ESPNs Lundblad breaks down the Pats D

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Interesting stuff behind the numbers of why the defense has been able to stay afloat despite the horrendous publicity it gets.

How big of a concern is the New England Patriots' defense? - ESPN Boston

 

[supafly]

In regards to the video segment:

I absolutely agree with Tedy, that the first playoff game will be the difference. By getting that monkey off of their backs, they should then gain some needed confidence and momentum heading into the AFCCG. I would think that the AFCCG could be a whole different animal, and that the team itself would play a lot looser and overall more effectively in their 2nd game.

It's the first one that worries me more too, and by taking it the usual one game at a time approach, they should be able to handle it this yr. After winning that inital game in the divisional round, it may act as a springboard for the remainder of the tournament.

 

[supafly]

Wow..this is quite a telling statement:

"Entering this season, the Patriots were 6-32 all-time when allowing 450 or more yards.

This season, they are 5-0."

As much as this stat seems to be good this yr, I can't help but being slightly concerned at the same time. I certainly hope that this defense can hold the other team to pts in the early 20's or so, and that our offensive line gives Brady time to find his target (not to mention keeps him off his ass).

These 2 aspects will pave the way to a successful postseason, in my opinion, and are the 2 biggest wildcards moving forward.

As confident as I am in the team overall, I just can't help going back to the worries of the defense, and the pass coverage specifically. I am very optimistic, but cautious at the same time.

EDIT: After looking at the article again, there is no doubt that any success in the postseason would easily be Belichick's greatest single season accomplishment, at least in my eyes. If he is able to pull off victories in the playoffs against elite talent with the smoke and mirrors style of bend but don't break to this level, he will surprise even the biggest supporters outside of Boston.

86 "big" plays this year of 20+ yards....yet somehow only allowing 5 TD's of over 20 yards (same number as Pittsburgh, who in comparison only allowed 39 "big" plays), that is amazing.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

It's very obvious that the key to winning in the playoffs this year is more concerning our offense and will it be able to generate 30 or more points a game than to worry about the defense containing the opponent.

We know the defense will likely give up yardage and points....what we don't know is will the offense be able to take on the toughest defenses in the AFC and score on them?

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Wow..this is quite a telling statement:

"Entering this season, the Patriots were 6-32 all-time when allowing 450 or more yards.

This season, they are 5-0."

As much as this stat seems to be good this yr, I can't help but being slightly concerned at the same time. I certainly hope that this defense can hold the other team to pts in the early 20's or so, and that our offensive line gives Brady time to find his target (not to mention keeps him off his ass).

These 2 aspects will pave the way to a successful postseason, in my opinion, and are the 2 biggest wildcards moving forward.

As confident as I am in the team overall, I just can't help going back to the worries of the defense, and the pass coverage specifically. I am very optimistic, but cautious at the same time.

EDIT: After looking at the article again, there is no doubt that any success in the postseason would easily be Belichick's greatest single season accomplishment, at least in my eyes. If he is able to pull off victories in the playoffs against elite talent with the smoke and mirrors style of bend but don't break to this level, he will surprise even the biggest supporters outside of Boston.

86 "big" plays this year of 20+ yards....yet somehow only allowing 5 TD's of over 20 yards (same number as Pittsburgh, who in comparison only allowed 39 "big" plays), that is amazing.

Personally,I think Belichick has nothing to prove to anyone,even if the team never wins another playoff game under his regime.

Bill is already one of the greatest HCs ever and what he does in terms of success in the future is just more icing on the cake.

 

[supafly]

Personally,I think Belichick has nothing to prove to anyone,even if the team never wins another playoff game under his regime.

Bill is already one of the greatest HCs ever and what he does in terms of success in the future is just more icing on the cake.

While your statement is very true, there are those outside of the N.England area who talk of the one and done's post-Spygate.

I certainly agree with you, and feel as though he does not have anything at all to prove; but success this yr with a lot of doubters due to the defense will make a very strong solidification towards his greatness.

Looking at those stats and watching the defense this yr, any other team would easily have a losing record. If there is success in this yr's playoffs from the 2011 Pats, this aspect will not go un-noticed. Somehow, someway, Belichick has once again made a monument out of some scotch tape and empty pop cans.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

While your statement is very true, there are those outside of the N.England area who talk of the one and done's post-Spygate.

Everyone always wants to bring down the guy on top. As long as they keep trying to convinve people, that pretty much means he's the guy.

take it as a compliment to our HoF coach.

 

[Coach42]

While your statement is very true, there are those outside of the N.England area who talk of the one and done's post-Spygate.



