney to get into the second level, and I think every Patriots fan realizes that's a very bad idea for opposing teams, as his open field ability is very good. I would continue running out of single back formations though.
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2008
  20. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    Let's see, he wants to take away the deep passes to Moss, the screens and at the same time keep pressure on the QB. They seem to be mutually exclusive as Romeo said, "pick your poison"
    If they do that, I can see Brady picking them apart with his hot reads all day long.....and when Maroney/Faulk run, getting 5-6 ypc.....
  21. Mooch

    Mooch Rookie

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    Let 'em counter. You could then go spread formation and still win one-on-one matchups with Watson and Faulk against slower DBs and LBs.

    Gimmick defense is NOT the way to go against the Pats. IMO, you go with a standard 4-3 and play a lot of "angry man" at the line and take your chances on a missed O-Line assignment. All this exotic gameplanning is just choosing a different poison.
  22. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    Exactly, and Brady's hit Moss on some bombs out of single receiver and two TE sets, as well.
  23. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    An interesting read and daunting to an amateur like me. But, I'm just gonna suppose that there's a chance, just a chance mind you, that there isn't anything in the article that Bill Belichick hasn't already though about from four different angles.
  24. NEPatriot

    NEPatriot Banned

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    we are going to see 2 more blueprints after this sat.
  25. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    I think people are being a little sensitive here.

    the point of the article isn't "how to shut out the Pats" it's "how to slow them down and hold them to around 20".

    lots of the ideas in the article could work, but obv. nothing is foolproof
  26. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    the Jags - or any team - would be thrilled with us running the ball 25-30 times. even if we average 6 yards a carry, that's still better than what Brady averages on an attempt.
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2008
  27. flasox27

    flasox27 Rookie

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    If Belichick has read the article which I assume he has, he has already planned a counter attack. The one thing Belichick isn't is stagnant.
  28. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    That might sound good to you, but if you're D-line consist of three linemen (at least one could be out of positon), and one LB (also playing out of positon), do you really think their going to fair well against Mankins, Light, Koppen, Neal, and Kaczur? Some of those defensive schemes are just asking to be gashed by the run, and NE has a fast RB who's good in space. I'm willing to bet you'd see at least three or four 20-30 yard runs if a defense was to use that base against NE.
  29. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    no, they won't fair well. but no defense has faired well vs this team, except the Colts (with Freeney).

    the question is if they could hold the Pats to 20ish instead of high 30's by forcing them to run more and/or limiting big plays
  30. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    I know that's the idea. What I'm saying is you'd be getting gashed by the run, and could give up large chunks of yardage, so the potential for NE scoring a lot of points would still exist.
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