Drafting QB in 1st Round: Bad Idea?

[newton_tom_cat]

Here are top 10 QB's by rating and the round they were drafted:

Brady - 6
Garrard - 4
Romo - undrafted
Rothlesberger - 1
Favre - 2
Manning - 1
Garcia - undrafted
Brees - 2
Hasselback - 6
Cutler - 1

Percent by round drafted:

1 = 30%
2 = 20%
3 = 0%
4 = 10%
5 = 0%
6 = 20%
undrafted = 20%

Remarkably half of the top QBs were drafted after the 3rd round. And two of them weren't drafted at all! Of the top 3, Garrard was drafted the earliest at round 4. Brady was 6th, and Romo was undrafted.

The league is littered with 1st round QB busts (Leaf, Mirer, etc) and our own #1 Bledsoe was run out of town too. Not only are you unlikely to find your QB in the 1st round, but given the money spent of 1st round QBs, you hurt your ability to fill out the rest of team. Not to mention loss of using 1st round pick on a different position.

Now I feel a lot better about Cassell knowing he was a 7th rounder!!

 

[Gunnails]

Here are top 10 QB's by rating and the round they were drafted:

Brady - 6
Garrard - 4
Romo - undrafted
Rothlesberger - 1
Favre - 2
Manning - 1
Garcia - undrafted
Brees - 2
Hasselback - 6
Cutler - 1

Percent by round drafted:

1 = 30%
2 = 20%
3 = 0%
4 = 10%
5 = 0%
6 = 20%
undrafted = 20%

Remarkably half of the top QBs were drafted after the 3rd round. And two of them weren't drafted at all! Of the top 3, Garrard was drafted the earliest at round 4. Brady was 6th, and Romo was undrafted.

The league is littered with 1st round QB busts (Leaf, Mirer, etc) and our own #1 Bledsoe was run out of town too. Not only are you unlikely to find your QB in the 1st round, but given the money spent of 1st round QBs, you hurt your ability to fill out the rest of team. Not to mention loss of using 1st round pick on a different position.

Now I feel a lot better about Cassell knowing he was a 7th rounder!!

===================================

There is something very wrong about puting Leaf, Mirer, and Bledsoe in the same sentance.

 

[Rawky77]

Here are top 10 QB's by rating and the round they were drafted:

Brady - 6
Garrard - 4
Romo - undrafted
Rothlesberger - 1
Favre - 2
Manning - 1
Garcia - undrafted
Brees - 2
Hasselback - 6
Cutler - 1

Percent by round drafted:



1 = 30%
2 = 20%
3 = 0%
4 = 10%
5 = 0%
6 = 20%
undrafted = 20%

Remarkably half of the top QBs were drafted after the 3rd round. And two of them weren't drafted at all! Of the top 3, Garrard was drafted the earliest at round 4. Brady was 6th, and Romo was undrafted.

The league is littered with 1st round QB busts (Leaf, Mirer, etc) and our own #1 Bledsoe was run out of town too. Not only are you unlikely to find your QB in the 1st round, but given the money spent of 1st round QBs, you hurt your ability to fill out the rest of team. Not to mention loss of using 1st round pick on a different position.

Now I feel a lot better about Cassell knowing he was a 7th rounder!!

You forgot Vick and Vince Young i believe both of them were a first rounder and while some still have hope for Young i do not.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The Packers traded the Falcons a 1st round pick for Favre (so technically he is a 1st rounder)

Brees was the 1st pick of the second round.

Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning werel the top picks in the draft. Donovan McNabb was the second pick

Bledsoe was by no means a "bust" he turned this franchise around and took a beating doing it, to lump him in with Leaf and Meirer, is an absolute travesty.

Thier have been some bad picks, but overall the busts at QB are no more prolific than any other position.

 

[Krugman]

I have to go with Gunnails on this one,I dont think Bledsoe should be lumped in with Mirer and Leaf.

