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Don't be fooled by the stock market advances!

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatriotsReign, May 26, 2009.

  1. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    The Dow was absolutely over-inflated from 2002 through 2007...are you kidding? It was all generated by the illusion of personal wealth created by the home value explosion and the OVER-consumption of goods and services made with credit. This drove stocks FAR beyond their real value.

    We are now seeing where "the market" should have been all along.
  2. STFarmy

    STFarmy Rookie

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    I don't disagree, just curious as to some specifics... do you think this is where the market should have been now (~8000) or is it a little lower/higher? This is a nit-picky question, yes, but I was just curious. In other words, has this recession set us back at all or was it just a correction?

    I'm not much of an economics guy, so I apologize if these are idiotic questions.
  3. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    you can draw a pretty straight line through the DJI log chart (percentages) since the beginning of time, and the rolling average has been pretty consistent...........

    you failure to quantify things suggests this is an opinion of yours, and that's fine....I believe there are many many companies out there that are FAR undervalued right now based on fundamentals
  4. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Actually, Godef was spot on with his numbers about the Dow.

    It was in the 1000's in the '70's and definitely was a little over 2500 in October 1987 when it tumbled well over 500 points in one day down to the 1900's.

    NASDAQ was nowhere near those numbers in those days.
    Last edited: May 27, 2009
  5. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    And these fundamentals would be....?? Stock values must be based upon earnings (both current and future expected). Earnings are based upon consumer spending...also both current and expected future consumption.

    Since over 70% of the U.S. GDP is driven by consumer spending, most U.S. corporations are dependent upon consumer spending. I see NO REASON to expect consumer spending to increase in the foreseeable future.

    This is not a typical recession. It will be long lasting (another 2-4 years) and have a permanent effect upon U.S. lifestyles. It is not only a domestic economic correction, it is a global correction. Specifically, it is going to put us in a far less economically dominant role...permanently.
  6. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    In my opinion, this recession is a correction that will permanently set the U.S. back as THE dominant economic power. It is also my opinion that we'll see another dip in our market indexes between now and the end of 2009.

    I don't think anyone can predict what our mid to long-term economic future will bring. It all depends upon how well we adjust and change from a consumer dependent economy to a production economy.

    To Obama's credit, that is what he is trying to inspire.
  7. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    WOW!!! Those charts are unbelieveable, aren't they? Anyone who looks at them and thinks that the recent growth is a natural progression is kidding themselves. I'd like to see anyone draw a straight line through that historical line and come away with "natural progression".
    Last edited: May 27, 2009
  8. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Ya mean corporations might not get tax deductions for luxury sky boxes at stadiums?????????

    How will our economy ever survive that???????
  9. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    I'd say the "cushy executive privelages" are a thing of the past. Thank God for that. I used to get a company car back in the 80's that was never taxed. That all changed in the 90's though. Strangely, my salary was below average at the time. I think the laws on un-taxed benefits of corporate America affected the average Joe more than executives.

    Hopefully, all that will change now.
  10. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey


    I wouldn't declare victory on that yet. I'll believe it when I see it.
  11. STFarmy

    STFarmy Rookie

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    Alright, thanks. So then if the U.S. is no longer the more dominant power then who is? China, India? And are they the more dominant powers because they produce more or provide more jobs (albeit low-paying ones)? And are we seeing a shift in the way the world economy works?

    Sorry to pepper you with questions, I just like to get your input.
    Last edited: May 27, 2009
  12. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    you're just as clueless as he is
  13. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    I already told you the fundamentals earlier........

    again, without quantification, you are just expressing an opinion..........here are some more opinions.......guess you know more, right?

    Survey: Most economists see recession end in '09 - Yahoo! Finance

    you are right about a typical recession.........it will be the longest one since WWII

    as for prediction for the country how will the US fail where the rest of the world succeeds post recession?????
  14. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    OK, we'll still be THE dominant economic power but not close to having the influence we have enjoyed the past 75 years. Also, we're so much more reliant upon countries like China who have funded our national debt.

    It's a trend that has been ongoing for 10-15 years now.
  15. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    The so called "experts" also said we weren't headed toward a major recession as late as last summer! :rolleyes:

    I'm not saying the recession will deepen much further. What I am saying is that there are very few signs of recovery & growth. And there are many experts who agree with that as well.

    There were also experts who said we'd end the year at 9% unemployment. I see at least 10% by year end (think about the auto co.'s and dealers closing).
    Last edited: May 27, 2009
  16. Mabeyitstrue

    Mabeyitstrue Banned

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    I'm gonna love this board 3yrs from now, things will be going good and ppl will prob still be saying "The sky is falling" but thats just ppl........

    Have to walk through hell to get to heaven=)
  17. NEPatriot

    NEPatriot Banned

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    YOU ARE already IN HELL.
  18. tanked_as_usual

    tanked_as_usual Banned

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    I see signs of recovery and growth..........certain lines at semicon fab facilities are nearing 100% (some were as low as 25% late last year.....)

    are you an 'expert'?:rolleyes:

    I would take consensus over yours

    I'll stick to my own beliefs..........I've been right enough where I comfortably believe I'll be right again........
  19. godef

    godef Rookie

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    Yhanks shmess. That was just tanked getting tanked. Talk about confused. :cool:
  20. godef

    godef Rookie

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    You gotta go by the percentages, man, then it would all make sense. ;)

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