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Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatriotsReign, May 26, 2009.

  1. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I have my degree in economics and that's what I do for a living. Take that for what it's worth. If you had the patience and the time to review some of the threads I posted from early in 2008, you'd see several forecasts that I made that have come true. And they were NOT in line with the "consensus" tanked.

    Seriously, if you base your investments upon what the consensus is/was saying, then you've lost a boatload of money.

    If you're going to put even a small amount in the market, I'd go with the emerging Asian markets, but I'll admit, I'm not even taking my own advice.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2009
  2. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    you kidding me? asian markets are old news...........I bailed on FXI a year and a half ago...in fact, that's still cash.....I do business in china......its pretty average now

    yup.....you're a regular warren buffet....that's why you're here
     
  3. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey


    My God! He followed it up with "you're just as clueless as he is".

    What is wrong with that guy? You put forth accurate numbers. The Dow was in the 1000's in the 70's and in the mid 2000's in the 80's. That's merely a fact, there's no opinion involved.

    It's as if that guy wants to argue against the fact that Carl Yastrzemski wore number 8 for the Red Sox.
     
  4. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    He did NOT! :eek:
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2009
  5. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    You're wasting your time with him. He's here arguing that the NASDAQ, not the Dow, was in the 1000's in the 1970's and the 2000's in the 1980's and that everyone else is confused.

    Honestly, all he wants to do is fight with people, the facts don't mean anything. I can only imagine what a family dinner must be like at the "Tanked" household.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2009
  6. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    Okayyyyy.....never mind then! :D
     
  7. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    This is what I was referring above in bold....

    MANHATTAN AWASH IN OFFICE SPACE

    "In Midtown Manhattan, for example, 13 percent of prime, modern, well-located offices — which brokers often refer to as Class A space — was available in April, up from 6.5 percent a year earlier, according to Colliers ABR, a commercial real estate services company. And sublets now account for some 40 percent of the space available in Midtown, compared with 30 percent of the much smaller total that was available a year ago, the company said."

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Manhattan Awash in Office Space; Residential Gridlock in California
     
  8. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    Asian markets for the future or long-term investment. that's what I'm telling you.
     
  9. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey


    Sri Lanka is looking good right now ... real good and huge.
    Tamil tigers gone and freedom people disappearing by the boatload ... an investors dream.

    South Korea however ... not so good I'd run from that one.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2009
  10. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    In reference to your seeing signs of growth & recovery...

    Nonexistent "pre-recovery" in Manufacturing Suggests US Treasuries a Buy

    "Inquiring minds are asking for a closer look at the idea of a "pre-recovery". The place to start is the Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report.

    Industrial production decreased 0.5 percent in April after having fallen 1.7 percent in March. Production in manufacturing declined 0.3 percent in April and was 16.0 percent below its recent peak in December 2007.

    The decreases in manufacturing in April remained broadly based across industries. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines fell 3.2 percent, as oil and gas field drilling and support activities continued to drop. The output of utilities moved up 0.4 percent. At 97.1 percent of its 2002 average, industrial output in April was 12.5 percent below its year-earlier level. The capacity utilization rate for total industry fell further in April, to 69.1 percent, a low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967."

    That does not "sound" much like a "pre-recovery" so let's explore further with pictures.


    Check out the article for yourself...

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Nonexistent "pre-recovery" in Manufacturing Suggests US Treasuries a Buy
     
  11. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Some very recent survey of biz economists guess (in aggregate) modest GDP gains by 4Q09, with a significant number of them saying 2010. Unemployment's "forecast" to hit 9.8%, from its current very high 8.9%. Yes, it is a mess.

    Now that said: it is what it is, no forecasts are yet known to be accurate, and scenarios on the "tail" ends will be remembered when they are accurate and forgotten when they are inaccurate.

    So some guy said in 2003 that Arizona would go to the Super Bowl and stuck with it. Eventually, yes, he was right.

    The bulk of those working in the biz say otherwise, but hey, go back to the Arizona guy and see what he says now. If he says the Lions go this year, well, he was the guy that predicted the Cardinals.

    PFnV
     
  12. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    define 'long-term'.......because like I said before, I believe the ROI in the US markets will be strong over the next 20 years
     
  13. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    so give me a 'get rich quick' in the DOW........c'mon, out with it
     
  14. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The administrations projections are based on 4% growth in Q4...not 'modest growth'.....
     
  15. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey


    Nice call yesterday! :D

    MarketWatch.com Quote

    That being said, one day is only one day. However, China's market returns will probably crush US market retruns over the next 5-10 years.

    The infrastructure-restructuring that Obama is putting in place now is intended to give us a fighting chance for the following 10+ years and beyond out to regain market competitiveness.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2009
  16. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    That's your problem (and, unfortunately, Conservatives' problem). You're looking for "get rich quick" or "keeping as much taxes in your pocket NOW".

    There's no vision for planting something for the future.

    Unfortunately, American business models have been reduced to merely outperforming for the next quarterly shareholder report - - not building for future growth. CEO's stay only a couple of years and parachute out with their bonuses, etc only being judged for a short timeframe. If we keep doing what you espouse, the rest of the world will continue to gain long-term market share at the expense of the US. Thank God we have a President now who does NOT suffer from Attention Deficit Disorder and doesn't cow-tow to the "I want my luxury yacht NOW!" crowd.

    The future of the world belongs to the economies that plan for it.......not the economies that focus solely on beating the quarterly estimates.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2009
  17. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    your missing the point.......godef claimed the DOW went to where it did on 'get rich quick' schemes........and my response was that there is no such thing as a get rich quick scheme buried in 30 of the largest caps .... just look at the components.....

    I vary between 10 and 20 percent of my portfolio for speculation......I've also gone a bit heavier with biotech with a focus on stem cell and Im in the for the long...........and then I'm heavy on GE purely on fundamentals and the fact that at 13 per share, it is yielding 9% on its dividends........

    hardly get rich quick
     
  18. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey


    That is not how it happened:

    Originally Posted by godef
    I don't believe it will be getting back to the all-time high anytime soon, because if anything was ever overinflated, that all-time high was it. Consider the Dow Jones hit 1000 for the first time in the early 70s and 2000 in the mid 80s, it seems proposterous that it ever reached such heights (700%) a mere 20 years later. Just check this chart and see how absurd its recent growth was; this was all primarily fueled by speculation and cheap get-rich-quick gimmicks. I would think 10,000 to be a good goal once the economy recovers.

    Posted in Response by Tanked: "you're confused.........maybe you were thinking of nasdaq"
    ________________-

    That aside, thank you for finally making a post putting forth an argument on the subject without resorting to waste of time namecalling.
     
  19. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    WTF are you talking about????? it sure is how it happened........he is talking DOW and get rich quick schemes that drove it........it makes no sense.......especially since 700% over 20 years is not outside the norm......given assets double roughly every 7 years at 10%...in 21 years, you'll have your 800% gain.........which is a model that has been followed since the beginning of time.....the bottom line is that his post is nonsense......like lipstick on a pig
     
  20. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey


    I was commenting on his use of index numbers for the Dow in the 70's and 80's.

    Your subsequent response was "you're confused.........maybe you were thinking of nasdaq".

    His numbers were absolutely correct.

    Evidently you must have been commenting on his opinon, not on his numbers.
     

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