They went to the Super Bowl in 2007-08 season, post spy gate.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

It's very obvious that the key to winning in the playoffs this year is more concerning our offense and will it be able to generate 30 or more points a game than to worry about the defense containing the opponent.

We know the defense will likely give up yardage and points....what we don't know is will the offense be able to take on the toughest defenses in the AFC and score on them?

I'm still wondering where this 30pt number came from. The Pats have only surrendered 30 or more points once this year, and without a pick 6 the number would actually be 0. If the offense takes care of the ball they'll most likely be called on to score between 20-27 pts a game. This is a pretty tough task, but far from the 30+pts that keeps getting thrown out there. The only game where a 30+pt game being a requirement is likely would be the SB against either NO or GB, but both of those teams have defenses that are somewhat suspect.

Otherwise I agree with your point.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

It's very obvious that the key to winning in the playoffs this year is more concerning our offense and will it be able to generate 30 or more points a game than to worry about the defense containing the opponent.

We know the defense will likely give up yardage and points....what we don't know is will the offense be able to take on the toughest defenses in the AFC and score on them?

Why exactly does the offense need 30 points?

When has an opposing offense scored 30?

Five of the six AFC participants in the tournament will not have an offense that even remotely approaches elite. One would be pressed to make the case any of them are good.

In a game against Green Bay and New Orleans, traditional measurements go out the window.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Wow..this is quite a telling statement:

"Entering this season, the Patriots were 6-32 all-time when allowing 450 or more yards.

This season, they are 5-0."

As much as this stat seems to be good this yr, I can't help but being slightly concerned at the same time. I certainly hope that this defense can hold the other team to pts in the early 20's or so, and that our offensive line gives Brady time to find his target (not to mention keeps him off his ass).

These 2 aspects will pave the way to a successful postseason, in my opinion, and are the 2 biggest wildcards moving forward.

As confident as I am in the team overall, I just can't help going back to the worries of the defense, and the pass coverage specifically. I am very optimistic, but cautious at the same time.

EDIT: After looking at the article again, there is no doubt that any success in the postseason would easily be Belichick's greatest single season accomplishment, at least in my eyes. If he is able to pull off victories in the playoffs against elite talent with the smoke and mirrors style of bend but don't break to this level, he will surprise even the biggest supporters outside of Boston.

86 "big" plays this year of 20+ yards....yet somehow only allowing 5 TD's of over 20 yards (same number as Pittsburgh, who in comparison only allowed 39 "big" plays), that is amazing.

450+ yards is not telling because all of them were blowouts.

These stat based articles miss the two key/critical factors on judging a defense:

Can they execute a gameplan.

Ability for making adjustments.

Look at the Denver game. The fixation was on the first quarter when the defense was "gashed". Now even ESPN asks if the Patriots provided the blueprint.

The reality is, a critical component of finding what works is often finding what doesn't work. Philly, Washington, Miami all have a common theme.

 

[Rob0729]

Why exactly does the offense need 30 points?

When has an opposing offense scored 30?

Five of the six AFC participants in the tournament will not have an offense that even remotely approaches elite. One would be pressed to make the case any of them are good.

In a game against Green Bay and New Orleans, traditional measurements go out the window.

I totally agree with this "the Pats need to score 30 points to win games" is complete and utter hogwash. Of all the Pats' 12 wins, how many of those games did the opponent score 29 or more points? Zero. I think only one of the wins, the opposing team scored 27 points. And many of the games the opponent got garbage time points to make them look like it was a closer game than it was (the first Miami game, San Diego, Oakland, second Jets game, Philly, and Denver).

The fact of the matter is the Pats are the 14th best team in points allowed (21.4 PPG). Of the teams ahead of them, only five are in the playoffs - Steelers (14.5 PPG), San Fran (13.5 PPG), Ravens (16.7 PPG), Houston (17 PPG and their defense seems to be falling apart in recent games), and Packers (21.2 PPG which is 0.2 PPG less than the Pats). Three more are fighting for two playoff spots - Titans (19.7 PPG), Cincy (19.9 PPG), and Dallas (21.1 PPG which is only 0.3 less PPG than the Patriots) and there is a decent shot that only one or even none get in.

This is why this focus on yards is skewing people's perception of the defense. In this year's NFL, the reality is this defense is middle of the pack. You watch other games and you see a lot of far worse defenses who give up less yards but are like turnstiles to the end zone. Go back and watch the Giants' games and see what a really bad defense looks like. Or the Panthers games.

 

[RayClay]

Obviously, it is much better to allow zero yards, but the correlation between yards allowed and winning games has almost completely disappeared. the best teams have always had a defense that compliments there offense and gets the job done in important areas.

