Expectations

[captain stone]

Indy, Baltimore and the Bengals all have very tough schedules. The Ravens don't have the offense to win consistently against good teams even if their Defense only allows 10 ppg and the Bengals have the same problem as Indy, no run defense. Our schedule is about as easy as it can get in the NFL and we should finish with at least 13 wins (I predict 14) but none of those three teams will win 13 games. Denver and San Diego have favorable schedules and could pull out 13 wins but only one can win the division.

13-14 wins? I like the sound of that.

One thing to consider, though, is that Baltimore, Denver and Indy all have won games they should have lost already. And not because they showed the signs of champinship-caliber teams, but because their opponents choked the games away. God, I hate when that happens. So, those teams' win projections may have to be adjusted upward.

Finally, one of the keys to the Pats' drive toward these 13-14 wins, is the continued health and production from their LBs and DBs. There is less quality depth at these positions than at DL, OL, RB, WR and TE. It's up to the offense, therefore, to take an early lead, force the opposition's offense to play one-dimensionally, and then Kill the Klock. The less time spent on the field by our D, the smaller the chance for injury.

 

[Fencer]

Wow! How do the Pats just keep doing it?

Not so much the players they lose, but HOW MANY quality assistants has Bill B lost recently?

As history has shown, alot of veteran coaches(i.e. Bum, Ditka, Allen, Jimmy J, and now recently Tuna) have eventually lost their edges 'cuz of just that-all of their assistants that they've had loyalty and chemistry with for so many years just eventually dissapear. How does Bill B keep doing it?

He got lucky on OL coach Dante S., who rivals Monte Kiffin as the league's best assistant coach who'll never leave town. And he's just a great thinker on defense, personally. So when he needed the good luck of a Dean Pees walking in off the street and quickly becoming an expert coach of the system, he was naturally in line to get it. Otherwise on offense it's less obvious -- he's slow to hire, and isn't obviously recruiting or grooming great guys. I really don't know how he got such a great staff in Cleveland. I don't think Parcells had that much to do with it (although he does owe Charlie Weis to Parcells on offense). Nick Saban, Kirk Ferentz, Pat Hill, Jim Schwartz, AND Romeo Crennel? Wow!!!

 

[Fencer]

Finally, one of the keys to the Pats' drive toward these 13-14 wins, is the continued health and production from their LBs and DBs. There is less quality depth at these positions than at DL, OL, RB, WR and TE. It's up to the offense, therefore, to take an early lead, force the opposition's offense to play one-dimensionally, and then Kill the Klock. The less time spent on the field by our D, the smaller the chance for injury.

Hmm. Mixing and matching of DBs goes on all the time. And 2-LB sets are doable in a pinch. WR is pretty shallow. Dillon getting hurt in Denver was a huge problem. And the DL is only 5 deep. The difference may not be as extreme as you're suggesting.

 

[shakadave]

I am not sold on Denver yet. They owned us, but haven't looked incredibly convincing against other teams. I think they have a great defense, but that offense isn't very good unless they're playing against the Patriots (so far this season).

Well, that same description --- more defense than offense --- also fits Baltimore who is also 4-1 or so. Look what happened when they met: Denver snuffed out Baltimore.

 

[shakadave]

Based on the Season thus far and the schedule's the team's face I think it will end up like this in the AFC:

1. NE
2. Denver
3. Cincy
4. Indy
5. San Diego
6. Baltimore

NE may have to go 15-1 to finish ahead of Denver.

 

[mgcolby]

NE may have to go 15-1 to finish ahead of Denver.

They have a few tough games left including two against San Diego which I think they split and they could end up dropping a game or two that they shouldn't. The same could be said about us or any team for that matter but I think Jake will have a game or two where he turns the ball over 1 time to many.