Emerging PatsFans problem

[RayClay]

Meanwhile, the following New England Patriots defensive players will be unrestricted free agents in calendar year 2013:

Ron Brace
Trevor Scott
Tracy White
Niko Koutouvides
Aqib Talib
Kyle Arrington
Marquice Cole
Derrick Martin
Patrick Chung

In addition, one has to question the durability of cornerback Ras-I Dowling and the quality of performance of safety Steve Gregory to date.

Well, that's kind of normal churn too IMO. We actually have a case of just purging players in the 2011 team with Meriweather, Bodden, Butler and Wilhite. We suffered having to watch that secondary, even though it must have had a positive effect on chemistry.

BB must have gulped to flush all those picks down, but that's why he's great, he's got balls.

Most of those you mentioned probably get a quick look when the time comes. No game breakers there IMO.

As far as Brace and Dowling, I'm guessing, if they aren't bad apples, they get a chance to play themselves off the team. Too much upside if their heads are in the right place. No one knows with Chung, I guess. I hope my speculation about a chronic shoulder is wrong, but it would explain his lack of ferocious hitting we expect. hard to lay the licks with a bad shoulder.

 

[manxman2601]

I wouldnt make that assumption, Im sure he'd love to have the #1 defense in the league and Im sure hes trying to field the best D he can, he just hasnt found the right combination right now but I think he will, in the meantime as long as the offense scores more than the defense, that gives us a W.

But where's the evidence for his desire to field a league leading defense? Sure we traded up twice last year for defensive players, but one of those was to replace a quality FA we lost (Andre Carter) and the other one was at a position which was already arguably our strongest defensive position grouping. Our safety position has been a revolving door of mediocrity and we blitz less than any other team in the league save the Bills. BB's entire defensive philosophy centers around contain and a defense that doesn't attack will struggle to be considered anywhere near the top defense.

 

[ATippett56]

But where's the evidence for his desire to field a league leading defense?

From 2007 to 2011, the New England Patriots have drafted more defensive players than offensive players in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft:

2007 NFL Draft
1st Round - Brandon Meriweather

2008 NFL Draft
1st Round - Jerod Mayo
2nd Round - Terrence Wheatley
3rd Round - Shawn Crable
3rd Round - Kevin O'Connell

2009 NFL Draft
2nd Round - Patrick Chung
2nd Round - Ron Brace
2nd Round - Darius Butler
2nd Round - Sebastian Vollmer
3rd Round - Brandon Tate
3rd Round - Tyrone McKenzie

2010 NFL Draft
1st Round - Devin McCourty
2nd Round - Rob Gronkowski
2nd Round - Jermaine Cunningham
2nd Round - Brandon Spikes
3rd Round - Taylor Price

2011 NFL Draft
1st Round - Nate Solder
2nd Round - Ras-I Dowling
2nd Round - Shane Vereen
3rd Round - Stevan Ridley
3rd Round - Ryan Mallett

12 defensive players selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft versus 9 offensive players selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft from 2007 to 2011.

New England Patriots All-Time Draft History - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Unfortunately Meriweather, Wheatley, Crable, Butler, McKenzie were all cut prior to the commencement of the 2011 NFL Season.

 

[supafly]

From 2007 to 2011, the New England Patriots have drafted more defensive players than offensive players in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft:

2007 NFL Draft
1st Round - Brandon Meriweather

2008 NFL Draft
1st Round - Jerod Mayo
2nd Round - Terrence Wheatley
3rd Round - Shawn Crable
3rd Round - Kevin O'Connell

2009 NFL Draft
2nd Round - Patrick Chung
2nd Round - Ron Brace
2nd Round - Darius Butler
2nd Round - Sebastian Vollmer
3rd Round - Brandon Tate
3rd Round - Tyrone McKenzie

2010 NFL Draft
1st Round - Devin McCourty
2nd Round - Rob Gronkowski
2nd Round - Jermaine Cunningham
2nd Round - Brandon Spikes
3rd Round - Taylor Price

2011 NFL Draft
1st Round - Nate Solder
2nd Round - Ras-I Dowling
2nd Round - Shane Vereen
3rd Round - Stevan Ridley
3rd Round - Ryan Mallett

12 defensive players selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft versus 9 offensive players selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft from 2007 to 2011.

New England Patriots All-Time Draft History - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Unfortunately Meriweather, Wheatley, Crable, Butler, McKenzie were all cut prior to the commencement of the 2011 NFL Season.