Obviously, teams that spend more on defense need to keep games lower scoring and chew clock, for instance. those with high powered offenses might dare teams to run (Colts) or to march down the field consistently and score touchdowns (Patriots). Colts outgun, we outlast and tighten up in the redzone.

But this year? I'd love some statistician to take a crack at this. obviously, less is better than more, but the results this year are pretty close to random, regarding ypg and winning.

Take a look.

NFL Stats: by Team Category

Top three, by record Are NE (32) GB (31) NO (26)

Tied for third is SF (4) then Pitt (1), Balt. (3)

That's a wash.

(5th) in ypg is Jacksonville, (10th) is Cleveland. They are 4-11.

(8th) is Philly, at 7-8.

(13) is the Skins at 5-10
-----

(28th) and (29th) are nyg and oak with 8-7 records, not great, but winning.

Our secondary sucks, but it only needs to execute a few game plans along with the rest of the defense, which is actually pretty good IMO. I've got a lot of faith in the guy who has our together some of the best game plans ever and don't care if the other team dances around between the 20s as long as we score a point more.

 

[patfanken]

This is much better thread than its getting credit for.

Supe. Don't worry about the "monkey our back". The only one's with a "monkey on their backs" is US....the fans The media and opposing fans have put that monkey on OUR backs. One of the things I've come to realize abou the Pats is that EVERY year is completely different in he mind of BB and how he programs his players.

None of the good stuff, AND none of the bad stuff carries over year to year. There are too many changes each year to do more than specualate how something that happened last year can effect THIS one....and all the dynamics of then current team. The personality of the team is never the same....good or bad.

Nothing brings this out more than all the comments concerning the Ravens. More than half the roster in that 2009 game is gone. How can that possibly affect a player on this squad, it was over 2 years ago. That's a lifetime in NFL years. Its even less important when you think that the Ravens haven't beaten the Pats SINCE that game. Yet still the mediots yap about the Ravens of 2009 like they have anything to do with the the group there today

There's no Monkey Supe. Why would the NE Patriots remotely "fear" the coming of a team who already has proven NUMEROUS times they can't win on the road. That their offence is annemic, and if you stop Ray Rice you can stop the Ravens offense....period When have the Pats failed to stop their #1 target on defense

Afraid of the Ravens....."Hell NO!" In fact I'm hoping they somehow manage to find their way to NE next month. I'd rather play that sorry group of over the hill UNDER acheivers than some other teams I can think of. Let me know when you can think of who on the Ravens is going to cover Gronk and Hernandez.....and oh yeah, Welker

This isn't the 2009 Patriots who would wilt under a bright light, give up 24 in a quarter then skulk away until next year. This is the 2011 Patriots who have proven OVER and OVER again that you can beat them down and their come right back at you.

I have an idea. Why don't we let THEM think of ways they will be able to keep us under 30 and and let THEM figure out how they will manage to equal that, even against "our" D

How's THAT monkey, Supe

 

[D-Money]

This defense has been terrible.To say otherwise is to not accepted it.They are gonna have to find a way to get stops in the playoffs.McCourty needs to stop getting burn and gotta find a way to get some pressure on the opposing qb.

 

[borg]

Buffalo dropped 448 yds for the win.......but 448 isn't 450.....so the writer can still be brilliant

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

This defense has been terrible.To say otherwise is to not accepted it.They are gonna have to find a way to get stops in the playoffs.McCourty needs to stop getting burn and gotta find a way to get some pressure on the opposing qb.

The defense has been looser than my Ex-Wife between the 20s but tightens up inside the red zone...that why a defense like this can still be productive in the playoffs.....limit the opposition to FGs and they have done well at that which is why the team has gone this far.

 

[Coach42]

I don't think you can compare this defense to defenses from 20 years ago, as the author attempted. We are clearly in a new era of football where offenses have major advantages over defenses.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

I don't think you can compare this defense to defenses from 20 years ago, as the author attempted. We are clearly in a new era of football where offenses have major advantages over defenses.

Pat Kirwin's Dec 14 article at nfl.com discusses this. As he says, red zone defense, turnovers, and defensive scoring are now the points of emphasis. It just hasn't dawned on many at patsfans.com and in the mediot world.

ex Patriot greats appear to be especially oblivious to the now obvious reality.

A few years back, it was inconcievable to not have a feature RB. In a few short years, they have gone the way of the DoDo bird.

You also have to question basic intelligence when so much emphasis is placed on yards surrendered in the 4th quarter up 3 or 4 scores.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Buffalo dropped 448 yds for the win.......but 448 isn't 450.....so the writer can still be brilliant

Yeah, I guess it does take an IQ north of two to realize that game featured four turnovers.

Thanks should be given that football fandom doesn't require a minimum IQ.