ESPN is doing it again -

[lamafist]

Man, some of y'all should consider switching to decaf.

There really is nothing at all in this article that should get your blood up, if you don't go in looking for any possible hint of a slight or disparagement.

FootballOutsider's basic mission is bring some logic and reason to football discourse, by cautiously and rigorously applying their advanced metrics to the unsupported claims and assumptions spouted by fans and lazy commentators. The original FO essay was about the common misinterpretation of a strong correlation between a team's rushing totals, and whether that team wins, demonstrating how teams aren't wining because they're running, they're running because they're winning.

This article is essentially doing the same exploration of common assertion by a QB's "haters" that his stats only look so good because he's running up the score in blowouts. It points out that a) Brady's 1st-half stats are equally as impressive vis a vis his competition and b) that Brady hasn't made significantly more pass attempts in blowout situations than the average NFL QB. He's just more often on the fun side of a blowout situation, and in this season, there aren't really any other winning teams that have had all that many blowouts to play in.

This particular article was probably a poor fit for ESPN. In the context of FO's own site, most readers would know that chiding a team for "running up the score" is kind of outside FO's purview -- they don't care whether teams do it or not, they're just interested in figuring out how to adjust for how teams play differently in those situations in their statistical analysis. Mostly, though, it was a poor fit because it doesn't end up really telling us anything about Brady so much as it does about the dispersement of blowouts in this football season.

Oh, and incidentally -- unlike in traditional media, FO's are upfront about their team allegiances, and not asked to make any pretense of objectivity. Bill Barnwell happens to be a big Pats fan, and one of the original contributors to PatriotsDaily.com.

 

[Lampshade]

Man, some of y'all should consider switching to decaf.

There really is nothing at all in this article that should get your blood up, if you don't go in looking for any possible hint of a slight or disparagement.

FootballOutsider's basic mission is bring some logic and reason to football discourse, by cautiously and rigorously applying their advanced metrics to the unsupported claims and assumptions spouted by fans and lazy commentators. The original FO essay was about the common misinterpretation of a strong correlation between a team's rushing totals, and whether that team wins, demonstrating how teams aren't wining because they're running, they're running because they're winning.

This article is essentially doing the same exploration of common assertion by a QB's "haters" that his stats only look so good because he's running up the score in blowouts. It points out that a) Brady's 1st-half stats are equally as impressive vis a vis his competition and b) that Brady hasn't made significantly more pass attempts in blowout situations than the average NFL QB. He's just more often on the fun side of a blowout situation, and in this season, there aren't really any other winning teams that have had all that many blowouts to play in.

This particular article was probably a poor fit for ESPN. In the context of FO's own site, most readers would know that chiding a team for "running up the score" is kind of outside FO's purview -- they don't care whether teams do it or not, they're just interested in figuring out how to adjust for how teams play differently in those situations in their statistical analysis. Mostly, though, it was a poor fit because it doesn't end up really telling us anything about Brady so much as it does about the dispersement of blowouts in this football season.

Oh, and incidentally -- unlike in traditional media, FO's are upfront about their team allegiances, and not asked to make any pretense of objectivity. Bill Barnwell happens to be a big Pats fan, and one of the original contributors to PatriotsDaily.com.

footballoutsiders is great. The framing of the question in the free preview of the article is poor.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This whole thread is out of line. The Pats are running up the score in the 2nd qtr. That practice is simply uncalled for.

 

[LiveShot]

I guess "garbage time" includes the 1st half. What games has he been watching?

 

[TrueBeliever]

Back in 2008 I read an interview in Entertainment Weekly with Jon Stewart where he said he felt that the 24-hour nature of modern media is really changing our culture. To paraphrase:

Forty years ago there was only 30 minutes of news reported each night. Today there isn't more than 30 minutes of news, but we've got to find something to fill the other 23 and a half hours of airtime.

I think this is true of BSPN and its ilk as well. Even with 32 teams, there's only so much you can say about each game before you start getting repetitive, but you still have to write a column every day (or every hour or whatever). With the demand (or perceived demand) for content, you've got to find something different to talk about.

