Enjoy what is left of football guys..because next year may have a lockout

[Synovia]

I read that same article, but there are all sorts of problems with that approach. It depends on how hard of stance the players (and potentially the government) want to take.

If the union disbands and there is no CBA, then all sorts of things we take for granted could be in trouble. Take for example the draft. The rules are such that when a player gets drafted, the 32 owners and the league agree that that player can speak to and negotiate with only the team that drafted him, no one else can talk to him and he can't talk to anyone else. Essentially you have 31 owners all agreeing they won't talk to him. It's actually the textbook definition of collusion and collusion is illegal at face value.

But then one may ask: How do they currently get away with doing something illegal? Well, it's not illegal if it is something collectively bargained. Also (and here's where the government comes in) there are various anti-trust exemptions for professional sports. Earlier this year, the US Supreme Court ruled that the NFL was indeed 32 separate entities, not 1 single one. The potential ramifications of that ruling are huge if there is no CBA.

If there's no draft, there's no NFL. Its as simple as that. Its pretty much the only way the small market teams have of bringing in talent.


Can you imagine the attendance of a small market team, when they went 4-12 one year, and can't convince any decent players to sign because they can't afford to compete with the big market teams, and they can't win?

I think you'd see 6 teams fold in the first 5 years, and you'd be down to about 16 teams in 10-12 years.

 

[alamo]

But earlier this year, the US Supreme Court ruled that the NFL was indeed 32 separate entities and not 1 single entity. The potential ramifications of that ruling are huge if there is no CBA.

It's not quite that bad... the ruling limited the scope where the league was "32 separate entities", the league as a single entity for some purposes has not been ruled against. It's unclear exactly where the dividing line is, but everything I've seen says the draft is pretty safe. Especially since the draft was collectively bargained (even if its continuation is due to the league's last offer to a disbanded union.)

 

[jBru]

The owners will lose signficantly more money in 1 year of lockout than they'd lose in 10 years of the current "unfavorable CBA". They know that.


This isn't the NHL where the league is pretty much insolvent because of the CBA. We're talking about differences of 5% or so of total revenue. Neither side is dumb enough to sacrifice a year of revenue to try to get the other side to come up 5%.

The owners aren't making nearly as much as you think. Nearly 60% of revenue goes to the players. Stadium costs including debt service are huge. On average the owners are probably earning less than 10% of the pie (they claim even less).

If the owners could increase their share by just 2%, I think it would certainly be worth losing a season for them. Not so for the players. But no union is going to happily agree to an obviously worse contract.

I think games have to be lost before the union accepts the inevitable.

 

[condon84]

All I needed to know how this COB negotiation was going to turn out was when the NFLPA appointed DeMaurice Smith as their President who will lead them. He's a non-football person who'll look at this strictly as a business negotiation. The NFLPA is being asked to give up a portion of the pie that they've gotten fat off of the since last negotiation. Why on earth would a smart business man ever agree to this type of deal?

 

[jBru]

If there's no draft, there's no NFL. Its as simple as that. Its pretty much the only way the small market teams have of bringing in talent.


Can you imagine the attendance of a small market team, when they went 4-12 one year, and can't convince any decent players to sign because they can't afford to compete with the big market teams, and they can't win?

I think you'd see 6 teams fold in the first 5 years, and you'd be down to about 16 teams in 10-12 years.

Not likely. See major league baseball. Teams which are unable to afford to maintain their current salaries would simply shed salary.

But the union has to ask what impact an unequal league will have on total player income. Right now the biggest financial beneficiary of the draft is veteran players. If the union gets decertified its really just a legal tactic. The outcome of these negotiations will be determined by economics, not law.

 

[Wolfpack]

It's not quite that bad... the ruling limited the scope where the league was "32 separate entities", the league as a single entity for some purposes has not been ruled against. It's unclear exactly where the dividing line is, but everything I've seen says the draft is pretty safe. Especially since the draft was collectively bargained (even if its continuation is due to the league's last offer to a disbanded union.)

That's why I say it depends on how hard line of a stance the players (or the government) wants to take. Yes, the Draft is 100% safe as long as it has been collectively bargained. But I was responding to a post mentioning the hypothetical possibility of the owners implmenting their last, best offer unilaterally - in other words, no more CBA.