 

[Ice Cold Bruschi]

The Packers traded the Falcons a 1st round pick for Favre (so technically he is a 1st rounder)

Brees was the 1st pick of the second round.

Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning werel the top picks in the draft. Donovan McNabb was the second pick

Bledsoe was by no means a "bust" he turned this franchise around and took a beating doing it, to lump him in with Leaf and Meirer, is an absolute travesty.

Thier have been some bad picks, but overall the busts at QB are no more prolific than any other position.

Thats true but a bust a qb is more significant that drafting say a bust DE. A bust qb (depending on where in the 1st they were drafted) can drag a whole franchise down for 4 or 5 years just because theres so much invested in them ie. Couch, Harrington, Carr etc.

 

[Gunnails]

Here are top 10 QB's by rating and the round they were drafted:

Brady - 6
Garrard - 4
Romo - undrafted
Rothlesberger - 1
Favre - 2
Manning - 1
Garcia - undrafted
Brees - 2
Hasselback - 6
Cutler - 1

Percent by round drafted:

1 = 30%
2 = 20%
3 = 0%
4 = 10%
5 = 0%
6 = 20%
undrafted = 20%

Remarkably half of the top QBs were drafted after the 3rd round. And two of them weren't drafted at all! Of the top 3, Garrard was drafted the earliest at round 4. Brady was 6th, and Romo was undrafted.

The league is littered with 1st round QB busts (Leaf, Mirer, etc) and our own #1 Bledsoe was run out of town too. Not only are you unlikely to find your QB in the 1st round, but given the money spent of 1st round QBs, you hurt your ability to fill out the rest of team. Not to mention loss of using 1st round pick on a different position.

Now I feel a lot better about Cassell knowing he was a 7th rounder!!

=====================================

Where you draft for a QB depends on how much your franchise already has tied up in QB salary and contract, A team like the Cardinals would look real stupid drafting a QB high.
And a team like Oakland, had really no choice but to take a QB with there 1st.

It is a QB/Coaching league, if you need a QB and you have the chance to draft a franchise QB you do it.

 

[Deus Irae]

I am of the opinion that the salary cap era and the short leash that coaches are put on are killing first round quarterbacks. They are being thrown into games in their first season, and almost no quarterback is ready that quickly. They get put in on bad teams and take a pounding. Then many of them, like David Carr, they learn bad habits and become gun shy. Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith and others would probably have been far better served learning the ways of the NFL behind seasoned veterans for a year or more before ever getting on the field.

 

[eom]

I would tend to agree.
the heat is on a first round guy to play in his first season, or at worst, second.
all these undrafted guys and late round gems get to sit on the sidelines a few years.

how long was romo an apprentice?
how did san fran's 3rd string guy look sat night?

I'm pretty sure if you looked at other positions you could make your lists of first round busts.

 

[newton_tom_cat]

I am of the opinion that the salary cap era and the short leash that coaches are put on are killing first round quarterbacks. They are being thrown into games in their first season, and almost no quarterback is ready that quickly. They get put in on bad teams and take a pounding. Then many of them, like David Carr, they learn bad habits and become gun shy. Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith and others would probably have been far better served learning the ways of the NFL behind seasoned veterans for a year or more before ever getting on the field.

aikman played his first few years and got pounded. yet he ended up w/ 3 rings. those guys you mention just arent that good, thats their problem. teams got caught up in their college hype and bs about having to have a franchise QB so take one in the 1st round.

 

[Deus Irae]

aikman played his first few years and got pounded. yet he ended up w/ 3 rings. those guys you mention just arent that good, thats their problem. teams got caught up in their college hype and bs about having to have a franchise QB so take one in the 1st round.

Anyone who watches Carr play can see that he's skittish as a cat back behind that line. The idea that it's about talent and not mindset, experience and maturity is absurd. There's a reason that even first rounders have sat the bench for almost all of NFL history, and it's not because they weren't good. Marino is pointed to as the great exception for a reason.

 

[Arrrr]

I was scared this thread was going to be about whether the Pats should draft a QB in the first round for the 2008 draft. I am glad no one is that stupid.

