Finding Brady's next "Go-To" player (part 1)....

[SeanBruschi54]

Since the panic of only Troy Brown and Bam Childress returning from our WR's last year in has become fairly obvious that Brady is not timing well with his new receivers whether it be overthrowing or under-throwing or just plain missing them completely.

The goal of these threads over the next several weeks is too find out who Brady trusts more in certain situations while figuring out who he is targeting how often and when.

So let us begin with week 1 before we head into the next week.

(mind you week 1 we had a total of 3 WR's activated for the game so the results from a WR standpoint might be skewed for a couple of weeks.)

Caldwell 2-4 (Targeted 17.4% of the time)
T Brown 2-3 (targeted 13.05%)
Watson 3-7 (T = 30.05%, also targeted 75% of 3rd down passes)
Graham 1-3 (T = 10.35%)
Maroney 0-2 (T = 6.9%)
Dillon 2-2 (T= 6.9%)
Faulk 1-2 (T=6.9%, also targeted for 25% of 3rd down passes)

Easily in week 1 we can see that Watson was the main targeted man.

Week 2 (Doug Gabriel and Chad Jackson were active)3.33 10

T Brown: 4-8 (T = 26.64%, also with 30% of 3rd downs)
Caldwell:2-3 (T = 9.9%, also with 30% of the 3rd downs)
Jackson: 2-3 (T = 9.9%)
Gabriel: 0-3 (T = 9.9% also with 10% of 3rd downs)
Watson:3-6 ( T = 19.98%)
Graham:1-1 (T= 3.3%)
Thomas:1-2 (T = 6.6%)
Faulk:2-4 (T = 13.32% also with 30% of 3rd downs)


In the second week you see Watson's targets and third down targets drop considerably while Brady tries to pass around the ball to 4 WR's 3TE's and a RB.


I'll continue with more stats in the morning.

 

[maverick4]

Interesting stats. I think By week 10, Chad Jackson will emerge as the main option, with Watson and Brown as the secondary options. Then, Caldwell and Faulk will get around 4 touches a game from Brady.

 

[RayClay]

He's looking fairly comfortable with Jackson and caldwell IMO. Hitting them in stride. It'll come.

 

[SeanBruschi54]

I dont want to put all of my eggs in the Chad Jackson basket just yet.

Brady is still going to need time to adjust to his new surrounding players.

I predict by week 6 we'll have a much better understanding of who might be Bradys targets.

 

[PATRIOT64]

It may be way too early for this evaluation after just 1 game but I say Gabriel will be a bust...A second coming of David Terrell or maybe an Andre Davis....He looked sluggish in routes and his speed was not there...he had defenders within a foot of him everytime the ball headed his way..His early route running simply sucked and he looked clumsy too me,Maybe cause he was in the pathetic Raiders offense,A team that is odds on to become the first 0-16 team ever,Hes got a LOOONNGG way to go...On the other hand Chad looked like he will be a top flight WR in time,Kind of reminds me of another 'Rookie' named Chad...Yeah,That guy on the bengals

 

[patsox23]

It may be way too early for this evaluation after just 1 game but I say Gabriel will be a bust...A second coming of David Terrell or maybe an Andre Davis....He looked sluggish in routes and his speed was not there...he had defenders within a foot of him everytime the ball headed his way..His early route running simply sucked and he looked clumsy too me,Maybe cause he was in the pathetic Raiders offense,A team that is odds on to become the first 0-16 team ever,Hes got a LOOONNGG way to go...On the other hand Chad looked like he will be a top flight WR in time,Kind of reminds me of another 'Rookie' named Chad...Yeah,That guy on the bengals

I'm not saying Gabriel is the 2nd coming, and he pi$$ed me off with his lack of effort in breaking up the INT, but "his speed was not there????" What game were you watching? Part of the problem on the pick was that Brady underestimated the guy's speed.

Relax with your proclomations of "bust." Give the guy a break from baseless hunches. We'll see soon enough.

 

[Mosi Moose]

For at least this year, i'm not sure he's gonna find a new "go-to" guy. I think he feels most confident/comfortable with Troy and Ben right now, but as the season goes on, I really think that you'll see the "attempts" spread out. I also think that Dave Thomas will get into the action--as could Garrett Mills--but I'm thinking by week 7-9, not yet. For now, For the first 3-5 games, I expect much of what we saw on Sunday--except it'll get cleaner and crisper each week.

 

[Kdo5]

I think Chad Jackson was excited to get on the field in a Pats uniform and he gave it his all on some of his catches.

 

[shmessy]

I'm not saying Gabriel is the 2nd coming, and he pi$$ed me off with his lack of effort in breaking up the INT, but "his speed was not there????" What game were you watching? Part of the problem on the pick was that Brady underestimated the guy's speed.

