Welcome to PatsFans.com

Egypt and Israel

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Holy Diver, Jan 31, 2011.

  1. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    10,800
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +6 / 0 / -0

    Now, I know one or two or five protesting guys on the streets is not a great cross-section of Egyptians, but watching CNN over the weekend, they aired some interesting views of the "revolution"

    All week we had been told the Egyptian people want "freedom", they want a government that is less corrupt, they want a dictator out.

    Missed in a lot of the translation, is the peace they have had with the neighboring country to the east, Israel.
    =========================================================
    Egyptian protester claims they will ‘destroy Israel’ | Raw Story

    "All the people hate [Mubarak]!" one protester shouted. "He's supporting Israel! Israel is our enemy. We don't like him... Israel and America supported him. We hate them all. We don't like them!"

    "How do you get the president out of the country?" Robertson asked.

    "By revolution," the protester replied.

    =========================================================
    This wasn't the only protester they showed who said things like this.

    Made me and my wife say "Uh Oh..." as soon as we heard it.
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2011
  2. Real World

    Real World Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    26,287
    Likes Received:
    23
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -1

    I've seen a lot of the same lately. I'm not sure we're going to like what we see when the dust settles. You know all the fundamentalist regimes and organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas, AQ, the Iranian ayatollahs, etc. are all working to insert themselves into the coming power structure, or at least move to mold what the new government will be. Not good if you ask me.

    Another thing to consider, is what happens to the Suez Canal. If, and I'm simply specualting for the sake of discussion here, Eqypt moves toward a hardline, fundamentalist, Iran/AQ/Hamas type governent and restricts access to the Suez Canal, what would happen? Oil would likely spike in cost, and the fundamental government could then blackmail western economies to a degree, as well as gain revenues from the canal to use as funding for it's causes. Would the west allow that to happen? Hmm... Could you see a situation where a couple of years down the road some unfriendly radical government runs the Suez in such a way that the western nations get together and take the SC by force? Crazy I know, but it isn't completely improbabale is it? Well maybe.
  3. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    10,800
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +6 / 0 / -0

    RW,

    Agreed. I'm reading an interesting take on this over at global research:

    ===========================================================
    found this quote to be telling: The Middle East at a Strategic Crossroads: Threat to US Hegemony?

    "The U.S. posturing as neutral, “not taking sides,” could appease and mislead American public opinion, but to Arab and especially to Egyptian public opinion even neutrality is viewed as hostile and condemned in the region as a double standard when compared with the U.S. siding with similar moves for change elsewhere in the world, let alone that this neutrality contradicts the western highly valued democratic values at home."
    ===========================================================

    I think were being fed a BS sandwich here by our wussified media. But thats not exactly shocking either, is it?
  4. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2009
    Messages:
    5,384
    Likes Received:
    15
    Ratings:
    +20 / 0 / -1

    #54 Jersey

    Egypt's peace with Israel has never been popular among the Egyptians. Part of it is the indoctrination of the Egyptian people under Nasser and the effect that it has had on Egyptian perceptions of Israel to this day. It is not unlike the average American's feelings for Russia, which are still shaped, to a large extent by the anti-Soviet propaganda of the 1950s and 1960s.

    Opinion polls in the Arab world about Israel are perhaps the most interesting, because Egypt tends to have among the least favorable views of Israel; even lower than Saudi Arabia and the Palestinians. I'm not home right now, but I can dig up some of that info when I get home.

    The abrogation of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty is a near certainty in the post-Mubarak world.
  5. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2009
    Messages:
    5,384
    Likes Received:
    15
    Ratings:
    +20 / 0 / -1

    #54 Jersey

    The Muslim Brotherhood has been beating this drum for a long time, and it's definitely a troubling development we're seeing here. Egyptian Islamists have been dreaming of doing something like this since 1979. Though Sunni, they admired that revolution, and had no issue with the anti-American overtones.

