2012 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN Playing with it I learned something. The Patriots only need 1 loss from the Ravens. If it is against the Broncos in Week 15. Because you end up with a rock/paper/scissors logjam where the Ravens beat us the Broncos beat the Ravens and we beat the Broncos meaning each team wins the HTH tiebreaker against one of the other two and loses the HTH tiebreaker against the other. If the Patriots win out and the Broncos beat the Ravens we'll get the #2 seed. Edit: that's only for the 2nd seed if the Ravens/Broncos and Patriots are tied for a final season record. If we win out and end up tied with the Texans and Ravens @13-3 we'll win the #1 seed for the same reason. But I think the Texans will realistically end 14-2. Meaning if we end up 13-3 along with the Ravens then we actually need the Broncos to beat the Ravens and end up 13-3 as well so we can get the aforementioned bye.