Drafting QB in 1st Round: Bad Idea?

[makewayhomer]

Ask Lions (Harrington), Bills (Losman), Ravens (Boller), among others, how "uncostly" 1st round QB busts are.

you don't get it. I didn't say they were uncostly. are you rayclay?

I said they weren't worse than other mistakes. you think the Cardinals don't view Calvin Pace as a costly mistake? he was taken 1 pick above Boller and paid about the same

 

[newton_tom_cat]

you don't get it. I didn't say they were uncostly. are you rayclay?

I said they weren't worse than other mistakes. you think the Cardinals don't view Calvin Pace as a costly mistake? he was taken 1 pick above Boller and paid about the same

QB is the most important position on the field, usually involved in every offensive play but kicks. The difference between a bust @ QB versus one @ LB (who's one of three or four others on the field) is enormous.

 

[makewayhomer]

QB is the most important position on the field. .

you just lost your argument.

b/c QB's are more important than any other position, it makes much more sense to spend your high draft picks in an attempt to get one.

even your #'s show that a higher % of 1st rounders becomes good QB's than in any other round.

if you just can't see how it is then a logical truth that waiting until late in the draft to select a QB is a bad idea, you're hopeless

 

[unoriginal]

I'll make it easy for everyone.

Following is a list of all the QBs drafted between 1987 and 2004. I chose those two years because 1987 was the draft year of the oldest QB still in the league, and 2004 is the earliest year we can really begin to evaluate a draft.

First column is NAME, second column is DRAFT PICK.

1987
Testaverde	1
Stouffer	5
Miller		13
Harbaugh	26
Carlson		64
Vlasic		88
Gannon		98
Beuerlein	110
Sweeney		180
Hudson		186
Garza		216
Majkowski	255
Paye		275
Pease		295
Walter		307
Shula		313
Ransdell	327

1988
Chandler	76
McPherson	149
Secules		151
Humphries	159
Perez		175
Bell		180
Santos		274
McManus		282
Slayden		328

1989
Aikman		1
Elkins		32
Tolliver	51
Dilweg		74
Wilhelm		83
Graham		87
Carlson		102
Francis		140
Peete		141
Johnson		296

1990
George		1
Ware		7
Hodson		59
Willis		63
O'Donnell	70
Taylor		84
Conklin		86
Mitchell	93
Kupp		135
Friesz		138
Buck		156
Benhart		311
Slack		321

1991
McGwire		16
Marinovich	24
Favre		33
Nagle		34
Zolak		84
Hollas		99
Musgrave	106
Justin		190
O'Hara		260
Moore		284

1992
Klinger		6
Maddox		25
Blundin		40
Sacca		46
Erickson	86
Weldon		102
Furrer		107
Hakel		112
Blake		166
Graham		211
Richardson	220
Pawlawski	222
Johnson		227
Rubley		228
Detmer		230

1993
Bledsoe		1
Mirer		2
Hobert		58
Brunell		118
Torretta	192
Van Pelt	216
Grbac		219
Green		222

1994
Shuler		3
Dilfer		6
Klein		111
Nussmeier	116
Miller		178
Frerotte	197
Walker		198
Matthews	199
Foley		208

1995
McNair		3
Collins		5
Collins		45
Stewart		60
Case		80
Zeier		84
Johnson		99
May		111
Barr		119
Stenstrom	134
Barker		160
Whelihan	197
Walsh		213

1996
Banks		42
Hoying		85
Lewis		100
Kanell		130
Stark		238
Wachholtz	240

1997
Druckenmiller	26
Plummer		42
Wuerffel	99
Barnes		110
Cherry		171
Clements	191
Graziani	204
Detmer		207
Richardson	234

1998
Manning		1
Leaf		2
Batch		60
Quinn		86
Griese		91
Hasselbeck	187
Moreno		232

1999
Couch		1
McNabb		2
Smith		3
Culpepper	11
McNown		12
King		50
Huard		77
Germaine	101
Brooks		131
Daft		151
Bishop		227
Greisen		239
Covington	245

