ESPN Mock going on right now has us taking...

[Holy Diver]

we could've used a running back or two last year....

Amos Zeroe anyone?

 

[Richter]

Fair. So who do you like @ 21 nstead?

What if Addai isn't there in the 2nd?

I don't really like this running back class at all, honestly. Williams, Mauroney, White, none of them impress me at the top. The guys who might be value picks later on all have serious warts, except for Addai. Calhoun and Drew are both players that won't be feature backs, at least not in the Pats' offense. I'd rather take a chance on a player at a later pick, if I chose a back at all in this draft. Maybe Mike Bell or Dontrell Moore. At 21, I'm looking defense all the way. Someone for the back 7, either an linebacker with like Lawson or Carpenter, or a cornerback. My ideal scenario would probably be picking up one of the linebackers, then trading up in the second to secure a guy like Marshall, then looking for receiver, running back and line depth on both sides of the ball.

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

I see the Pats taking either Carpenter or Greenway. They could take Chad Jackson there, though I don't think he fits into their value scheme in the 1st round. Marcus McNeil could be another candidate, taking Gorin's place on the roster and giving the Pats tremendous depth at tackle. I think that McNeil would push both Light and Kaczur for playing time and a starting position.

Though I doubt he'd see much, if any starter action this season for us, I could live with getting Greenway. At least he'd play ST's a ton. But I want to see our 1st rounder play and contribute to winning a SB THIS year.

I want no part of Carpenter. I watched a ton of Buckeye games. Talk about overrated. This link sums up my feelings on Carpenter perfectly. http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2006/carpenter_bobby Give me Schelgel instead.

McNeil? Read the summary at http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2006/mcneill_marcus Sounds like the anti Patriot to me.

I guess the point is anyone that is drafted @ 21 will be full of faults. If they weren't they'd be drafted in the top 5.

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

I don't really like this running back class at all, honestly. Williams, Mauroney, White, none of them impress me at the top. The guys who might be value picks later on all have serious warts, except for Addai. Calhoun and Drew are both players that won't be feature backs, at least not in the Pats' offense. I'd rather take a chance on a player at a later pick, if I chose a back at all in this draft. Maybe Mike Bell or Dontrell Moore. At 21, I'm looking defense all the way. Someone for the back 7, either an linebacker with like Lawson or Carpenter, or a cornerback. My ideal scenario would probably be picking up one of the linebackers, then trading up in the second to secure a guy like Marshall, then looking for receiver, running back and line depth on both sides of the ball.

But, like with Williams, these guys will all have warts on them.

From the 21st spot it's to be expected.

 

[JJDChE]

I don't consider him a top 10 talent, not even close in this draft. He was productive in college, which is a positive indicator, but it doesn't impress me, especially with the level of competition he faced. And who cares how many times he handles the ball? Richard Seymour is lucky to handle the ball 3 or 4 times a season, did that make him a bad first round pick? I'll tell you what's not to like - for the NFL he's small, he's slow, he already has plenty of tread worn off his tires, he'll be making a bigger leap in terms of competition in comparison to other prospects, and taking a running back in the first round is always a shakier investment than other positions. Running backs have short shelf lives, and good ones can be found in later rounds. I'd be much happier to take a defensive player in the first to bolster the back 7, then look at a guy like Addai in the second as a much better value.

Shoot, I don't even want a RB in the 1st (or even 2nd), but your criticisms of Williams are terrible. If you don't want a RB, just say it. Your post is a waterfall of bogus excuses.

1.) "who cares how many times he handles the ball?"

Ummm, everyone? That is one of the biggest concerns with RBs comong out of college..."Can they handle the load in the NFL?" You hear it constantly around draft time .


2.) "for the NFL he's small"

No, he isn't. He's 5'10" 217. That's prototypical RB size. Emmitt Smith, LT, Clinton Portis, Cadillac Williams.


3.) "he's slow"

He's a 4.5-ish type guy, which is pretty standard for an NFL RB, about where Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith were. His game is vision and lateral movement, he has plenty of straight line speed. 40-yd times are low on the list of number to evaluate RB's with.


