1. Yes, the Patriots' defense is excellent.
2. The Chargers' defense isn't that bad either.
3. I see you mentioned that advantage that the Pats have in YPC for rush plays (3.9 vs 4.2) but failed to mentioned that it was the reverse in YPC for pass plays (5.7 NE vs 5.3 SD). Instead, you chose to focus on the opposing QB's rating as a measure of pass defense.
4. I do agree that a difference is in take-aways. Pats defense may generate slightly more take-aways from INT's (we're essentially the same for fumbles), but you overlook one glaring difference. The Pats have given away almost twice as many INT's/fumbles as the Bolts (27 to 15). Brady has thrown 12 INT's to Rivers' 9 and your team fumbled almost 3 times as much (15 fumbles compared to 6 for the Bolts).
5. From #4, I feel confident that the Bolts D's match up way better in terms of give-aways/take-awys to the Pats O. Conversely, the Bolts just don't fumble and do not throw nearly enough INTs that the Pat's D can take advantage of. Bottom line, I like our O against your D and our D against your O.
1. I agree.
2. I agree, though the consensus is that it is equal or better than the Pats, which I believe is not the case.
3. I have no idea where you got your numbers but SD is giving up 6.62 YPA and 10.46 YPC while NE is giving up 6.73 YPA and 10.89 YPC. While YPA is somewhat relevant for pass defense, I'll take passer rating as a better overall stat anyday because it takes into account comp%, YPA, TDs and INTs. Rushing yards/att and TDs are the best stats for rush defense. This seems pretty obvious to me... but then again most people rank defenses based on total yards, which I find to be just about the worst indicator or defensive effectiveness.
4. I'm glad you brought this up. it is my opinion that while fumbles are very correlated to past success, they are almost irrelevant in predicting the future. In other words, a team that has fumbled 3X less than another team probably has had more success over that period, but that does not mean that in the future they are 3X less likely to fumble the ball. If anything, fumbles and forced fumbles are based more on luck than anything else. I will grant you that LT basically never fumbles and SB is probably slightly less likely to fumble in this game. But if you think that New England is 300% more prone to fumbling in the future than SD is, you are wrong. As far as Rivers throwing fewer INTs than Brady... Brady has not thrown an INT in 5 weeks and a large number of Brady's picks this year have been tipped balls and balls that went off a Patriots hand. Based on Brady's history in the playoffs and BB's history against inexperienced QB's, I'll take my chances with Brady.
5. I'm glad you like the matchups and hopefully your coach feels the same way because if there is one thing BB can do, its come up with schemes for the playoffs. If you are counting on tipped INTs and fumbles and Tom Brady to throw INTs in the playoffs, that just perfect with me. Good luck with that!
I think SD has some advantages including an extra week to prepare, homefield advantage, the best RB in the league, the best TE in the league, a great OL and a better pass rush. plenty of reasons why they would win and maybe if I was a Chargers fan I would feel differently. But again, the bottom line is the Pats have a better defense, a better coach, a better QB and have proven they can win big games at home or on the road.
