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Draft versus Trades debate

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by DW Toys, Mar 14, 2010.

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  1. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    Cousins, There has been an ongoing battle in this forum over whether we should go all Draft and avoid the Marshall's, T.O.'s and Peppers of this off-season. I think we can see how your ideas stack up and who will bring the best possible scenario.

    This Team is in need for talent. I think that although building though the Draft is great, it works only if you have talent in place to integrate those picks from the study made by the University of Illinois a few years back. 18% over a three year period as an average successful NFL Draft helps us mostly in 2013 if we can step up a get four good picks from this Draft. 2010?

    I feel a smart. aggressive F.O. can make o few needed trades to make a Team stronger. Look what the Jets did last year and the Saints went in the same direction.

    Here is a little challenge on how I feel a player like Marshall could help and why I don't understand if he is not at the least, considered by BB:

    RULES-I will make four trades and two reasonable FA pick ups that can be done by trading those "precious" (18% successful over three year), Draft picks or present roster player trades ("oh, you can't do that in the NFL") that make the 2010 Pats better than any team you can show me "building through the Draft". I will keep two of the top 53 and swap within the first 100 picks whether Trades or not. (I agree you must have some Draft picks to replenish over time).

    The "BUILD TROUGH THE DRAFT OR NOTHING" guys can pick any four players from #22 to pick #100.

    The rules say I can swap any player or picks for another player or pick.

    The goal is who will make the Patriots better in 2010 and 2011?

    DW Toys picks (no Madden picks as some like to say):

    WR Brandon Marshall for pick #22-One of the top five WR in the game today with acknowledged maturity issue. This one player changes the whole dynamic of the Team. He is only 26. Yep,he will cost us a salary spike.

    DE Adam Carriker for DT Ron Brace and our 4th round pick. The Rams need a DT. Carriker was cast incorrectly as a 4-3 DT and added twenty LBS. that made his game slower. IMO Brace was selected in case they could not get Vince done. Pryor can fill the NT back up slot. Brace and Carriker have underachieved. Carriker was a 1st rounder and Brace was one of the BB 2nd round shots. Brace might still be a very good player but we need a 5 tech DE badly right away, not another DT like the Rams do. Brace had a good NCAA resume and is still young enough to mold for the Rams. For the Pats, Carriker has more potential than Brace and is now healthy. He is only 26. His salary is reasonable. This is a very fair trade.

    OLB Chris Cocong and the Eagles #70 and #87 picks in round 3 for RB L. Maroney and the Pats second #53. The NFL Trade Value Chart says our #53 is worth 370 pts. The two Eagle third rounders are worth 395 pts. The Eagles Drafted Gocong and miscast him as a 4-3 OLB. His best position would be 3-4 rush OLB. " In 2005, Gocong set a Division 1-AA season-record with 23.5 sacks and led the nation with 31 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. He recorded a career-high 98 tackles, caused four fumbles, recovered two others and deflected four passes. He was voted a unanimous All-American and recipient of the Buchanan Award". At 263 LBS and he can run well and Gocong can set the edge in a 3-4. The Eagles are trying to find a veteran RB to share the work load with McCoy. He is only 27. Again, a very fair trade.

    TE Chris Cooley a two time Pro Bowl player who is only 27, for AD and a third rounder #87. I went back and fourth on this and here is my reasoning; Cooley is capable of 60 catches or more and with Welker down, he helps Edelman pick up the slack as a secondary target for TB. He is like Clark. Cooley can split out. He has played the FB position so he is as versatile as BB likes. We on this forum, feel AD is bad. Through the some of the rest of the league feel he is still a very good player. He doesn't fit with BB or the Pats. The Skins are going 3-4 and want to have another OLB to compliment Orakpo. Carter does not fit in a 3-4. Thomas is still playing at a decent level. In three years here he has had 14.5 sacks. Not great but not bad and he broke his arm in 2008. His contract is high but that never scares Dan. It saves them wasting a pick on an OLB in 2010 when they have so many needs. What AD brings to Shanny is a 3-4 experienced OLB. Why the third rounder? To compensate for the said contract issue.

