ESPN: Lombardi on Pats "starting price" for Cassel

[BPF]

Lombardi also said:

"All trades have a predetermined value based on past trades," Lombardi said. "But to trade a quarterback as young as Cassel, after watching him do what he did, it doesn't happen."

Floyd Reese also agreed w/Lombardi's assesment:

"It would have to be multiple choices and very high choices to get Cassel," ESPN analyst and former Tennessee Titans general manager Floyd Reese said. "Two first-rounders, or a one and a two and a three ... It'll be something very, very expensive."

I've been saying this all along that the Pats should demand at least a 1st Rd pick and we've seen non-QB's like Jared Allen and Roy Williams fetch a pretty high bounty. I do expect that all will go well with Tom Brady's rehab and his injury although very dissapointing at the time will serve as a catalyst for this great run for this team to continue into the future because Cassel got his chance to play and showcase his abilities allowing us to get back multiple draft picks to build this team for future success.

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

Good discussion, and I have a question for you all.

Assume that an "outsranding" offer comes in for Cassel, but it seems pretty sure that Brady will not be ready till midseason (lets say he goes on the PUP to start the season).

Would you prefer for the Pats to take the offer, and build for the future, but risk not making the playoffs next year or would you not pull the trigger and hope that his value doesn't fall?

 

[tombonneau]

And the best part is a #2 in the Patriots hands is worth a lot more than a #2 for someone else because we have Scott Pioli doing the...........

oh wait........

if we got a high #2 and a #1 next year I would be pretty psyched.

Pats haven't hit on a 2nd round pick in 5 years (Branch). It is their most deficient round. Granted, they traded out of the second in 2 of the last 4 years, but still, their drafting in the second leaves much to be desired, Wheatley pending ...

 

[Spiral]

Good discussion, and I have a question for you all.

Assume that an "outsranding" offer comes in for Cassel, but it seems pretty sure that Brady will not be ready till midseason (lets say he goes on the PUP to start the season).

Would you prefer for the Pats to take the offer, and build for the future, but risk not making the playoffs next year or would you not pull the trigger and hope that his value doesn't fall?

Take a look at the division next year and guess whether the Jets, phins, and Bills will have more or fewer wins next year. I'd say at this point the that Jets and Dolphins will have fewer wins. 10-6 may win the division next year, so the Pats could win the division even if Brady gets pupped.

 

[BPF]

Pats haven't hit on a 2nd round pick in 5 years (Branch). It is their most deficient round. Granted, they traded out of the second in 2 of the last 4 years, but still, their drafting in the second leaves much to be desired, Wheatley pending ...

2nd Rd hasn't been as bad as you think. Keep in mind no team, no GM, no personnel evaluator, no coach hits on all his picks.

2008 Wheatley - Inc.
2007 None
2006 Jackson - Bust
2005 None
2004 Hill - Untimely death
2003 Wilson and Johnson - Solid SB contributing starter and Bust save for two big plays vs Tenn in '03 Divisional playoffs.
2002 - Branch - Hit
2001 - Light - Hit

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

You think things are starting up nice now just wait until the desperate, QB needy teams start upping the offer compensation for Cassel once they realize the only viable QB options this offseason will be dinosaur aged FA QB's named Warner and Garcia or a weak group of untested and unproven rookies coming out of the draft.

Can you say great ROI for the Pats?

 

[dhamz]

I really hope he is right. All Pats fans should.

His saying he wouldn't be surprised if Cassel signs here for 2 years 20 million tends to make me doubt the rest of the article. The tag is 1 year close to 15. Why does a player in Cassel's situation sign for an additonal year at just 5? Even if he stays here next year under the tag and does nothing more than hold a clipboard for Brady he would get much more than 5m as a free agent 12 months from now.

 

[emoney_33]

I would like nothing better than if potential trading partners looked at it in exactly the same way.

I'm confused, are we having a discussion about how much we could get in a trade for Cassel, or having a collective ballwashing session? I love Cassel too, but the way we feel doesn't really matter in objectively deciding what we can get for him.

