Dungy: Draft Luck...Trade Manning if he can still play

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

My question was asking how people think Belichick would handle a hypothetical situation if Brady was the same age and had a similar injury if given the chance to draft Luck, would he look to trade Brady and develop Luck?

Seymour, Vrabel, McGinest all say, "Hello"

Mallett says, Huh?"

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Dallas is SO easy to picture. Jerry is a guy who would fork over picks and $$. But, as mentioned above, Manning's contract isn't structured to permit a trade without his agreeing to restructure...and why would he if he could just sit tight and either collect a massive option bonus or become a UFA?

Do you really think a trade to Dallas would constitute a "restructure" with less money?

We are talking Jerry Jones.

Besides, how about Washington?

Anyone think Shanahan is adverse about having an aging HOF QB not known for winning the big one?

Snyder cheap?

Also, any dead cap for Indy is immaterial because if you are rebuilding, all the salaries get dumped.

 

[fair catch fryar]

Seymour, Vrabel, McGinest all say, "Hello"

Mallett says, Huh?"

It's meant to be a yes or no response and Seymour, Vrabel, and McGinest are not even close in comparison to the value of Brady and this franchise's success. And seriously, WTH does Mallet have to do with it? He is a project at this point. No more, no less than Kevin O'Connell or even Rohan Davey were. My simple question was if in the same position as the Colts with Manning and given the opportunity to draft Luck, which could either be the next Manning or the next Leaf for all we know, would BB and Kraft consider doing it if Brady returning was uncertain.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mo

Have to disagree here.

You don't seriously think the Jets or Cowboys would not jump on a healthy Manning?

If Palmer is worth 2 1sts, Manning is......

Where I would go if I was Polian is I would gut the team. Clark, Freeney, Saturday..........and max out my picks and TOTALLY rebuild.

Too bad for them, they will not have Mathis and Wayne after this year. If they can sign and trade, all the more.

People do not give the hoodie the props for the multi year picks acquisition spree that allowed us to reload.

Indy, well, not so much.

I don't think any of those teams would jump on a healthy Manning on a one year $28M guaranteed deal. I also don't think Manning would jump on any of those teams knowing he had maybe 2-3 years left to play and it would take them at least that long to adapt to his offense...

Brady would have a similar issue...

You guys also fail to grasp the cap consequences of all these moves... Romo and The Sanchise make some serious coin and their dead cap would be painful. The JETS and Cowboys would have to gut their remaining team just to afford Manning cap hit... And once the Colts gut theirs Luck won't last the 4 years of his rookie deal before he needs neck fusion...

 

[Triumph]

Dungy is being paid to be an unbiased analyst now. The same as Rodney.

The same people crowing that Dungy threw Manning under the bus would calling him a Colts homer if he didnt throw out the possibility that Manning could be dealt.

 

[Banjo]

Peyton Manning... as a Miami Dolphin? if the Colts get the first pick, I could seriously see it happening.

Peyton Manning... as a 49er? why not?! their defense is awesome and the NFC West is pretty bad. it would be another easy division for Peyton to conquer.

Peyton Manning... as a Seahawk or a Redskin? meh. he deserves better than that.

whatever the case, I hope Peyton still has a few more years left in the tank.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Did I miss the medical story saying that Manning is guaranteed football fit next spring? Because without that information, any team trading away their #1s for this aging HOF QB should fire their business manager for irresponsibly risking several tens of millions of dollars and the franchise's future (no high picks) with such a trade.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

It's meant to be a yes or no response and Seymour, Vrabel, and McGinest are not even close in comparison to the value of Brady and this franchise's success. And seriously, WTH does Mallet have to do with it? He is a project at this point. No more, no less than Kevin O'Connell or even Rohan Davey were. My simple question was if in the same position as the Colts with Manning and given the opportunity to draft Luck, which could either be the next Manning or the next Leaf for all we know, would BB and Kraft consider doing it if Brady returning was uncertain.

