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Don Banks on an uncapped 2010

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  1. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Nice article from Don Banks at CNNSI:

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/03/23/nfl.meetings/index.html

    Banks suggests that an uncapped 2010 is viewed by many teams as a virtual certainty, with a lockout in 2011 as a real possibility, and mentions that many teams have been making moves this year assuming an uncapped 2010.

    Most interestingly, he quotes Robert Kraft: "It's not scary at all to us,'' Patriots owner Robert Kraft said of the possibility of playing without a salary cap next year. "There are a lot of pluses to it. It's definitely not a doomsday scenario, and it might have to happen to get things right. I hope it's the vehicle to get us a deal. I hope it's the ultimate hammer.''
  2. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    An uncapped year helps the Pats the most. We have lots of money and there are lots of vets who want a ring, who we could fit if there wasn't a salary cap.
  3. Rob0729

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    Well, it actually helps Daniel Snyder the most because he has the most money of any owner and the largest revenue stream, but Kraft isn't that far behind. Snyder is looking forward to overpay for every free agent available next year.

    One popular misconception is that Kraft is afraid to spend his money. If you look at the deals he made prior to Belichick, Kraft was fast and loose with his money. In fact, he made Belichick overpay for Bledsoe and Milloy. It took like seven years for a CB to get a bigger deal than Ty Law got in the late 90s. Even when salaries grew exponentially, no CB got the deal Law did until I think Champ Bailey did his current deal.
  4. eom

    eom Rookie

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    well, hopefully pats will be in the top 4, so their spending will be restricted somewhat.

    I'm not really sure what kind of hog wild spending you'll see considering a possible work stoppage the next year, or a tighter cap in a new cba.
    anyway, the pats would probably prioritize re-signing their own guys over bringing in big names off the street ---- I wonder who would be the bigger names out there.
  5. PromisedLand

    PromisedLand Virtual Internet Person

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    All those guys who were gonna be free agents next year? How many of em will be now?

    Seymour, Wilfork Bruschi (if he doesn't retire) and Neal will be because they will have 6 years in.

    Hobbs, Mankins Kascur and Watson will not because they will only have 5 years.

    Gostkowski, LeKevin Smith and David Thomas will not because they will only have 4 years.

    I am not sure I understand the status of guys like Alexander who were already ERFA, or guys like Hochstein who are not still under their rookie contracts (although in Hoch's case I am sure he will have >= six seasons).
  6. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That was before Belioli taught him about the system and teambuilding. Made tremendous sense to Kraft the businessman as well as Mrs. Kraft whose father was quite the philanthropist. They aren't inclined to throw money at flashy talent. They'd rather give it away to people and programs that deserve it. They aren't going to mortgage the future to pay for a shot. They have 3 Lombardi's in the trophy case already so they don't even have to toy with bad ideas. They also have a couple of hundred million in stadium debt still to be paid off. And substantial real estate in development. Tied to a league heading for a work stoppage in 2011.

    PS Neither Bledsoe, Law or Milloy saw the phony backloaded end of those deals here...
  7. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    Unfortunately for him, it requires 6 years not 5 to be an UFA in an uncapped year...
  8. Rob0729

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    Daniel Snyder has the money to give a player a seven year/$100 million contract and have $90 million of it be paid out in salary in 2009 if he chooses. That means even if there is a tighter salary cap in a new CBA, the player he has under contract will have a low cap number the final six years.

    Even for teams with more realistic budgets, you seem to forget teams pay out a large chunk of money of a player's contract in the first year but most of it is in a signing bonus that is amortized over the life of the contract. In an uncapped year, there will be no signing bonuses because there is no cap to worry about. Everything that would have been a signing bonus in any other year will be either straight salary or a roster bonus to avoid problems with a new CBA that has a more restricted cap. If there is no cap next year and a new cap implemented in 2011, every deal made in 2010 (unless you have a stupid GM) will be far more cap friendly than the same deal in any other year.

    As for a work stoppage, if the league loses a year, the contracts just get pushed back a year. So if there is no football in 2011 and it picks up again in 2012, all the contracts for 2011 will be in 2012. Besides, with no dead bonus money for any contracts signed in 2010, it will be easy for teams to cut loose players signed in 2009 in the 2012 season if there is no football in 2011 and they become too old for their contract.

