Filling holes

[Oswlek]

I actually am referencing the last three seasons, starting from the day that Brett Farve exposed the deep middle of our defense. I don't think you quite grasp just how bad our OLBs really are. TBC had 5 sacks, Ninkovitch had 4, Cunningham had 1, Guyton had 3 but he played inside most of the year. The leader was Wright a nose tackle, with 5.5. Our entire OLB core had 9 sacks total.

I hate being negative, but this hasn't been a case of the defense having a down year, our pass rush has sucked for years now. I keep hearing about how Belichick is looking for that 6'5", 270 OLB and can't find them and that may be true, but that Pats cannot win without some semblence of an outside pass rush, and making excuses for not getting one is insane.

BB had 2 firsts, two seconds and two thirds going into the last draft. He passed multiple times on the best pass rusher in the draft, he refused to trade up to get a pass rusher, and the one he took was a 6th rounder who is training camp fodder. The Pats were ranked 32 in 3rd down percentage allowed, but they were ranked 16 in overall yards per attempt. ( Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Final 2010 Defensive Hog Index ), what that tells me is that the defense did a good job on fiorst and second downs, but sucked on third downs, when teams usually have to pass the ball and when outside pressure is vital to success.

But then again, what the hell do I know. I'm just some schmuck who works for a living.

No, I'm pretty comfortable with my understanding about how the OLBs played. In fact, I even agreed that the 2010 unit was a significant part of the problem.

Where we disagree is that you seem to believe that how a player performs in his first season as a starter (Nink) or his first season overall (Jermaine) is how he will perform for the rest of his career, whereas history has proven guys need at least 2 year before developing.

As for this:

what that tells me is that the defense did a good job on fiorst and second downs, but sucked on third downs, when teams usually have to pass the ball and when outside pressure is vital to success.

Why wouldn't NE's terrible nickle, LB and #2 CB coverage have just as much impact on that stat?

 

[E Belichick Unum]

No, I'm pretty comfortable with my understanding about how the OLBs played. In fact, I even agreed that the 2010 unit was a significant part of the problem.

Where we disagree is that you seem to believe that how a player performs in his first season as a starter (Nink) or his first season overall (Jermaine) is how he will perform for the rest of his career, whereas history has proven guys need at least 2 year before developing.

As for this:



Why wouldn't NE's terrible nickle, LB and #2 CB coverage have just as much impact on that stat?

If Ninkovich and Cunningham come through for the Pats this year, then another young pass rusher would have made the Pats that much better, but neither one of those player has ever done it at this level before and they showed nothing that would make me believe that they will do it this year.

BB is a great coach, but just an OK GM. For a guy who went for it on 4th and two, he refuses to invest a second round pick on the most glaring need his team has. You can tell me how there wasn't any talent there, but the Pats had 7 picks in the first 100, that is the time to take a gamble.

BTW, their secondary was really improved last year. Merriwhether may be a turd, but he hits and so does Chung, and so does Page. It was encouraging to see passes dropped by recievers on deep crossing routs, a direct result of having to look out for the hit everybody thought was coming.

 

[Oswlek]

If Ninkovich and Cunningham come through for the Pats this year, then another young pass rusher would have made the Pats that much better, but neither one of those player has ever done it at this level before and they showed nothing that would make me believe that they will do it this year.

BB is a great coach, but just an OK GM. For a guy who went for it on 4th and two, he refuses to invest a second round pick on the most glaring need his team has. You can tell me how there wasn't any talent there, but the Pats had 7 picks in the first 100, that is the time to take a gamble.

BTW, their secondary was really improved last year. Merriwhether may be a turd, but he hits and so does Chung, and so does Page. It was encouraging to see passes dropped by recievers on deep crossing routs, a direct result of having to look out for the hit everybody thought was coming.

You are still looking backward. What did Colvin and Vrabel do their rookie season to prove they'd be 10 sack guys in the future? Again, you still can't answer these questions:

1) If history has proven that it takes 2-7 years before someone is effective as an OLB - and most prove nothing in their first years - why are you so quick to abandon two first year starters?

2) Considering the above, how is adding another rookie OLB a guarantee of pass rush improvement, especially when you consider that the vast majority of them flop?

We all want NE to have bookend stud OLBs. But rookies are no guarantee of success (and a highly risky investment) and guys take time to figure it out. Beyond all of that, NE did in fact select an OLB convert who has physical measures equal to the top names in the draft. And BB has show more willingness to snag a guy than give him credit for with two top 100 selections at the position in the last 4 drafts. Going into 2011, I had both RB and OT far ahead of OLB on the need scale and CB/S only slightly behind.