4.) "he already has plenty of tread worn off his tires"

Please. He's 23. No rookie RB has plenty of tread worn off their tires.


5.) "bigger leap in terms of competition in comparison to other prospects"

People said the same type of garbage about Tomlinson.


6.) "taking a running back in the first round is always a shakier investment than other positions...and good ones can be found in later rounds"

It's been proven to be one of the least risky positions to take in the first round. It's more rare to get an impact RB on day 2 than any other position. There is a better correlation between draft position and success for RBs than any other position.


7.) "Running backs have short shelf lives"

So, you don't want to draft any RBs? Their shelf life is rarely shorter than their rookie contract.

 

[zippo59]

I'm a little perplexed by the large amount of fans on this board who are in love with Greenway. While I don't put very much stock in measureables it does not appear that Greenway has the upper body strength or the physicality to be an elite NFL LB. This is just what I have heard, I have not myself seen Greenway play very often.

 

[Richter]

But, like with Williams, these guys will all have warts on them.

From the 21st spot it's to be expected.

Sure, but you're not spending the 21st pick on those backs. Instead, you can pick a player on the defensive side of the ball who is a better value, fits the Pats' scheme better and does not have such glaring issues as Williams does. A Lawson or Wimbley or Carpenter might be able to come in and become a big rush threat off the edge immediately, and really solidify the front seven, whereas at best a guy like Williams will split carries with Dillon, or worse, replace him if he's injured and quite possibly allow Brady to get lit up because of his blocking. Better to get a guy later who can take some carries and be groomed for the future, I think.

 

[SamBamsFan]

I don't see the Pats trading up to #10. Why? Because of VALUE. It will take either our #2 or a combination of out picks to get us there. And I just don't see it happening. BB's not one to waste picks like that.

I mean, what is the most that BB has moved up in the draft? In the 1st round, I think its 2-3 slots at most.

Didn't we move up 11 to pick Graham? It was more than 2-3.

Added this from Patriots.com trade history:
Choice was acquired from Washington for the Patriots first round pick (32nd overall), third round pick (96th) and seventh round pick (234th) of the 2002 draft.

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

Sure, but you're not spending the 21st pick on those backs. Instead, you can pick a player on the defensive side of the ball who is a better value, fits the Pats' scheme better and does not have such glaring issues as Williams does. A Lawson or Wimbley or Carpenter might be able to come in and become a big rush threat off the edge immediately, and really solidify the front seven, whereas at best a guy like Williams will split carries with Dillon, or worse, replace him if he's injured and quite possibly allow Brady to get lit up because of his blocking. Better to get a guy later who can take some carries and be groomed for the future, I think.

I could see Williams splitting much more time with Dillon than any LB not named Hawk splitting time in the Pats very complicated defense.

I really don't see BB trusting an underachieving LB like Carpenter or a green conversion project like Lawson (who is a DE) out there in his defense? Heck, he barely trusted a seasoned vet like Chad Brown in it.

 

[JJDChE]

Didn't we move up 11 to pick Graham? It was more than 2-3.

moving up from 32 to 21 isn't like moving up from 21 to 11 or 9. It would cost at least twice as much.

 

[DaBruinz]

Shoot, I don't even want a RB in the 1st (or even 2nd), but your criticisms of Williams are terrible. If you don't want a RB, just say it. Your post is a waterfall of bogus excuses.

1.) "who cares how many times he handles the ball?"

Ummm, everyone? That is one of the biggest concerns with RBs comong out of college..."Can they handle the load in the NFL?" You hear it constantly around draft time .

The issue with Williams is whether he handled the ball TOO MANY times.

2.) "for the NFL he's small"

No, he isn't. He's 5'10" 217. That's prototypical RB size. Emmitt Smith, LT, Clinton Portis, Cadillac Williams.

Sorry, you're wrong. He's only 5'9 and 214. Semantics, I know. But we're talking about his official measurements.