2000
Pennington	18
Carmazzi	65
Redman		75
Martin		163
Bulger		168
Wynn		183
Brady		199
Husak		202
Rattay		212
Jackson		214
Hamilton	234

2001
Vick		1
Brees		32
Carter		53
Tuiasosopo	59
Weinke		106
Rosenfels	109
Palmer		125
McMahon		149
Feeley		155
Booty		172
Heupel		177

2002
Carr		1
Harrington	3
Ramsey		32
McCown		81
Garrard		108
Davey		117
Fasani		137
Kittner		158
Doman		163
Nall		164
O'Sullivan	186
Burford		216
Kelly		232
Curry		235
Pate		236

2003
Palmer		1
Leftwich	7
Boller		19
Grossman	22
Ragone		88
Simms		97
Wallace		110
St. Pierre	163
Henson		192
Bollinger	200
Kingsbury	201
Hamdan		232
Dorsey		241

2004
Manning		1
Rivers		4
Roethlisberger	11
Losman		22
Schaub		90
McCown		106
Krenzel		148
Hall		185
Harris		187
Sorgi		193
Smoker		201
Navarre		202
Pickett		217
Bramlet		218
Mauck		225
Symons		248
Van Pelt	250

 

[newton_tom_cat]

you just lost your argument.

b/c QB's are more important than any other position, it makes much more sense to spend your high draft picks in an attempt to get one.

even your #'s show that a higher % of 1st rounders becomes good QB's than in any other round.

if you just can't see how it is then a logical truth that waiting until late in the draft to select a QB is a bad idea, you're hopeless

wrong, you're not going to win with an inferior QB, there's just no way to compensate for weakness there. and odds are you're not going to find a superior QB in the 1st round. and considering the costs of a 1st round QB bust, means you had better be extremely certain in advance before taking a QB in the 1st round

 

[makewayhomer]

and odds are you're not going to find a superior QB in the 1st round.

but the odds are BETTER than in any other round. why do you keep ignoring this?

 

[newton_tom_cat]

but the odds are BETTER than in any other round. why do you keep ignoring this?

is it? here's the list of top 10 teams and round QB was drafted again:

Pats - 6
Boyz - undrafted
Colts - 1
Packers - 2
Giants - 1
Jags - 4
Steelers - 1
Seahawks - 6
Chargers - 1
Browns - 6


again, i contend that Eli would not be a starter and maybe not even a #1 if not for his last name. i also have serious questions if rivers will be a starter down the road. so unless you want to argue for eli, then it's a tie between 1st & 6th rounds @ 3 apiece. taking out rivers (which isnt as obvios as eli, i concede) makes the relative proportion # of 6th round picks even higher. barring injury, i feel much stronger about 6th rounders brady, hasselback and anderson being starters in 3 years than i do eli and rivers.

 

[Deus Irae]

is it? here's the list of top 10 teams and round QB was drafted again:

Pats - 6
Boyz - undrafted
Colts - 1
Packers - 2
Giants - 1
Jags - 4
Steelers - 1
Seahawks - 6
Chargers - 1
Browns - 6


again, i contend that Eli would not be a starter and maybe not even a #1 if not for his last name. i also have serious questions if rivers will be a starter down the road. so unless you want to argue for eli, then it's a tie between 1st & 6th rounds @ 3 apiece. taking out rivers (which isnt as obvios as eli, i concede) makes the relative proportion # of 6th round picks even higher. barring injury, i feel much stronger about 6th rounders brady, hasselback and anderson being starters in 3 years than i do eli and rivers.

Again you just make crap up. Manning and Rivers are starters. That's the end of the story. Your argument is crap.

 

[unoriginal]

Looks like I beat everyone to the punch.

I've bolded everyone who I felt was a decent NFL QB. I define that based upon each QB's ability to move some kind of offense, sometime, somewhere.

Craig Erickson, who never really moved that Tampa Bay offense the two years he started, is out. So too are Alex Van Pelt, Todd Collins, and Shane Matthews, despite them being in the league forever. Kordell Stewart is out for never really being a quarterback, and I gave it to Eli Manning over Philip Rivers. I'm not sure why.

