Early look at 2009

[dhamz]

Vrabel hasn't been the same player this year. He really appeared to be slowing significantly at the end of last year. It probably is time for him to move from an every down player to a situational role like Bruschi has taken on. The question is who would take the remaining snaps from him. Woods doesn't appear to be that guy. Crable will probably get a shot to win a role in this offseason.

 

[Urgent]

This is always interesting, anytime during the season.

I think the line-up originally posted includes far too many players coming back.
A quick count shows 57 players retained, essentially a full roster with a couple on IR, or 0% turnover. You could asterisk some of the practice squad types and say they are essentially new.

However, most years there are 10-15 new players through free agency and the draft.

Next year should be no different.

I would expect some significant turnover on defense.

At OLB, the current group of Thomas, Vrabel, and Woods has failed to generate a consistent pass rush. Thomas has been good, but has certainly not replicated the numbers he had in Baltimore. Vrabel has had a down season. I think there will be a new player here, whether free agent or top rookie.

Similarly at safety, there has been a lack of big plays from the squad of safeties. Meriweather and Sanders has not been a great unit. I expect some change here as well.

At OL, I don't expect LeVoir and Britt to both return as back-ups.

And so on down the line. Basically, if the past is any indicator, that number of returning players will be closer to 40 than 57.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

But that's not the Pats' scheme, and it has never been under Belichick. You can say the same thing about the Steelers too, and they're certainly not in the "smaller and faster" category. The Pats experienced success with the 3-4 just as the Giants have more recently had success with the 4-3 - you don't need to start playing a 4-3 because of that, though. The point of having smaller and faster guys (like a Mathis or a Tuck) is to shoot the gaps in the run and beat blockers in the pass. McGinest, Vrabel, or Colvin never did that, even when they were all great pass rushers.

problem is that when you can't identify the bodies to exactly execute your scheme, you have to adjust your scheme........

the pats simply have to get more athletic....mostly at OLB and S

I believe wilfork and seymour will be extended......

on offense, it would be nice to get someone like jason smith for LT and move light over to the right side and move kaczur inside when neal finally falls apart

RB's like rashad jennings and devin moore would be good to add........jennings is big and fast, and moore is like darren sproles

the pats need a blocking TE who can pancake a 4-3 DE the way graham used to.....our TE's ain't really catching the ball in this scheme anyway

 

[pats1]

This is always interesting, anytime during the season.

I think the line-up originally posted includes far too many players coming back.
A quick count shows 57 players retained, essentially a full roster with a couple on IR, or 0% turnover. You could asterisk some of the practice squad types and say they are essentially new.

However, most years there are 10-15 new players through free agency and the draft.

Next year should be no different.

I would expect some significant turnover on defense.

At OLB, the current group of Thomas, Vrabel, and Woods has failed to generate a consistent pass rush. Thomas has been good, but has certainly not replicated the numbers he had in Baltimore. Vrabel has had a down season. I think there will be a new player here, whether free agent or top rookie.

Similarly at safety, there has been a lack of big plays from the squad of safeties. Meriweather and Sanders has not been a great unit. I expect some change here as well.

At OL, I don't expect LeVoir and Britt to both return as back-ups.

And so on down the line. Basically, if the past is any indicator, that number of returning players will be closer to 40 than 57.

Right, but my projection was at the beginning of the offseason. There will obviously be a player or two released, but it's hard to project that right now. And generally the Pats will re-sign incumbent players who will not make the next year's roster, they will sign new players who will not make it, and they will draft players who won't make it either. But this list is before any of that happens (i.e. if Britt and LeVoir are beaten out, it will most likely be by a player off the radar right now - a FA or draft pick).

And the thing is, I don't have all that many UFAs (since ERFAs and RFAs are almost always re-signed here) being re-signed. There are only the obvious role players: Izzo, Evans, Hochstein, Paxton, probably Hanson, probably Gaffney, and probably Wright (if he doesn't go somewhere else). That is generally how it goes (last year it was Izzo, Paxton, Washington, Gaffney, and the obvious Bruschi and Moss - the Pats don't have those big name UFAs like they did last year, plus your usual ERFAs/RFAs, of which there were less).

 

[pats1]

Similarly at safety, there has been a lack of big plays from the squad of safeties. Meriweather and Sanders has not been a great unit. I expect some change here as well.