    Daniel Snyder desperately wants a Super Bowl championship for his team. I don't think he would be totally opposed to spending an extra $50-100 million to get it done especially when he sees that overpaying players in an uncapped year will have no negative effect if the cap is reinstated. The only thing stopping Snyder from spending the money now is the cap.

    As for Kraft, he may look at it as an opportunity to get some top quality free agents in 2009 which may actually improve the Pats' cap situation if they implement a cap in 2010.
  9. ctpatsfan77

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    It's really quite simple: Assuming you reach free agency via contract expiration, if you're a free agent with fewer than three accrued seasons, you're an ERFA. If you have three or more accrued seasons, but not enough to be a UFA, you're an RFA.
  10. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    That's funny. All this time I thought the NFL owners had unanimously voted to let the current CBA expire because they felt they were paying out TOO MUCH money.

    But apparently what they really want is to be able to spend MORE on players!

    :rolleyes:
  11. Rob0729

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    First, Law got something like a $13 million signing bonus and received $37.5 million of his $50 million contract. He did receive something like $12 million in base pay in 2004 and if he wasn't coming off a broken foot in 2005, he might have gotten the final $12.5 million of the contract. Law say a lot of what people thought was phoney bonus money.

    Second, Bledsoe might have seen every penny of his contract if it wasn't for Brady. Bledsoe got his deal under Belichick and Pioli (in fact, so did Milloy, well not Pioli for that one).

    Third, Belichick and Pioli revised their way of doing things over the life of their run here. They threw money at guys like Adalius Thomas and Rosevelt Colvin. Those players might have been able to get more money elsewhere, but Belichick and Pioli did pay top dollar to acquire them. Pioli has been quoted in the past that there were many top dollar free agents that they would have loved to add to the team, but the cap wouldn't allow it. Don't be shocked that without a cap and if Kraft writes him a blank check that Belichick decides to pay for one of more top dollar free agents.

    It seems the only thing that would stop Belichick from acquiring Peppers is the cap ramifications, not that he is flashy talent and he doesn't throw money at flashy talent (Colvin and AD disprove that theory anyway). Belichick don't mind to acquire flashy talent as long as they fit his system and it doesn't destroy his cap.
  12. eom

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    I don't know about that --- robo's primarily talking about one guy.

    you might have some tampa bays out there that take advantage of 2010 by spending less.
  13. Rob0729

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    Yeah, I think the Snyders, Jones, and Krafts of the NFL might spend quite a bit more or not, but I also think there will be several teams that take advantage of no salary floor. Mike Brown of the Bengals seems to be perfectly happy to win the title of most frugal owner even at the expense of a chance to win the Super Bowl.

    There will be some owners who spend like crazy and others who won't spend at all.
  14. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    I recognize that - but there are some who believe this is going to be the wild west with Kraft and other richer teams spending like there's no tomorrow to buy a title

    I know there are plenty of teams that will continue to spend, and spend unwisely. They will certainly be happy that there's no longer a cap consequence to those bad decisions.

    That's where I think the capless year - and any future capless years - will have its biggest impact. And that's not something I like because the Patriots tend NOT to spend foolishly - and I LIKE the fact that teams have an adverse consequence... which in turn benefits the Patriots.

    While the good news is that the Patriots don't need to jump through cap hoops to sign players or retain their own (with two franchise tags) overall I think the bad outweighs the good for the Patriots overall.

    In general I'd prefer to keep the system that gave us three Super Bowl championships rather than move to a system that's given us none.
  15. Rob0729

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    I agree that the Pats don't spend foolishly, but they drop out of the market for players they want because of the cap ramifications of signing those players. Both Belichick and Pioli have admitted that to some point. They probably would have kept Samuel if there was no cap consideration last year. They probably would have resigned Branch too. Belichick probably would have no problem pulling the trigger to trade for Peppers if there was no cap.