Jim Miller, who had a season or so of moving that Chicago Bears offense, and a long backup career otherwise, is in. Other controversial inclusions, off the top of my head, were John Friesz, Rodney Peete, Tommy Maddox, Trent Dilfer, Brian Griese, Duante Culpepper, Mike Vick, and Matt Schaub. Feel free to nitpick those until I don't care anymore.

1987
[B]Testaverde	1[/B]
Stouffer	5
[B]Miller		13[/B]
[B]Harbaugh	26[/B]
Carlson		64
Vlasic		88
[B]Gannon		98[/B]
[B]Beuerlein	110[/B]
Sweeney		180
Hudson		186
Garza		216
[B]Majkowski	255[/B]
Paye		275
Pease		295
Walter		307
Shula		313
Ransdell	327

1988
[B]Chandler	76[/B]
McPherson	149
Secules		151
[B]Humphries	159[/B]
Perez		175
Bell		180
Santos		274
McManus		282
Slayden		328

1989
[B]Aikman		1[/B]
Elkins		32
Tolliver	51
Dilweg		74
Wilhelm		83
Graham		87
Carlson		102
Francis		140
[B]Peete		141[/B]
Johnson		296

1990
[B]George		1[/B]
Ware		7
Hodson		59
Willis		63
[B]O'Donnell	70[/B]
Taylor		84
Conklin		86
[B]Mitchell	93[/B]
Kupp		135
[B]Friesz		138[/B]
Buck		156
Benhart		311
Slack		321

1991
McGwire		16
Marinovich	24
[B]Favre		33[/B]
Nagle		34
Zolak		84
Hollas		99
Musgrave	106
Justin		190
O'Hara		260
Moore		284

1992
Klinger		6
[B]Maddox		25[/B]
Blundin		40
Sacca		46
Erickson	86
Weldon		102
Furrer		107
Hakel		112
[B]Blake		166[/B]
Graham		211
Richardson	220
Pawlawski	222
Johnson		227
Rubley		228
Detmer		230

1993
[B]Bledsoe		1[/B]
Mirer		2
Hobert		58
[B]Brunell		118[/B]
Torretta	192
Van Pelt	216
[B]Grbac		219[/B]
[B]Green		222[/B]

1994
Shuler		3
[B]Dilfer		6[/B]
Klein		111
Nussmeier	116
[B]Miller		178[/B]
[B]Frerotte	197[/B]
Walker		198
Matthews	199
Foley		208

1995
[B]McNair		3[/B]
[B]Collins		5[/B]
Collins		45
Stewart		60
Case		80
Zeier		84
Johnson		99
May		111
Barr		119
Stenstrom	134
Barker		160
Whelihan	197
Walsh		213

1996
Banks		42
Hoying		85
Lewis		100
Kanell		130
Stark		238
Wachholtz	240

1997
Druckenmiller	26
[B]Plummer		42[/B]
Wuerffel	99
Barnes		110
Cherry		171
Clements	191
Graziani	204
Detmer		207
Richardson	234

1998
[B]Manning		1[/B]
Leaf		2
Batch		60
Quinn		86
[B]Griese		91[/B]
[B]Hasselbeck	187[/B]
Moreno		232

1999
Couch		1
[B]McNabb		2[/B]
Smith		3
[B]Culpepper	11[/B]
McNown		12
King		50
Huard		77
Germaine	101
Brooks		131
Daft		151
Bishop		227
Greisen		239
Covington	245

2000
[B]Pennington	18[/B]
Carmazzi	65
Redman		75
Martin		163
[B]Bulger		168[/B]
Wynn		183
[B]Brady		199[/B]
Husak		202
Rattay		212
Jackson		214
Hamilton	234

2001
[B]Vick		1[/B]
[B]Brees		32[/B]
Carter		53
Tuiasosopo	59
Weinke		106
Rosenfels	109
Palmer		125
McMahon		149
Feeley		155
Booty		172
Heupel		177

2002
Carr		1
Harrington	3
Ramsey		32
McCown		81
[B]Garrard		108[/B]
Davey		117
Fasani		137
Kittner		158
Doman		163
Nall		164
O'Sullivan	186
Burford		216
Kelly		232
Curry		235
Pate		236