    It took our media about three days to really pay this situation the attention it deserves. The "head in sand" approach has worked during previous unrest in Egypt (2004-2006), but this is different, and the whole world is paying attention now.
  6. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2005
    Messages:
    37,502
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +29 / 0 / -5

    Israel is in big trouble, when the Muslim Brotherhood starts killing them off will it finally be the "End Of Israel" always remember this Obama guy and most of America's "new ledt wing liberals" turned on Israel like snakes.

    It seems like it happened overnight the amazing change in America's Left Wing, they went Anti Semetic in the blink of an eye and Obama certainly has no love for Israel the Israeli's know that now.
    Israel shocked by Obama's betrayal of Mubarak | Reuters

    IS OBAMA REALLY A MUSLIM AT HEART
    IF ANY OF YOU HAVE RELATIVES IN ISRAEL YOU BETTER GET THEM OUT
    ISRAELI'S IN ISRAEL IF ANY OF YOU READ THIS I HAVE NEWS FOR YOU, AMERICA'S LEFT WING LIBERALS ARE NOW IN A DEEP PASSIONATE LOVE AFFAIR WITH MUSLIMS, SO, WATCH OUT.

    POOR LITTLE ISRAEL SURROUNDED BY THEIR ENEMY GOD HELP THEM
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2011
  7. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ---- JAG ----- PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    36,492
    Likes Received:
    18
    Ratings:
    +24 / 1 / -0

    #87 Jersey

    In the back of everyone's minds ... and we all know it ... 2012.

    2012 ... is there and every worldwide problem will be magnified now.

    NEM nodding his head thinking of all the times he brought up the RAPTURE in this forum.
  8. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2005
    Messages:
    37,502
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +29 / 0 / -5

  9. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2005
    Messages:
    15,671
    Likes Received:
    11
    Ratings:
    +11 / 0 / -0

    That's funny! Fogbuster is nodding too.
  10. Real World

    Real World Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    Messages:
    26,287
    Likes Received:
    23
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -1

    I really need to arm myself. 2012 has popped into my mind a couple of times. What was it Nostrodamus said too?
  11. Triple-T

    Triple-T Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2005
    Messages:
    241
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Yeah. Maybe Egypt will gang up with Jordan and Syria and finally stop that Israeli problem for good!

    :rolleyes:


    Egypt better be careful or they'll end up like Sudan.
  12. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2009
    Messages:
    5,384
    Likes Received:
    15
    Ratings:
    +20 / 0 / -1

    #54 Jersey

    I kind of agree with the cynicism behind this post. Egypt may have numbers and fancy military equipment, but Israel would likely mop the floor with Egypt in a conventional war. Though Israel has struggled somewhat with 4GW in the last few years, they, like the US, are still masters of 3GW.
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2011
  13. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2005
    Messages:
    37,502
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +29 / 0 / -5

  14. chicowalker

    chicowalker Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2010
    Messages:
    12,378
    Likes Received:
    8
    Ratings:
    +14 / 0 / -0

    only in harry's fantasy land
    (which would be, btw, the world's worst amusement park -- even worse than the creation "museum" thing down in Kentucky)
  15. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,528
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    The 4GW coverage is spotty where I live sometimes. Either that or I need to download the OS software...

    seriously I'll bite. What the hell are these acronyms?
  16. Triple-T

    Triple-T Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2005
    Messages:
    241
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Fourth Generational Warfare. 4GW.

    I tend to disagree with Nikolai here. I think Israel understands 4GW pretty well and they are exceptional at 3GW. Israel is not going to fall to any of these middle eastern nations, with or without US assistance.
  17. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2009
    Messages:
    5,384
    Likes Received:
    15
    Ratings:
    +20 / 0 / -1

    #54 Jersey

    Thanks for the clarification on the 4GW. I was in a rush and didn't feel like typing it out. I'm also wireless illiterate and forgot that 3G and 4G are cell phone thingies; thanks for reminding me Mr. P. :singing:

    I agree that Israel understands 4GW very well, but they have struggled with it, because I'm sure you know that the media angle is a very important part of the overall concept. Israel has improved, as can be seen from the Gaza conflict, but those lessons were learned the hard way in 2006 and during the Al Aqsa Intifada. Personally, I think Israel has introduced some interesting concepts for waging 4GW, but I'm not so sure they will be wholly applicable to the American experience in the Middle East.