I'm not saying DA is a perfect comp, I'm saying I can easily see other teams making the not too far-fetched comparison.

You grossly over simplified the matter. Do you believe that the majority of GMs don't or won't give due diligence in deciding value for a QB?

Do you seriously believe that any GM in the entire league is going to let one example of ANYTHING effect their decision making?

They will evaluate Cassel's tangibles, they will talk to people who know him, they will review his college and pro career, they will take into acount intangibles and who he has been coached by and learned from, etc...

No GM is going to say "well look at Anderson, so I lower my offer". If GMs operated this way then rookies in the 1st round wouldn't be making what they make because there are always flashes in the pan at every position almost every year.

 

[BelichickFan]

This is the perfect situation if a deal could be made :

The National Football Post | Notes From Lombardi

"I know that Minnesota is going to explore every possible idea for a starting quarterback. The Vikings know they need to make the move there; Tarvaris Jackson’s days as a starter are over in the Twin Cities."

We get to put him in the NFC, a team that needs a QB who can play now gets him and Cassel gets to go to a contender.

Win. Win. Win.

 

[amazinPats]

I've said before and still believe that the Patriots will end up signing Cassel to a new contract with the idea of replacing Brady at some point. If that doesn't work out, we are looking at a 1st and a 3rd rounder at least. Young quarterbacks with good potential are worth their weight in gold.

I think Cassel will work with the Patriots as the relationship is very good. Pats took the chance of drafting him and stuck with him thereby allowing the opportunity for him to prove himself. He likely would have been out of the league if the Pats hadn't stuck with him this season. He knows that and he'll have an open mind towards discussions about staying and signing a longer term contract.

 

[Water Boy]

Interesting point on the 2-year contract idea.

It seems that the dynamics of the un-capped year make Cassell tied up for a second year even w/o the franchise tag if he signs a franchise tender for 1 year. If the un-capped year happens, of course. That's surely a big part of Lombardi's speculation.

2 years is short enough that the Pats can't hurt Cassell too badly by trading him to a team he hates. It's also short enough that if his career fizzles over the life of that contract for any reason, he still can get another shot from somebody based on this past season.

Conversely, it's long enough that a team might trade for him and gamble on working out a long-term deal later. If he shines at a new team, the new deal is indeed very likely to happen.

Great point. I have been pondering the possibility of a deal similar to this that ties Cassell up in the short term and lowers cap implication of the franchise tender (14+ million). Seems like a win/win if the salary is garaunteed.

 

[patchick]

That said, my point is that I can see where teams might make the comparison. After all, both are around the same age, were late round picks in exactly the same draft, and so far each has put together one solid NFL season.

A team that went out and and paid a lot to acquire Anderson after his 2007 would have egg on their faces right now, and I'm not yet convinced Cassel is a particularly better bet to continue to be a top-flight QB (I agree that it does seem he's better positioned, but it's far from a sure thing).

It's funny, but I think that Cassel's lack of college experience might actually be helping him now as GMs are trying to make these decisions. He's a tabula rasa. Since you never saw him develop in college (or even the NFL before Brady went down), it's easier to project him as your dream QB with unlimited potential to take you to the promised land year after year.

And as others have said, worth is determined by the market. In this year's market, what other QB can you really pin those franchise dreams to? A 39-year-old Warner or 40-year-old Garcia? A college junior who's coming out before he's ready because of the CBA uncertainty? If I'm a GM in need of a real solution at QB, I cross my fingers, hold my nose, and throw some fancy draft picks at Matt Cassel.

 

[mgcolby]

Let's just hope other teams are willing to give up something substantial.

I know this won't be a popular sentiment, but if I was a team looking to get a QB I would look at Derek Anderson's 2007 compared to his 2008, and might be a little weary of acquiring Cassel. I know we love him around here, but he's still far from a proven commodity. I just hope someone is willing to pony up big time.