2003
[B]Palmer		1[/B]
Leftwich	7
Boller		19
Grossman	22
Ragone		88
Simms		97
Wallace		110
St. Pierre	163
Henson		192
Bollinger	200
Kingsbury	201
Hamdan		232
Dorsey		241

2004
[B]Manning		1[/B]
Rivers		4
[B]Roethlisberger	11[/B]
Losman		22
[B]Schaub		90[/B]
McCown		106
Krenzel		148
Hall		185
Harris		187
Sorgi		193
Smoker		201
Navarre		202
Pickett		217
Bramlet		218
Mauck		225
Symons		248
Van Pelt	250

For draft round purposes, I discarded all QBs taken after pick 275 in those funky 12-round drafts, and guesstimated where compensatory picks would normally fall. Also note I did not include random supplemental selections like Steve Walsh.

Round	Keepers	Total	% Decent
1st:	19	40	48%
2nd:	2	18	11%
3rd:	6	27	22%
4th:	3	27	11%
5th:	3	13	23%
6th:	6	35	17%
7th:	3	33	9.1%

Or, in the terms of this thread:

Round		Keepers	Total	% Decent
1st:		19	40	48%
Not-1st:	23	153	15%

Basically, you could blindly select 3 non-1st round quarterbacks in any draft and have about the same chance of hitting as you would on your 1st round quarterback. That might be cheaper than a high 1st QB, but where are you going to keep all those QBs? Many of the decent late-round QBs went on to have their success with teams other than the one that drafted them (does Rich Gannon ring a bell?).

Also keep in mind 50% is about the general bust rate for 1st round picks, so quarterbacks aren't out of the ordinary.

Glad to be of service.

 

[newton_tom_cat]

Basically, you could blindly select 3 non-1st round quarterbacks in any draft and have about the same chance of hitting as you would on your 1st round quarterback. That might be cheaper than a high 1st QB, but where are you going to keep all those QBs? Many of the decent late-round QBs went on to have their success with teams other than the one that drafted them (does Rich Gannon ring a bell?).

Also keep in mind 50% is about the general bust rate for 1st round picks, so quarterbacks aren't out of the ordinary.

Glad to be of service.

that's good work, appreciate the effort. however, i am focusing on getting a quality QB at that position, not just a guy that "makes the team." for example, i really don't think anyone would consider jeff george, tommy maddox and trent dilfer as good use of 1st round picks, even though they managed to hang around for several years.

again, refer to my analysis of top ranked team and when their QB was drafted:

Pats - 6
Boyz - undrafted
Colts - 1
Packers - 2
Giants - 1
Jags - 4
Steelers - 1
Seahawks - 6
Chargers - 1
Browns - 6

With that pattern, I don't see how one can conclude it's worth spending 1st round QB money, or 2nd and 3rd for that matter. You're just as likely to get a QB that plays for a top team in rounds 4, 5 & 6 (or no round at all like romo) then you are drafting high. And when you consider the consequences of having to commit to a bust at the most important position on the field, it's that much riskier from a franchise perspeftive to draft a QB high.

 

[unoriginal]

that's good work, appreciate the effort. however, i am focusing on getting a quality QB at that position, not just a guy that "makes the team." for example, i really don't think anyone would consider jeff george, tommy maddox and trent dilfer as good use of 1st round picks, even though they managed to hang around for several years.

Very well, this is what you get when you remove veteran non-Pro Bowl quarterbacks (Rodney Peete, Jeff George, Tommy Maddox, and Jim Miller) plus the other quarterback you mentioned (Trent Dilfer) from my listing:

Round	Keepers	Total	% Quality
1st:	16	40	40%
2nd:	2	18	11%
3rd:	6	27	22%
4th:	3	27	11%
5th:	2	13	15%
6th:	5	35	20%
7th:	3	33	9.1%

And the 1st/rest split:

Round		Keepers	Total	% Quality
1st:		16	40	40%
Not-1st:	21	153	14%

You'd still need 3 non-1st round QBs to have the same chances as a 1st round QB.