3.) "he's slow"

He's a 4.5-ish type guy, which is pretty standard for an NFL RB, about where Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith were. His game is vision and lateral movement, he has plenty of straight line speed. 40-yd times are low on the list of number to evaluate RB's with.

He actually ran a 4.45 at his pro-day. And I agree that he supposedly has great field vision. However, when you are going against the 2nd tier of D-1 schools, a good RB should be showing that sort of vision.

4.) "he already has plenty of tread worn off his tires"

Please. He's 23. No rookie RB has plenty of tread worn off their tires.

This is totally false. Williams has carried the ball 969 times plus 70 receptions and 37 kick-off returns for over 7800 yards.

5.) "bigger leap in terms of competition in comparison to other prospects"

People said the same type of garbage about Tomlinson.

6.) "taking a running back in the first round is always a shakier investment than other positions...and good ones can be found in later rounds"

It's been proven to be one of the least risky positions to take in the first round. It's more rare to get an impact RB on day 2 than any other position. There is a better correlation between draft position and success for RBs than any other position.

It amazing how you purposely mis-quote him. Where did he say anything about Day 2? He said later rounds. That would include the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Also, what do you use for your theory that there is a better correlation between draft position and success for RBs than for any other position? This recent "study" would disagree with you. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/04/24/ramblings/nfl-draft/3828/

7.) "Running backs have short shelf lives"

So, you don't want to draft any RBs? Their shelf life is rarely shorter than their rookie contract.

That's not what he said. Also, unless you can back up your statement, I believe its BS. The shelf-life of a RB is something like 3.5 years the last I heard. Most contracts outside of the 6th and 7th round are between 4 and 6 years. So, that would mean that Most RBs aren't making it through their rookie contracts.

 

[SamBamsFan]

I don't really like this running back class at all, honestly. Williams, Mauroney, White, none of them impress me at the top. The guys who might be value picks later on all have serious warts, except for Addai. Calhoun and Drew are both players that won't be feature backs, at least not in the Pats' offense. I'd rather take a chance on a player at a later pick, if I chose a back at all in this draft. Maybe Mike Bell or Dontrell Moore. At 21, I'm looking defense all the way. Someone for the back 7, either an linebacker with like Lawson or Carpenter, or a cornerback. My ideal scenario would probably be picking up one of the linebackers, then trading up in the second to secure a guy like Marshall, then looking for receiver, running back and line depth on both sides of the ball.

Addai doesn't have warts? He is like Michael Bennett, a beautiful runner w/ a tremendous 2nd gear, but he is consitantly getting injured & he has had fumbling issues. He is the back I would like least of the top 10. At least Kevin Faulk (who I like by the way) made it through LSU before injuries and fumbling became a problem.

 

[Richter]

Shoot, I don't even want a RB in the 1st (or even 2nd), but your criticisms of Williams are terrible. If you don't want a RB, just say it. Your post is a waterfall of bogus excuses.

1.) "who cares how many times he handles the ball?"

Ummm, everyone? That is one of the biggest concerns with RBs comong out of college..."Can they handle the load in the NFL?" You hear it constantly around draft time .


2.) "for the NFL he's small"

No, he isn't. He's 5'10" 217. That's prototypical RB size. Emmitt Smith, LT, Clinton Portis, Cadillac Williams.


3.) "he's slow"

He's a 4.5-ish type guy, which is pretty standard for an NFL RB, about where Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith were. His game is vision and lateral movement, he has plenty of straight line speed. 40-yd times are low on the list of number to evaluate RB's with.


4.) "he already has plenty of tread worn off his tires"

Please. He's 23. No rookie RB has plenty of tread worn off their tires.


5.) "bigger leap in terms of competition in comparison to other prospects"

People said the same type of garbage about Tomlinson.


6.) "taking a running back in the first round is always a shakier investment than other positions...and good ones can be found in later rounds"

It's been proven to be one of the least risky positions to take in the first round. It's more rare to get an impact RB on day 2 than any other position. There is a better correlation between draft position and success for RBs than any other position.


