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Do you believe in "clutch" players?


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Clutch exists, but way too often is just small sample sizes. Football in particular is often formed on such small sample sizes of games. Most commentators confuse this causal trends.

On the same note, I often wonder how much the "parity" in the NFL is only due to there being a 16 game season.
 
When the game is on the line, players try to raise their level of play. Whoever can raise it more is more clutch. For evidence see:

Goal Time Distribution - Leagues - Football - The Hong Kong Jockey Club

The above is a distribution of goal times in the Premier League. As you can see, most goals are scored in the 85th to 90th minute of a soccer game. Clutchness is important.

And it appears that Manchester City was much more clutch than most.
 
Clutch: See Pierce's 3 with 50 seconds to go in game 5
 
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Clutch is making plays when you absolutely need to.
 
clutch is also suicide...as in "suicide clutch"...just take a look at this beauty if you don't believe me..

314570953Indian_Chief_Motorcycles2.jpg
 
I think the idea is easy to over-simplify.

First, in basketball:

  1. You can be a choker or anti-clutch if adrenaline in tight situations makes you miss your shots.
  2. You can be a choker or anti-clutch if you wisely are afraid to shoot in clutch situations, because you'd miss if you did, and similarly if you foolishly refuse even though you'd actually hit the shots at your usual rate.
  3. You can be clutch on defense if you play a guy more tightly and successfully in ISO in clutch situations than you do on average. Pierce has excelled at this his whole career. Even when he didn't play good defense the rest of the game, he do clutch shutdowns of prime McGrady, prime Carter, post-prime Jordan, etc.
  4. You can be clutch if your mind races under pressure in a positive way and you're more likely to make the right judgment about a pass or whatever. You can be a choker if you're more likely to make a bonehead choice.
#1 carries over to FG kicking, probably not so much to passing. It probably applies very little to most other positions.

#2 doesn't carry over to football at all.

#3 carries over well to football. I thought McGinest was a much more effective rusher in clutch situations than he was on average overall. I imagine that in general it carries over well to the positions that engage in direct physical combat -- which is most of them.

#4 seems to carry over to football. It's compounded by the fact that the offense and defense may change in 2-minute-drive situations. One reason Brady seemed clutch early on was that he simply was better in the no-huddle shotgun than in other sets.
 
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No, I do not believe that there are players that suddenly get substantially better in high pressure moments, but I do believe there are players who get worse. As other posters have mentioned, it comes down to sample size. Players do not have that many chances to attempt or defend against game winning Super Bowl drives. Are one or two or even four or fives drives really enough to judge whether a player can consistently succeed in that situation? Only in the storyline driven world that we sports fans create.
 
No, I do not believe that there are players that suddenly get substantially better in high pressure moments, but I do believe there are players who get worse. As other posters have mentioned, it comes down to sample size. Players do not have that many chances to attempt or defend against game winning Super Bowl drives. Are one or two or even four or fives drives really enough to judge whether a player can consistently succeed in that situation? Only in the storyline driven world that we sports fans create.

well...uh...all I have to say about that is MICHAEL JORDAN...you can believe what YOU want...

and before you try to differentiate between sports...clutch is clutch...from tiddleewinks to tennis...basketball to football to baseball..
 
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