Fixing the lack of pash rush: scheme, draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter King!)

[rsd]

For the first time in a long time, I actually found some interesting insight by Peter King today.

Basically he showed that it is very difficult to draft a passrusher that makes a difference. In the last 2 years, no guys in the first two rounds have had more than 8 sacks TOTAL: Can't anyone here rush the passer?

So where does that leave the Pats? Their ability to draft well not-withstanding, this definitely does not bode well for our hope of getting a stud pass-rusher in the draft. And if anything even if you get one, it'll likely take him a couple of years to develop.

So where does that leave us? A change in scheme? A free agent?

Unfortunately I think the FA route is less likely due to the whole CBA/Uncapped year mess.

This is all just my interpretation but it seems rather sobering. To me the best chance is simply having some of the young guys continue to develop and to step up.

Thoughts?

 

[WhiZa]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

Let's draft a first round corner and go into the season with 10. You know half of them will end up on IR

 

[BTTA]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

I wonder what that list will look like in the third year for each of these players. It may just take that long. Peter King won't provide that level of analysis, you can be sure.

The one recent development that may shape this is the zone blitz, where some of these guys are acting as rush decoys and dropping into coverage. That creates fewer opportunities for individuals, but more sacks, as the DB's and inside LB's get into it more often.

 

[DarrylS]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

Very sobering article.. further compounded by the fact that something like 23 of our 53 are udfa's....

Think first of all need a new D Coordinator, not all that impressed with Pees... that would be a start, and another year of maturity for our young secondary would be helpful...

Also looks like Mayo is not his old self, and have to wonder about injury to his knee..

There is also some deadwood... AD for one, may be time to cut our losses...

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

I wonder what that list will look like in the third year for each of these players. It may just take that long. Peter King won't provide that level of analysis, you can be sure.

The one recent development that may shape this is the zone blitz, where some of these guys are acting as rush decoys and dropping into coverage. That creates fewer opportunities for individuals, but more sacks, as the DB's and inside LB's get into it more often.

Take a look at the top 15 sack leaders in the league..

1,Elvis Dumervil,DEN,25-14.0.............8.5 year 1, 126th
2,Jared Allen,MIN,27-12.5.................9.5 year 1, 126th
3,Will Smith,NOR,28-10.0..................7.5 year 1, 18th
4,James Harrison,PIT,31-10.0............8.5 year 5, UFA
5,Robert Mathis,IND,28-9.5...............10.5 year 2, 138th
6,Dwight Freeney,IND,29-9.5.............13.5 year 2, 11th
7,Trent Cole,PHI,27-9.5....................5.0 year 1, 8.0 year 2, 146th
8,Andre Carter,WAS,30-9.0...............6.5 year 1, 12.5 year 2, 7th
9,DeMarcus Ware,DAL,27-8.0..............8.0, year 1, 11th
10,Antwan Odom,CIN,28-8.0..............8.0, year 4, 57th
11,Julius Peppers,CAR,29-7.5..............12.0, year 1, 2nd
12,Aaron Schobel,BUF,32-7.0............6.5, year 1, 46th
13,Joey Porter,MIA,32-7.0..................10.5, year 2, 73rd
14,Brian Orakpo,WAS,23-7.0.................rookie, 13th
15,Darnell Dockett,ARI,28-7.0...............9.0, 4th, 64th

Ave age: 28 yrs, 3mos. I didn't research # of years in the league but I'll asssume its around 5-6.

Pass rushers need experience first, then the talent and technique take over. Its not just blowing by guys.

 

[BelichickFan]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

Merriman had 10 sacks as a rookie.
Ware had 8 sacks as a rookie.
Wimbley had 11 sacks as a rookie.

They didn't peak as rookies but they made a significant difference.

As noted above, Orakpo has 7 sacks his rookie season.

This is just like saying rookie QB or WR don't have a big impact. They don't have a big impact if you choose to exclude those that do. Is it likely ? No. Is it 50-50 ? No. Is it reasonably possible ? Absolutely.

 

[WhiZa]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

Take a look at the top 15 sack leaders in the league..

