ESPN: Pats "Gambling" with Roster (Poss. Re-post)

[PromisedLand]

The Pats are so thin at linebacker that they can't field four good linebackers

in a 3-4 defense. If they sign and trade Asante Samuel, same situation

at cornerback. Their wide receiving corps is Caldwell, Gaffney, an

injured Chad Jackson and three guys named Childress, Kight, and Smith.

Over the last two years, the Pats have lost several of their starters

from their 2005 Super Bowl team and may lose two or three more this

year. They have a lot of work to do to replenish their roster.

What you and everybody else who keeps saying that fail to see is that turnover is normal in the NFL. NFL careers are short. Guys leave and new guys come in. In 2001, when we won our first Super Bowl, did we have:

Asante Samuel?
Laurence Maroney?
Dan Koppen?
Logan Mankins?
Steven Neal?
Ben Watson?
Ty Warren?
Vince Wilfork?
Steven Gostkowski?
Rodney Harrison?
Rosy Colvin?

With the possible exceptions of Samuel (Ty Law), Colvin (McGinest) and Gostkowski (Adam V), every one of those guys is better than the guy they replaced. And even the exceptions are debatable.

The fact of the matter is that the Patriots have done a remarkable job of turning the roster over, keeping it young and hungry, and replacing guys before their performance drops off or they take up too much cap room.

Yes, the roster of guys who were here at the start of the run is getting thinner and thinner, but the roster of up and coming young stars is getting thicker and thicker.

 

[Gumby]

It's going to be hard for them to stay at the 12-win level next season because they have the toughest schedule in the AFC (.535 against). Last year, they had a .496-against schedule, which helped their record. Still, the Patriots should win 10 or 11 games without too much trouble.

Well the thing that struck me here was that at this time last year we didn't face a .496 against schedule; it was rather an over 500 against schedule (based on the 2005 season records). (based on my recollection - **

But after we faced these guys in 2006 we contributed to the teams we faced having a lower win % than they did in 2005.



** I thought it was like a .540 record - but I'm always willing to be proven wrong by someone with more time & diligence to actually look up records than to just spout off like I am doing.

 

[salty]

I really have to disagree with this, because it always looks this way after the end of a season. The defensive backfield is as strong as its ever been and the DL is the best in the league. Vrabel and Colvin are excellent OLB's. Not pro-bowl, but well above average and smart, big players.

So yes, they're hurting at ILB, no question about it. But if they plug in ONE top of the line vet ILBs, and swap Seau and Bruschi and Barry Gardner (remember him, he wasn't looking so bad in TC), that'll be one of the best defenses in the league, yet again. Then, if they draft a LB and bring in another solid vet, they'll have depth and developing talent.

They're not at all far from being the best and they've got cap room.

Let's see what happens in a week or so.

Your assessment of the team, as it stands now, is more than a little rosey, IMO. "The defensive backfield is as strong as its every been"? I beg to differ. While Hobbs and Samuel at corner is a pretty good tandem, and should only improve next year as they are both still young, we have a pretty big problem at safety. Rodney Harrison, who was really the heart, soul, and brains of the defensive secondary, appears to be near done. He hasn't been able to stay on the field the past two years, and thats really not surprising given his age and style of play. Then there is Eugene Wilson, who has pretty much been a zero since 2004. That leaves Hawkins and James Sanders, and we saw last year that, as a tandem, they leave a fair amount to be desired, especially in coverage. So I'd say the team is in a pretty desperate need of shoring up the safety position.

At LB, I'll agree that we are good at OLB with Colvin and Vrabel, although there is really no quality depth there. An injury to either of those guys and the linebackers would suddenly look quite bad. As for the inside, we are in a truly desperate situation there. Bruschi is near the end of his career and is probably not an every down player anymore. As for our other meager options at the position, Seau is REALLY old and Eric Alexander stunk in the playoffs (though that was a tough position for him to be in, starting his first game in the playoffs). So by my count we really have ZERO starters at ILB. Maybe we could cobble together one position with a rotation of what we currently have, but that still leaves a gaping hole at the other ILB spot.

