If Edeleman and Tate
each can catch 40-60 passes this year, then we are set at #3/#4 WR. Tate is especially important for developing a post threat. We need a bigger body receiver down field, other than Moss who is mostly on lower % routes. The odds of Tate becoming that threat can not be more than 30%-40% (at this moment). We could use Watson/Baker as that higher % down field threat (maybe TE post or seam routes). Coaching and scheme will need to adjust for more TE involvement. But the problem with this is conditioning of Watson/Baker; can they be sent on routes regularly and be relied on to create separation, ala Dallas Clark/Jason Witten. The answer to that is mostly likely no. A younger David Thomas would have been perfect here but the coaches did not like his blocking. (Which traces back to issues on OL; Colts OL is clearly better).
A prudent solution is to draft or trade for a legit #2/strong #3 receiver. Bryant, Breaston, or even Branch (of 2005 vintage) would work beautifully; AND ADDITIONALLY trade for a younger and more atheletic TE. With our TE draft history, forget about drafting a TE, just trade for a TE.
If both the new WR and new TE work out as hoped (30% odds), we shall have a top flight passing offense again. If one works out and another does not (50% odds), we can still pin hopes on a small miracle that Edeleman and Tate (40%) will both emerge ala Garcon and Collie with Colts. If none of these work out as hoped (30% odds), we will need a miracle from coaching staff to make this offense work and keep Brady healthy.
So if BB makes a move for both a legit WR and legit TE (a street FA David Patten does not count in this category):
I compute our odds of a potent passing offense at 50% (very arbitrary, my best guestimation)
30% top flight (both TE and WR external moves work out)
20% = 50% (1 external move works out and 1 does not)*40% (but Edelman and Tate step up more than expected)
----------
50% odds we have a very good offense, assuming watson and Baker will not contribute significantly to pass catching.
And Jabar Gaffney, and a 7th round rookie
quarterback-turned-wideout in Julian Edelman. Bethel Johnson is out of the league and he was decent - for a time - while he was here. The guys that really failed here, Gabriel, Chad Jackson, etc., they're all out of the league. Galloway never caught a pass for the Steelers and probably won't be in the league this year.
I'm not sure what my point is though.
I suppose my point would be that every time Brady has had a wide receiving group that went 4 or 5 deep, they made it to the Super Bowl (2003, 2004, 2007). He certainly made it there without a deep group in 2001, but he's never failed with a group that deep. We'd lost Patten in 2005 & Troy was on the downside. 2006, well that speaks for itself. We regrouped in 2007, and set records and were one crazy play from 19-0.
This is why wide receiver is my top priority this offseason.