No doubt, and if you take away the 2011 draft (4 of 5 players on offense) the numbers are even more dramatic.

Even better, if you add the picks from the 2012 draft, it's not even close either.

Really, 2011 was the anomoly to the fact that every draft in the past 6 years has been extremely defensive in the higher rounds.

 

[ATippett56]

Even better, if you add the picks from the 2012 draft, it's not even close either.

The whole point of the exercise was to illustrate that the New England Patriots organization did not ignore the selection of defensive players in the NFL Draft prior to this year.

 

[supafly]

But where's the evidence for his desire to field a league leading defense?

I think that the evidence is certainly there, but you are also right in stating that his approach has changed once he realized that he simply doesn't have the players to do what he wants, specifically in the secondary.

I would definitely guess that his approach was not what you are stating going into each season, but that is has indeed become that due to being forced to play with what you have.

The higher draft picks in rds 1-3 have been insanely pro-defense in the last 6 years, with 2011 being the one exception.

It goes even deeper if you examine the first 2 rounds alone in the past 6 years, with 14 of the 17 picks being on defense.

There's also the fact that many free agents were brought in to address some of these issues too, which is even more glaring.

There's no way in hell that I would think that Bill Belichick would be okay with witnessing what is going on defensively, and that even despite the bend but don't break scheme and the somewhat lucky (at times at least) turnovers, they still work their butts off every single week to try and do everything in their power to improve and play better.

It's the secondary that's killing them obviously, just look at the horrible glaring stats. They have actually allowed more passing yards than the offense has gotten this year, and they are scoring 33.2 pts per game. Their 3rd down ratio is 50/112. Their 4th down ratio is 5/11. They put 37 points on the board and it still doesn't secure them a victory until :15 seconds are left on the clock and the opposing QB makes a mistake (or the FG kicker misses a chip shot, or the WR drops an easy pass) etc, etc.

That just CAN'T be the acceptable gameplan that they go into every week, it just can't.

 

[supafly]

The whole point of the exercise was to illustrate that the New England Patriots organization did not ignore the selection of defensive players in the NFL Draft prior to this year.

I didn't see anywhere that he had excluded this season, but I'll take your word for it.

The point is that they have drafted pro-defensively in the past 6 yrs, so Belichick has indeed tried to field a good defense.

 

[ATippett56]

There's also the fact that many free agents were brought in to address some of these issues too, which is even more glaring.

Neither cornerback Shawn Springs nor cornerback Leigh Bodden worked out in the long term.

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2010 Patriots Salary Cap Footnotes and Documentation Page

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2010 Patriots Salary Cap Footnotes and Documentation Page

 

[manxman2601]

From 2007 to 2011, the New England Patriots have drafted more defensive players than offensive players in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft:

2007 NFL Draft
1st Round - Brandon Meriweather

2008 NFL Draft
1st Round - Jerod Mayo
2nd Round - Terrence Wheatley
3rd Round - Shawn Crable
3rd Round - Kevin O'Connell

2009 NFL Draft
2nd Round - Patrick Chung
2nd Round - Ron Brace
2nd Round - Darius Butler
2nd Round - Sebastian Vollmer
3rd Round - Brandon Tate
3rd Round - Tyrone McKenzie

2010 NFL Draft
1st Round - Devin McCourty
2nd Round - Rob Gronkowski
2nd Round - Jermaine Cunningham
2nd Round - Brandon Spikes
3rd Round - Taylor Price

2011 NFL Draft
1st Round - Nate Solder
2nd Round - Ras-I Dowling
2nd Round - Shane Vereen
3rd Round - Stevan Ridley
3rd Round - Ryan Mallett

12 defensive players selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft versus 9 offensive players selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft from 2007 to 2011.

New England Patriots All-Time Draft History - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Unfortunately Meriweather, Wheatley, Crable, Butler, McKenzie were all cut prior to the commencement of the 2011 NFL Season.

I think that the evidence is certainly there, but you are also right in stating that his approach has changed once he realized that he simply doesn't have the players to do what he wants, specifically in the secondary.

I would definitely guess that his approach was not what you are stating going into each season, but that is has indeed become that due to being forced to play with what you have.

The higher draft picks in rds 1-3 have been insanely pro-defense in the last 6 years, with 2011 being the one exception.