    In the end, I agree with you. Israel is not in any existential danger from the Egyptian military, but that border crossing at Rafah may become a real problem.
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2011
  18. patsboy44

    patsboy44 Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2010
    Messages:
    65
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Will be interesting to see its effect on Israel in the next few months.
  19. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,528
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    Certainly hard to be optimistic. I'll add a couple zigs from the standard viewpoint, without any great amount of certainty:

    - Muslim Brotherhood long ago renounced violence in Egypt. We don't know whether that goes away once they are one of a number of parties vying for power, or if they take power. Observers place them at getting between 30-40% of the vote, if there was a real-life election there.

    - El Baradei, thus far, seems at least passably popular there. He can at least participate in the demos without getting lynched. He may end up being the Chalaby of Egypt, but it seems like he's a legit alternative. We don't know yet.

    - Nobody dares say or hope it, but what if "the people", as a mass of people, can accept the "cold peace?" What if they do elsewhere in the Arab world?

    Thread this needle correctly and the false choice of autocrat vs. theocrat goes away... we'll see.

    A "stay tuned" situation. My gut says the "optimism window" is pretty narrow, from a pro-Israeli point of view. I take a certain amount of comfort from the relatively non-violent nature of the protests thus far, but I have trouble seeing a stable Egyptian government that honors its current relationship with Israel.

    From the POV of an Egyptian? At least they can make choices I don't like democratically (even if they were previously making choices I do like autocratically.)

    It's kind of hard to condition one's happiness on someone else's subjugation. What a lovely surprise it would be if we didn't need dictators to rule in Arab nations, once their own populations rise up.

    That's the thing about democracy: it's not "the will of the people so long as that's convenient to American (or Israeli) policy objectives."

    PFnV
  20. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2005
    Messages:
    37,502
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +29 / 0 / -5

  21. sdaniels7114

    sdaniels7114 Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2006
    Messages:
    5,742
    Likes Received:
    7
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0 / -0

    Its not like we installed this guy as "President" in the first place, right? I wouldn't doubt that the CIA was involved to some extent, but its safe to say that they didn't leave any fingerprints behind, right?

    I'm really not in the mood for another Ayatollah.
  22. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2005
    Messages:
    37,502
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +29 / 0 / -5

    Has anybody ever seen Mubaracko's birth certificate........:confused:
  23. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,528
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    He won't show it because his given name is Muburack Soetero and he was born in Honolulu.
  24. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2009
    Messages:
    5,384
    Likes Received:
    15
    Ratings:
    +20 / 0 / -1

    #54 Jersey

    That's correct. We did not.

    Hard to do that when you're not involved. Think about how Mubarak came to power, what had to happen for him to come to power, and the backdrop of the American political experience in the ME at the time, and you'll realize that CIA involvement isn't likely.

    The good news is that the Muslim Brotherhood have a very different idea of governance and foreign policy than Khomeini did. Whether or not the US will like what they do is another matter.
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2011
  25. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2005
    Messages:
    6,665
    Likes Received:
    8
    Ratings:
    +8 / 0 / -0

    If the Muslim Brotherhood gains power and if they or another party who were to gain power renounce the peace treaty with Israel, you can forget about the Israelis ever even entering into negotiations with the Palestinians or Syria....ever.
    And that money they (Egypt) get from the US annually would disappear really quick....
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2011
  26. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,528
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    Pretty pivotal moment. To the Egyptians' credit (or perhaps to the credit of the rosy picture drawn by the networks here, depending on your spin,) they seem to be ignoring provocations for the most part. Most recently, gangs of Mubarak loyalists were evidently lobbing bottles & bricks at crowds, trying to draw them into clashes (a handy excuse for police action & legitimization of the police's role.) Nobody's biting. Yet. It's about to get ugly, I fear, since Mubarak's speech... all reports say the protesters don't like the idea of Mubarak serving out his term, and they don't much like the idea that he'll die on Egyptian soil (as he has vowed.)