Right, I agree, and I think we will most certainly see an upgrade there - Sanders is the obvious choice. But I have Sanders being re-signed because there is currently no depth to speak of. If you can pick up a safety in free agency to start alongside Meriweather, then Sanders would make a good backup. I think the Pats will draft a safety as well, which will probably leave Tank out of the mix, unless they decide to use him in more of a ILB/sub role like they did in camp. That's why I have him re-signed as well, but pretty much for the minimum.

The Pats usually do re-sign the free agents they want to retain before the free agency period starts (especially in the case of lower-level deals like Izzo and Evans). I do not think this will be the case for Sanders or Williams.

 

[pats1]

Just out of curiosity, does anyone disagree with what I have for Rodney and Bruschi?

 

[Iron Helmet]

I think Gaffney will be challenged to keep his job via a significant addition. He drops at least 1 critical ball a game, and this is usually not well tolerated by BB.

Bruschi will be phazed out and the process of phazing out Vrabel will begin with a significant addition at the OLB spot.

As far as CB, don't count out Wheatley. He was starting to show glimpses of pro level talent before his injury. However, I still feel a significant addition will be made here.

Comfortable with the safety situation, though I do think they will ask Merriweather to add 8-12 pounds of size in the offseason.

Also, look for a kick returning specialist to be added. Personally, Slater has shown me nothing but straight line speed. We can do better.

By significant, I mean a strong FA acquisition or draft pick in the first 3 rounds.

 

[pats1]

I think Gaffney will be challenged to keep his job via a significant addition. He drops at least 1 critical ball a game, and this is usually not well tolerated by BB.

Bruschi will be phazed out and the process of phazing out Vrabel will begin with a significant addition at the OLB spot.

As far as CB, don't count out Wheatley. He was starting to show glimpses of pro level talent before his injury. However, I still feel a significant addition will be made here.

Comfortable with the safety situation, though I do think they will ask Merriweather to add 8-12 pounds of size in the offseason.

Also, look for a kick returning specialist to be added. Personally, Slater has shown me nothing but straight line speed. We can do better.

By significant, I mean a strong FA acquisition or draft pick in the first 3 rounds.

The only one I disagree with is Gaffney. Yes, he has dropped some balls, but he is only a third receiver, works well with Brady, and there is nobody behind him who could take over that role. But yes, he is upgradeable.

 

[WhiZa]

Just out of curiosity, does anyone disagree with what I have for Rodney and Bruschi?

I agree with that assessment. Though it would be really tough to lose them in the locker room. The D becomes young again.

 

[WhiZa]

Here are the counts:
QB: 3
RB: 5
TE: 3
WR: 8
OL: 12
DL: 7
LB: 11
DB: 9
ST: 4
Total: 62

8 to 11 draft picks depending on comp selections

That leaves 6 to 10 FA or UDFA signings. Doesn't seem like we'll be making a big splash in FA this year.

 

[bronk37]

we need a shut down corner, and i would like to get a veteran db in case hobbs gets hurt. As far as D pressure goes it dissappeared in the eagles game when colvin went down, colvin as much as people dog him was a sack specialist he had speed off the edge and forced teams to focus on him leaving vrable free to attack on the left side. I actually liked having adalius lined up in the middle because he is excellent in coverage and he is big enough to blitz or stuff the middle. Thomas is a decent pass rush guy but I dont think he has the same speed or repetoire of moves that colvin had.

 

[Mike the Brit]

That's what I'm trying to figure out. I just took a look at some tape from the Titans playoff game and the Eagles Super Bowl. Lots of blitzes, and more importantly, lots of impact on the QB (including a key intentional grounding penalty on McNair when he threw it away with Rodney coming in clean on him).

Ah! Empirical research. I like that! My two cents is that a lot of successful blitzing came from Rodney. I think that we miss having a really dominant run-stopping, blitzing, punishing safety.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

we need a shut down corner, and i would like to get a veteran db in case hobbs gets hurt. As far as D pressure goes it dissappeared in the eagles game when colvin went down, colvin as much as people dog him was a sack specialist he had speed off the edge and forced teams to focus on him leaving vrable free to attack on the left side. I actually liked having adalius lined up in the middle because he is excellent in coverage and he is big enough to blitz or stuff the middle. Thomas is a decent pass rush guy but I dont think he has the same speed or repetoire of moves that colvin had.