    FA ILB Andra Davis. He is only 31 He becomes the strong ILB paired with Mayo. Guyton can move outside. He is a very stout, good tackling veteran with 90 in 13 games. BB should approve of taking a shot with this guy.

    FA WR Brian Westbrook. That's right. I said WR. He can't take the beating a RB takes but he is 5'10" and 202lbs so he can be bigger than most WR out there. He split out many times for the Eagles. Holds the Eagles all-time single-season records in receptions (90). From 2003, "Westbrook leads NFL RBs in recepts. (338), receiving yds. (3,121) and receiving TDs (23)".
    He could also spell Faulk as a third down back for a few plays per game. After the catch is where he will excel for the Pats. He would create big match up problems. He is 30.

    Now I still have picks:
    #45- I like Terrance Cody Alabama because he is really the only actual game changer on the whole Draft board and with he and Vince and Davis, you cannot run up the middle on the Pats as the Ravens torched us.
    #47 I will take Jerry Hughes TCU for an OLB if Weatherspoon is gone
    #70 I will take Toby Gerhart RB Stanford or Hardesty if Gerhart is gone.

    6th WR Freddie Barnes Bowling Green
    7th KR/WR Tridan Holliday LSU
    7th SS Myron Rolle FL.St.
    7th comp CB Nolan Carroll Maryland
    7th comp FB/LB/TE/ST Jameson Konz Kent State (4.3 speed at 6'3 at 225lbs)
    7th comp P Matt Dodge East Carolina
    7th comp OT Thomas Welch Vanderbilt

    OK now it is your turn. Show me your 1 firts rounder #22, 3 seconds #44, #45, #53 and a forth (#118?) to got with the 6th through 7ths and see who you feel will make the Patriots better than my suggestions.

    Nobody is right or wrong. This is just an idea to see who can come up with the fastest roster changes to help the Pats contend in 2010. I say trades with some choices.
    DW Toys
  2. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    I like the thought of this post. We need to sign some more FAs, but some of the trades are outlandish. No one will give us anything for Brace or Maroney as neither has contributed enough to this team to garner interest from other teams.

    I wouldn't mind putting an offer in for Marshall. He has baggage, but it's nothing we haven't seen before. He might do well playing next to Moss for a year to set him straight.

    I would love to get Cooley, and Andra Davis seems like a good fit. Westbrook doesn't have the speed you need at WR and not the size you need at TE. It's RB or bust.


    so Marshall/Davis/Cooley and
    #44 - Jerry Hughes
    #47 - Aaron Hernandez/Jimmy Graham
    #53 - Lamarr Houston

    That would make me happy :)
  3. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    Nice job. I could live with that.
    DW Toys
  4. reamer

    reamer Rookie

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    Hasn't Kraft been very vocal about changing the locker room dynamics? How does bringing in Marshall improve the leadership/attitude/character of our team? I'll let you chew on that one for a while before I make any other comments. :)
  5. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    I'm pretty sure you are overvaluing the trade value of Brace and AD. If they had that much interest in them, I would trade them in a heartbeat for...(wait for it)...more draft picks in 2010. The Eagles start Gocong more often than not and want to feature McCoy. They aren't looking for Maroney or looking to rid themselves of Gocong. The Skins FO and fans love Cooley, so they will expect serious value in a trade.

    The premise of your game is off. You use Brace to get Carriker and the other side has to keep him (you will call him a bust). You use AD to get Cooley and the other side has to keep him (you will call him an overrated troublemaker). Apples-to-apples comparison would only work if you assigned draft pick values to Brace, AD and Maroney and made them a part of the game. Something like...this is my trade using AD or you can get a 3rd round pick from Washington for AD.