Also note that the 40% Pro Bowl rate of 1st round QBs is slightly higher than the Pro Bowl rate of 1st round players over the same period, which is 34%.

 

[newton_tom_cat]

Very well, this is what you get when you remove veteran non-Pro Bowl quarterbacks (Rodney Peete, Jeff George, Tommy Maddox, and Jim Miller) plus the other quarterback you mentioned (Trent Dilfer) from my listing:

Round	Keepers	Total	% Quality
1st:	16	40	40%
2nd:	2	18	11%
3rd:	6	27	22%
4th:	3	27	11%
5th:	2	13	15%
6th:	5	35	20%
7th:	3	33	9.1%

And the 1st/rest split:

Round		Keepers	Total	% Quality
1st:		16	40	40%
Not-1st:	21	153	14%

You'd still need 3 non-1st round QBs to have the same chances as a 1st round QB.

Also note that the 40% Pro Bowl rate of 1st round QBs is slightly higher than the Pro Bowl rate of 1st round players over the same period, which is 34%.

i give you credit fdr putting more effort into it than the others, but you're making the same mistake of not taking into account the devastating effect of a 1st round QB bust on a team's competitiveness over a multi-year period. you also have not addressed why 50% of the top 10 teams in the league picked up their QB in the 4th round or later.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Both Young and Staubach would have been first rounders.

Young went for the $$$ in the USFL, and was part of that USFL supplemental draft.

Staubach had a five year committment to the Navy, without that he would have been the #1 pick.

I think the lower round guys, have a great advantage to the #1 picks. Think about it, when the Pats drafted Brady, what was expected of him? The biggest thing he did was chart plays, he had time and no pressure to learn the system, and learn from a very good NFL QB, how to be a good QB in the NFL. Meanwhile the #1 picks have all that pressure to "save the franchise" and play right away.

 

[dryheat44]

Ask Lions (Harrington), Bills (Losman), Ravens (Boller), among others, how "uncostly" 1st round QB busts are.

From another post a couple of weeks back:

Other than Rothliesberger, do we really know if any of those guys are quality QBs?

While not all highly drafted QBs are franchise quarterbacks, other than Brady and Favre, all franchise quarterbacks were high picks. In other words, while there are many, many, big misses (Ryan Leaf, Mike Vick, David Carr, soon Vince Young and Alex Smith will be in this category), there are very, very few studs found late. I think a franchise looking for a stud QB still has to use a very high pick. Just look at the evidence:

Manning - First overall
Palmer - First overall
Elway - First overall
Aikman - First overall
McNabb - Second overall
McNair - Third overall
Roethlisberger - Eleventh overall
Kelly - Fourteenth overall
Marino - #27 overall (rampant drug use rumors)
Brees - #32 overall (Dude's about 5'9")
Favre - #33 overall (level of competition concerns)
Montana - Third rounder
Brady - Sixth rounder

Bulger & Hasselbeck are also sixth rounders. So is Derek Anderson. Co-incidental that so many good QBs are all from the sixth round, but I don't know whether they're "franchise quarterbacks".

To sum, while not all high draft picks turn out to be successful QBs, virtually all successful QBs were high draft picks. But drafting a quarterback in the first round for lack of a better thing isn't really a good idea.

 

[fester]

giving Brady & Romo as examples of late/UDFA guys is terrible logic b/c it ignores the hundreds of guys who didn't make it. finding those guys in a needle in a haystack. good luck if your strategy is "hope to find needle in haystack"

Now an interesting side policy argument might be that given the very high value of having a competent quarterback, and the non-zero probability of finding a workable QB in the 5th, 6th or 7th rounds, it makes sense for teams to consistently take a flyer on a QB in one of these rounds as the downside is low (6th and 7th rounders statistically perform no better/worse than UDFAs) and the potential upside is very high.