I agree with you on AD

 

[mgteich]

I ignore future contract players who are likely Practice Squad guys. The exception is that I will include Dillard as a roster player since otherwise you are short a defensive back. Also I include Bruschi in the analysis since I don't see him retiring before the draft.

OFFENSE (28 competing for 27 current roster spots)
1) At QB, RB, TE and WR, there are no changes, except that Brady and Maroney are back to replace Cassel and Jordan. That certainly seems right.
2) At OL, you have competition at RT with O'Callaghan coming back to compete with Levoir and Britt for the two roster spots.
3) I agree with your re-signings of Evans, Gaffney, Hochstein and the ERFA's. I might not bother to tender Britt. I suppose a low tender doesn't make much difference. Also, Gaffney might not re-sign, which would mean that we would likely sign another free agent WR.
4) Your analysis shows that the offense is ready to play, even before the draft.
5) There will be the usual complement of low priced free agent to complete the Training Camp Roster.
6) For me, this analysis is fine, but hides the needs at TE and OG. We have gotten little prodcution out of the TE position since Graham left. Both starting guards (and Yates) are free agents after the 2009 season. We need to develop replacements or we need to re-sign Neal and Mankins.
7) The reason for so many roster spots (27), is that four of the WR rarely catch a ball. They are STers. So, we really have four STers disguised on the roster as wide receivers. We could consider as many as three to be vulnerable to defensive STer's.

DEFENSE (26 competing for 23 current roster spots; could be as high as 26 depending on how many linebackers are kept)
1) The DL is fine as long as we re-sign Wright and extend Seymour, Wilfork and Green. Otherwise, we have a serious need at DL.
2) We have 11 LB's competing for what are now 8 spots. I have no issue since I don't expect Ruud to make the team. And I expect that at least one of Izzo and Alexander won't be back. This position is fine coming into camp. We have another year to see how Woods, Crable and Redd develop. Until then, I am fine with Vrabel and Thomas. In a good world the three youngsters will get increasing time during the season. I see a need for yet another young ILB, unless Vrabel is being moved inside. So, in the end, one more young stud would be great.
3) We've reloaded at corner. We have Hobbs and the kids. We need to see what we have with Wheatley, Wilhite and Richardson. Hobbs is the "old vet". We'll look for a top corner in the draft, but I suspect that we have our youngsters. We will sign 2-3 vets for camp. Personally, I would like to see the three we have now come back to camp. We might find someone better in free agency, or not.
4) You "solve" the initial safety problem by re-signing James Sanders, Tank Williams, Spann
and Dillard. We need to upgrade here. I think the upgrade will be forced because I think this year's JAG, James Sanders, will get more from another team than we will give him (as did Gay and Wilson).

BOTTOM LINE
We can start free agency with a bunch of re-signings of our own free agents. We usually do. We might sign a someone from somewhere else in the first week, or not. As belichick likes to do, the above plan gets us ready to play before the draft. The draft is all about upgrades and future development. We should as small a set of critical needs going into the draft as possible. The last two years, we need a safety and then a linebacker. We did fine with Meriweather and Mayo. Guyton was a bonus.

The reality is that this team will be much better with Tom Brady back. The offense is fine now. It will be great again next year. The defense has player getting older and less effective, and youngsters stepping up to replace them, as has always been the case.
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I guess if I could have three wishes for the offseason, my wishes would be
A) a healthy Tom Brady
B) health for the rest of the players; for example Maroney and A. Thomas
3) one game changing defensive back

I know many (including me) have said that we have won with less. But the fact is that Otis Smith would be the best back we have, by far. And he played opposite Ty Law. Similarly at safety. Milloy is gone and was replaced by Harrison. So who do we have now? Meriweather is OK and will improve more, but James Sanders is no Harrison.

