Draft Scenarios: what if Raiders go Defense?

[patchick]

An if-then...

In the last couple of days, it seems that 75% of mocks -- here and elsewhere -- have settled on Darren McFadden for the Raiders. The ones with comments usually say something to the effect of "this isn't really a logical pick, but we all know Al Davis can't resist shiny objects." But there's another equally shiny object out there who actually makes sense for their team. Let's say they select Vernon Gholston. IMO that really transforms the board by eliminating a guy who would have been a real consideration for any one of the next 3 teams.

Try this on for size:

1. Jake Long, OT
2. Glenn Dorsey, DT
3. Sedrick Ellis, DT (A very real possibility for Atlanta, IMO -- DT would be the hardest position to address well with their wagonload of #2s )
4. Vernon Gholston, DE
5. Chris Long, DE

This leaves a very weird board for the Jets and Patriots. I don't think they want McFadden -- they've been sticklers for straight arrows, they've just taken on a ton of salary, and this draft is thick with RBs. And Ryan just isn't ready enough for a team that has a major win-now desperation about it. I think the Jets work like mad to trade down.

6. (via trade) Carolina: Matt Ryan

So: now what???

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

An if-then...

In the last couple of days, it seems that 75% of mocks -- here and elsewhere -- have settled on Darren McFadden for the Raiders. The ones with comments usually say something to the effect of "this isn't really a logical pick, but we all know Al Davis can't resist shiny objects." But there's another equally shiny object out there who actually makes sense for their team. Let's say they select Vernon Gholston. IMO that really transforms the board by eliminating a guy who would have been a real consideration for any one of the next 3 teams.

Try this on for size:

1. Jake Long, OT
2. Glenn Dorsey, DT
3. Sedrick Ellis, DT (A very real possibility for Atlanta, IMO -- DT would be the hardest position to address well with their wagonload of #2s )
4. Vernon Gholston, DE
5. Chris Long, DE

This leaves a very weird board for the Jets and Patriots. I don't think they want McFadden -- they've been sticklers for straight arrows, they've just taken on a ton of salary, and this draft is thick with RBs. And Ryan just isn't ready enough for a team that has a major win-now desperation about it. I think the Jets work like mad to trade down.

6. (via trade) Carolina: Matt Ryan

So: now what???

if this scenario happens let's hope someone wants to trade up for mcfadden.

 

[patchick]

if this scenario happens let's hope someone wants to trade up for mcfadden.

Right...but who? I don't see any likely takers until Arizona at #16.

 

[SamBamsFan]

Actually when I was sorting out my mock I went through this conundrum. You need the Raiders, or Atlanta to go offense for Ellis to wind up falling to us. My feeling is that it comes to Ellis/ Ryan for Atlanta and they decide against Ryan, they wind up trading down. Dimitroff wouldn't see the value in Ellis @ 3, vs the value that someone might give him for the pick. Of course, that just muddles the whole top end of the draft even further.

Also, Denver @ 12, Chicago @ 14 might be players if McFadden slips. JMO. I think that Shanahan wants to make this a statement draft after firing his GM, so previous trends might not apply.

 

[Seneschal2]

According to John Murphy, McFadden stated that four teams who have shown the most interest in him the last few weeks are:

Rams
Raiders
Jets
Patriots

In addition, the Bears GM Angelo stated he's the draft's best player.

 

[JoePats]

"Hello Jerry, this is Bill."

 

[Seneschal2]

Also:

Raiders consider trading down in draft

"More than ever, not in Raider fashion, we may trade back," Kiffin said Thursday. "It hasn't happened before but it is something we're seriously looking at. And that stems from the lack of picks and not having a fifth, a third or a second. It's something we're really looking at and having conversations about."
Kiffin said the Raiders have talked to a number of teams interested in the fourth pick, with some of those conversations characterized as "serious."

 

[tombonneau]

Honestly, if that scenario happens and the Pats can't trade down, I'd say there is a very high chance they draft McFadden.

 

[unoriginal]

Is Jerry Angelo considered a shrewd running back evaluator and manager now?

 

[makoute]

Is Jerry Angelo considered a shrewd running back evaluator and manager now?

Especially after the RB the Bears have drafted that couldn't make it.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I have the Raiders taking Chris Long in my mock. Unlike Gholston, nobody questions his motors or effort. A high character kid, whose father also played for the Raiders. Am I the only one to think this is a great fit?

