Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by JSn, Dec 24, 2008.
WEEI 850AM Sports Radio - No One Makes An Impact Like Randy Moss
Good stat analysis.
Glad to see someone giving Moss his due. Hopefully this argument picks up some notice in mainstream sports media, although I doubt it will since it isn't what people outside NE want to read.
I just have a hard time thinking of anybody other than Welker being this teams MVP. There are very few players in the whole league that I think have been more valuable than Wes.
Moss is a legend, and he has been great this season again, but it seemed to me anyway, that when this team needed something they went to Welker.
I think, as the article establishes, Moss contributed to a lot of Wes and Matt's stats.
I agree with this. The Pats now more-than-leathal passing game is made possible not only by what Moss has done when he's gotten the ball, but also by his opening up plays for Welker and Gaffney just by his presence on the field. And, as has been said in other threads, his blocking has been much more noticeable and impressive of late.
As to all the stuff about his dogging it at times earlier in the year, I really didn't see it. What I saw was more like a team-wide despondency (with a few exceptions) during certain games after Brady went down.
I don't want to take anything away from Wes, who is absolutely awesome, vital to our offense, and one of the best WRs in the league. But even when Moss isn't catching the ball. He's taking two defenders out of the play, guaranteed. You just can't overstate the importance of that in terms of how it opens up the field.
There's a reason why Culpepper became a crappy quarterback the second Moss left Minnesota- because he'd spent his entire career, to that point, working with that kind of an advantage.
I think the fact that we're looking at 1000 yards and 11 TDs (so far) as a quiet year for Moss says a lot about him, too...
Imagine if he was trying. *sarcasm*
Don't let facts like these fool you. Randy Moss is not giving his best effort. He is a selfish, greedy, me first type of person who gave up the second Brady went down. Also, he is the A Rod of the NFL. It is his fault we didn't win the SB last year.
$50 says someone flames you for this, even though you were being sarcastic AND I pointed it out.
I don't deny that Moss is important to the Patriots, but the reasoning here is anything but "cold hard football facts." They cited a bunch of statistics that refer to Moss's career or the 2007 season, then they point out that the Patriots have a high average running the ball and Welker has had a great season. Then they say, well, that was all Moss. I don't get how you can make that logical leap.
Although you could make a case for Moss as team MVP, I still think Welker gets the edge for team MVP because he adjusted quicker to Cassel, since Cassel picked up the short game with more ease. But Moss has gone under the radar imo, he will end the season with 1000+ Yards and at least 11 TDs, and for anyone else that would be a great season.
Well you haven't got a cl....PSYCH JSn.
Half of that article is why he should have been the MVP last year, not why he should be MVP this year.
My vote is Welker, 2nd choice Cassel.
some of you guys are missing the point:
Moss' effect does NOT show up in the stat sheet!
all of those "facts" were to show that he is still the same player that heavily contributed to those teams in the past, and that he's still doing it on this 2008 team, but that it doesn't show up in the stat sheet. i agree with this.
i don't know if i would go so far as to call him the team mvp though. however, i do think that his effect on the team is severely under appreciated by non-patriots fans.
Randy Moss is my favorite Patriots player, but even I would have to concede the notion of the 2008 Pats MVP to Wes Welker.
I agree, Welker should be this teams MVP. But there is middle ground between saying Wes is MVP and Moss hasn't had a good season. I think Moss has gone under the radar and has been great for the Pats this year. He isn't getting 23 TDs but he'll have 1000+ Yards again and lead the NFL in TDs...again.
Again, this is a completely illogical leap. I could be like "well Dan Marino threw lots of touchdowns in 1993, that's why he is the 2008 Patriots MVP," and it would have the same relevance as talking about Moss's 1998 season with the Vikings.
but Dan Marino isn't on the 2008 Patriots. Moss is.
I think you might be only looking at the "stats" that the article is using and not the implied impact that Moss had on the teams that he's been on.
I think we can all agree that the 3 Offensive MVP's are: Cassell, Welker, and Moss.
From all the info from the article, i concluded:
-We know that Moss can put up big #'s and carry a team without Welker or Cassel. We also know that people around Moss have had career years!
-We DON'T know if Welker or Cassel can do the same without Moss. Cassel and Welker have never had better years than when they've been with Moss.
...hence, the reason for all the "stats" referring to players having career years while playing with Moss. I dunno, it seemed pretty logical to me.
all i'm saying is that the author makes a valid argument, and he used pretty logical facts.
As other posters have said, Welker is as good a candidate as Moss for Pats MVP. Matt Cassel also has a good case.
In Cassel's case, I have to say that if he didn't have the recievers and coaching he has there is a good chance he would not be as successful.
As for Randy, there are at least 3 TDs he has dropped. Not that Randy hasn't been a monster despite that but Wes has really stepped up, too.
But I don't know that Wes gets that many catches without Randy's presence.
Tough call between Wes and Moss and Cassel.
Tri Co MVPs, out of the question?
No it is not. I could probably show you video of every reception Welker has had this year and I guarantee that at least half of his receptions were due to Moss pulling 2-3 defenders away from Welker, leaving him open.
