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Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by Box_O_Rocks, Apr 11, 2009.

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  1. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This caught my eye the other day, a Belichick/Pioli protege' with a reported "needs based" draft philosophy.

    Scout.com: Falcons Begin Final Draft Preparations
    I've certainly had some questions concerning the BPA arguments held annually on this board. Below is an article discussing the issue.

    Draft Principles: Need or Value?
  2. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Good find on Dimitroff. I've never seen a "BPA" pattern in the Pats' approach. Maybe a better term would be "BPU" (Biggest Potential Upgrade to the current roster).
  3. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It certainly seems to be 'needs' based: Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Mankins, Maroney, Meriweather, and Mayo all argue for that conclusion. Jackson, Gostkowski, Wheatley, Crable, Andrews, and Slater reflect 'needs' too.

    Kaczur, Wilhite, O'Connell, Hobbs, Branch and Givens, Wilson and Samuel also reflect 'need' - Kaczur was insurance for Mankins as Wilhite was for Wheatley, O'Connell was a depth & 'future need,' Hobbs was meant to fill the Nickelback role, Branch & Givens and Wilson & Samuel were 'future needs' moves.

    'Value' seems to be the prime mover on the other BB draft picks: Graham, Watson, Hill had 'big body' value. The DBs are always in demand as value/depth, the same with OL like Koppen and DL like Green & LeKevin.

    Finding this comment on Dimitroff's draft philosophy just suggested we should reassess the arguments for BPA/BPV.
  4. Spiral

    Spiral PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Agree with the best roster upgrade approach. The Patriots don't just look at the draft board--they look at a matrix of draft-eligible players, free agents available before the draft, players likely to be available after the draft, and their own roster. They compare players in the draft, free agents, and potential free agents against their existing roster. Value is determined by greatest potential to beat out an existing player on the roster, with some consideration given to the salary cap. Some potential upgrades are based mainly on talent: ILB, CB, safety, punter. Other potential upgrades are more cap-related. I think BB already made one draft-related decision: Vrabel's spot could be upgraded, either performance-wise or cap-wise. Look for other roster spots that are occupied by players with relatively high 2009 cap numbers: Kazcur, Faulk, Jarvis Green. Then look for players whose potential 2010 cap numbers are high: Hobbs, Wilfork, Mankins, Seymour. With the Patriots, it's always about value.
  5. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think a team has to have a best value chart otherwise they wouldn't know whehter to trade or for how much.

    There are many ways to adjust for value. The easiest (perhaps) is simply to have two charts, one for the overall draft and an independent one for the patriot board. Another is to adjust rankings/value depending on need and fit. A third is to take players off our baord that we are definitely interest in, bacuse of postion or fit or character issues. I think that we should be using a combination.

    For example, I don't like heat's approach which ends with with a very short board at 23. He has five top 15 players in his top 1-24 group and no one else. Even exanding to 1-40 gives a total of 11 players, six of which are very likely to be in the top 15.
    ===================================================

    Gosselin has published his top 32 values in the draft. Is it unreasonable to try to get two of those players in areas of need, without reaching more than five slots? I think it is. We may need to use the next part of his list if no one is available at 34. There are likely to be players in his 33-39 range that we would be interested in, continuing one strategy that I have indicated. I havn't seen his top 100.
  6. BPF

    BPF Rookie

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    There is a big difference between best available athlete and best available football player that fits your system. The Pats alway draft for value, a value a player they project will have in their system. Doesn't every team draft for "need," what team doesn't need and want good football players.
  7. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You are simply ignoring the point of the discussion, making words mean what you want them to mean. Of course, every team needs good football players.

    A strict BPA approach would very possibly have us drafting a RB, TE or WR at 23. Many, if not most, mocks have the BPA at 23 being one of those positions, although most do not have the patirots making such a pick. Most here would be willing to go down 2-4 spots (or more) on the BPA list to draft players at positions of higher "need" like LB and DE. Some here would take RB, TE and WR off our first round board completely because of position, as well as taking others off our board because of issues of "fit" to our system.

    I think that we could quite possibly draft someone at almost any position at 23. Personally, I would rate a player higher if he fit better in our system. I would also adjust a couple of positions higher and a couple lower because of need.

    I think we can get likely get a player who meets our needs rated in the top 25 or so at 23 and another in the 25-40 range at 34.

  8. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It looks to me like you're defining your terms in a non-standard way. People routinely say "player X just isn't good value there," meaning that the player or a comparable talent should be available later in the draft. And need is understood to be a weighting based on position or role, determined by your existing roster.

    Within that there are a thousand arguments to be had -- e.g., Matthew Stafford would be a great theoretical "value" pick at 23 but not for the Pats; DE is only a "need" if you look ahead to 2010; etc. But I think we have to keep to those broad definitions or our discussions will get confusing in a hurry!
  9. cstjohn17

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    #54 Jersey

    Good article, good debate.

    This team is a lot like the 2007 team, not quite as deep but still there are very few 'open' spots of the roster. This is the type of year I would favor a BPA in round 1, conceivably this could take a good unit and turn it into a great unit. Needs could be filled in rounds 2 & 3 with some being traded for 2010 picks.

