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Early Line - Houston At New England

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by RI Patriots fan, Jan 5, 2013.

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  1. RI Patriots fan

    RI Patriots fan Rookie

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    New England - 9.5


    I'm actually surprised it was that much.
  2. TheBeers

    TheBeers Rookie

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    I'm seeing -4 to -5.5
  3. RI Patriots fan

    RI Patriots fan Rookie

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  4. TyronePoole

    TyronePoole Banned

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    -10 on sportsbook

    gg Texans
  5. TyronePoole

    TyronePoole Banned

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    where? I'm hammering that
  6. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Yep, -10 on sportsbook.com for me too.

    That's about 3 or 4 points higher than I would have initially guessed myself.

    I think too many are looking at it through the lens of the Dec.10th game personally.
  7. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I think he means that's what he is seeing it at himself.
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2013
  8. TinhWoodhead

    TinhWoodhead Rookie

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    Too friggin' high for a playoff game!
  9. RI Patriots fan

    RI Patriots fan Rookie

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    I was thinking about -7.5
  10. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think it is a little high, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes up during the week. I am sure the Texans didn't give betters any confidence in them after tonight's performance.
  11. TheBeers

    TheBeers Rookie

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  12. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    i would never take -10 in the playoffs
  13. dannydyn

    dannydyn PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    That kind of a high line (no matter if justified) I hope doesn't jinx us.
  14. TheBostonStraggler

    TheBostonStraggler Rookie

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    A spread is not just about the ability of one team to win, it is also about how much action comes in on one particular team. NO DOUBT that a ton of money will come in on the Patriots. Anything less than a touchdown would invite almost all money to come in on the Patriots....
  15. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    You must be thinking of the last time we won an early December game by scoring into the 40's and blowing the other team out, only to host them again a month later in the divisional round after the first round bye.

    I believe it happened in the 2010 season ;)
  16. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    a vegas sports line doesn't jinx you.....
  17. vuudu

    vuudu Rookie

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    We had the exact line against the Jets in the divisional round as well....
  18. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    That's way too high. The Pats are the clear favorite, and they're capable of blowing alot of teams out the water but let's not lose sight that this is a battle of 2 12-4 teams.
  19. QB12

    QB12 Rookie

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    Sure hope our guys are taking the Texans a lot more seriously than most of us are.
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2013
  20. BananaRepublican

    BananaRepublican Banned

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    A jinx is when your QB is lighter than a duck.
  21. BananaRepublican

    BananaRepublican Banned

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    It's about encouraging Texans money to flow. They can be wiped out by too much NE money (or Texans money for that matter).

    Lines get set by what the bookmakers think the betting public will accept to split the money like 51-49%. If that fails they will move the line. Doesn't matter how ridiculous the spread is - they will move it to avoid a possible catastrophe.

    The line normally gets back to reflecting sound football but not always. And the bookies don't care. They have one thing on their minds and it's green.
  22. goheels22002

    goheels22002 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Matt Schaub is a stiff and the Patriots figured out how to neutralize JJ Watt. Give the points.
  23. BananaRepublican

    BananaRepublican Banned

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    You're wondering this about a Bill Belichick team in the playoffs with Brady breathing 10 foot flames from his nostrils all week?
  24. NewFeep

    NewFeep Rookie

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    Well, I am taking the Texans seriously and I am sure the Patriots will too. If both teams bring their A game the Patriots should beat them by more than a touchdown. 31 to 20, 21 that sorta deal but that's why we play the games right? I'm sure by game day the spread will be right around 7. Plus or minus a point either way......

    I don't believe in jinxs, mojo, or Andrew Luck!
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2013
  25. BananaRepublican

    BananaRepublican Banned

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    Schaub really isn't very impressive. Since he can't do diddly without a big day from Foster and the Pats pretty much know what to expect from Foster, errr, I just don't see Houston having any shot whatsoever.

    Well, except lighting in a bottle, seven fumbles, Brady getting distracted by a girl in the stands, laughing gas disabling the defense, etc.
  26. RhodyPatriot

    RhodyPatriot Rookie

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    Betcha BB is going to roll out film of that regular season beat down the Patriots gave the Jets a few years back only to loss to the same team at home in the playoffs a few weeks later.
    Be good to remind this team that yesterday means nothing in the playoffs.

    Like where this team is right now. Like how they responded after that ugly pajama party in Jacksonville.
    They're rested, pretty healthy and ready to go.
  27. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There is a popular NFL betting theory that says just pick the winner in the playoffs, and you will win big. Of course that includes upsets, but there is also a history of favorites covering, even the largest spreads. (Esp the home team after a bye)
    I think the logic is that when its all or nothing late in the game the trailing team makes more mistakes and the margin widens.
  28. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Foster took a pounding today with almost 40 touches.
  29. dizi24

    dizi24 Rookie

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    This is often repeated and only partially true at best. Line makers also know if they can set a line where 90% of the public bets on one side and loses, they'll make even more money. Line moves occasionally happen to encourage betting on one team, even when the public is heavily on that teams side. A good example was the 2007 Super Bowl when the line was -14, and even when 80% were on the Giants, most sports books didnt move the line (and they lost a ton of money that year).

    If its -10, Vegas seems pretty confident the Pats will cover a pretty big lead.
  30. TheBostonStraggler

    TheBostonStraggler Rookie

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    Exactly. People place a 'this is who should win by this much' faith in the Vegas spread. That is not what it is per se. It is a convergence of the expected winner as well as who people think should win/how much money is wagered on one team.

    Given the Patriots home field record, their playoff record, Houston's lack of extensive playoff experience, the Patriots undeniable ability to score (approx 40 points from the all time scoring record), the Patriots getting healthy just at the right time.......being a point or two above one score at home over a Houston team that has struggled for over a month (including today - somewhat) is not outlandish. However, that kind of spread over a Sept - Nov Houston team would be outlandish.
    Unfortunately a spread does not guarantee a win this Sunday :D
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