Ofcourse they would. I don't think some of you appreciate the level Belichick thinks. Great performers provide solutions.

Greater performers provide options.

Anyone you thinks it's not possible a 38 year old Brady could never be shipped out because of what he's meant is naive.

Huh?

You miss the point. Players come and go.They franchise is constant.

Besides, I didn't realize Rohan Davey was drafted when Brady was 34.

When it's time, it's time- period.

Draft picks are crap shoots. Players getting too old is a certainty.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

I don't think any of those teams would jump on a healthy Manning on a one year $28M guaranteed deal. I also don't think Manning would jump on any of those teams knowing he had maybe 2-3 years left to play and it would take them at least that long to adapt to his offense...

Brady would have a similar issue...

You guys also fail to grasp the cap consequences of all these moves... Romo and The Sanchise make some serious coin and their dead cap would be painful. The JETS and Cowboys would have to gut their remaining team just to afford Manning cap hit... And once the Colts gut theirs Luck won't last the 4 years of his rookie deal before he needs neck fusion...

Mo

There are no real cap issues to grasp.

If Indy goes total rebuild,they don't care about cap and dead money because of today's rookie contracts. All that means is a fire sale, spread out of picks during a rebuild.

My caveat is they were to go that direction, it should be total.

I respect your intelligence. However, I would give the edge toTom Condon on how to come up with something creative.Why else would you have an opt out?

If the money was punative, the guarentee would be a requirement.

Daniel Snyder says, "Hello"

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mo There are no real cap issues to grasp. If Indy goes total rebuild,they don't care about cap and dead money because of today's rookie contracts. All that means is a fire sale, spread out of picks during a rebuild. My caveat is they were to go that direction, it should be total. I respect your intelligence. However, I would give the edge toTom Condon on how to come up with something creative.Why else would you have an opt out? If the money was punative, the guarentee would be a requirement. Daniel Snyder says, "Hello"

Dead cap and cap issues are real. As are cash issues and revenue streams. It's a business. The opt out was to protect the team first and the player second if he cannot play again. If he can play he will play in Indy. Because over the next 2-3 seasons he will do a lot more to buy time to overcome that mess Polian has created and keep fannies in seats than any rookie could. If he can't Indy isn't going to get anything for him. He's going to retire.

I LOL when people still try and use Snyder as an example, like his cap approach has actually proved to be anything short of stupidity. Irsay doesn't have the revenue stream to even attempt that level of stupidity. By the time they won their only ring in the era, they were so strapped by their top heavy payroll that they fielded 19 first time NFL players on their opening day roster in 2007... Coupled with a series of first round draft busts not to mention a couple of high floor/low ceiling overvalued ones regressing over time you have the 2011 Colts, who have been years in the making and would have been lucky to win that crappy division they've dominated by default once again this season with Manning 100% healthy.

They can't get a lot of rebuilding chips in a talent swap because their non Manning name talent is heading for UFA (Wayne and Mathis) (or retirement in Saturday's case) in 2012 and their over hyped younger talent has shown how valuable it is absent Manning... Moore and Mudd and a handful of other coaches who built and installed that offense around Manning aren't there to install it or another around Luck or anyone else. Manning has been the defacto OC in Indy for the last couple of seasons and the defense is essentially rudderless...not to mention there is talk of rifts between the remaining staff and FO over player decisions. Caldwell has proven to be a puppet and a pale imitation of Dungy (merely quiet lacking any strength...). They are the kind of top to bottom disaster no rookie QB is gonna fix. People forget even Manning first four seasons (as long as a rookie deal runs these days) were a hot mess that resulted in incendiary post game pressers and Dungy's hiring. And even then there were rumblings for his first four years that outside of their division they couldn't get over the hump... Before they do anything in Indy Irsay is going to have to make some decisions about the direction of the franchise starting with the FO who assembled this mess and a coaching staff with zero competence.