To me the separation between the have not "hot" QB's and the ones with true potential are how they progress from their first game. Guys like Anderson start off hot and then as teams get more film on them they slowly regress. Anderson was very sporadic last season and really tailed off towards the end of the year. And he had a very low completion percentage.

Cassel got better as the season progressed and was very consistent. Something Anderson has never been. And if you look back at Anderson's 2007 stats you will see that it isn't as good as some of us remember or the way the media portrayed it.



Edit: I should have read the entire thread before responding as my points were noted several times by multiple users. I didn't mean to pile on.

 

[Water Boy]

FACTS:
If you're about to spend a first round pick on a QB to rescue your nose-diving franchise, you have much more incentive to use it to get Cassel than a college QB... he will command LESS MONEY than a high-first round QB.

Great point. To put it in perspective, JaMarcus Russell got $31 Million garaunteed and Alex Smith $24 Million.

 

[Miguel]

Great point. I have been pondering the possibility of a deal similar to this that ties Cassell up in the short term and lowers cap implication of the franchise tender (14+ million). Seems like a win/win if the salary is garaunteed.

How is taking 6.6 million less in 2009 a win situation for Cassel??

 

[mgcolby]

I truly believe that if he is traded it would be for a minimum of a 1st round pick. I have felt this way for a few months now. This is a QB starved league and there are way to many examples of teams getting #1's for players with less upside.

I have felt that it would most likely come from SF (10), Chicago (18), TB (19), Det (20) or Minny (23). A long shot in my mind is a team like the Titans making a play for a QB to replace Collins. Especially after how Vince Young played in week 17. Obviously teams at the top of the draft are players as well, possibly St Louis and I wouldn't sleep on the Seahawks. They could potentially be a surprise team to enter the mix.

Again there are way to many QB needy teams for us not to get at least a first round pick.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Everyone seems to be missing what "starting price" means when you're offering a commodity. Rarely does the item go for the high 1st asking price.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

I've said before and still believe that the Patriots will end up signing Cassel to a new contract with the idea of replacing Brady at some point. If that doesn't work out, we are looking at a 1st and a 3rd rounder at least. Young quarterbacks with good potential are worth their weight in gold.

I think Cassel will work with the Patriots as the relationship is very good. Pats took the chance of drafting him and stuck with him thereby allowing the opportunity for him to prove himself. He likely would have been out of the league if the Pats hadn't stuck with him this season. He knows that and he'll have an open mind towards discussions about staying and signing a longer term contract.

For the sake of discussion, let's just say Brady comes back healthy and wants to play four more years (I know in the past, he's said he wants to play much longer, but just for grins). What do you do with two starting QBs? I'm an old guy and I remember teams doing that: the old Rams had Bob Waterfield and Norm van Brocklin, both hall of famers, share for 4 or 5 years. The 49ers had three guys share the QB position a couple of years, but one of them was mostly a running QB, like out of a wildcat position. But, we're going back 40 - 50 years here, and I don't remember it being done since. I'm sure there have been a few other times teams have intentionally shared the QB position, but it's been more out of indecision of who's better.

Again, what do you do with two proven starting QBs? I'm the type that hates to see good players move on, and I'd hate to lose either of them, but.....

 

[billdog3484]

This is pure speculation. And obsurd speculation at that.

I want to beleive too, but in the end common sense won't allow me.

I want to see Brady back starting week 1, and atleast get some compensation for Cassel, and put him in the NFC.

common sense wont allow you? so your common sense is that the patriots, one of the best run franchises in sports, is going to let a QB who was just short of great in his first full season?

to me, my common sense tells me that if we let him go for nothing we are idiots

 

[BradyBranch39]

Compare all you like, the Browns were said to have been offered Dallas' #1 and #3 last year even after the crappy 2nd half. However they turned it down as they heard Dallas would then move him to Baltimore, Cleveland's division rival. Of course, Baltimore got Flacco so the laugh's on the Browns there.

Wasn't Miami involved in this too? I think the Parcells-Dallas connection was in play.