Moss didn't take longer to adjust to Cassel, its the other way around. Cassel need time to get the long ball working. Moss was getting open deep from game 1, Cassel just took a while to be able to hit him. Hell, Cassel himself answered questions about him finally being able to "gel" with Moss on the deep passes and he responded "The deep ball is the hardest pass to make, the short stuff is much easier, it takes much longer to get the deep ball timed." or something to that effect.
And finally, who is it that actually SCORES? Moss has 11TD so far (could easily have more) while Wes has 3. Moss is the single most dangerous WR in the redzone in the HISTORY of the NFL.
Now I LOVE Wes, but all stats, logic, and history (body of work) heavily suggest that Moss is the MVP of the offense.
That being said, I would put Cassel 2nd because he has done an amazing job for a guy who hadn't played a real game in 7 years.
Correlation does not equal causation.
When Moss draws double/triple coverage and Welker occupies the now vacant area, that is causation, not correlation.
Go on NFL.com and watch all the Welker highlight videos. On MANY of his receptions, you will see that it is often Moss that opens up the field for him.
NFL Video Galleries
Moss brings the CB and SS with him (getting physical with the SS) letting Welker get 1 on 1 over the middle against a LB.
NFL Video Galleries
First play he is 1 on 1, easy beat on the hook.
0:50 in, 3rd and 3, Welker and Moss bunched up on the right, Moss clears out the CB and FS, leaving Welker WIDE open on a short hook.
1:00, FS cheats in, leaving Welker 1 on 1 to make a good catch, but keep in mind that Moss was also wide open on the other side of the field as well.
1:30, again you have two guys covering Moss on the right while the Safety in a middle left zone cheats towards Moss, leaving Welker open underneath.
I could do this all day. Welker is the best Slot WR in the NFL. He is great at finding the holes and YAC, but he gets a TON of help from Moss's ability to clear the field.
I've watched. You're wrong. Your numbers are off.
What's your point? I took college-level statistics, too, so I understand where you're coming from, but I don't see how it applies to Moss's value to the Patriots. Can you give an explanation for why he is the only player to start on the top 2 offenses in NFL history without him being a major cause? I really, really doubt it.
This is kind of a pet peeve of mine, actually. It is true that correlation does not equal causation. Causation, however, does cause correlation, and in cases like this it is pretty straightforward and common sense to determine that Moss' s presence on the roster and offenses being historically good is a relationship of causation. How else would you characterize the correlation?
Be more specific. How is he wrong on the first play? Are you arguing that Moss isn't being doubled, or that Welker isn't being covered by a linebacker? Because Satch is pretty obviously right on both counts. Or are you disputing what he said on one of the other plays? Either way, if you want to be taken seriously you're going to have to actually give examples, like he did.
For the second link:
First play: Welker is being covered one on one (by a linebacker, by the looks of it). The help doesn't come up until well after he's caught the ball.
Second play: once again, Satch is right on the money. Welker makes it 8 yards upfield without being touched, simply because nobody is even close to him.
Fourth Play: Welker ends up being covered by Lofa Tatupu underneath. Lofa can't keep up with him, obviously.
I don't think anyone here is denying that Welker is an awesome player in his own right, but it's just ridiculous to try to claim that Moss doesn't make him far more effective.
1 question answers it. When you are in the redzone and you NEED a TD, who do you look for? Moss.
I'm not trying to say Welker sucks or anything. He is a tremendous player, but we are talking about possibly the greatest WR to ever play the game (Moss). It's a no brainer.
It's still a truism. Furthermore, Moss has been featured with other truly great players when he's been a part of those high scoring seasons, and it's not as if he's been a part of every one of the top 10 offenses in NFL history or anything. The 2004 Colts put up plenty of points without him, for example.
Not only that, but not only does correlation not equal causation, major cause does not equal MVP.
Lob pass in the endzone recipient does not equal MVP either. I could just as easily point out that Welker is the league leader in receptions and claim that "answers it". Welker also has more receiving yards and returns punts.
Yes, there were other really good players on the top 2 scoring offenses in NFL history (that should go without saying...), but Moss AVERAGED 20 TDs in those seasons. Are you seriously going to claim that he isn't both the common denominator and pretty obviously a core part of both offenses? Because if that's what you're trying to say, then there's really no room left for discussion.
As a side note, the 1998 Vikings offense had Randall Cunningham, Robert Smith, Cris Carter, Jake Reed, and a talented offensive line. Talented players, yes, but Carter and Moss are the only two who have any shot whatsoever of making the HOF. So, for the 1998 Vikings, he had exactly one other 'truly great' player helping him out. He was a rookie, and he was already the most important player on the highest scoring offense in NFL history.
The fact that he didn't play on offenses 3-10 in top scoring means absolutely nothing. Nobody appeared on all ten, so, by that criteria, there has never been a truly great offensive player in the history of the NFL. Thanks for clearing that up for us.
So yes, in this case, major cause most definitely does equal MVP. Unless you think that it's pure coincidence that Moss has a history of consistently raising the performance of the QBs and WRs around him to HOF levels, levels that they do not and cannot attain without him.
I wasn't pointing to his cherry picked examples. I was referring to the entirety of the season.
Separate names with a comma.