Not to mention Luck, if even available, may not want any part of replacing Peyton Manning in Indy... Be a lot easier to replace Chad Henne or Grossman/Beck or whoever Pete is starting or almost anyone other than the two first ballot HOF lock GOAT QB's of the decade.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Dead cap and cap issues are real. As are cash issues and revenue streams. It's a business. The opt out was to protect the team first and the player second if he cannot play again. If he can play he will play in Indy. Because over the next 2-3 seasons he will do a lot more to buy time to overcome that mess Polian has created and keep fannies in seats than any rookie could. If he can't Indy isn't going to get anything for him. He's going to retire.

I LOL when people still try and use Snyder as an example, like his cap approach has actually proved to be anything short of stupidity. Irsay doesn't have the revenue stream to even attempt that level of stupidity. By the time they won their only ring in the era, they were so strapped by their top heavy payroll that they fielded 19 first time NFL players on their opening day roster in 2007... Coupled with a series of first round draft busts not to mention a couple of high floor/low ceiling overvalued ones regressing over time you have the 2011 Colts, who have been years in the making and would have been lucky to win that crappy division they've dominated by default once again this season with Manning 100% healthy.

They can't get a lot of rebuilding chips in a talent swap because their non Manning name talent is heading for UFA (Wayne and Mathis) (or retirement in Saturday's case) in 2012 and their over hyped younger talent has shown how valuable it is absent Manning... Moore and Mudd and a handful of other coaches who built and installed that offense around Manning aren't there to install it or another around Luck or anyone else. Manning has been the defacto OC in Indy for the last couple of seasons and the defense is essentially rudderless...not to mention there is talk of rifts between the remaining staff and FO over player decisions. Caldwell has proven to be a puppet and a pale imitation of Dungy (merely quiet lacking any strength...). They are the kind of top to bottom disaster no rookie QB is gonna fix. People forget even Manning first four seasons (as long as a rookie deal runs these days) were a hot mess that resulted in incendiary post game pressers and Dungy's hiring. And even then there were rumblings for his first four years that outside of their division they couldn't get over the hump... Before they do anything in Indy Irsay is going to have to make some decisions about the direction of the franchise starting with the FO who assembled this mess and a coaching staff with zero competence.

Not to mention Luck, if even available, may not want any part of replacing Peyton Manning in Indy... Be a lot easier to replace Chad Henne or Grossman/Beck or whoever Pete is starting or almost anyone other than the two first ballot HOF lock GOAT QB's of the decade.

1. CAP issues are relavent to competing teams. If you are rebuilding, you are not competing. So what if you cut a player and that means 2-14 vs 3-13.

2. LOL Snyder? Why? It's a given that people who do dumb things continue to do dumb things because.....they tend to be dumb.

If Shanahan came in and told Snyder he needs Manning (Elway?) to compete, would anyone be shocked if something couldn't be done.

3. I personally don't care about this. However, in the OP you called Dungy out. His point is a valid opinion. You just don't agree with it. I would put serious money on the fact that Manning will not play forever.

4. If Manning went to say, Dallas, you don't think it's not possible Saturday wouldn't follow?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

1. CAP issues are relavent to competing teams. If you are rebuilding, you are not competing. So what if you cut a player and that means 2-14 vs 3-13. 2. LOL Snyder? Why? It's a given that people who do dumb things continue to do dumb things because.....they tend to be dumb. If Shanahan came in and told Snyder he needs Manning (Elway?) to compete, would anyone be shocked if something couldn't be done. 3. I personally don't care about this. However, in the OP you called Dungy out. His point is a valid opinion. You just don't agree with it. I would put serious money on the fact that Manning will not play forever. 4. If Manning went to say, Dallas, you don't think it's not possible Saturday wouldn't follow?