Relax with your proclomations of "bust." Give the guy a break from baseless hunches. We'll see soon enough.

I agree with Patsox23. The Raider fans were po'd to see Gabriel go.

Also, Brady's pump fake on the INT allowed Gabriell to outrun where Brady thought he would be. Anyone can see that ball was way underthrown. Brady just doesn't have the timing down with Gabriel. That wasn't Doug's fault.

#85 is a steal for a 5th rounder. Don't drink it yet - let it breath

 

[shmessy]

I'm not saying Gabriel is the 2nd coming, and he pi$$ed me off with his lack of effort in breaking up the INT, but "his speed was not there????" What game were you watching? Part of the problem on the pick was that Brady underestimated the guy's speed.

Relax with your proclomations of "bust." Give the guy a break from baseless hunches. We'll see soon enough.

I agree with Patsox23. The Raider fans were po'd to see Gabriel go.

Also, Brady's pump fake on the INT allowed Gabriell to outrun where Brady thought he would be. Anyone can see that ball was way underthrown. Brady just doesn't have the timing down with Gabriel. That wasn't Doug's fault.

#85 is a steal for a 5th rounder. Don't drink it yet - let it breath.

 

[SeanBruschi54]

I'm trying to edit my first post so i can make more changes to it but what happened? I cant edit anymore now?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'm trying to edit my first post so i can make more changes to it but what happened? I cant edit anymore now?

You have eight hours after posting to make your edits.

 

[RayClay]

It may be way too early for this evaluation after just 1 game but I say Gabriel will be a bust...A second coming of David Terrell or maybe an Andre Davis....He looked sluggish in routes and his speed was not there...he had defenders within a foot of him everytime the ball headed his way..His early route running simply sucked and he looked clumsy too me,Maybe cause he was in the pathetic Raiders offense,A team that is odds on to become the first 0-16 team ever,Hes got a LOOONNGG way to go...On the other hand Chad looked like he will be a top flight WR in time,Kind of reminds me of another 'Rookie' named Chad...Yeah,That guy on the bengals

D'ya think?

 

[mgcolby]

It may be way too early for this evaluation after just 1 game but I say Gabriel will be a bust...A second coming of David Terrell or maybe an Andre Davis....He looked sluggish in routes and his speed was not there...he had defenders within a foot of him everytime the ball headed his way..His early route running simply sucked and he looked clumsy too me,Maybe cause he was in the pathetic Raiders offense,A team that is odds on to become the first 0-16 team ever,Hes got a LOOONNGG way to go...On the other hand Chad looked like he will be a top flight WR in time,Kind of reminds me of another 'Rookie' named Chad...Yeah,That guy on the bengals

Have you watched a Raiders game over the past few seasons? The guy is pretty good and he did that with less than stellar QB's throwing him the ball.

 

[zippo59]

It may be way too early for this evaluation after just 1 game but I say Gabriel will be a bust...A second coming of David Terrell or maybe an Andre Davis....He looked sluggish in routes and his speed was not there...he had defenders within a foot of him everytime the ball headed his way..His early route running simply sucked and he looked clumsy too me,Maybe cause he was in the pathetic Raiders offense,A team that is odds on to become the first 0-16 team ever,Hes got a LOOONNGG way to go...On the other hand Chad looked like he will be a top flight WR in time,Kind of reminds me of another 'Rookie' named Chad...Yeah,That guy on the bengals

I'm not trying to be a jerk but this post is so premature that even admitting it was premature in it doesn't make it ok.

 

[Seymour93]

It may be way too early for this evaluation after just 1 game but I say Gabriel will be a bust...A second coming of David Terrell or maybe an Andre Davis....He looked sluggish in routes and his speed was not there...he had defenders within a foot of him everytime the ball headed his way..His early route running simply sucked and he looked clumsy too me,Maybe cause he was in the pathetic Raiders offense,A team that is odds on to become the first 0-16 team ever,Hes got a LOOONNGG way to go...On the other hand Chad looked like he will be a top flight WR in time,Kind of reminds me of another 'Rookie' named Chad...Yeah,That guy on the bengals

Come on, it was Gabriel's first game as a Patriot. He's still learning his new playbook and hasn't yet gotten on a rhythm with Brady; these things take time. Remember David Givens' NFL baptism? He dropped a ball that would've won us the game against the Jets in '02, but he turned out alright for us.

 

[lobster]

Belichick made a big point about Jackson's sideline catch, saying."Chad made a good play on the ball, he had maybe a half a step there and he kind of used his body there to squeeze the corner out and get in there and take it away from him a little bit."