    Another item not mentioned in the article is the idea of training camp competition. In 2007 the Pats selected a bunch of offensive lineman, none of which stayed with the team but they did raise the overall competition for rosters spots. The result was an offensive line that played terrific all year, well except for the superbowl and we won't talk about that game.
  10. KDPPatsfan85

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    #51 Jersey

    No we will not talk about that game,:mad: i finally blocked that game out of my head except for that f*cking helmet catch! :enranged: :scream:
  11. Revman

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    Very well presented. I have tried to say this to people bfore but could not explain my thought process this well. I agree that the teams that are succesful, draft for value. It requires much more detail in appraising your value chart. However with the infusion of free agency to fill the needs. The Patriots are a great team, strategically built through the proper use of free agency and veteran acquisitions. When you are a winning organization-it makes the process much easier to identify VALUE players. A losing organization that does not understand the complexities of free agency takes risks based on need over and over again. They do not utilize the opportunity to clearly target free agents that can upgrade needs faster than waiting for rookies to grow into a role. The Falcons were truely exceptional at making these maneuvers faster than any club I can remember. Thomas Dimetroff-Patriots organization, learned these functions from working and developing with the Patriots. It is amazing to watch a team like Atlanta grow with a few major tweeks in the system. Watch out for the Chiefs this year. They will start changing sooner than later. The Broncos will take longer because they hired a coach but not a front office leader. Crennel-Mangini, same results. Understood the game-but did not have the front office people that understood this way of life.
  12. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    I'm not sure that the definition of "value" as provided by that article is in fact universal. In my opinion, "value" means "how does the player compare to what's currently on my roster?"

    If you define value like that, then all picks are by definition "needs based" because you are evaluating the players in the context of your roster.

    I've heard BB talk about evaluating players in that context and I believe that's what he talks about when he talks about "value".
  13. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not certain I'd agree, but assuming that's so, where does it lead us? It seems very likely that the pure BPA value will be at RB. (I'm not convinced Pettigrew is such a steal; the WR options have plenty of warts; etc.) I'm very high on Moreno, but would you really be willing to pull that trigger in the 1st?
  14. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Presuming that we pick at 23, I would expect to pick among players that we rank between 20 and 26. These are all loosely "BPA". I would not expect to "reach" for an OLB or an ILB if there were many similarly rated players still on the board, with at least a couple likely to be available at 34. As of right now, I do suspect that there would be a LB available within this range who is rated significantly higher than those then expected to be available at 34, but we'll see.

    I think one issue is where we get our BPA or BVA rankings. We obviously don't have patriot data available. I do think that the published value boards from those who have been reasonable in the past give us solid benchmarks.

    I don't expect much more information regarding value in the next two weeks. We will get lots better mocks as information is gathered. I always look forward to Gosselin's last mock (and first mock that takes into account specific team information and preferences) which comes out on the day of the draft.

  15. Revman

    Revman Rookie

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    Taking another view one could argue that the Patriots actaully were very poor in their draft prep and decision making over the past 5 years. Partly because one could argue that because they were already an elite team, fewer opportunities existed to make the roster. Eg-Ben Watson round one.
    Look back at past 5 years and the Patriots did not make good use of overall choices. This contradicts what I said earlier. I am merely taking another view. I recently debated that I felt Pioli and staff may have been off the mark the past 5 years. They became complacent with the starting roster and did not react to the fast aging of championship players. This is where Pioli-Belicheck used the free agency route to quick fix. Belicheck is a great coach and can get the most out of what he has but sometimes we have picked for need over value in recent*years. Discounting Mayo-he stepped into a situation that because of lack of depth-he was forced into starting role and it worked out great. Just a different look at recent activity.
  16. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Different how? I've certainly seen similar statements posted here. The panic over the 2006 draft class is still running at flood stage in some quarters.
  17. cstjohn17

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    #54 Jersey

    Using 2007 as the example, another thing that separates the Pats is that the majority of the time they will take the better player for the final 53 (veteran or draft pick). In 2007 Hochstein and Yates were better than any of the rookies. Some teams would stick with the cheaper rookies and hang their hat on 'potential', mean while the team depth gets diluted.

    As far as a RB, yes I would think long and hard about Moreno. The guy was a stud in high school and a star in the SEC, already on paper he has more going for him than Maroney did coming out of college. He has the ability to be a very good pro, would be signed for 5 years. Maroney could return kicks as a worst case, it could be the end of the BJGE era but so be it.

    I don't think Moreno will be there at 23, the Eagles will take him 21.

    As far as BPA, I still like the idea of BPA in round 1. All of these positions could go from good to great, great to elite or average to good with an impact player add to the rotation (TE, RB, WR, OT, OG, DE, ILB, OLB, CB, S).
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2009
  18. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 Rookie

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    Need is not separate. BB drafts for value with need factored into each selection. I see no debate.
  19. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    #12 Jersey


    What positions would you rate higher and which lower because of need? IS DL one you rate higher?
  20. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Higher
    de, olb, ilb, ss

    lower
    qb, k, wr, te, cb

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