 

[makewayhomer]

i give you credit fdr putting more effort into it than the others, but you're making the same mistake of not taking into account the devastating effect of a 1st round QB bust on a team's competitiveness over a multi-year period.

and you are not taking into account the lost value of drafting a WR instead of a QB with a high pick. since QB's are worth more than WR's, when you make a good choice, your team is much better off b/c you have a good player at a MUCH more valuable position.

and also, you severely overstate how much worse a bad QB pick is than a bad (other position) pick. say you pick a horrible RB instead of a horrible QB. you pay them the same money, you lose the same draft pick, and they are both a wasted roster spot. maybe neither of them even end up playing very much. so why is the QB pick so much worse?

you also have not addressed why 50% of the top 10 teams in the league picked up their QB in the 4th round or later.

there is no explanation needed other than "sample size". sometimes teams get very lucky with draft picks/UDFA, and Brady & Romo are 2 examples of this. again, good luck if your strategy is "hope to get really lucky"

 

[patchick]

QB is the most important position on the field, usually involved in every offensive play but kicks. The difference between a bust @ QB versus one @ LB (who's one of three or four others on the field) is enormous.

Right...and the difference between a great success @ QB versus one @ LB is also enormous! (Brian Urlacher was drafted in 2000. If the draft were replayed today, would any team take him over Brady?)

The problem with your thesis is you're entirely focused on minimizing risk, to the point where you ignore maximizing return. The single best thing that can happen in a draft is to find a top-flight franchise QB. That's the gold ring, the near guarantee of a good football team. As others have amply demonstrated with historical stats, choosing a QB in the 1st round gives you the best odds of that gold ring. Therefore it's often worth the risk.

 

[newton_tom_cat]

And right on cue, the ranks of Top 10 lose another 1st round QB with the Giants and Eli (rightfully) dropping out.

New ESPN Rankings:
1. New England Patriots - Brady 6
2. Indianapolis Colts - Manning 1
3. Dallas Cowboys - Romo undrafted
4. Green Bay Packers - Favre 2
5. Jacksonville Jaguars - Garrard 4
6. San Diego Chargers - Rivers 1
7. Pittsburgh Steelers - Rothelsberger 1
8. Cleveland Browns - Anderson 6
9. Seattle Seahawks - Hasselback 6
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Garcia undrafted

Giants are seeing the negative effect of having to commit to their high profile 1st round QB, even though it's clear he's not the answer.And I wouldn't be surprised when Bolts come up short again (which they will) that people start asking serious questions about Rivers. Of the 9 QBs up there other than Rivers, I think they are all deserving of starting position. But leaving him in, the % draft round of top 10 teams is:

1st: 30%
2nd: 10%
3rd: 0%
4th: 10%
5th: 0%
6th: 30%
UD: 20%

I don't see how anyone thinks drafting a QB in the first round still makes sense unless you're really certain about him. And even many of those "can't miss" instances like Leaf and Testeverde, have failed to live up to expectations.

 

[makewayhomer]

And right on cue, the ranks of Top 10 lose another 1st round QB with the Giants and Eli (rightfully) dropping out.

New ESPN Rankings:
1. New England Patriots - Brady 6
2. Indianapolis Colts - Manning 1
3. Dallas Cowboys - Romo undrafted
4. Green Bay Packers - Favre 2
5. Jacksonville Jaguars - Garrard 4
6. San Diego Chargers - Rivers 1
7. Pittsburgh Steelers - Rothelsberger 1
8. Cleveland Browns - Anderson 6
9. Seattle Seahawks - Hasselback 6
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Garcia undrafted

Giants are seeing the negative effect of having to commit to their high profile 1st round QB, even though it's clear he's not the answer.And I wouldn't be surprised when Bolts come up short again (which they will) that people start asking serious questions about Rivers. Of the 9 QBs up there other than Rivers, I think they are all deserving of starting position. But leaving him in, the % draft round of top 10 teams is:

1st: 30%
2nd: 10%
3rd: 0%
4th: 10%
5th: 0%
6th: 30%
UD: 20%

I don't see how anyone thinks drafting a QB in the first round still makes sense unless you're really certain about him. And even many of those "can't miss" instances like Leaf and Testeverde, have failed to live up to expectations.

so to be clear, if you need a QB, which round are you taking him in? assume this is a normal draft, and you are only going to take 1 QB.

 

[Dagg]

Based on data in this thread I would have to take a QB with every pick in my draft and hopefully finding one that works with the %s being for the 1st rounder.