    Thus far, no one party has bolted to pursue its own post-Mubarak interests - all are acting pragmatically, not "looking past this game."

    This isn't a Muslim Brotherhood revolution, and the other protesters aren't some bunch of ignorant peasants being led by the nose. But economically, and in terms of recent experience and widespread availability of information, I don't see the U.S. preventing that as an ultimate outcome.

    We're stuck doing what the people of Egypt have to do: trust the people of Egypt. It's heartening that from what I've seen, you can't rule out El Baradei. I like to believe that he's a possibility. I don't know the internal politics.

    I do know that given the dependence of Europe on Middle East oil and anything coming through Suez (China just uses the Pacific to get to us... not so Europe), and the interdependence of the world economy, closing the Canal will get them a world of hurt. I hope for the sake of the people there they don't go that route -- but thus far, that's an ungrounded fear, other than the fact that we had an ally in Egypt keeping the Canal open.

    I greatly fear polarization there, and things don't look good from that perspective. But an eventual accomodation with reality is overdue in that region, so we'll see what it yields.

    PFnV
  27. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,528
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    Unless we mean ongoing CIA involvement. Sadat was our boy in Egypt, no doubt. he was also viewed as an elitist dandy, a reputation Mubarak never suffered from. After the assassination, Mubarak continued the cold peace, albeit without any promise of an eventual thaw (something that people thought was possible under Sadat, although, well, that's what got him killed.)

    My understanding is that what we know of Sadat's assassination is that it was effected by army officers who were against peace w/Israel. There's a narrative that says it was an Islamist act with a geopolitical trigger, and there's a narrative that says it was a cell in the army, perhaps with Islamist involvement. I think the conspiracy theorists have made room for Mubarak himself in both narratives.

    I'm no expert on that event, but I also don't think CIA influence just vanished with Sadat. In that sense, if you're of a mind to "blame America" (which thank God, the protesters seem to be doing only small amounts of,) you can string together the rationale.

    PFnV
  28. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2005
    Messages:
    37,502
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +29 / 0 / -5

    White House Calls For Non Violence

    But It Supports The Rioters


    :rofl::rofl::rofl:
  29. chicowalker

    chicowalker Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2010
    Messages:
    12,378
    Likes Received:
    8
    Ratings:
    +14 / 0 / -0

    What's the quote, harry? I'm guessing that (i) you haven't actually read anything and are just repeating what some blogger at drudge said and (ii) the WH's stance is reasonable.

    (We'll probably never know, though, since you seem to be allergic to facts.)
  30. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2009
    Messages:
    5,384
    Likes Received:
    15
    Ratings:
    +20 / 0 / -1

    #54 Jersey

    Yeah, the US loved them some Sadat. He had no choice but to run to us after it became apparent that the US was going to have the upper hand in the Middle East and in the global economy (vice the USSR).

    Perhaps, but the fact that Mubarak himself barely escaped death in the attack is pretty good evidence for me that he probably wasn't involved in the planning. Putting oneself in the sights of multiple AK-47s shows poor planning ability. ;)

    I buy into the Islamist angle, personally. Many of Sadat's actions angered the Islamists exclusively; peace with Israel, hosting the Shah of Iran, his crackdown on Egyptian Islamist groups in the weeks before his death, allowing his wife to dance with another man, etc. I tend to take Islambouli at his word. Why would he lie? Ockam's Razor is pretty applicable here. Besides, at the time, most people though Mubarak would last a few years, tops. A lot of uncertainty surrounded his ascension to power.

    On a side note, Americans are becoming more and more enamored with Arab-style conspiracy paranoia. It's a fantastic coping mechanism, but it also conditions people to accept that they have no power in this world. That's a disturbing development in our current political climate.

    I'm rather skeptical about the amount of CIA influence in Sadat's decision-making, but it was clear in Mubarak's early days that he didn't wholly trust the US. In fact, he's made something of a habit of thumbing his nose at the US, especially on the democracy agenda.
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2011

Share This Page