 

[Seneschal2]

Is Jerry Angelo considered a shrewd running back evaluator and manager now?

Who are you asking?

Angelo's name was mentioned because the OP wondered which teams may want McFadden. Heck if I know, but I dropped his name because of this:

Bears | Angelo says McFadden is best player in draft - from www.KFFL.com
Tue, 22 Apr 2008 11:40:49 -0700
Brad Biggs, of the Chicago Sun-Times, reports Chicago Bears general manager Jerry Angelo said Tuesday, April 22, that he believes University of Arkansas RB Darren McFadden is the best player available in this year's NFL Draft. Angelo also said Louisiana State DL Glenn Dorsey and Boston College QB Matt Ryan are among the top players available.

http://www.kffl.com/player/16015/nfl/news

 

[tombonneau]

I have the Raiders taking Chris Long in my mock. Unlike Gholston, nobody questions his motors or effort. A high character kid, whose father also played for the Raiders. Am I the only one to think this is a great fit?

My understanding is Howie & Al's current relationship is icy at best, so not sure the connection is actually in favor of Chris Long. Plus, since when have high character guys been a target of the Raiders? They are all about the quantifiable metrics.

 

[patchick]

My understanding is Howie & Al's current relationship is icy at best, so not sure the connection is actually in favor of Chris Long.

I've actually heard some speculation that their "relationship" has descended to the feud state where Davis might want to claim the rights to Howie's son out of pure spite. (Not saying I believe that, just random scuttlebutt floating around. Isn't that what messageboards are for?)

 

[dhamz]

I think the Jets would be extremely happy to see Ryan and Mcfadden on the board there. Both players fill huge holes on their offense and each guy probably has some trade value. I think the Jets would make the pick there.

For the Pats, i think they would be trying very hard to trade whichever guy the Jets don't take.

 

[patchick]

So the question seems to be, who might be willing to trade up for McFadden -- keeping in mind his question marks on durability and "character," and even more important the tremendous depth at RB? (Stewart is said to be the #1 back on plenty of boards.) Let's take them one by one:

8. Baltimore
Might take him if he slid, but a trade? McGahee is solid, and a Rivers or McKelvin would help them a lot here.

9. Cincinnati
Must address defensive front 7 first.

10. New Orleans
For a DT yes, an RB no way.

11. Buffalo
Got their workhorse RB last year.

12. Denver
Too many other needs.

13. NY Jets (from Carolina per the scenario)
That's a laugh.

14. Chicago
They'd have to be tempted, but giving up their 2nd would leave them with no OT or QB, again. Have fun with that, skinny-legs Darren!

15. Detroit
A real possibility, especially if they think all the top OTs will be gone by 15.

16. Arizona
DING DING DING! With Jets-Bears-Lions right above them, the Cardinals have to be contemplating a trade up to secure one of the elite backs. Landing McFadden would be an absolute coup for them, and they'll offer more than the Bears.


So that's my answer, fwiw. Arizona trades #16, #47 and their 2009 3rd for #7. Whaddya think?

 

[Handel]

Especially after the RB the Bears have drafted that couldn't make it.

Indeed. Actually, if we look at the last 10 years, we can make this statement:

Chicago + 1st round RB = bust

1995 Rashaan Salaam
1998 Curtis Enis
2005 Cedric Benson

 

[Metaphors]

This leaves a very weird board for the Jets and Patriots. I don't think they want McFadden

I think the Jets would fall all over themselves to get their "McFadden" card up to the podium. They spent a boatload of money but managed to avoid anyone who can chew up large chunks of field position (kickers not included) and find the end zone with any regularity. Bubba Franks, Jesse Chapman and Tony Richardson aren't gonna cut it.

 

[BradyToMoss]

Hello Matt Millen, this is Bill ?

Wow, how about Schefter telling us that C Long and Ryan are more than likely the 2/3 and Glen Dorsey sliding down into the 4-hole, wow.........

 

[VJCPatriot]

So that's my answer, fwiw. Arizona trades #16, #47 and their 2009 3rd for #7. Whaddya think?

I have the Jets taking McFadden at #6. Then Arizona trades up with the Pats who previously moved down to #12 to secure Mendenhall.