Manning isn't going to Dallas. Saturday was thinking of retiring last season. He came back this season at 36 but with Manning out I'm sure he's regretting it. He'll be 37 before camps open next season. He's more likely to take a gig with the NFLN or the NFLPA than he is to play another season let alone starting over on another team. Any team that traded for Manning would get a one year $28M fully guaranteed deal Manning would be in no mood to restructure. They'd have to cut 25% of their existing roster to accommodate him...and in Dallas case Romo's $10M+ dead cap... And to tell you the truth, I don't think Peyton and Eli enjoy playing each other even occasionally, let alone twice a year as division rivals, any more than Archie and Olivia enjoy watching it.

I called Dungy out because he's supposed to be an analyst and as a former HC he should know a little bit more about the business and the game than he does. But it's pretty obvious in all his blather that he is who I thought he was, a sanctimonious hypocrit and eventual Polian puppet who owes his career success largely to the talent and hard work of others...

Dungy never built a damn thing in his life, he just coached defenses and acted as a figurehead on teams built by others.

 

[TheSolderKing]

The dude has twins. Family needs to be mentioned... IDC about CAP, but what are the odds Peyton sacrifices his ability to be NOT paralyzed and comes back to football? There is a time where family kicks in and idk Peyton's age, but I knew he had twins. This spinal FUSION sounds very nasty and would you risk another big time hit over your ability to walk?


This is a NON CAP assessment

 

[TheSolderKing]

OMG the COLTS are idiots (why can't the dude just sit out 1 season and heal???????????


link (13 days ago)


Irsay: Manning's condition improving, might play this season - NFL - CBSSports.com Football

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Manning isn't going to Dallas. Saturday was thinking of retiring last season. He came back this season at 36 but with Manning out I'm sure he's regretting it. He'll be 37 before camps open next season. He's more likely to take a gig with the NFLN or the NFLPA than he is to play another season let alone starting over on another team. Any team that traded for Manning would get a one year $28M fully guaranteed deal Manning would be in no mood to restructure. They'd have to cut 25% of their existing roster to accommodate him...and in Dallas case Romo's $10M+ dead cap... And to tell you the truth, I don't think Peyton and Eli enjoy playing each other even occasionally, let alone twice a year as division rivals, any more than Archie and Olivia enjoy watching it.

I called Dungy out because he's supposed to be an analyst and as a former HC he should know a little bit more about the business and the game than he does. But it's pretty obvious in all his blather that he is who I thought he was, a sanctimonious hypocrit and eventual Polian puppet who owes his career success largely to the talent and hard work of others...

Dungy never built a damn thing in his life, he just coached defenses and acted as a figurehead on teams built by others.

Mo

You may very well be correct. I don't know and don't really care.

Again, what he's proposing IS logical. You strongly disagree, that's fine.

At some point, it's time to move on.

Golic brought up a good point a few days back.

Players care about winning games.

Fans care about championchips.

If you can show (or con) people into thinking there is light, you will not lose them. Manning went 3-13 his rookie season.

 

[AQPE]

According to Rooney the Steelers were very intrigued by Marino and were interested in getting a replacement for Bradshaw but instead drafted Gabriel Rivera instead, the thought was that the Steelers were traditionally all about their D-line so that's where they should focus. Franchise QBs will likely have more long-term impact than any other position.

Wow, this is a real blast from the past. Nice post. Rest in peace, "Senor Sack"

 

[AQPE]

There's far to many "If's" for Dungy or anyone else to be making any declarations at this point

The first thing to determine is how Manning's health and ongoing ability is - that's going to be the biggest factor

Depending on how that works out the Colts determine if they, or another team, is willing to pick up the February option

The next thing is to see how the draft shakes out, not to mention Luck's health through this season

Perhaps they decide to keep Manning as insurance, if his health and skills are good enough, while they take time to focus in the offseason as possible to see what they really have with Luck, as well

Sure they'd have missed the opportunity to trade Manning for a 2012 pick but they can always gain future picks

So there's a lot that needs to shake out first

Way off-topic here, sorry, but I get a great laugh every time I see that Saint Louis Stallions logo. Good one on you, Joe Six Pack

 

[AQPE]

OK, since I had to break into this thread with a couple of non-sequitors, I owe it to you all to make (OK, attempt to make) a cogent point on-topic.