    There is a difference between just throwing big money at every name out there whether they are past their prime, don't fit your system, or are just guys looking for a buck, and once paid, have no desire to work hard and being unrestricted by a salary cap and now have no restraints to go after the top free agents that do fit your system, will work hard, and still can make an impact. The Pats won't just pay big bucks to acquire every big name out there that they can. But if there is a marquee free agent that they are extremely high on that in a cap year would just be too expensive to fit under the cap without sacrificing elsewhere, don't be shocked if the Pats go hard after that player and overpay for him in an uncapped year.

    I think in an uncapped year assuming they aren't too hamstrung by the top 8 rule, the Pats will be a major player in free agency and could uncharacteristically over pay for a player or two or three. It won't mean they will change their philosophy and just sign all the big name free agents they can. But they will go after marquee guys they are high on.
  16. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    Who is the maroon who gave this excellent thread one star?
  17. Box_O_Rocks

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    Question for all the people talking about NE spending big money in an uncapped 2010:
    -- Do you expect NE to make the playoffs?
    ---- If yes, how does NE acquire these big money Free Agents with the restrictions affecting playoff team's opportunity to sign Free Agents?
  18. Box_O_Rocks

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    The same fun loving soul rating everything one star.
  19. eom

    eom Rookie

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    if you mean the rule of 8, they have about 30 contracts expiring this season, so I'd imagine they'd have SOME attrition of free agents to replace.

    if you mean the further restrictions of being in the final 4, or whatever, I have no idea what those are.
  20. MoLewisrocks

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    Bledsoe's dead cap after year 1 of his $100M deal was $6.6m. He cost them $10M. Law had $12M left on his deal when refused restructure. The Pats offered to keep him here on a 4 year deal that would have guaranteed him $12M of that in the first two years of a 4 year $24M extension. At a time when Champ Bailey was already making $9M per... He was worth $6M. Not $9m. So he had to go. Milloy had to go because he refused to restructure following a year in which he didn't earn his salary...

    Both Colvin and AD took less than expected and less than the going rate for top tier FA OLB at the time they were signed. Belichick won't overpay, even if a faction of the market will.

    In 2005 on the night he won his third ring, Bob Kraft told the media that he hoped to sign Brady to an extension but if he wanted Manning money it would be tough to get any extension done...

    One of the reasons Kraft is speaking out as one of the management voices committed to doing whatever it takes to get the right deal for the league this time around is because he believes players are already receiving too large a piece of the pie at 60%. He's not going to throw obscene money at FA in an uncapped league because he knows that's not good for the league product long term. And he's 1/32nd of a league where more than half the inflated value of most franchises is tied to league value.
  21. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    No one said that. What was said was that without a cap, some teams will spend more than they would have if there was a cap.

    I'm not worried about Snyder. His free spending can't even get him into the playoffs. As long as he is playing fantasy football with real money, the Redskins aren't going anywhere.

    The teams to worry about are teams with money to spend and who can build cometitive teams. And the biggest team people should worry about is THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS. You think everyone dislikes the Pats now? Wait until Kraft re-signs all his key players and signs one or two more key FAs and BB pulls out the draft of the century with picks he moved back from this year. Pats will have a terrific team and will be despised by everyone west of the Berkshires.
  22. MoLewisrocks

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    You're wrong about why they let Samuel and Branch and even Givens and Woody and Willie walk. It was because he believed they weren't worth what the market was willing to pay them. And he was right.

    Another reason they won't do what you predict is because it would undermine their system and the salary structure across the board. And that's the underpinning of the system. Pioli is installing the same system in KC. He has over $40M in cap yet he isn't signing every FA he can get his hands on. He figures like Kraft does that bluster aside, the cap will return and bite those who abused in in a last capped or uncapped year in the ass. You still have to pay all that guaranteed money irrespective of cap consequence or performance. They've had an unspoken but acknowledged rule of thumb here for the last 4-5 years. No one on this roster makes more than the QB. And the QB makes no more than 10-12% of the cap. Their discipline in maintaining their system isn't going to evaporate over an uncapped year.
  23. Box_O_Rocks

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    This was part of post over at Planet discussing an uncapped 2010:
    I expect New England will lose some Free Agents, which appears to have been part of the planning all along. That will allow them an opportunity to bring in some help, but the big spending dreamers may be disappointed with the cash restrictions involved.
  24. nashvillepatsfan

    nashvillepatsfan Rookie

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    none of this matters. They will get a deal done in time, and there will be a cap. IMHO :D