    So let me know the 2010 draft picks I can get for Brace and AD (I'll keep Maroney unless he can yield a 1st or 2nd rounder) and I'll blow away your trade haul with this draft class. If this was 2007 (a horrific draft class), I'm totally on board with your approach...and so were the Pats getting Moss and Welker.

    FYI...I totally disagree that the Pats don't "have talent in place to integrate those picks". I think the Pats are ideally suited to integrate a new WR (Moss, Welker), DL (Wilfork, Warren), LB (Mayo, TBC), OL (Mankins, Vollmer), CB (Bodden, Butler). I'll grant you that there is jack at TE and that specific position will require some special attention (chemistry, coaching, etc.).
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2010
  6. jsull87

    jsull87 Rookie

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    Totally agree with this post.

    Something that also comes into play is salary cap, dropping AD takes up 4 million (or something like that) i think, then adding in marshal takes on that salary while we also have to find a way to extend brady and even mankins past 2010. Draft picks specially those in the 2nd round are a bit more of a low risk high reward scenario in terms of $ spent and leaves the FO the ability to still take care of our own.
  7. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    I am saying not enough talent. Go player to player and you will see.
    DW Toys
  8. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    I think the thought that Marshall is a locker room cancer is misleading. He never really did or said anything that bad. What he went through last year with the whole regime change, and how the whole Cutler thing went down, he just got pissed that his favorite player on the team was let go. Once it all settled down, he performed and the team went on a long winning streak. Honestly Moss and Dillon had more baggage then Marshall does and look how they turned out.
  9. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    I was thinking in the same general direction, although not to this extreme.

    Marshall - I would try hard to trade pick 44 for Marshall, if not perhaps trade back to 27 and pick up an additional draft pick in 2010 and then make the trade. No player in the draft would have the impact of Marshall, with this move alone the Pats offense goes from pretty good to elite.

    Round 2 - I agree with Toys, draft picks are highly over-rated (and no one loves the draft more than me). Still a huge need at OLB/DE and this is one of the deepest drafts ever for 3-4 OLB/DE types. I would likely keep all three second rounders and hope 1 becomes a starter, one becomes a quality backup while knowing the third will be working the night shift at Wendy's within a year or two.

    Some interesting ideas, keep up the good work.
  10. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The salary cap doesn't matter this year, but they may or may not have his 2011 signing bonus proration to deal with that year.
  11. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Sounds reasonable. But there is a part of this that doesn't jibe with your thinking. McDaniels is looking to build a Patriots-like organization in Denver. He isn't an idiot and fully appreciates the value of having a top WR in 3-wide sets. Yet he is willing to part with Marshall for far less than franchise-caliber player value.

    If McDaniels would really let him go for #22, why wouldn't the same reasons for not wanting him apply to Belichick? McDaniels knows him as well as anyone and he would rather Marshall played somewhere else...potentially even for a team that could stand between the Broncos and the playoffs. Is he really comfortable with a rotation of Royal, Gaffney, Stokely and Lloyd? Somehow I doubt it.

    Buyer beware.
  12. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    Same reason he got rid of Cutler. He is putting his stamp on the Broncos and there is no future in Marshall. He would be gone in 2011 anyway. Smart move on Josh's part. Get a #1 now instead of what, a three in a comp?
    We called BB smart for getting something for Seymour but we all have doubts about Marshall. Yep he is a pain, but the talent is EXTRAORDINARY.
    DW Toys
  13. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rookie

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    I think the post is out of touch and very mistimed. We all know the FO is not going to touch anyone due big $$ til we find out what the new collective bargaining has to say. Guys that are traded want new contracts 90% of the time(Boldin). And its nice to say "hey, we need a starting OLB and because there arent any in FA or the draft we can pluck a starter for another playoff team for a draft pick"....this isnt fantasy football either. We did have some great luck trading pick for players in the past but for financial reasons we wont be doing that this year.
  14. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    Thanks for that observation Bill. I am sure Boldin would have been terrible with the Pats.