1,Elvis Dumervil,DEN,25-14.0
2,Jared Allen,MIN,27-12.5,
3,Will Smith,NOR,28-10.0
4,James Harrison,PIT,31-10.0
5,Robert Mathis,IND,28-9.5
6,Dwight Freeney,IND,29-9.5
7,Trent Cole,PHI,27-9.5
8,Andre Carter,WAS,30-9.0
9,DeMarcus Ware,DAL,27-8.0
10,Antwan Odom,CIN,28-8.0
11,Julius Peppers,CAR,29-7.5
12,Aaron Schobel,BUF,32-7.0
13,Joey Porter,MIA,32-7.0
14,Brian Orakpo,WAS,23-7.0
15,Darnell Dockett,ARI,28-7.0

Ave age: 28 yrs, 3mos. I didn't research # of years in the league but I'll asssume its around 5-6.

Pass rushers need experience first, then the talent and technique take over. Its not just blowing by guys.

The stats are somewhat flawed. Players on that list have been in the league 5-6 years, but have also been getting to the QB the entire time as well. Look at anyone one of those guys, and once they were inserted into the starting lineup (even as rookies) they all have 8+ sacks a year.

 

[WhiZa]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

Merriman had 10 sacks as a rookie.
Ware had 8 sacks as a rookie.
Wimbley had 11 sacks as a rookie.

They didn't peak as rookies but they made a significant difference.

As noted above, Orakpo has 7 sacks his rookie season.

This is just like saying rookie QB or WR don't have a big impact. They don't have a big impact if you choose to exclude those that do. Is it likely ? No. Is it 50-50 ? No. Is it reasonably possible ? Absolutely.

One thing you don't see is finding a rookie outside of the first round (or even late first round) who is going to perform like that.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

looks like part of the problem is that too many players are being miscast as 3-4 players. an obvious side effect due to the number of teams playing 3-4 now.

I also believe that with all the 3-4 popularity in recent years, that OC's have begun to catch up with the flexibility of the scheme. the one truth has alway been that things have always evolved to catch up to any idea. otherwise, all teams would be using the 46 on defense and the run and shoot on offense.

there comes a time when you gotta go back to the drawing board and come up with some new twists, or you will get burned

 

[shatch62]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

I wonder what that list will look like in the third year for each of these players. It may just take that long. Peter King won't provide that level of analysis, you can be sure.

The one recent development that may shape this is the zone blitz, where some of these guys are acting as rush decoys and dropping into coverage. That creates fewer opportunities for individuals, but more sacks, as the DB's and inside LB's get into it more often.

I looked back at the third year players (2007 draft) and it is even worse. Only taking the DE/OLB here is waht you have
Pick # NFL Team Player Position College
4 Tampa Bay Gaines Adams Defensive End Clemson
8 Atlanta Jamaal Anderson Defensive End Arkansas
13 St. Louis Adam Carriker Defensive End Nebraska
15 Pittsburgh Lawrence Timmons Linebacker Florida State
17 Denver Jarvis Moss Defensive End Florida
26 Dallas Anthony Spencer Defensive End Purdue

Round two
Pick # NFL Team Player Position College
46 Pittsburgh LaMarr Woodley Defensive End Michigan
54 Kansas City Turk McBride Defensive End Tennessee
56 Denver Tim Crowder Defensive End Texas
57 Philadelphia Victor Abiamiri Defensive End Notre Dame
58 Detroit Ikaika Alama-Francis Defensive End Hawaiʻi
62 Chicago Dan Bazuin Defensive End Central Michigan

 

[sieglo]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

Sean Crable is the answer to our prayers.

 

[satz]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

Sean Crable is the answer to our prayers.

You made me smile lol

 

[Phokus]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

sacks are kind of overrated, check profootball focus, demarcus ware leads qb pressures and by a WIDE margin

 

[Nikolai]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

sacks are kind of overrated, check profootball focus, demarcus ware leads qb pressures and by a WIDE margin

Some truth to this. Sacks are great, but pressures that force the QB into mistakes are potentially more valuable. Would you rather have a sack or an interception?

 

[BTTA]

Re: Fixing the lack of pash rush: scheme, draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

So from these posts it would appear that there are between zero and two pass rushers in the draft each year who have immediate production, and it takes the remaining top rushers four to six years to develop. And "develop" means either developing their pass rushing skills enough to be a top sacker, or to learn their position well enough to be given enough playing time to have the opportunity to get sacks.