First, regarding Dungy's comments, my gut tells me this is Dungy trying in an elliptical manner to support Jim Caldwell, the idea being that there is a path back to success quickly for the Colts. I have little doubt based on my view of Dungy that his loyalties lie much more strongly with Caldwell than with Manning.

Second, regarding Manning vs. Luck. I am impressed by what (admittedly little) I've seen watching Luck play, BUT in my most humble opinion, Manning is a top 10 QB in NFL history, and I saw enough of him last year to convince me that if he can recover adequately (a huge question, I know), he is still a very top level QB. Luck on the other hand is like every great QB prospect, frankly the hit rate on QBs the last 25 years hasn't been that fantastic. Unless Manning really can't make it back to anything close to what he was physically, I would stick with him and treat Luck as a very valuable fungible asset.

 

[Dessalines]

I don't know Mo, I think I'm going to have to disagree, though I'll acknowledge ahead of time that there is no good answer here.

If the reports are true that Luck truly IS that once in a generation NFL ready QB, then why not. Right now the Colts are on the decline. Most of their best players are on the downside, and recently they've been horrible in the draft. Time to rebuild their infrastructure..

Why not trade Manning to a team needing "just one more player" for 3 high picks. When you do the numbers what are you losing. Sure he's the 2nd best....now 3rd best QB on the planet, but even if healthy (and that's not an easy guess with a nerve injury), how many more productive years does he have 2....3. So if you are Polian, you are trading at MOST 3 good years of Manning for 15 with Luck....PLUS all the draft picks to surround him with the players he is going to need.....PLUS now you have much more cap room to add quality FAs

I'd do it in a second. The problem is WHO would be willing to give up at LEAST 2 #1s plus other picks AND take on a $20MM cap hit.....even for Peyton Manning? THAT's the reason a deal won't get done....if the Colts wind up with the worst record.

How many QB prospects come out of college with those kinds of accolades only to disappear as they can never adjust to the speed of the pro game? I think trading Manning for a rookie QB. prospect is just plain insanity if Manning can still go. If he can't that's another story but Tony Dungeon goes the other way, just to earn his analyst pay, Creating controversy where there isn't any.

See if you remember these names:

Ryan Leaf

Jamarcus Russel

Rick Mirer

Akili Smith

Vince Young

Joey Harrington

Just to name a few. All of the above came out with rave reviews and all were essentially busts. Its a crap shoot, not a science.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

How many QB prospects come out of college with those kinds of accolades only to disappear as they can never adjust to the speed of the pro game? I think trading Manning for a rookie QB. prospect is just plain insanity if Manning can still go. If he can't that's another story but Tony Dungeon goes the other way, just to earn his analyst pay, Creating controversy where there isn't any.

See if you remember these names:

Ryan Leaf

Jamarcus Russel

Rick Mirer

Akili Smith

Vince Young

Joey Harrington

Just to name a few. All of the above came out with rave reviews and all were essentially busts. Its a crap shoot, not a science.

The only problem with your analysis is none of these guys were "can't miss" or "once in a generation".

All the flaws that made these guys busts were recognized by people. The Colts didn't draft Leaf because he said the first thing he would do after the draft is head to Vegas.

Russell? problems were well known...except by Uncle Al

VY?

Also, the Detroit scouts didn't want Harrington, Millen wanted Harrington.

Besides, the issue going forward and why Dungy makes a valid case is the simple fact that Manning has only LIMITED time left. So what if he has two years? You think that team can still compete, is it built long term?

In the Dungy scenario, Luck and picks afford you the POSSIBILITY of building long term success based on a QB and team.

The Manning retention is short term and academic.