With regard to the secondary, I'm not sure what team you were watching last year. Chung started out great but got hurt and had to slide to nickleback. McCourty was a Godsend, but Arrington having to take the spot opposite him due to injuries and Butler's failings was a problem all year. I'm thinking you are seeing what you want to see in order to defend your position about OLBs being the main problem area.

As for the "OK GM" comment, that has been gone over ad infinim and if you still choose to hold that opinion despite mountains of evidence to prove otherwise then I guess this is a pointless discussion.

 

[Oswlek]

BTW, I completely agree that NE should have tossed a little more OLB crap against the wall from 2004-2008. Not only did they have a lot of swings and misses, but taking so long to begin the transition is the root of the problem. Had NE snagged the equivalent of Nink/Cunningham in 2006, then they could have gotten 3 years of training before being leaned on. That way all the bumps and bruises of their growth wouldn't be out on display every game.

 

[Professor Frink]

I think Belichick's perspective on edge players makes a lot of sense from an economic point of view. Pass rush is important, no one is arguing this, but that doesn't mean that it isn't over valued in the NFL.

You only have so much capital you can invest into players, and that capital takes the form of draft picks and cap dollars. Any amount of capital you invest in one area takes away from what you can invest in another. So it's imperative that you get good return on your investment (ROI) or else building a winner becomes that much more difficult.

Aquiring pass rushers is going to cost you a lot of capital. The players with the most pass rush potential always get taken early in the draft, and anyone who hits free agency is going to cost you a lot of cap dollars.

Simply put, it's hard to get a good ROI in pass rushers. Thus it makes sense to be cautious about investing capital into that area.

Further compounding the problem is that in Belichick's defense he needs edge players that can do more than just rush the passer. Obviously every defense needs players who can put pressure on the QB, but if that is all you can do then you won't be much better than a role player here.

Now, it might be fair to criticize Belichick for employing a scheme that doesn't maximize the potential of guys like Dwight Freeny and Clay Mathews, but at the end of the day you can't really argue with the success he has had with said scheme.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

You are still looking backward. What did Colvin and Vrabel do their rookie season to prove they'd be 10 sack guys in the future? Again, you still can't answer these questions:

1) If history has proven that it takes 2-7 years before someone is effective as an OLB - and most prove nothing in their first years - why are you so quick to abandon two first year starters?

2) Considering the above, how is adding another rookie OLB a guarantee of pass rush improvement, especially when you consider that the vast majority of them flop?

We all want NE to have bookend stud OLBs. But rookies are no guarantee of success (and a highly risky investment) and guys take time to figure it out. Beyond all of that, NE did in fact select an OLB convert who has physical measures equal to the top names in the draft. And BB has show more willingness to snag a guy than give him credit for with two top 100 selections at the position in the last 4 drafts. Going into 2011, I had both RB and OT far ahead of OLB on the need scale and CB/S only slightly behind.

With regard to the secondary, I'm not sure what team you were watching last year. Chung started out great but got hurt and had to slide to nickleback. McCourty was a Godsend, but Arrington having to take the spot opposite him due to injuries and Butler's failings was a problem all year. I'm thinking you are seeing what you want to see in order to defend your position about OLBs being the main problem area.

As for the "OK GM" comment, that has been gone over ad infinim and if you still choose to hold that opinion despite mountains of evidence to prove otherwise then I guess this is a pointless discussion.

I don't know what to tell you, I have faith that BB will coach em up, but you can't coach what you don't have. Ninlovich isn't that big a guy, he doesn't quite fit BB's mold as an OLB. TBC is a trick or treat type of player who doesn't play the run all that well. Cunningham looks like a player, but one sack is still what he is until he does something different. I have been hearing about not needing sacks since McGinnest left the team, and the defense has gotten progressively worse as the pass rush slowed down.

The secondary was better than the previous year, our safety play was much better because they liked to hit recievers crossing the middle. Say what you want about Merriwhether, he hit hard last year and more people droped balls across the middle than they had the previous couple of years.

BB isn't all that bad an evaluator, but his true vocation is coaching. He has become a guy who isn't willing to take a chance, even when that chance is a no brainer. Look at D'quan Bowers taken at #50, he was a gamble, but what the hell throw one of your two remaining seconds and a forth in the pot and move up the 7 spots to take him. He was the best pure pass rusher in the draft, but a lack if imagination gave him to Tampa. I really do not understand what BB thinks sometimes, I am beginning to think that maybe he has decided not to follow conventional thinking, because he wants to look smarter than everybody else.

I admire BB a lot, but we would have won the SB in 2007 with a pass rush, and we would have advanced last year. Remember, the defense had zeros across the board, no sacks, no pressures and no hits on Sanchez. That is unforgivable.

