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"Draft Redux" - Don Banks


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Wow, you guys are the Patriot suck up and Kool Aid drinkers that people make fun of. Regardless of spelling. James Laurinaitis and Rey Maualuga were All-Americans as was Clay Matthews. The Patriots have failed miserably in the draft the last 4 years, that's why they are struggling now.

2006 - Maroney and Jackson
2007 - Merriweather
2008 - Mayo and Wheatley
2009 - Chung and Brace

Not one impact player there and that include Mayo who has struggled all year.

Who did they pass up on .

2006 - Maurice Jones-Drew or DeAngelo Williams, Greg Jennings taken in the pick slot the Patriots traded
2007 - Jon Beason, taken one pick after Merriweather
2008 - Leodis McKelvin and pick forfeited or Kevin Smith
2009 - Michael Oher, James L. Rey M. Clay Matthews Jr. Vontae Davis

And whoever said Davis doesn't fit the system should not post about football. Parcells drafted him, its the same system.

Try the Cherry Kool-Aid, its the best.

Here is my 2 pennies...

Other than the miss of the obvious pass rusher that the Pats needed (Clay Matthews would have been a pretty good fit imo), BB had a pretty decent draft.

SeaBass was the best pick imo. He is a freak of nature that will be the eventual replacement of Light.

Butler shows promise.

Chung hopefully will be more productive down the road.

Don't know too much about the Brace situation.

Pryor is decent.

Tate is a project.

Edelman played good for a low round pick.

The McKenzie guy was supposed to be a really good inside linebacker that got screwed by injury. That wasn't his or BB's fault. Hopefully he will get healthy for next year.

----

Drafting for a good pass rush (while still doing their other duties) has to be BB's highest priority.
 
Methodological note:

When talking about players you drafted in your fantasy draft this year as players the Pats passed up, wouldn't it be interesting to note for counterpoint the other players the Pats passed up, or the washouts drafted before the Pats' pick?

Do it statistically in some way and it may be convincing. Mention just players passed up, without the washouts passed up, and you're just being bothersome. This isn't a kool-aid drinking point, it's a simple facts-of-life point. Simple fact of the matter is, there's a huge element of risk in any pick you make.

As for the guy who blabbered about who was an all-American that the Pats passed up, the gas stations and used car dealerships of this nation are littered with all-Americans who didn't make it in the pros.

In the effort to characterize the Pats' drafts as really horrible, we get things like "Jerod Mayo who has struggled all year," when he was the bloody defensive rookie of the year his first season out. Will he become a beast or a one-year wonder, when all is said and done? We don't know, granted, but you really can't look at a DROY and say "meh", based on season 2, any more than you can look at his DROY season and say "instant brilliantest pick of all time."

So here are some other guys who were still on the board when Mayo was picked, going through the picks between him and the next Pats pick:

Leodis McKelvin - I think I sent him flowers for a fumble recently, that was him, right? I know the name at least and he's prolly pretty good. Maybe he's now the heir to Deion Sanders, because the Pats passed on him. You tell me.

Ryan Clady - OT for the Broncs. You trading Mayo for Clady head-up? I'm not.

Jonathan Stewart - pretty good when he gets touches. If he were in NE we'd say he's made of glass and not Corey Dillon.

Chris Williams, OT, Chicago - I lost my secret decoder ring. WTF is a Chris Williams? I know I know if I really watched football I'd know he's the second coming... well I don't even believe in the first one...

Branden Albert, T, KC Chiefs - probably the reason the Chiefs are where they are today... wait, no, he's the reason they're not worse, right?

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Cards - another easily recognizable name. Question how his actual stats/performance actually pans out under the microscope. Trot them out, and make the case.

Gosder Cherilus, T, Detroit Lions - see Branden Albert. Although one could make the argument that he ruined an unprecedented second Defeated Season. The 08 Lions are popping the champale.

Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore - he's shot straight to the middle. Seriously, he shows promise. The best QB the Ravens have ever had, and that's saying nothing.

Jeff Otah, T, Pittsburgh - Again - you trading head-up for Mayo?

Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay - Pretty good but definitely no demonstrable case can be made that it was a whiff to pick Mayo instead

Sam Baker, T, Falcons - Who?

Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys - has really shone. Here we'd say he's not an every-down back and we already have Faulk at least for a year more... "wasted pick."

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh - So far, so good. Steelers fans probably don't want this pick back to do over. Same's true of Jones, to be fair. Still, a slam dunk, head-up trade for Mayo?

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans - everybody who didn't draft him wants the pick back. That's 23 disappointed teams, including the Steelers and Cowboys. Eh well.

Mike Jenkins, CB, Cowboys. The reason the Cowboys D has been absolutely lights-out against the long ball. Wait, they're not...?

Duane Brown, T, Houston Texans. Someone tell me who this guy is and why the Pats needed to pick him.

Antoine Cason, CB, Chargers. Swap for Mayo? Really?

Lawrence Jackson, DE, Seattle Seahawks. The next Tuck, and I don't mean Justin, I mean the medicated hemmorhoid pads.

Kentwan Balmer, DE, SF - The best Kentwan in this draft class. What else?

Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ - Because the Pats needed more tight ends. I kinda like Watson there lately.

Kenny Phillips, FS, Jintz - A household name. No wait, that's the screwdriver.

...and that's just the first round. Go all the way til the Pats pick again, and you have to explain to me the questionable wisdom of passing up on Phillip Merling, Limas Sweed, Tyrell Johnson, and a ton of other "who?" picks. You also get to point to Matt Forte, who was good for 1 year, or Fred Davis, who's been good for 2 games, or make overbloated cases for the likes of James Hardy and Donnie Avery. You know, guys you've seen on ESPN who don't consistently produce but are at the right place at the right time now and then to make SportsCenter.

I know there are going to be instant reactions to some of these characterizations, but with the exception of Chris Johnson, I bet you go to the threads on any fan sites about any of these picks and you have a base of detractors, including the Mendenhalls and Felix Joneses of the world.

So out of the list above (just the 1st rounders, and that's really a very minor "slippage" range,) why don't you tell me how many you'd absolutely positively swap for Jerod Mayo, for the next say 10 years, and feel that there's no case to be made that the Pats picked right? How many you think that about on that list?

PFnV
 
Not one of those INTs were in double coverage. They all were in single coverage... 1v1 Davis vs. Moss, and 1v1 with T.O. He also had an INT 1v1 with Braylon Edwards in the endzone on a 2pt conversion this year... but INTs on 2pt conversions dont gget recorded.

Now, Moss has scorched Vontae a couple of times this year... as a HoFer should do to a rookie... but he battled Moss pretty well for a rook, dont you think?

Bump bump?
 
09 draft ...review every LB drafted in first 3 rounds:

Aaron Curry, 4th pick, solid starter OLB (started 11 games, 60 tkl, 2sk,3 ff)
Brian Cushing, 15th pick, star OLB (112 tkl, 2.5 sk,3 int)
Clay Mathews, 26th pick, star OLB (8 sacks, 6 int)
James Laurinaitis, 35th pick, star MLB (104 tkls, 2 int)
Ray Maualuga, 38th pick, solid starter MLB.. started 11(?) games

--- there seems a big dropoff in talent after mid-second round ---
Clint Sintim, 45th pick, not much production
Jason Williams, 69th pick, only played in 3 games
DeAndre Levy, 76th pick, ??
Tyron McKenzie, 97th pick (PATS), injured

This is very high success ratio of 09 LBs drafted...if you are targeting LBs this draft (we should be), it will be a bad decision to wait. We should have struk earlier. We had the 21st pick and we could have got anyone of the Mathews, Laurinaitis or Mauualuga. After we traded out of 21st, we had the 34th pick and could still have picked up Laurinautis or Maualuga.

Do you feel happy with our pick? Bill's aversion to drafting LBs high is pretty apparent. He seems to prefer to take a few late-round projects (after late 3rd, or 4-7 rds) when errors are not as costly. But this draft shows you that strategy can backfire.

Methodological note:

Branden Albert, T, KC Chiefs - probably the reason the Chiefs are where they are today... wait, no, he's the reason they're not worse, right?

Gosder Cherilus, T, Detroit Lions - see Branden Albert. Although one could make the argument that he ruined an unprecedented second Defeated Season. The 08 Lions are popping the champale.

Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore - he's shot straight to the middle. Seriously, he shows promise. The best QB the Ravens have ever had, and that's saying nothing.

Sam Baker, T, Falcons - Who?

Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys - has really shone. Here we'd say he's not an every-down back and we already have Faulk at least for a year more... "wasted pick."

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh - So far, so good. Steelers fans probably don't want this pick back to do over. Same's true of Jones, to be fair. Still, a slam dunk, head-up trade for Mayo?

Mike Jenkins, CB, Cowboys. The reason the Cowboys D has been absolutely lights-out against the long ball. Wait, they're not...?

Duane Brown, T, Houston Texans. Someone tell me who this guy is and why the Pats needed to pick him.

Antoine Cason, CB, Chargers. Swap for Mayo? Really?

Lawrence Jackson, DE, Seattle Seahawks. The next Tuck, and I don't mean Justin, I mean the medicated hemmorhoid pads.

Kentwan Balmer, DE, SF - The best Kentwan in this draft class. What else?

Kenny Phillips, FS, Jintz - A household name. No wait, that's the screwdriver.


PFnV
 
Now this guy does his homework. Nice post, facts not feeties.
Way to go picking and choosing stats (or comments) solely to fit your agenda.

As mentioned dozens of pages ago, second guessing a draft is easy. If I wanted to, I'm pretty sure I could make similar cases against just about every team in the NFL because they passed on Player X and chose Player Z instead. But if you really want to make a case, you can't simply say Team A passed on Player B and Player C, therefore they stink; you need a larger sample size and reasonable comparisons to come to that conclusion.



For example:
  • Quantifying what is and is not a bust
  • Quantifying what is and is not a good selection
  • Quantifying the trading of draft picks for players
  • Comparing the results of one team to all 32 teams, rather than focusing on one or two players that were not drafted
  • Considering the fit of a player not drafted into that team's needs and schemes
  • Considering if a team is 'going for it all now', rebuilding for the future, or something else in between
Now if anybody wants to take the time to do that with an open mind, I'd really like to see the results. But if you already have a conclusion and are just looking for stats to support your theory, that's a waste of time; it's biased and useless hyperbole.
 
09 draft ...review every LB drafted in first 3 rounds:

Aaron Curry, 4th pick, solid starter OLB (started 11 games, 60 tkl, 2sk,3 ff)
Brian Cushing, 15th pick, star OLB (112 tkl, 2.5 sk,3 int)
Clay Mathews, 26th pick, star OLB (8 sacks, 6 int)
James Laurinaitis, 35th pick, star MLB (104 tkls, 2 int)
Ray Maualuga, 38th pick, solid starter MLB.. started 11(?) games

--- there seems a big dropoff in talent after mid-second round ---
Clint Sintim, 45th pick, not much production
Jason Williams, 69th pick, only played in 3 games
DeAndre Levy, 76th pick, ??
Tyron McKenzie, 97th pick (PATS), injured

This is very high success ratio of 09 LBs drafted...if you are targeting LBs this draft (we should be), it will be a bad decision to wait. We should have struk earlier. We had the 21st pick and we could have got anyone of the Mathews, Laurinaitis or Mauualuga. After we traded out of 21st, we had the 34th pick and could still have picked up Laurinautis or Maualuga.

Do you feel happy with our pick? Bill's aversion to drafting LBs high is pretty apparent. He seems to prefer to take a few late-round projects (after late 3rd, or 4-7 rds) when errors are not as costly. But this draft shows you that strategy can backfire.

You're evaluating by first year stats... and at the same time, perhaps not you, but many here are deciding Mayo "really" sucked because he had a good first year and a less good second year. The methodology seems to shift depending on the point being made, but in fairness, there are many making "allied" points, and each can claim a different angle.

And I respect your point, which is to try to demonstrate a distinct truth about linebacker-drafting, that is, that you have to do it high. A few questions come up given that we're doing this for the 09 class:

1) What do we know after 1 season's production?
2) Would their production in various other systems be mirrored in New England?
2a) As one poster has boldly questioned, is NE therefore any good at defensive scheme?
3) What do we really know about the eventual arc of the careers of the guys the Pats DID choose? We all remember how the stud of one draft class was a safety named Eugene Wilson. Oh yeah we also had some guy named Asante something but he was a "project..."
4) The eventual inevitable koolaid drinking point: Do you really know more than Bill Belichick [or other professional NFL personnel people/coaches]?
5) Is the goal to draft a linebacker, or to build a football team?

and finally, again,

6) Who are the washouts the Pats did not pick?