I don't think there's a chance in hell we're ever going to reach that point of no return, but the fact of the matter is that anyone who tells you they know for sure what is going to happen is lying. No one knows what could happen - especially if grandstanding politicians jump in and start threatening whatever antitrust protections the NFL has and is still clinging to.

The USSC ruling applied to trademarks and marketing. But it certainly set what the NFL will view as a dangerous precedent, and make no mistake about it: The NFLPA was very happy with that ruling. Here's what ESPN's John Clayton had to say on that ruling:

"The NFL's argument was that it was one entity instead of 32 teams. The Supreme Court ruled that strategy deprived the market of competition. What could have worked for hats could have worked against the players who help market those hats.

Antitrust lawsuits have been the benchmark of the NFLPA's ability to be a strong labor union. Baseball has broad antitrust exemptions, but the NFL has to go to court to fight for that type of leverage. Without a collective bargaining agreement, the NFL draft is considered illegal for antitrust reasons."

 

[Synovia]

Not likely. See major league baseball. Teams which are unable to afford to maintain their current salaries would simply shed salary.

But the union has to ask what impact an unequal league will have on total player income. Right now the biggest financial beneficiary of the draft is veteran players. If the union gets decertified its really just a legal tactic. The outcome of these negotiations will be determined by economics, not law.

Basketball has a draft, which means there is cost controlled talent.

 

[Wolfpack]

If there's no draft, there's no NFL. Its as simple as that. Its pretty much the only way the small market teams have of bringing in talent.

Eh, I'm not so sure. In the NFL, the lion's share of the revenue comes from TV, which is shared equally. This isn't like baseball where you have one team literally bringing in 10 times the TV revenue as some other team. There would still be a salary cap in place. If every college player who declared himself eligible became a UFA, it still wouldn't allow the Dallas', Washinston's and New England's of the world to buy championships.

Can you imagine the attendance of a small market team, when they went 4-12 one year, and can't convince any decent players to sign because they can't afford to compete with the big market teams, and they can't win?

I doubt it would be all that different from the attendence of small market teams having crappy years right now, such as Carolina or Buffalo or Detroit. Those teams are having a hard time selling out every single game, but they are in no danger whatsoever of going under.

I think you'd see 6 teams fold in the first 5 years, and you'd be down to about 16 teams in 10-12 years.

I think the TV revenue alone would prevent any team from folding.

 

[jBru]

All I needed to know how this COB negotiation was going to turn out was when the NFLPA appointed DeMaurice Smith as their President who will lead them. He's a non-football person who'll look at this strictly as a business negotiation. The NFLPA is being asked to give up a portion of the pie that they've gotten fat off of the since last negotiation. Why on earth would a smart business man ever agree to this type of deal?

Because in a one year lockout his members will lose about 30 times as much revenue as they would lose per year by simply accepting the owner's proposals.

A full 2% reduction in the player's pie would be insignificant for them. A lost season, however, would be catastrophic. It is this unequal situation that is driving the current negotiation. The more Smith focuses only on money, the better off everyone is.

 

[Synovia]

single game, but they are in no danger whatsoever of going under.
I think the TV revenue alone would prevent any team from folding.

If there's no draft because there's no CBA, I don't think there'll still be shared revenue.

 

[Wolfpack]

Basketball has a draft, which means there is cost controlled talent.

Basketball has pre-determined, slotted salaries for rookies based on where they were drafted. Baseball has a draft where you will literally see a team pass on what they consider to be the best player because they don't think they would be able to afford to sign him. No baseball team has folded in the past in what? 50 years? The small market teams who can't sign big players adapt by having ridiculously small payrolls. The same thing would happen in the NFL. No team would go under, you'd just see some teams become like the Pittsburgh Pirates or the KC Royals. (But, as I mentioned in a different post, the salary cap/floor would prevent that from happening).

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I had to do a 30 page research paper on CBA's in sports...and from what i read and what has happened in the past...a lockout is due in a major sport weather it be the NBA which has a higher chance of a lockout, or the NFL. I know both sides can afford to lose the money but it is always like that and every major sport has had their lockouts.. i just dont feel good about this one