 

[patchick]

Ninkovich isn't that big a guy, he doesn't quite fit BB's mold as an OLB.
...
Cunningham looks like a player, but one sack is still what he is until he does something different.

Psst...Cunningham is 6'3 3/8" 260. Ninkovich is 6'3 1/8" 260. That must be a powerful two-eighths of an inch, to separate a guy who "looks like a player" from a shrimp who "doesn't fit the mold."

What fascinates me is that I've had variations on this conversation in various threads. There's something about Nink that seems to trigger a "no confidence" vote from a lot of fans. People scrabble for reasons to support that feeling, but none of the objective criteria offer any help. By the numbers, he's a good-sized, athletic, well-rounded young player who is developing well after starting his NFL career in a wilderness of injuries, 4-3 defenses and long snapping. But few fans have faith in that.

 

[Oswlek]

I don't know what to tell you, I have faith that BB will coach em up, but you can't coach what you don't have. Ninlovich isn't that big a guy, he doesn't quite fit BB's mold as an OLB. TBC is a trick or treat type of player who doesn't play the run all that well. Cunningham looks like a player, but one sack is still what he is until he does something different. I have been hearing about not needing sacks since McGinnest left the team, and the defense has gotten progressively worse as the pass rush slowed down.

The secondary was better than the previous year, our safety play was much better because they liked to hit recievers crossing the middle. Say what you want about Merriwhether, he hit hard last year and more people droped balls across the middle than they had the previous couple of years.

BB isn't all that bad an evaluator, but his true vocation is coaching. He has become a guy who isn't willing to take a chance, even when that chance is a no brainer. Look at D'quan Bowers taken at #50, he was a gamble, but what the hell throw one of your two remaining seconds and a forth in the pot and move up the 7 spots to take him. He was the best pure pass rusher in the draft, but a lack if imagination gave him to Tampa. I really do not understand what BB thinks sometimes, I am beginning to think that maybe he has decided not to follow conventional thinking, because he wants to look smarter than everybody else.

I admire BB a lot, but we would have won the SB in 2007 with a pass rush, and we would have advanced last year. Remember, the defense had zeros across the board, no sacks, no pressures and no hits on Sanchez. That is unforgivable.

Why is it a "lack of imagination" that led BB to pass on Bowers, instead of the shredded knee that had many teams drop him from their board all together? I said even before the injury issues that Bowers wasn't as good as advertised and I stand by that assessment, I couldn't be happier that he is on another roster.

Know what would have helped even more in the superbowl? Effective TE's and a power running game. But that game was so close that any improvement would have led to a victory, and I don't recall saying that NE's pass rush is the bees knees, either. :confused2:

You are correct that the pass rush needs to be addressed, but again you have an inability to look beyond the OLBs. Don't you think the pass rush will improve when NE has their two best sub rushing DL, Wright and Pryor, back healthy? Inside rushes are actually more disruptive than outside because you can't just slide up in the pocket. How about if NE has the full compliment of DL to stop the run and not leave so many options open for the offense? How about improving the hot read coverage so even when pressure is decent the QB isn't staring down a wide open receiver?

OLBs are only part of BB's defense and pass rush, always have been and always will be. When did NE's defense turned into Pittsburgh's?

 

[Oswlek]

One more thing. I'm not saying Nink and Jermaine are sure things, nor am I saying that reinforcements couldn't be used. I'm simply saying that conclusions reached at this point are decidedly premature. On top of that, even the reinforcements, barring a Colvin-type coming available, are going to need a couple years to get up to speed.

Either way, reinforcements cannot solve the OLB issue in 2011, so the best bet at this point is to hope for development.

 

[pats_premi]

Just asking, would you trade 2012 first round pick for Osi Umenyiora ? It will probably not happen due to system fit, cost, not willing trade partner, age.. but I think he falls in the "pain-in-the-butt" category for the Patriots and BB likes to trade for those kind of guys.

 

[cstjohn17]

For all that we wanted to see upgrades at DL & OLB, those positions are at least filled. What's more, the talent there is young enough that they should be able to at least modestly upgrade themselves. But with Neal retiring and Light, Faulk, Taylor and Morris all unsigned and aging, OL and RB had multiple, genuine gaping holes. And now the team has two new o-linemen and 2 new RBs.

Really this is still a top 5 roster, on offense they are pretty much set although I get they will trade for Steve Smith (maybe a 3rd rounder). On defense they go for the gusto and bring in Cullen Jenkins or make safe solid additions like Kiwanuka. Babin could play a spot role but is really just a TBC look alike. Maybe they trade for Ray Edwards.