It goes even deeper if you examine the first 2 rounds alone in the past 6 years, with 14 of the 17 picks being on defense.

There's also the fact that many free agents were brought in to address some of these issues too, which is even more glaring.

There's no way in hell that I would think that Bill Belichick would be okay with witnessing what is going on defensively, and that even despite the bend but don't break scheme and the somewhat lucky (at times at least) turnovers, they still work their butts off every single week to try and do everything in their power to improve and play better.

It's the secondary that's killing them obviously, just look at the horrible glaring stats. They have actually allowed more passing yards than the offense has gotten this year, and they are scoring 33.2 pts per game. Their 3rd down ratio is 50/112. Their 4th down ratio is 5/11. They put 37 points on the board and it still doesn't secure them a victory until :15 seconds are left on the clock and the opposing QB makes a mistake (or the FG kicker misses a chip shot, or the WR drops an easy pass) etc, etc.

That just CAN'T be the acceptable gameplan that they go into every week, it just can't.

You see I'm not convinced that just the number of defensive picks necessarily suggests BB is striving for an outstanding defense. Leaving aside the secondary picks which could mean he's looking for a shutdown secondary but could also mean he's simply drafting to replace earlier mistakes, the front 7 players are largely contain type players rather than attacking ones. Ron Brace was a typical run defending NT that offered little in the way of penetration. Spikes is an outstanding in the box player but lacked the range to be anything more. Cunningham was a set the edge OLB rather than a pass rusher (in fact we passed on the better outside rush guy on that Florida team), Jones was merely replacing some of the sacks lost from Carter and Anderson, Hightower is another run stopper and Mayo is the only one that could have been considered an attempt to get an elite defense. I'm not criticising the picks, they were ideal for what BB wanted - a defense built to stop the run - I just don't think they're proof BB was gunning for a dominant defense.

 

[RodThePat]

Team Game Finder Query Results - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Thank you!

 

[Deus Irae]

You see I'm not convinced that just the number of defensive picks necessarily suggests BB is striving for an outstanding defense. Leaving aside the secondary picks which could mean he's looking for a shutdown secondary but could also mean he's simply drafting to replace earlier mistakes, the front 7 players are largely contain type players rather than attacking ones. Ron Brace was a typical run defending NT that offered little in the way of penetration. Spikes is an outstanding in the box player but lacked the range to be anything more. Cunningham was a set the edge OLB rather than a pass rusher (in fact we passed on the better outside rush guy on that Florida team), Jones was merely replacing some of the sacks lost from Carter and Anderson, Hightower is another run stopper and Mayo is the only one that could have been considered an attempt to get an elite defense. I'm not criticising the picks, they were ideal for what BB wanted - a defense built to stop the run - I just don't think they're proof BB was gunning for a dominant defense.

Are you putting forth the theory that BB went overwhelmingly defense in the top 2 rounds in an attempt to built a "meh" defense?

 

[Kontradiction]

Are you putting forth the theory that BB went overwhelmingly defense in the top 2 rounds in an attempt to built a "meh" defense?

Wouldn't be any worse than last year's "Bill has designed a defense to let the opponent in the red zone so they can shorten the field and get a better opportunity for a stop. Just look at the red zone numbers!", argument.

 

[manxman2601]

Are you putting forth the theory that BB went overwhelmingly defense in the top 2 rounds in an attempt to built a "meh" defense?

No. This board is delightful at building straw man arguments.

 

[lamafist]

I don't think anyone means to suggest that the Pats' historic run of success these past 10+ years renders them impervious to criticism. This year's defense is not good, and nobody need pretend otherwise.

The problem, as I see it, is all the rending of garments and shaking of fists at the sky that often goes along with the criticism. People should be capable of venting their frustration and disappointment without getting so inappropriately angry.

There's no call to hate a player just because he underperforms our expectations. Nobody's more aware of it than the player himself, and I guarantee you that he hates letting down his teammates. So why are you angry and spiteful? If you get pleasure for ragging on a player to the point where you're practically gleeful when he screws up and validates your prediction, than you have a little growing up to do.

Also, you should remember that even the worst NFL starter at any position is better than 99.99% of the people who want his job, so you come off more than a little ridiculous when you call him "pathetic" and a "loser."