Well, it's never too early. So here's an early look at how I think the Pats will approach the beginning of their offseason, whenever it shall come:

Quarterback:
Retained: Tom Brady, Kevin O'Connell
Re-signed: Matt Gutierrez (ERFA)
Depart via FA: Matt Cassel (UFA)

Running back:
Retained: Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Re-signed: Heath Evans (UFA)
Not re-signed: LaMont Jordan (UFA)

Tight end:
Retained: Benjamin Watson, David Thomas
Re-signed: Tyson DeVree (ERFA)

Wide receiver:
Retained: Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Sam Aiken, Kelley Washington, Matthew Slater
Future contract: Maurice Price
Re-signed: Jabar Gaffney (UFA), Ray Ventrone (ERFA)

Offensive line:
Retained: Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, Nick Kaczur, Billy Yates, Ryan O'Callaghan
Future contract: Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell
Re-signed: Russ Hochstein (UFA), Mark LeVoir (ERFA), Wesley Britt (RFA)
Injury settlement: Barry Stokes

Defensive line:
Retained: Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Jarvis Green, Le Kevin Smith
Future contract: Titus Adams
Re-signed: Mike Wright (UFA)
Injury settlement: Kenny Smith

Linebacker:
Retained: Mike Vrabel, Adalius Thomas, Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Shawn Crable, Bo Ruud
Future contract: Darrell Robertson
Retire: Tedy Bruschi
Re-signed: Pierre Woods (RFA), Eric Alexander (RFA), Larry Izzo (UFA), Vince Redd (ERFA)

Defensive back:
Retained: Brandon Meriweather, Ellis Hobbs, Terrence Wheatley, Jonathan Wilhite
Future contract: Mark Dillard
Re-signed: James Sanders (UFA), Tank Williams (UFA), Antwain Spann (ERFA), Mike Richardson (ERFA)
Retire/Not re-signed: Rodney Harrison (UFA)
Not re-signed: Deltha O'Neal (UFA), Lewis Sanders (UFA), Jason Webster (UFA)

Special teams:
Retained: Stephen Gostkowski
Future contract: Tom Malone
Re-signed: Lonie Paxton (UFA), Chris Hanson (UFA)

...I put the secondary in bold because that's where I think the most change could come. I have Sanders and Williams both being re-signed, but it could go either way. Meriweather, Wheatley, Hobbs (for now), and Wilhite are the obvious base, and how the Pats go about (re-)building around that, I am not sure. Could be FA, could be a draft, could be a mix.

 

[mgteich]

I responded to the format you provided. You give us a good start. I see no reason to believe that Bruschi will retire before we make decisions, so I added him to you list and ended up with 63 players before free agency and the draft.
============================================
ANOTHER ROSTER FORMAT

OFFENSE (18)
QB (2) Brady, O'Connell
RB (3) Maroney, Faulk, Morris
WR (4) Moss, Welker, GAFFNEY, Aiken
TE (2) Watson, Thomas
OL (7) Light,Mankins,Koppen,Neal, Kaczur,HOCHSTEIN,Levoir

DEFENSE (18)
DL (5) Seymour,Wilfork,Warren,Green,WRIGHT
LB (6) Thomas,Vrabel,Woods,Mayo,Guyton,Bruschi
DB (7) Hobbs,Wheatley,Wilhite,Richardson,Meriweather,J.SANDERS,WILLIAMS

SPECIALISTS (3)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) HANSON
DS (1) PAXTON

SPECIAL TEAMERS (7) usually six are active
ST (7) EVANS, Washington, Slater, Ventrone, Izzo/Alexander, Spann, Redd

BACKUPS (7) often inactive
QB (1) Gutierrez
RB (1) BJGE
OL (2) Yates, Callaghan/Britt
TE (1) DeVree
DL (1) Smith
LB (1) Crable

Practice Squad Level Players (8)
WR Price
OL Connolly, Wendell
DL Adams
LB Robertson, Ruud
S Dillard
P Malone

BOTTOM LINE
We would now be ready for the off-season of upgrades from our 63 man squad. We have tentatively filled 53 roster spots plus 8 Practice Squad spots. In addition, we have an Izzo/Alexander and O'Callahgan/Britt occupying the same roster spots for now, resulting in two extra players. My suspicion is that this may settled before the free agency begins, either with retirements or by not tendering.

In order to ready without additions, we need to re-sign the following or replace them.
Gaffney, Hochstein, Wright, James Sanders, Evans, Paxton and Hanson. This is NOT a tall order. The more serious issue is to focus on extensions for those key players who are FA after the 2009 season: Seymour, Wilfork, Green, Mankins and Neal. If any of these players is not extended, this would create a greater draft need than the need for upgrade at any position.