7.) "Running backs have short shelf lives"

So, you don't want to draft any RBs? Their shelf life is rarely shorter than their rookie contract.

On point one, you misunderstood me. He was saying that you want a guy who is handling the ball with your first round pick, which would basically limit your pick to QBs and RBs. Point two, it's not just measurables. His frame isn't ideal, and it shows in his injury history in college. Point three, he's just not that fast. I don't put any stock in 40 times, so that's not my concern. He actually timed decently there. He just doesn't play that fast, when I watched him he didn't seem like he exploded into holes. This is really the least of my concerns though, it's more that he doesn't have tremendous speed to offset his other issues. Point four, he's carried the ball a ton in college. It matters. Maybe it shortens his NFL career a few years. Not a huge concern, but it's a negative. Point five, Tomlinson was clearly leaps and bounds better than the competition he faced in college. Can't say the same for Williams, nor can you say he has talent anywhere near Tomlinson's level. Point six and seven, I totally disagree. There are plenty of teams that have manufactured later round backs, though my point really speaks to the value of the position - running backs have shorter careers on average, I don't like drafting them with such high picks at all, really. The average back's career length was 2.3 years, last I checked. That's awful. Of course, higher round picks tend to last longer, but look at first round backs over say the last seven or eight years - a significant portion either suffered major injuries or did not produce to the level that their draft position would demand. Edgerrin James blew out his knee and while still a very good back, never regained the same level of production. Ricky Williams... well, he's a special case altogether. Don't think you can really consider him. Jamal Lewis, blew out a knee, and has suffered a significant decline. Thomas Jones never lived up to his draft position, and just recently even became a productive player. Ron Dayne? Hah. Shaun Alexander and Tomlinson were hits, some of the few. McAllister blew out a knee. Bennett is wildly inconsistent, and injured. William Green and T.J. Duckett? Bleh. McGahee needed a redshirt year, so to speak, and then was terribly disappointing this season. Larry Johnson was another hit, albeit a delayed one. Steven Jackson, Chris Perry and Kevin Jones - none have lit the league on fire, Jackson is probably the best of the bunch. The jury is still out on Ronnie Brown, though he looks good, Benson has been a disappointment but we'll see, and Williams, my favorite back to come out in years has been great. So basically, in the last 8 years, there have been 4 big time hits. That's an awful track record.

 

[SamBamsFan]

moving up from 32 to 21 isn't like moving up from 21 to 11 or 9. It would cost at least twice as much.

I agree. I actually posted a thread about what it would cost to move up.
to move up to 10 would cost 21 + 52 + 86, and we'd get a 5th or 6th rounder back. I was just comenting on his statement they we have never moved up more than 2-3 slots. I'd much prefer to keep the picks, and do our moving later in the draft when it less expensive. My 2c

 

[Richter]

Addai doesn't have warts? He is like Michael Bennett, a beautiful runner w/ a tremendous 2nd gear, but he is consitantly getting injured & he has had fumbling issues. He is the back I would like least of the top 10. At least Kevin Faulk (who I like by the way) made it through LSU before injuries and fumbling became a problem.

A beautiful runner? His real wart is that he's a straight line runner. He doesn't have great change of direction. He's had some injury issues, that's for certain, though I'm more willing to take a chance on that in a later round. Curtis Martin had injury issues too. The fumbling is very overstated, his numbers in that regard aren't that bad. Also, unlike Bennett, he runs with some power, and is already a pretty good blocker. I'm not saying he's a great prospect, but I'd rather take a chance on his potential later if I was going to take a back. I don't think I would take one in this draft though.

 

[JJDChE]

The issue with Williams is whether he handled the ball TOO MANY times.

I haven't seen anyone claim that, and at his age it shouldn't be a concern anyway.

Sorry, you're wrong. He's only 5'9 and 214. Semantics, I know. But we're talking about his official measurements.

OK, my point still stands. He's not small for an NFL RB.

