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Economic Recovery?

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatriotsReign, Apr 5, 2010.

  1. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    Those looking for economic bright spots will not find it in foreclosures or bankruptcies.

    "More Americans filed for bankruptcy protection in March than during any month since the federal personal bankruptcy law was tightened in October 2005, a new report says, a result of high unemployment and the housing crash.

    Federal courts reported over 158,000 bankruptcy filings in March, or 6,900 a day, a rise of 35 percent from February, according to a report to be released on Friday by Automated Access to Court Electronic Records, a data collection company known as Aacer. Filings were up 19 percent over March 2009. The previous record over the last five years was 133,000 in October."


    Steep Increase in Personal Bankruptcies in March - NYTimes.com

    More bankruptcies mean less buying power and consumption. This trend will result in a significant decrease in the overall consumption by Americans...especially those who choose to buy on credit as there is no credit available to those who choose bankruptcy. It means people are choosing to "start over" and that means frugality.
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2010
  2. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Any economist with a pulse will inform you that foreclosures/bankruptcies are TRAILING economic indicators. Chances are those numbers will continue to increase for a while. Look for the same with small banks.
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2010
  3. PatriotsReign

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    Shmessy.....you somehow always seem to sniff out these posts. I'm amazed.

    I wasn't trying to say that they are leading indicators. You also can't tell this has all been "factored into the markets" because no one could predict this.

    But let's look at the stock market which historically has been a leading indicator. I say we'll experience another crash within a year. We are getting close to the historic high which was based on an artificially inflated economy. In my opinion (no one elses), it should not be anywhere near 12,000 right now....but yet, there we are.

    The new economic reality is we won't see GDP numbers like 2004/2005 for a long, long time...in your opinion, why has it increased to the level it's at now?

    There are sooo many false/misleading economic indicators & reports, it's a wonder how anyone can truly know where we stand. Take retail sales for just one example. Most reports show them being up over the last 2 months. But these reports are based upon "same store sales" which don't indicate OVERALL retail sales at all since most large retailers have closed 10% of their worst performing locations.

    Even among the most highly respected experts, we have those who believe 12,000 (Dow) is for real and those who believe that another major correction is eminent.
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2010
  4. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Short-term stock market levels mean very little. ISM and productivity numbers are better indicators of economic levels.

    Once again, foreclosures/bankruptcies are TRAILING indicators.

    You wrote: "This trend will result in a significant decrease in the overall consumption by Americans...especially those who choose to buy on credit as there is no credit available to those who choose bankruptcy. It means people are choosing to "start over" and that means frugality."

    I have news for ya. People who declare bankruptcy or have foreclosure do not have money problems all at once at the time of the official filing. Almost always, those folks have been hanging on by their fingernails for upwards of 12-24 months before actually signing off. Their spending has ALREADY been curtailed for quite some time.

    You're pointing at a cold corpse and exclaiming "Oh, look, that person has a growing cancer!!!".

    I'm going to trot out the Gretzky quote again for you if it still hasn't gotten through.
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2010
  5. PatriotsReign

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    I "think" you forgot to comment on several other points I made....namely;

    Regarding bankruptcies...I think it is a trend that will continue. And as an FYI...many who head into bankruptcy will PLAN it and spend even more in the period leading up to the filing.

    "IF" this trend continues, it will remove possibly millions from the potential home owners pool. They will become renters and we all know renters spend considerably less on almost everything.

    You may have a "the sun is breaking through the clouds" view, I don't know. But I have a suspicion the storm has stalled out above us. No one knows which is true...even the market experts.
  6. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

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    #24 Jersey

    Is that FYI based on factual statistics or is that something you think in your head because you heard about it?

    Even if someone who was unemployed and in the process of losing their home (which, from your own article, seems to be the case with most bankruptcies being filed today) were to bypass charging his family's much needed food and shelter costs on his credit card in favor of taking a trip to Hawaii and buying season tickets to the Patriot's games - it's going to screw up his bankruptcy to the point where not only will he most likely not even be allowed to file but he's now liable for fraud charges on top of it.

    Anyone with half a brain knows that they do a "look back" when you file bankruptcy. If they don't "know" it - I'm sure they at least "think about it" and most people facing ruination will really try to make sure they don't do anything which makes ruination worse.

    The information is not hard to find.

    When you file bankruptcy and meet with a bankruptcy trustee, that trustee will go through your records meticulously. If he or she finds a pattern of excessive spending in the weeks or months before you filed, those charges will not be waived as part of your bankruptcy.

    It’s easy for the trustee and for courts to detect a spending spree. All they need to do is look at your credit card statements. If you file for bankruptcy, the courts get full access to all your banking documents, including credit card statements. Know that they don’t just look at your purchase records. They also consider cash advances and new loans.

    If you go on a pre-bankruptcy spending spree, you will get caught. On top of getting pinned with fraud, your entire bankruptcy case may be thrown out and you could wind up liable for every debt you’ve ever had. You can also take others down with you. If you take out a cash advance before filing bankruptcy and then give the money to a friend or family member, the courts will trace it. If your bankruptcy case is closed and you are liable for the cash advance but cannot pay it, then the creditors can go after the person to whom you gave the money.




