I've been reading through the 2010 Football Outsiders Almanac, and they're pretty high on the Pats this year. The mean projections have the Pats as #3 in the NFL behind the Ravens and Colts: 2010 Mean Projection: 10.3 wins On the Clock (0-3): 0% Loserville (4-6): 4% Mediocrity (7-8): 18% Playoff Contender (9-10): 33% Super Bowl Contender (11+): 45% Projected Average Opponent: 4.5% (7th) the highest mean projection is 11.6: basically, the idea is that everyone who finishes with over 11 wins outperformed expectations, so 10.3 is quite good as a baseline. The closest teams behind us are the Steelers (9.9), Jets (9.8), Falcons (9.6), and Packers (9.4). I know that there's a lot of debate on this board for how applicable these types of statistics really are, and I think that this year's Patriots team represents an ideal data point. While most reports that you'll read will speak of the Pats as an above average team, FO's projections place the Pats solidly in the NFL elite (this was before the Ty Warren injury news, I have to wonder if that changes anything). Personally, I'm pumped. I'm a huge FO fan, and after reading this writeup, it reinforces a lot of what I already thought about the Pats, and also has me rethinking the Jets (a little more worried about them) and the Dolphins (a little less). Definitely an awesome read, I'd recommend it to everyone.