I can speak from experience as a former journalist myself. There were some weeks I was tabbed with writing the paper's editorial and there just wasn't anything to write about, but we still had to fill that space. Some of the things I wrote about were just ridiculous; or I'd take a legitimate point and beat it to death. That's the problem with all these analysts and commentators today. For every shot glass worth of good, insightful comments, there's a gallon worth of crap they put out just to have something to put out. Hence stuff like this.

 

[Deus Irae]

Since the article answers the question in the negative via the pimping of F.O., perhaps we can forgive them for daring to ask a question...


And a whole lot of you people are far too sensitive to be reading anything that's not on Patriots.com.

 

[muslimman]

That is running up the score for the Jets offense.

Cant believe no one commented on this gem. Well done.

 

[Kasmir]

Any of you who have a passing acquaintance with journalism will know that headlines and article lead ins are generally written by editors, not by the article authors. You can be certain the ESPN generated that provocative lead-in ("Tom Brady has been as good as ever. But are blowout wins distorting his real impact?") to try and maximize click through by having something for everyone, i.e. both Patriots fans and Patriot's haters.

Football Outsiders usually releases their "Quick Reads" column outside their paywall later on Tuesdays, so hopefully we can read the content then.

 

[Kasmir]

Article is now posted free to read at FO's site:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 14 Quick Reads

 

[BradyManny]

I like FO, but again, I fail to see what real difference it makes what happens in so-called "garbage-time". You can't simply discount those numbers - if anything, it slows Brady's #s down that they have gotten these huge leads of late. We were on pace to beat the Jets 8 million to nothing and largely went run only in the 4th. Other QBs in the MVP race did get to play a 4th quarter, Brady didn't, basically.

 

[BSR]

Article is now posted free to read at FO's site:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 14 Quick Reads

O.k., I have now read it and want to revise my statement and say that this is clearly some stupid analysis. This is below typical FO analysis. Their "garbage time" qualifiers make zero sense and they fail to draw a conclusion on how his numbers are actually effected by "garbage time". Very poor analysis.

 

[mosi]

ESPN is doing it again. I knew it was only a matter of time:

"...All the above make New England the NFL's best team of the moment -- the only on-field criticism I can think of is they may be peaking too soon. But this being the Patriots, there's a dark side. In 2007, Belichick admitted to years of what seemed to everyone except him as cheating. If New England returns to the Super Bowl, the sports world might have to relive Spygate -- including the unresolved questions of why Belichick wouldn't come clean until forced, and why he never really apologized. If the Patriots win this year's Super Bowl, people might wonder if they are cheating still. Probably not, but considering the elaborate, systematic nature of their previous clandestine efforts, this can't be ruled out. Many football enthusiasts, including in the league front office, might not mind if the Patriots are knocked off early in the playoffs, and Spygate: The Sequel doesn't happen."

 

[IllegalContact]

yah, well......when garbage time starts in the 2nd quarter, what can you say?

 

[Uncle Rico]

ESPN is doing it again. I knew it was only a matter of time:

"...All the above make New England the NFL's best team of the moment -- the only on-field criticism I can think of is they may be peaking too soon. But this being the Patriots, there's a dark side. In 2007, Belichick admitted to years of what seemed to everyone except him as cheating. If New England returns to the Super Bowl, the sports world might have to relive Spygate -- including the unresolved questions of why Belichick wouldn't come clean until forced, and why he never really apologized. If the Patriots win this year's Super Bowl, people might wonder if they are cheating still. Probably not, but considering the elaborate, systematic nature of their previous clandestine efforts, this can't be ruled out. Many football enthusiasts, including in the league front office, might not mind if the Patriots are knocked off early in the playoffs, and Spygate: The Sequel doesn't happen."

Was this part of the story linked by the OP? Someone else's opinion? Just curious who actually wrote it.

 

[mosi]

Was this part of the story linked by the OP? Someone else's opinion? Just curious who actually wrote it.

it is from Gregg Easterbrook and it is on the front page. Talks about the good stuff and ends with this crap.