    If they don't, and there's a stoppage, ouch. That'll make 2 years that Brady loses to make his point that he's the best ever.
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2009
  25. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    That is true...if a team can make MORE money by spending way less...it's what will be the bottom line...so there will be two extremes...SPEND like crazy or spend little...fot owners..the bottom line is all that matters...THAT will not be good for pro football...the rich will get richer the poor will be worse off...
  26. Rob0729

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    The reason they were not worth the money they were given is because of the cap. If Kraft says build a winner and money is no object next year in an uncapped year, Belichick isn't going to not sign a free agent because he feels he isn't worth the money. Branch and Samuel were not worth the cap hit they are occupying. Pioli and Belichick couldn't care less what it would cost to sign them in real dollars. They are in charge of football operations, not profit and losses. If Kraft doesn't care about the money in an uncapped year, Belichick certainly won't.

    Again, I never said that every team would spend like drunken sailors. What does a small market franchise like the Chiefs being $40 million under the cap have to do with a billionaire like Daniel Snyder who uses the Redskins as a fantasy football team and is always right up against the cap.

    MLB has no cap and it doesn't mean that every team spends like crazy. There are about a half dozen teams that do while other's entire payroll equals A-Rod's salary. That is what I expect in the NFL. The Redskins, Cowboys, and Pats (and a few others) will be the Red Sox and Yankees of the NFL and teams like Cincy will be the Pirates of the NFL.

    As for for the QB rule, Brady will probably get a new contract next year anyway especially if it is an uncapped year. So he will most likely be the highest paid player on the team even if the Pats spend a lot. I guarantee you if there is an uncapped year, Kraft will take full advantage of paying Brady a huge 2009 salary or roster bonus in 2009 to help in future cap hits if the salary cap is reintroduced. The Pats could give him $30-40 million in 2009 and have it completely off the books come 2010 if the salary cap is reintroduced in 2010. His future cap hits in that scenario could be much lower than they are now. That is the benefit of an uncapped year.

    I guarantee you teams will take advantage of the uncapped year if there is one. Not every team, but quite a few. It is the perfect way to acquire big free agents and resign some of your own and actually improve future cap hits for those players.
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2009
  27. Rob0729

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    Well, that's the way MLB works. And nationally, the sport has suffered a lot for it. Baseball is still huge in NY and Boston, but smaller markets where their home team is eliminated from contention before season starts have weak fan support.

    I think that is why owners like Kraft who would benefit personally from a lack of a cap are totally against it. The Pats would be a perenial Super Bowl team with no cap, but the sport would become regionalized like baseball. That isn't good for the league. If that wasn't a concern, Kraft would be all over an uncapped league because he could satisfy both the fan and businessman in himself long beyond the Belichick/Brady era.
  28. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    So, Snyder is hoping his team isn't one of the best 8 in football?
  29. Rob0729

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    First, he would happily sit out of free agency next year for a Super Bowl this year. He hopes he will be have a playoff team and contend for a Super Bowl.

    Second, being one of the top 8 teams doesn't exclude him from spending like crazy next year. It just makes it harder to do. As his free agents get signed by other teams and if any decent players get cut, he can spend like crazy.

    I bet Snyder does expect that an uncapped year is his best shot at winning a title though. He still believes he can buy a championship.
  30. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    How do you guarantee that? You cannot guarantee anything not under your control. You may think the owners will do this or that, but you cannot guarantee they will.

    This type of silly statement is best left to newbies and agitators.

    It is second only to the, "Anyone who doesn't think the way I do is deluded/dumb/not paying attention" as a sign that the speaker has nothing real to support his stance.

    I agree with you that teams will take advantage of an uncapped year, though in ways we probablly cannot even guess, let alone guarantee. NFL owners are businessmen and got rich by taking advantage of opportunities and turning setbacks into opportunities via preparation and executing a sound business plan.

    But it is only our opinion, that's all. That we're right is irrelevant; it's still a guess and a speculation on our part, nothing more.
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