Forget the National polls. The only number that counts is 270. Kerry finished 18 short of that in 2004. Karl Rove in today's WSJ concedes all of Kerry's blue states to Obama (252), as well as Iowa and New Mexico. This leaves Obama four short of 270. All McCain needs to do do is hold 2004 red states of FL, NC, VA. OH, MO and NV to get 274. If McCain loses one of these states, Obama is the next President. Obama Hasn't Closed the Sale - WSJ.com What Rove fails to mention is that McCain trails in all of these states, except for NC, which is tied.