Your point deals with a talent drop-off in the later rounds at linebacker and it's good as far as it goes. But it does not take into account that although we are talking about how great it would have been to draft a stud linebacker in a 4-3 scheme, that may not have been the Pats' strategy. :D I think at heart there may be a lot more belief in NE in bringing pressure without necessarily piling up sacks. The game may have moved past the Pats in this regard. Their defenses have never terrorized QBs but have always (in good years) pestered them and thrown them off their games -- just enough to make them make mistakes. I suppose the tradeoff with that approach is the flexibility to add a coverage guy w/o going to nickel or to add an edge rusher at will to get to a 4/3 alignment for all intents and purposes. We liked it well enough while it was working; it is possible that the Pats' focus is to get it to work again.

Am I happy with this year's picks? Buddy I took 3 years to give up on Chad Jackson, what can I tell ya. I'm about to bust out my Andy Katzenmoyer jersey. Seriously though, we all had Maroney in the same boat as those two a few weeks ago. Sometimes things aren't what they seem after 13 games of a career.

By the way it does not rain. Pat Chung put his fist in the air once when he got really pumped up... that's the sky crying.

(He's my multiyear binkie if you can't tell.)

It's a down year, no doubt, thus far. I don't think you throw out the Pats 09 class for a while yet.

PFnV
 
The 2009 rookies are a great group. We have a dozen players, including a couple of starters and lots of contributers. We often look at a draft and think it successful when there are only two fine players as when the jets put all their hopes Revis and Harris. I suspect that we should be very happy with Vollmer and Butler. These two will be starters and top contributers for years. And the needs at OT and CB were severe.

However, the issue regarding linebackers is a clear one. The choice was a clear one. We could have had Matthews and Laurinitis instead of Chung and Brace. Matthews and Laurinitis were not locks to contribute for the patriots or anybody else. HOWEVER, if there was a year where it was right to take the chance on a linebacker, 2009 was it (as it was right to draft Mayo in 2008).

As far as could be known, Matthews and Laurinitis were well-known quanitities. We knew what we would get. And yet, there was not enough for the patriot linebacker coaches. After all we had a need to upgrade the safety postion, even though we had two reasonable starters who were signed through 2011. We needed a backup NT to play in 2010 or 2011 (if Wilfork is franchised) or not at all if Wilfork is extended. The bottom line is that Belichick apparently did not evaluate the need at linebacker as highly as we did or did not believe that these rooks were much better than what we already have. Many of us disagreed with the choice and evaluation then, disagree now and will disagree in 2019 when this draft is a dim memory.

And if our staff can't coach up rookie linebackers in the 3-4, perhaps we should hire some staff from Green Bay where two rookie are key to Green Bay's playoff hopes. Green Bay's defense has been solid. Green Bay is the chrgers of the NFC. Both have strong offenses supported by very solid defenses.

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So my bottom line is to be disappointed in Belichick's ability to fill holes at linebacker as I have been disappointed in this ONE aspect of the team since the beginning of the 2005 offseason. I am NOT disappointed with the team's performance since winning the Super Bowl. Any one who is disappointed with being in the playoffs or tied for a playoff spot every year should be forced to watch only Detroit games or Oakland games.
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And if Belichick can't bring himself to use a top draft pick for a linebacker, perhaps we could trade a first (or a future first) for an all-pro OLB and sign him to a long-term contract.

.0It's a down year, no doubt, thus far. I don't think you throw out the Pats 09 class for a while yet.

PFnV
 
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However, the issue regarding linebackers is a clear one. The choice was a clear one. We could have had Matthews and Laurinitis instead of Chung and Brace. Matthews and Laurinitis were not locks to contribute for the patriots or anybody else. HOWEVER, if there was a year where it was right to take the chance on a linebacker, 2009 was it (as it was right to draft Mayo in 2008).

Correct me if I'm wrong on this, because I haven't started delving into the draft stuff yet, but isn't this supposed to be a better year for linebackers?
 
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