He said of the end zone catch that a "lot of players could have made that play - run in the end zone and nobody is around them and catch the ball. That's great, but that one down the sideline was a much tougher play."

Belichick is telling those of you posted that Jackson was the new Bethel Johnson that Jackson is a much better receiver than Bethel Johnson was.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Jackson the new bethel johnson?? Whoever said that needs their head examined or their eyes checked or both. Chad makes the tough and the easy catches and he has big play speed. Well the Pats haven't had that in a while. He's faster than Branch going downfield imo.

Wait till Brady starts getting comfortable with CJ. I think he'll be seeing even more passes coming his way next week.

 

[SeanBruschi54]

(Haven't been able to post the updated stats so sorry for the delay)



Since the panic of only Troy Brown and Bam Childress returning from our WR's last year in has become fairly obvious that Brady is not timing well with his new receivers whether it be overthrowing or under-throwing or just plain missing them completely.

The goal of these threads over the next several weeks is too find out who Brady trusts more in certain situations while figuring out who he is targeting how often and when.

So let us begin with week 1 before we head into the next week.

(mind you week 1 we had a total of 3 WR's activated for the game so the results from a WR standpoint might be skewed for a couple of weeks.)

Caldwell 2-4 (Targeted 17.4% of the time)
T Brown 2-3 (targeted 13.05%)
Watson 3-7 (T = 30.05%, also targeted 75% of 3rd down passes)
Graham 1-3 (T = 10.35%)
Maroney 0-2 (T = 6.9%)
Dillon 2-2 (T= 6.9%)
Faulk 1-2 (T=6.9%, also targeted for 25% of 3rd down passes)

Easily in week 1 we can see that Watson was the main targeted man.

***Red Zone percentages (including anything thrown within the 20)
Brown: 1-1 (T = 25% of targets, Touchdown)
Graham: 0-2 (T= 50% of targets, dropped TD and dropped reception within the 10)
Faulk:1-1 (T= 25% of targets, Touchdown)



Week 2 (Doug Gabriel and Chad Jackson were active)3.33 10

T Brown: 4-8 (T = 26.64%, also with 30% of 3rd downs)
Caldwell:2-3 (T = 9.9%, also with 30% of the 3rd downs)
Jackson: 2-3 (T = 9.9%)
Gabriel: 0-3 (T = 9.9% also with 10% of 3rd downs)
Watson:3-6 ( T = 19.98%)
Graham:1-1 (T= 3.3%)
Thomas:1-2 (T = 6.6%)
Faulk:2-4 (T = 13.32% also with 30% of 3rd downs)

In the second week you see Watson's targets and third down targets drop considerably while Brady tries to pass around the ball to 4 WR's 3TE's and a RB.

***Red Zone percentages (including anything thrown within the 20)
Gabriel: 0-2 (T= 40% including 50% in the endzone)
Caldwell: 1-1 (T = 20%) Play was not into the endzone but a key into getting the first down
Watson: 0-1 (T = 20%) Not an endzone opportunity but a contributing play
Jackson: 1-1 (T = 20% includes 50% in endzone) Touchdown

***Year to date Targeted Percentages***

Caldwell 4-7 (T = 13.44%)
T Brown 6-11 (T= 21.12%)
Watson 6-13 (T= 24.96%)
Graham 2-4 (T=7.68%)
Maroney 0-2 (T= 3.84%)
Dillon 2-2 (T= 3.84%)
Faulk 3-6 (T = 11.52%)
Jackson: 2-3 (T = 5.76%)
Gabriel: 0-3 (T = 5.76%)
Thomas:1-2 (T = 3.84%)

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

***Red Zone percentages (including anything thrown within the 20)
Brown: 1-1 (T = 25% of targets, Touchdown)
Graham: 0-2 (T= 50% of targets, dropped TD and dropped reception within the 10) Odd, when I looked at the replays I see Tommy missing Grahambo in the end zoneand one hopping the ball to him inside the ten - it is even noticable to Phil Simms and Jim Nantz on replay.
Faulk:1-1 (T= 25% of targets, Touchdown) ***Red Zone percentages (including anything thrown within the 20)
Gabriel: 0-2 (T= 40% including 50% in the endzone)
Caldwell: 1-1 (T = 20%) Play was not into the endzone but a key into getting the first down
Watson: 0-1 (T = 20%) Not an endzone opportunity but a contributing play Jets game right? Watson standing in the front corner of the end zone, Tommy underthrowing the ball? Or was there another red zone pass I'm forgetting?
Jackson: 1-1 (T = 20% includes 50% in endzone) Touchdown

Your premise is interesting, are you going back over the tape to check the plays or taking your comments from the live coverage? That might explain the aberrations I noted.