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The only problem with your analysis is none of these guys were "can't miss" or "once in a generation".
All the flaws that made these guys busts were recognized by people. The Colts didn't draft Leaf because he said the first thing he would do after the draft is head to Vegas.
Russell? problems were well known...except by Uncle Al
VY?
Also, the Detroit scouts didn't want Harrington, Millen wanted Harrington.
Besides, the issue going forward and why Dungy makes a valid case is the simple fact that Manning has only LIMITED time left. So what if he has two years? You think that team can still compete, is it built long term?
In the Dungy scenario, Luck and picks afford you the POSSIBILITY of building long term success based on a QB and team.
The Manning retention is short term and academic.
Only there is no Luck and picks equation. If Manning can play he will finish his career in Indy. If he can't he's retired. There is no way in hell he agrees to go anywhere else. We know how anal he is. It takes him a year or two just to coach up his new WR's on a team that essentially knows how to play with him calling the shots at the LOS. It would take him 2-3 years to train an entire offense, and he's not going to go out playing some idiot OC's scheme just to be accommodating...
If he can play that team will look a lot better next season simply by virtue of their draft positioning. And a new HC whose primary duty will be to refocus that defense. If they get the Luck pick to parlay into multiple picks, they will be set up so that any quality QB can be brought in over the next couple of seasons to understudy and backup for a season and take over when Manning finally departs. You put Luck out their next season with that crew and little more than a high second and third to upgrade with and he will get killed.
Manning is signed for another 4 years and 3-4 seasons in the NFL isn't short term or academic when you are as dependent on team generated revenue to function as a team like the Colts is. Irsay doesn't have deep pockets. He just has the Colts.