    Spending Excessive Money Before Bankruptcy is Fraud - BillSavings.com
  7. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey


    ................
  8. PatriotsReign

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    Yes, I already knew all of the above without even looking on the internet. As long as you charge right up to a period just prior to your initial filing (like one year), you can get away with it. And of course one has to be smart about it. You don't go on trips or purchase boats. I also said "many", not most or a good percentage.

    It's JUST SOOOO FUNNY how you pick one statement that was fairly insignificant out of the many significant statements I made. It's almost...(I said almost because I know this isn't true) as if you don't like me MrsP. But even if that were the case, it would be isignificant (like a flea) to me. As a matter of fact, I would take GREAT pleasure in you not liking me.

    How's your day going?
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2010
  9. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    I guess you'd beat me in hockey....

    BTW....great point on the training wheels...one with which I whole-heartedly agree.
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2010
  10. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Message to PR: It's not about you.

    It's about this point of debate. MrsPFiV wrote a to-the-point post. You replied with questions about how her day is going and whether or not she likes you. It would be so much better for this discussion if you had something pertinent to counter with.
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2010
  11. PatriotsReign

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    Nothing here is about ME...I'm a grown man and I realize that.

    In 9 out of 10 cases, you'd be correct. But if you came here more often, you'd learn that she purposefully attempts to find fault with posts. Yes, I realize that's hard to believe, but it's true.

    I rarely comment on her posts....she's amazingly attracted to commenting on my posts. Go figure! But with all due respect shmessy, MrsP doesn't need for you defend her.

    Why did you feel compelled to do so?
  12. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

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    #24 Jersey

    ROFLMAO You can't even make up your mind about your own feelings, can you?

    Which is it - is my not liking you as insignificant as a flea or does it give you GREAT pleasure?

    Insignificant things very seldom give great pleasure - unless you're really hard-up - and seeking that attention you claim you don't want.

    Shmessy is right, you know. I made a valid point, in fact it was a point Shmessy had made, too, and you gave him a fairly dignified response and yet when I said it - you turned it into a personal attack on yourself and attacked me in retaliation.

    It's not about "you," PR. It's about what people do or don't do before filing for bankruptcy. You make blanket statements about whole groups of people you know nothing of and then, when called on it, you backtrack, whine, posture, change your position and blame other posters for harrassing you personally.

    It gets old....but not old enough to quit calling you on it.
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2010
  13. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Because I saw a to-the point post by MrsPFiV in the midst of a pretty good discussion be hijacked (or forfeited) by a fleeing-to-the-hills escape into personalizing by your reply. (And now, MrsPFiV is taking the bait and the thread is spiraling away from the subject.....that's how illuminating threads die).

    Don't let it go, PR. You have some points here. Don't be lazy - - the discussion is a good one. I can't speak to all the other threads you reference, but in this one, the discussion had been very much on-point.

    For me, I have no time for the shenanigans - - either it's a worthwhile thread or it isn't. I don't waste my time in the sandbox when there are other things to do.
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2010
  14. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

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    #24 Jersey

    Sorry, Shmessy....it's sometimes hard for me to be graceful. I get tired of being accused of stalking, of being called "honey," and "my brother," and just generally being treated like a girl who's incapable of making a valid point or pointing out an obvious error.

    Please accept my apology and I promise not to divert another thread.

    MrsP

    If I can, in an attempt to redirect the thread back in the proper direction - are there any recent statistics on how many of these bankruptcies are being caused by medical bills? I know that was a problem awhile back - although some disputed the figures. It would be good to know if there are causes at work other than the well known unemployment crisis and mortgags being underwater.

    I, personally, don't think all that many people "plan" their bankruptcies a whole year ahead of time. Maybe that's just me, though. I tend to regard bankruptcy as a last resort - and not something that's cold-bloodedly plotted for 12 months or so.
  15. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    Jeez! If this was 5th grade, I'd say Mrs and PR have a crush on each other!

    I won't tell PFinV.
  16. PatriotsReign

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    Golly gee...is it THAT obvious?:blush:
  17. PatriotsReign

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    Both pain & pleasure if you please!

    My point regarding people who run up charges prior to filing for bankruptcy was the most minor point of my post. Yet you HUNT & PECK for any descrepancy you can find...can't you just admit it?

    I call many people here "mon frere"....just ask Darryl.

  18. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

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    #24 Jersey

    If it's in the post, PR, it's subject to discussion. Sorry. That's how it works.

    You can call anyone you want here "mon frere," PR - so long as they've got the equipment to be your brother. I happen not to have it.

    Could we please get on with the actual discussion, now?

    Maybe you could answer my question regarding the number of bankruptcies which are caused by medical expenses.

    That would be a good place to get back on track.
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2010
  19. IcyPatriot

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    #87 Jersey


    She was working NEP ... but he was banned ... :eek::eek::eek:
  20. PatsFanInVa

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    LOL what I see is...

    "Hey look, a gurl!!!"

    Grow up dudes.

    Sorry you're losing another argument, PR. Here's a thought - worry less about who likes you, and more about making valid points.

    You kids play nice now :)

    PFnV

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