 

[MrNathanDrake]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

Take a look at the top 15 sack leaders in the league..

1,Elvis Dumervil,DEN,25-14.0
2,Jared Allen,MIN,27-12.5,
3,Will Smith,NOR,28-10.0
4,James Harrison,PIT,31-10.0
5,Robert Mathis,IND,28-9.5
6,Dwight Freeney,IND,29-9.5
7,Trent Cole,PHI,27-9.5
8,Andre Carter,WAS,30-9.0
9,DeMarcus Ware,DAL,27-8.0
10,Antwan Odom,CIN,28-8.0
11,Julius Peppers,CAR,29-7.5
12,Aaron Schobel,BUF,32-7.0
13,Joey Porter,MIA,32-7.0
14,Brian Orakpo,WAS,23-7.0
15,Darnell Dockett,ARI,28-7.0

Ave age: 28 yrs, 3mos. I didn't research # of years in the league but I'll asssume its around 5-6.

Pass rushers need experience first, then the talent and technique take over. Its not just blowing by guys.

Exactly why we should've picked a big pass rusher 2 years ago, or atleast this past year.

Even if we get a stud OLB this draft itll take a year or three to develop

 

[goldenaleus]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

sacks are kind of overrated, check profootball focus, demarcus ware leads qb pressures and by a WIDE margin

Logical statement. I'd rather have the pressure and possibly a pick for a potential TD rather than a sack master.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

The stats are somewhat flawed. Players on that list have been in the league 5-6 years, but have also been getting to the QB the entire time as well. Look at anyone one of those guys, and once they were inserted into the starting lineup (even as rookies) they all have 8+ sacks a year.

WhiZa- thanks for correcting me. I went back and checked out when each player was drafted and the year that they made a significant contribution to their team's pass rush. You are spot on. I've updated post #5 w/ the facts.

My assessment- Other than James Harrison, you have zero chance of getting a good pass rusher after round 4.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

Merriman had 10 sacks as a rookie.
Ware had 8 sacks as a rookie.
Wimbley had 11 sacks as a rookie.

They didn't peak as rookies but they made a significant difference.

As noted above, Orakpo has 7 sacks his rookie season.

This is just like saying rookie QB or WR don't have a big impact. They don't have a big impact if you choose to exclude those that do. Is it likely ? No. Is it 50-50 ? No. Is it reasonably possible ? Absolutely.

But remeber he's too stiff to play here, Barwin on the other hand...

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: Fixing the Lack of Pash Rush- Scheme, Draft, FA? (with actual insight by Peter Ki

Very sobering article.. further compounded by the fact that something like 23 of our 53 are udfa's....

This is false. Only 11 of the 53 man roster are UDFAs. Only if you start counting all the guys on IR and on the practice squad do you climb higher.

Think first of all need a new D Coordinator, not all that impressed with Pees... that would be a start, and another year of maturity for our young secondary would be helpful...

Also looks like Mayo is not his old self, and have to wonder about injury to his knee..

There is also some deadwood... AD for one, may be time to cut our losses...

I think that BB might make a change at Defensive Coordinator, though not likely. First and foremost, BB put Pees in an untenable situation this year with the trading of Seymour and Vrabel. Second, the loss of Bruschi added to the defensive leadership woes. I know Bruschi has spoken highly of Mayo's leadership, but Mayo is clearly struggling with all the added responsibilities.. Third, as was mentioned, there are 6 new defensive starters this year plus numerous new back-ups. That sort of change over takes awhile to gel. People seem to forget the growing pains the Pats went through in 2001.

I'd like to see the Pats DBs a bit more aggressive, but that comes with time and experience for guys like Wilhite, Wheatley, Butler and Chung.

The Pats need to add at least 2 dynamic players at OLB/DE. Players who can above average at rushing the passer, setting the edge on the run and dropping back into coverage. Or a player who can do at least the 1st two. That will help the Pats defense because they will be able to do more rushing from different angles with their LBers/DEs. A player like that will have to be developed from the draft (which will take most of the year) or added via free agency. Its going to be interesting to see who the top 8 teams end up being and which free agents they won't be able to sign...