When it comes ragging on the coaches, fans need to accept a few basic truths. First of all, many of you are seriously, seriously overrating the impact of in-game play-calling. Even the most sought-after offensive coordinators aren't paid as much as your average JAG starter. If there play-calling were as critical in deciding a game's outcome as people act, they'd be paid like star QB's -- and maybe more, since they don't count against the salary cap. It also doesn't make sense considering that when teams bring in a new coordinator, no matter how successful he was at his previous gig, whether his unit gets better or worse is pretty much 50-50.

Secondly, we need to accept the limits of our understanding of the game. If the extent of your analysis is that they need to "blitz more" or "play shotgun less," you're not actually making a sensible critique. It's like telling your mechanic to use his wrench more.

Finally, when it comes to team-building, we need to have some perspective, both on the macro and micro levels. As the OP pointed out, the Patriots have been the most successful team over the last 10+ years. Hell, we've played in 5 of the last 11 Super Bowls. That isn't a fluke. However many mistakes Belichick has made -- and he's had plenty misfires -- other coaches and GMs have made many more.

Every team whiffs on draft picks at a really high rate. Even in the first round, the success-rate is less than 50%. By the second round, at most positions, you're lucky if 25% ever become meaningful contributors. FA acquisitions aren't that much more reliable. Nobody's saying you need to be happy with the return-on-investment we've gotten at the safety and cornerback positions. I'm not. But people who start throwing around phrases like "completely unacceptable" or the ever-popular "pathetic" seriously need to look around the league and get a little perspective.

The TL;DR -- I get that passionate fans have strong feelings about their teams, but is it really too much to expect people to act like grown-***** men and women?

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Team Game Finder Query Results - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Holy hell the gap between the Pats and next up in win%, points for, and point differential over that time period is insane.

 

[Deus Irae]

No. This board is delightful at building straw man arguments.

But your argument doesn't make any sense, if that's not your theory.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

No. This board is delightful at building straw man arguments.

I agree with all that you wrote. I will add in relation to the bolded that it also takes commitment which I'm not sure is there. By that I mean that if you want a top NFL defense, you have to commit whole-heartedly to it as the Texans have done. You need to hire a quality DC, you need an aggressive defensive gameplan and you need both high draft picks and the best free agents to make it happen. The Texans have proven it's possible but I don't think BB will go in that direction. All he's looking for is a defense that keeps us in games and allows our offense to win them. That's fine for the regular season, I'm just not convinced it's a recipe for success in the post-season.

You said hes only looking for a defense to keep us in games, not trying to build an elite defense, Im sure hes trying to build the best defense in the league, doesnt mean hes gonna do it though, Im sure hes not just trying to build a mediocre defense to keep us in the game for Brady to win.

 

[manxman2601]

But your argument doesn't make any sense, if that's not your theory.

You said hes only looking for a defense to keep us in games, not trying to build an elite defense, Im sure hes trying to build the best defense in the league, doesnt mean hes gonna do it though, Im sure hes not just trying to build a mediocre defense to keep us in the game for Brady to win.

Well I suppose it defends on ones definition of "meh".

I said that he wants to build a defense that keeps us competitive. I see little evidence that he's tried to build a dominating defense. Yes he's spent a lot of defensive picks but those have largely been on containing type players, not the type of attacking players that one normally associates with dominating defenses.

I'm not even being negative about it, it's entirely possible that he's unable to assign the necessary resources to build such a defense. The highest pick we had in the last three years was #17 and at that time had a potentially desperate need for a LT, a pick I loved then and now, so there no getting a JJ Watt for example. I said earlier that safety has been a revolving door of mediocrity, well to be fair to BB, the safety position in the NFL is almost defined by mediocrity anyway (as was last years draft save Barron and Harrison Smith). But the truth is, we haven't attacked our defense in the way the Texans have and that's what you need to do if you want to be the best: No recognised DC, no big FA signings on defense.

Having said all that, I do have a lot of positivity going forward although I don't think we'll ever be a top defense without some philosophical changes. I'm a big fan of McCourty at safety and hope that the move is permanent. I'm hopeful that the Talib trade can give us success and that he'll become a long term fixture. I'm a big fan of Hightower and hope BB uses him properly.

I'm not being a downer, I just think any defensive ambitions we have for the Pats should be tempered to account for BB's defensive philosophy.

 

[FosterTheSkins]

Any year that berths a playoff spot is a good season in my book.

 

[Ring 6]

misleading.

what does that have to do with the defense?

Because allowing fewer points and winning games is the purpose of defense.
You were being sarcastic I suppose.