The story: So the Patriots win at home and lose on the road. That makes them an easy mark for Miami and puts them in the middle of the AFC East crowd, right? I wouldn't be so sure. To reach the top of the division you still have to climb over the defending champion, and that's not the Jets or Miami. It's Tom Brady and the Patriots, and the last time we checked in with them they were lapping the Buffalo Bills.
But that was at home, where they're 2-0. Now they're on the road, and it was there they struggled against the Jets -- failing to solve a secondary that played the second half without Darrelle Revis. Statistically, Miami is better on defense than the Jets, especially on pass defense, and when you combine that with their history against New England here (they have defeated the Pats eight of the past 12 seasons) it's hard not to like the home team.
But this is about more than numbers. It's about matchups, and if there's a weak link in the Patriots it's pass defense. The defensive backs are young and all over the place and the pass rush is spotty. Ryan Fitzpatrick punctured them. So did Mark Sanchez. What happens when Chad Henne starts looking for Brandon Marshall? I'll tell you what: You hope Brady can hold serve. This is a tennis match, with points galore in the balance, and if it comes down to Brady vs. Henne, you know where I'm going.
Something to consider: Under Belichick, the Patriots are 10-5 on Monday night -- winning six of their past seven.