    Please stop with the Fantasy Football stuff. This wasn't about that. The Players I would like to see were misused in their present systems but were still young, fairly cheap and talented. The only financial burden would have been Marshall and he is extraordinary. Look, this team lacks talent to play in the top echelon of the NFL right now. We have done nothing to help ourselves. Kamerion Wimbley would have made a nice addition. Andra Davis is out there. Boldin will come back to haunt us. These above were not significant financial risks. Bill is in Florida with Tony LaRussa watching Spring Training. Who is minding the store? Like Bill said, "he is not concerned about the other 31 Teams". Nor are they concerned about him and are making moves whether Bill is concerned about CAP , no CAP or what.

    I am sure if our approach is to wait and see what the new CBA is if at all, we can still look at the Galloway's at WR and the Adam Seward's at LB that are left. Meanwhile the other 31 are confident in their abilities to turn their roster over to be more competitive. While we.....wait for the Draft (Que the Valkyrie music).

    My whole point of this was that I will take FAs and trades and a few sprinkled Drafts choices and make a better Team than all of you "The Draft will save the Patriots in 2010" crowd. That is just crazy talk. In three years..yes, I agree, if we hit above average. I challenged those to put out a better balance than what I suggested.

    Gentlemen.....We have 13 holes to fill and 8 non comp Draft choices. I am not a CPA but this does not work. You build through the Draft if 1) you are completely rebuilding your roster like the Lions or 2) You have great talent and you look to rotate and upgrade on existing personnel. The key word is Talent. We are rated 14th and that is about right...mid pack. Pick up some players like we did in 2001 or 2003 and then add Draft choices.
    DW Toys
  15. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    There are nowhere near 13 "holes" in the Pats roster. By my count, there are 6 (2 TE, WR, DE, rush OLB, P). Anything more than this would be an upgrade to a roster spot currently held by someone. Which is legit, just not a "hole".

    The Pats got contributions from 3 of 4 top picks last year. They should at least be able to do the same in the deepest draft class in a generation. That is half the holes gone. With 8 picks left, lets say the Pats hit on one (which is less than they did last year). That leaves 2 holes left...one of which is likely at Punter. I'm assuming they can find someone to fill that spot.

    So even being fairly pessimistic, it is pretty easy to see the Pats filling 5 of 6 holes through the draft. Add in some FA targets to fill remaining hole, provide contingency and competition. I'm also not a CPA but I fail to see the problem.

    Added bonus...if the new CBA has a cap (likely), the cap has limited or no increase over 2009 level (likely) and the FA period is reset to 4 years (very likely), the Pats are in a solid position to take advantage of an expanded FA pool (year 4 + year 5 guys).

    Retaining core players, trading when the draft is shallow (2007), accumulating picks when the draft is deep (2010), budgeting to take advantage of current and likely future rules. You can hate the players the Pats have acquired...and I'm pretty sure you do...but it is difficult to see where the methodology isn't spot on.

    BTW, still waiting for the picks I can get for Brace and AD so I can post the draft pick comparison to your trading spree.
  16. Snake Eyes

    Snake Eyes Rookie

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    I love this idea, Westbrook might not get many offers as RB and he might be very weary about taking those beatings but playing as a WR would probably give him a good couple of productive years and it would ease our WR needs at the same time. That being the case, I'm still angry we didn't get Kevin Walter.
  17. mcsully

    mcsully Rookie

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    First off, GREAT THREAD great idea.. .. I like the idea of trading for proven talent.. and so far I've seen some good ideas..

    Let me first start off by saying B. Marshal would be very appealing in a Pats uniform. He has all the talent in the world but as many others have said, he's an attitude problem and I (along with Peter King ;) ) think giving him the big bucks won't make his problems go away..
    Additionally the hip injury would scare me off (main reason I'm not a Sapp/Clemenson OLB fan)

    I'd love to pull a Madden trade and bring Demeco Ryans here.. I get dizzy thinking of him and Mayo playing at the same time.. Of course, its not going to happen.