He actually ran a 4.45 at his pro-day. And I agree that he supposedly has great field vision. However, when you are going against the 2nd tier of D-1 schools, a good RB should be showing that sort of vision.

OK, but at what point do you say he's doing good because of competition vs. he's just good? It's a tough call.

This is totally false. Williams has carried the ball 969 times plus 70 receptions and 37 kick-off returns for over 7800 yards.

I stand by my comment. I've never seen a RB with the tread worn off his tires at 23. There have only been a few guys that I recall that flamed out by 27 because of taking too much of a beating, and those are generally the pounders, Eddie George/Earl Campbell.

I vehemently disagree that his college carries will significantly shorten his NFL career.

It amazing how you purposely mis-quote him. Where did he say anything about Day 2? He said later rounds. That would include the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Also, what do you use for your theory that there is a better correlation between draft position and success for RBs than for any other position? This recent "study" would disagree with you. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/04/24/ramblings/nfl-draft/3828/

OK, either way, first round RBs are considerably more successful than any other round, generally few RBs are successful after the second round. I haven't read that article, but I have gone through every RB drafted in the last ten years, and there are very, very few that have been successeful that were drafted after the 2nd round. I have all the data in an Excel file somewhere, I'll see if I can find it later.

I don't have any proof that the correlation is the greatest, but it's pretty high. I think there were less than 10 consistently successful RBs drafted after the seond round from 1995-2004. The success rate is quite a bit higher for most positions.

That's not what he said. Also, unless you can back up your statement, I believe its BS. The shelf-life of a RB is something like 3.5 years the last I heard. Most contracts outside of the 6th and 7th round are between 4 and 6 years. So, that would mean that Most RBs aren't making it through their rookie contracts.

The AVERAGE career for a RB is probably 3.5 years, but that includes all RBs. Most of those guys careers end because nobody wants them. How many 1st rd RBs in recent years have been out of the league before their initial contract was up?

 

[maverick4]

re

I'm a little perplexed by the large amount of fans on this board who are in love with Greenway. While I don't put very much stock in measureables it does not appear that Greenway has the upper body strength or the physicality to be an elite NFL LB. This is just what I have heard, I have not myself seen Greenway play very often.

Zippo, I'm just a fan, but I've seen a lot of video on the main linebackers this year. Greenway is one of the top 3 LB, in my opinion. Great motor, flies to the ball, a playmaker.

The knock on his strength is from the combine. He only benched 16 times, which made people think he was weak. However, you should realize that Richard Seymour only benched 18 times during his combine. So basically, take combine numbers with a grain of salt. The bottom line is, who can play on a football field? Who cares what players do in shorts, no pads, and no football involved?

 

[JJDChE]

2005 Rushing Leaders

1 Shaun Alexander (1st)
2 Tiki Barber (2nd)
3 Larry Johnson (1st)
4 Clinton Portis (2nd)
5 Edgerrin James (1st)
6 LaDainian Tomlinson (1st)
7 Rudi Johnson (4th)
8 Warrick Dunn (1st)
9 Thomas Jones (1st)
10 Willis McGahee (1st)

 

[bakes781]

What if DeAngelo turns out to be the next Tomlinson with another team? As much as I like Manny Lawson he is still considered a "project". If the Cardinals hadn't signed Edge in the offseason Wiliams would be projected to go there at 10. Same could be said of the Vikings. We can't possibly expect Dillon to last a full season. I'm not saying he's necessarily my top choice at 21 but the value is there.

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

What if DeAngelo turns out to be the next Tomlinson with another team? As much as I like Manny Lawson he is still considered a "project". If the Cardinals hadn't signed Edge in the offseason Wiliams would be projected to go there at 10. Same could be said of the Vikings. We can't possibly expect Dillon to last a full season. I'm not saying he's necessarily my top choice at 21 but the value is there.

And that value would be multiplied a thousandfold if the rapidly aging Dillon can't cut the mustard again this year. I'd hate to have to rely on a Faulk/Pass/Evans triumvrate at RB this season