 

[newton_tom_cat]

Anyone who watches Carr play can see that he's skittish as a cat back behind that line. The idea that it's about talent and not mindset, experience and maturity is absurd. There's a reason that even first rounders have sat the bench for almost all of NFL history, and it's not because they weren't good. Marino is pointed to as the great exception for a reason.

thats a bunch of BS. aikman, marino 2 all time greats started their 1st season. of current top QBs you have ben rothlesberger. guys are good or they're not. you can sit joey harrington's ass on the bench as long as you want and he'd still stink

 

[makewayhomer]

yes, using your best draft pick to fill the most important position on the team is a terrible idea.

1st round picks should be spend on punters and kickers and special teams guys.

 

[Deus Irae]

thats a bunch of BS. aikman, marino 2 all time greats started their 1st season. of current top QBs you have ben rothlesberger. guys are good or they're not. you can sit joey harrington's ass on the bench as long as you want and he'd still stink

Exceptions don't make the rule, they prove it. There's a reason that teams used to sit quarterbacks and let them learn. Oh, heck, they still try to do it. Carson Palmer, for one, says "hi", as does Steve McNair.

 

[newton_tom_cat]

Exceptions don't make the rule, they prove it. There's a reason that teams used to sit quarterbacks and let them learn. Oh, heck, they still try to do it. Carson Palmer, for one, says "hi", as does Steve McNair.

and mcnair and palmer are examples of QBs who have under-achieved because they sat? LOL. by your reasoning rothlesberger needs to give his ring back too!! LOL

 

[Deus Irae]

and mcnair and palmer are examples of QBs who have under-achieved because they sat? LOL. by your reasoning rothlesberger needs to give his ring back too!! LOL

You may want to repair this post....

 

[spacecrime]

Your analysis misses the numbers of QBs drafted each round. Lots of QBs are taken in later rounds as "fliers" that don't work out.

The percentage of QBs drafted in the first round that end up being starting QBs is much much higher than the percentage of QBs drafted in late rounds that end up being starters.

If you go back through draft records, you will see that very few late round drafted QBs ever amount to anything.

Try posting the numbers of QBs that didn't amount to anything by round and see what I mean.

 

[newton_tom_cat]

Your analysis misses the numbers of QBs drafted each round. Lots of QBs are taken in later rounds as "fliers" that don't work out.

The percentage of QBs drafted in the first round that end up being starting QBs is much much higher than the percentage of QBs drafted in late rounds that end up being starters.

If you go back through draft records, you will see that very few late round drafted QBs ever amount to anything.

Try posting the numbers of QBs that didn't amount to anything by round and see what I mean.

if you use QB that became starter as your measure of success, you are biasing the analsysis heavily in favor of 1st rounders. their teams must play them and give them at least 2 years worth of chance. given the added exposure they get versus late rounders, if their talent were that much better than late rounders, you'd barely see a QB drafted past the 2nd round. in that most starting QBs were taken past round 3, that makes the case for not taking a QB too high all the more compelling

 

[fester]

Here are top 10 QB's by rating and the round they were drafted:


Percent by round drafted:

1 = 30%
2 = 20%
3 = 0%
4 = 10%
5 = 0%
6 = 20%
undrafted = 20%

Remarkably half of the top QBs were drafted after the 3rd round. And two of them weren't drafted at all! Of the top 3, Garrard was drafted the earliest at round 4. Brady was 6th, and Romo was undrafted.

I think the more interesting question is what percentage of 1st round quarterbacks are competent starting quality quarterbacks by year 3. And then do the same analysis [competent/bust] for each additional round. Even going off of your chart, it looks like 1st round QBs have a higher probability of being competent or better starters than quarterbacks drafted in the 6th round. Once a team either finds a competent QB or builds/coaches up a competent QB, then draft status matters less. But the 1st rounders should have more physical tools as a rookie, all else equal, than low round picks who might need a couple of years in the weight room, or practicing from under center, or who knows what....