    To be honest, I'm not thrilled with what I see out there for available players for trade or RFA. Especially when I reviewed what these teams tendered the player with.. Players I'd consider..

    1. Tony Brown - Big Guy who can collapse the pocket but is 29 and giving up a 1st or 2nd day pick for him is not going to happen
    2. Leon Washington - if he was healthy, I'd give the Jets a 2nd rounder for him.. He's versatile and would be the heir to Faulk ... PLus our ST would be insane..
    3. Vincent Jackson - He's a notch below Marshal and comes with some baggage but not as much

    In other threads I've read where people want to trade for Cooley or the Bears tight end.. Thats all find and good BUT with the draft being so deep (what the experts have told us), ITS NECESSARY, no it should be the golden rule.. If we trade for a player, we need a draft pick back.. Seeing Boldin fetch a 3rd and 4th should tell us the market is tough and draft picks are at a premium.. So if we are going to trade for one of the players I mentioned or players like Cooley, give them our 2nd but we want a 3rd or 4th in return..
  18. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I like the idea of getting Cariker to play DE for us, if we can't get Suh, but I think BB should run this guy through a complete physical prior to the trade.
  19. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    Too bad Bill doesn't read some of this stuff. He would be angered and amused at the same time.
    You wonder what he is doing with LaRussa in MLB Spring Training when I feel this might be the most important off-season for him in years. Just sayin......
    Is he going to do an end run on Draft day and pick up some help? Is he going with what we have? Oh Brother!

    Carriker can help us. Wimbley would have been a great pick up. Gocong is a 3rd RFA and Andra Davis would start and fill our up the middle issues. I like Guyton but still feel he is an OLB. Boldin was a wiff I don't care how you spin it.

    Would you give up #22 for Ray Edwards who is perhaps the best pass rusher after Peppers and still only 25. People throw Ordick at me. I don't think so. He hasn't played an NFL down. Who then at DE? Wotten? I like him but not over Edawards.

    The 13 Holes we have are we need two WR until Welker comes back, 2 TE's (Cooley and Olsen are the same type as Pita who the Pats are inviting in. One way or the other a Draft choice is gone. A second rounder for Pita or Cooley or Olsen?), one 5 tech DE, two OLBs as I am sure that Thomas is gone. A SILB (Davis, Spikes?), a nickle CB when we move Butler to start (please not Wheatley or Wilhite), a between the tackles RB who BB will trust and who is not over 30 (no faith in Lawfirm), A OT because Light is gone AFTER 2010 and if we switch Volmer to left, we still need a RT. A rotation 5 tech DE with Warren and Wright (and hopefully Carriker) and no that is not DT only Brace (Pryor as Vince backup)....Oh yeah, and a Punter. 8 Draft picks does not work.
    DW Toys
  20. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    IMO, your 13 holes are a stretch, no team is going to have a star at every position and a three year supply of depth. The NFL is not a developmental league, every 2-3 years you get a new supply of backups, some may become starters but most are gone just as soon as them come.

    Getting back to your original proposal, trades, etc. , try this one for size.

    Ps. I am a firm believer in the Window of Opportunity (WOW) theory, get Brady his freakin rings, now dammit.


    Pick #22 - Trade back for a later first rounder and a 3rd rounder (either this year or next year)
    - use the acquired #1 to obtain Marshall

    Use Pick #53 to acquire Marcus Spears from Dallas

    Use picks #44 or #47 to take the BPA (ideally this includes a OLB/Pass Rusher type), worst case, very worst case sign Jason Taylor or resign Burgess.

    Round 4-7 - pickup a TE and a Punter and some practice squaders (or take some Punter off the street, aka Hanson)
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