The Patriots can solve these problems through the draft and free agency, and they almost certainly will do that, provided they don't bring in the likes of Monty Beisel or Duane Starks. But as it stands now there are some pretty big areas of concern on this team, and I didn't even get into the offensive side of the ball.

 

[BradfordPatsFan]

This is the same John Clayton who, during the Patriots' "Field Pass" segment on Friday said, "They likely won't franchise Asante Samuel."

 

[DW Toys]

Good afternoon cousins,
A couple of nice left over Sunday doughnuts (so what) and some DD flavored coffee, starting with an O.J. on this winter day.

My comments might not be worth anything to the astute but we'll fire a few off here.

We need depth.
We have already a pretty good defense and I will address that first. They set a team record for fewest points and played the Colts and the Bengals and others that put up the big numbers. The Colts game bore witness to just running out of bodies and steam. A little more pass rush without blitzes would help.

Just some quick thoughts and I'm sure comments will follow:
How about K.C.'s Jared Allen. Wants out as bad as Branch did here last year. 25 years old. great pass rusher, but.....has the quicks to drop at 6' 6'' and 270 (same size as Thomas of Ravens). Willie M. style? Proven commodity, young, not a two or three year draft choice wait time frame. How can teams double Seymour, with Allen rushing too? More upside than Freeney.

Would you, or the Godfather trade a number one and perhaps (optimistically to fill the DE position in K.C.) Marquis Hill (after all he was a #2 pick and he just won't get playing time here. He might be better than what we think because BB and SP keep him on the roster) for Allen? If we could keep him on the wagon and get him signed to a reasonable contract, I would pull the trigger. Remember only 25 years old! It would get us yet another PR and maybe a drop back LB upon occasion. Isn't that how Thomas worked for the Ravens? Wouldn't he cost less?

Next I would resign Seau for another season. He played with vigor and heart last year (he also wasn't as slow as we were led to believe) and if we could draft a Willis. What teachers he, Teddy, Colvin and Vrabel could be but.....now pick up Donnie Edwards at a reasonable FA number to add to the MLB rotation for a year or two and especially on pass downs. Wouldn't you rather have seen him covering down the field with one minute to go in Indy? Seau first and second down and Edwards on third or obvious passing situations.

Now....Let's see! We have taken care of the LB issue. Have gotten a little younger there (with Allen and Willis lets say). Have gotten better pass rushing and have got some future talent.

Lets go for Bly, the CB who wants out of Detroit. In 2006 he was the best CB leading the team with 18 passes defensed and tying for the team lead in interceptions in 2006 with three after leading the Lions with six interceptions in 2005. He's a 29 year old Vet who will not cost the Pats a ton like Nate Clemmons. Bly has the most forced fumbles (17) among all cornerbacks since 1999 (second among all defensive backs). He also ranks sixth among defensive backs (fifth among cornerbacks) with 113 passes defenses since he was a rookie in '99. Now we can draft a CB high to develop, not throw into the fire because Hobbs or Wilson can do nickle (or Gay) and we have some depth.

On offense at RB, we got healthier with Evans signed, but another Vet would help like maybe even Stephen Smith. A thumper who is still able to do 8-10 carries, do short yardage, catch the ball on screens etc. (much better hands than Dillion) and start a game or two if required. He is at the end but has that saavy. Now draft a running back to bring along in the mid rounds.

At WR, still think that Kevin Curtis is the Branch type WR that the Pats feature with better routes and bigger than Branch was but just as fast and will do ST returns.

Now get one of these two WR's. The cerebral Gonzales out of Ohio state who is fast, runs great patterns, has superb hands, is still 6' tall and can get open or his teamate Ginn Jr. who might not have the hands or size but is a burner that can return punts (ala Hester) and can even be used as a DB (BB like multi-talent player). Ginn will be first round or high in the second. Gonzales is late second or early third round

Perfect world stuff, but food for thought!
DW Toys