In anycase the team it pretty much set, can't wait for football.

 

[Oswlek]

Really this is still a top 5 roster, on offense they are pretty much set although I get they will trade for Steve Smith (maybe a 3rd rounder). On defense they go for the gusto and bring in Cullen Jenkins or make safe solid additions like Kiwanuka. Babin could play a spot role but is really just a TBC look alike. Maybe they trade for Ray Edwards.

In anycase the team it pretty much set, can't wait for football.

Steve Smith will not be a Patriot. I can't for the life of me figure out how that rumor got any traction. The odds are NE won't sign any of the defensive guys you mention either.

 

[cstjohn17]

Steve Smith will not be a Patriot. I can't for the life of me figure out how that rumor got any traction. The odds are NE won't sign any of the defensive guys you mention either.

Good morning to you as well Mr. Sunshine. Why wouldn't Steve Smith be a fit for the Patriots? He is a model citizen next to Randy Moss and Corey Dillion.

The Jets and others are likely to play a lot of man to man against the Patriots WRs, their outside receivers are pretty much junk (Tate, Price, etc.). Smith makes tough plays, is dynamic and can get over the top.

 

[DaBruinz]

Good morning to you as well Mr. Sunshine. Why wouldn't Steve Smith be a fit for the Patriots? He is a model citizen next to Randy Moss and Corey Dillion.

The Jets and others are likely to play a lot of man to man against the Patriots WRs, their outside receivers are pretty much junk (Tate, Price, etc.). Smith makes tough plays, is dynamic and can get over the top.

Could Smith play for the Patriots? Sure. Will he? Probably not. Why? Smith hates the Patriots. He's said so. But then, money talks and BS walks.. So who knows.. But the bigger question is "Who do they cut?" if they add Smith?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Just asking, would you trade 2012 first round pick for Osi Umenyiora ? It will probably not happen due to system fit, cost, not willing trade partner, age.. but I think he falls in the "pain-in-the-butt" category for the Patriots and BB likes to trade for those kind of guys.

2 maybe, 1 no.

 

[Oswlek]

Good morning to you as well Mr. Sunshine. Why wouldn't Steve Smith be a fit for the Patriots? He is a model citizen next to Randy Moss and Corey Dillion.

The Jets and others are likely to play a lot of man to man against the Patriots WRs, their outside receivers are pretty much junk (Tate, Price, etc.). Smith makes tough plays, is dynamic and can get over the top.

Smith is a complete deuche who beat the hell out of two seperate teammates and his best days are long past.

When did every issue have to be resolved by signing the biggest name out there? It seems fans have forgotten that player's first seasons aren't the peak of their career arc.

Moss and Dillon were both brought in when the team had a championship caliber locker room. What has BB during this recent rebuild that indicates he want to bring in a declining arrogant deuche?

 

[Sfpat]

"Know what would have helped even more in the superbowl? Effective TE's and a power running game. But that game was so close that any improvement would have led to a victory, and I don't recall saying that NE's pass rush is the bees knees, either. "

Know what would have helped even more in the Superbowl, the Raven loss and the Jets loss - a left tackle who can protect TB. Oh wait - that's what BB addressed in the draft, you know the best LT in the draft instead of the 9th or 10th best OLB who probably wouldn't help the team for 3-4 years. Too many arm-chair GM's (i.e. naysayers) who think they know best and complain when the Pats go 14-2 in a rebuilding year. Do you complain about everything in life?

I suggest buying your own team and showing us results.

 

[Oswlek]

"Know what would have helped even more in the superbowl? Effective TE's and a power running game. But that game was so close that any improvement would have led to a victory, and I don't recall saying that NE's pass rush is the bees knees, either. "

Know what would have helped even more in the Superbowl, the Raven loss and the Jets loss - a left tackle who can protect TB. Oh wait - that's what BB addressed in the draft, you know the best LT in the draft instead of the 9th or 10th best OLB who probably wouldn't help the team for 3-4 years. Too many arm-chair GM's (i.e. naysayers) who think they know best and complain when the Pats go 14-2 in a rebuilding year. Do you complain about everything in life?

I suggest buying your own team and showing us results.

Have you been following the conversation? Or did you quote the wrong post?

 

[Sfpat]

Have you been following the conversation? Or did you quote the wrong post?

Yes, I've been following the conversation but admit being a page or two behind. I didn't want to repost the entire post as it was quite long.

 

[Oswlek]

Yes, I've been following the conversation but admit being a page or two behind. I didn't want to repost the entire post as it was quite long.

I ask because I've been the one defending BB, yet your post seems to single mine out as being a detractor. :confused2: