Re: Do You Think Brady Ends His Career A Pat ?
I have no idea. He'll be 34 at the beginning of his next contract year unless they restructure and renegotiate this spring.
A lot depends on his health; most folks who watch Brady closely seem to feel he's playing hurt now, but because of the Pats' secrecy we really don't know what his injuries are. In any event, he's taking a lot of hits and has already survived one major injury.
Every QB's longevity is different.
SB era HOF QB's have generally retired somewhere between the ages of 34/35 (Aikman, Bradshaw, Griese, Namath) and 40 (Dawson, Jurgensen, Unitas). The average retirement age for SB era QB's in the HOF is 37.5. Moon was an exception, playing until he was 44 and it looks like Favre is trying to rival him.
Few play at the very highest level into their late 30's or beyond, with Elway the exception and Favre trying to surpass his accomplishment by winning an SB in his 40's. (Montana retired at 38 and had a good two final years, making the Pro Bowl and taking his team to the Conference Championship Game in his next to last season).
Aikman won his last Super Bowl at the age of 29, Bradshaw at 31, Montana at 33 and Elway at 38, the oldest of the HOF QB's to win a Super Bowl so far. The average age at which an SB Era HOF QB won his last Super Bowl is 32.3, with the range from Namath (24) to Elway (38).
The only HOF QB's to win a Super Bowl past the age of 33 were Dawson (34), Staubach (35), Unitas (37) and Elway (38).
So, you can read the glass as either half empty or half full and it clearly is 100% dependent on the health and physiology of the individual.
So, without enough information, I'd just guess that the Krafts would offer him a contract through 2014 or 2015, when he'd be 37 or 38, which would be a four or five year extension (minus one if there's a strike). Brady says he wants to play until he's 40 or 41, so that might not be what he's looking for. We can't know.
I also don't know the kind of money they would offer; I do know that the Krafts aren't sentimental about how they pay their players, so I think we can be certain they won't offer him a "thanks for the memories" contract.
The question will be whether he's worth more and for a longer tenure to another team than the value and longevity the Krafts assess. I used to think it was a slam dunk that he'd stay with Belichick and an organization that he knows is committed to winning, but now I just don't know.