Do we really know? (a short excerpt)

[PatsBoy12]

Hi all. Every year shortly before and around draft time we all form an idea of who we want our beloved Patriots to pick. We prognosticate and then watch with anticipation on draft night. We then sit, often bewildered, as we watch the team move up and down (usually down) the draft board. Many, myself included, become frustrated when we watch the Patriots pass on the player we feel is the solution to some perceived hole. Surely, we know what we're talking about. We know the players that will best fit the system and fill the team's needs. We've watched these players on TV every Saturday and on Youtube a few days leading up to the draft. How can the team pass on a sure thing?

Well, I came across a short excerpt which suggests that maybe BB and Co. have done their research and really do know more than us, even if it's just a little more. It seemingly suggests that the countless hours spent watching these guys on film and in person gives the organization an inside track that the fans simply can never have. I'm surely not suggesting that they always get it right. I acknowledge that for every Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, or Jerod Mayo (seemingly), there's a Chad Jackson, Bethel Johnson, or Wheatley (seemingly). However, we can be sure that in each case, good or bad, the guys who make the decisions have done their diligence on the players and know quite a bit more about them than we do.

Quick-hit thoughts around NFL & Pats - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

6. Entering the 2009 draft, a lot of time was spent considering the possibility of the Patriots drafting any of Southern Cal’s three linebackers – Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews and Ray Maualuga. Two of the three (Cushing, Maualuga) have already been in the NFL headlines for the wrong reasons.

 

[Ring 6]

Hi all. Every year shortly before and around draft time we all form an idea of who we want our beloved Patriots to pick. We prognosticate and then watch with anticipation on draft night. We then sit, often bewildered, as we watch the team move up and down (usually down) the draft board. Many, myself included, become frustrated when we watch the Patriots pass on the player we feel is the solution to some perceived hole. Surely, we know what we're talking about. We know the players that will best fit the system and fill the team's needs. We've watched these players on TV every Saturday and on Youtube a few days leading up to the draft. How can the team pass on a sure thing?

Well, I came across a short excerpt which suggests that maybe BB and Co. have done their research and really do know more than us, even if it's just a little more. It seemingly suggests that the countless hours spent watching these guys on film and in person gives the organization an inside track that the fans simply can never have. I'm surely not suggesting that they always get it right. I acknowledge that for every Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, or Jerod Mayo (seemingly), there's a Chad Jackson, Bethel Johnson, or Wheatley (seemingly). However, we can be sure that in each case, good or bad, the guys who make the decisions have done their diligence on the players and know quite a bit more about them than we do.

Quick-hit thoughts around NFL & Pats - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

As fans we have about 2% of the information and assessment that teams have on these players. Some posters truly believe they are better drafters than NFL teams, even with only that 2% of the information, ignoring the skill, training, and knowledge that it takes to analyze that information.
Then when all is said and done, every draft choice is simply a work in progress who must progress astronomically beyond where they are on the day they are drafted in many areas, including:
-Working out to become bigger,stronger, and faster
-Improving techniques because top picks can getby in college on ability and weak technique, but can't in the pros
-Being a professional football player, including staying out of trouble, nutrition, lifestyle, dedication, etc Again a top player can party all night in college and still get by on talent, but will flop in the NFL
-Adapting to the differences between the college and pro game
-Dealing with the fact that it is much harder in the NFL, that you have a battle against everyone you line up against. In college maybe 10% of the guys you face are good enough to make it to the NFL and they are 20 now you are facing 27 year olds who are 7 years bigger, stronger and technically sound

In the end, you need a crystal ball to know what the raw product you draft will evolve into. Thats why half the picks bust, not because their ability was poorly assessed, but because they did not progress (or progress enough) AFTER being drafted. If it were possible to determine commitment, discipline and will before the draft, players would end up performing in the order they were drafted and there would be no busts.

The ones I have a problem with are the Chad Jacksons, assuming I understand why he failed correctly, because it appears he failed because he was too stupid to grasp the NFL and unlike a guy covering up laziness (anyone who has ever hired please tell me you never were duped into hiring a lazy guy becuase he interviewed well, and I will call bs) I expect they should be able to ferret out the lack of intelligence at least in the first few rounds with guys they interviewed.
I don't think a pick like Wheatley, who just looks like a guy who never progressed beyond the guy he was on draft day is inherently a bad pick. It turned out that way, but the facts that would have made it clear were too deeply hidden to be part of the decision.

 

[Patspsycho]

In the end, you need a crystal ball to know what the raw product you draft will evolve into. Thats why half the picks bust, not because their ability was poorly assessed, but because they did not progress (or progress enough) AFTER being drafted. If it were possible to determine commitment, discipline and will before the draft, players would end up performing in the order they were drafted and there would be no busts.

There are just so many dynamic variables and factors that are always changing and evolving, that are in play when you try to assess how someone will play at this level. It's not like the NFL drafts static units with fixed values. They're drafting human beings, and if you know anything about human behavior, you know it's complex.

Like Pat Riley used to say, "when you squeeze an orange, what do you get? you get orange juice." What is being implied here is you can't squeeze a player and see what comes out, you won't know how he will do until he performs under pressure (the squeeze). You can't also forecast his maturity level, his growth, and what he does with his experience (learn from them/repeat them) because those are not fixed values.

And this is why, despite the extent to which the Patriots go about evaluating their draft prospects (which is a pretty complex formula in itself, which compounds the whole process even further in my opinion), I sometimes think that they may in fact be better off using a much more simple set of core identifiers such as the Colts do- and we know the Colts have performed very well in the draft over the years, as well as anyone else has done, to the point of not being known for big FA signings.

 

[The Coon]

i believe that many of us on this board could draft better than the Detroit Lions did when Millen was running the front office.

 

[CoachK]

As fans we have about 2% of the information and assessment that teams have on these players. Some posters truly believe they are better drafters than NFL teams, even with only that 2% of the information, ignoring the skill, training, and knowledge that it takes to analyze that information.
Then when all is said and done, every draft choice is simply a work in progress who must progress astronomically beyond where they are on the day they are drafted in many areas, including:
-Working out to become bigger,stronger, and faster
-Improving techniques because top picks can getby in college on ability and weak technique, but can't in the pros
-Being a professional football player, including staying out of trouble, nutrition, lifestyle, dedication, etc Again a top player can party all night in college and still get by on talent, but will flop in the NFL
-Adapting to the differences between the college and pro game
-Dealing with the fact that it is much harder in the NFL, that you have a battle against everyone you line up against. In college maybe 10% of the guys you face are good enough to make it to the NFL and they are 20 now you are facing 27 year olds who are 7 years bigger, stronger and technically sound

In the end, you need a crystal ball to know what the raw product you draft will evolve into. Thats why half the picks bust, not because their ability was poorly assessed, but because they did not progress (or progress enough) AFTER being drafted. If it were possible to determine commitment, discipline and will before the draft, players would end up performing in the order they were drafted and there would be no busts.

The ones I have a problem with are the Chad Jacksons, assuming I understand why he failed correctly, because it appears he failed because he was too stupid to grasp the NFL and unlike a guy covering up laziness (anyone who has ever hired please tell me you never were duped into hiring a lazy guy becuase he interviewed well, and I will call bs) I expect they should be able to ferret out the lack of intelligence at least in the first few rounds with guys they interviewed.
I don't think a pick like Wheatley, who just looks like a guy who never progressed beyond the guy he was on draft day is inherently a bad pick. It turned out that way, but the facts that would have made it clear were too deeply hidden to be part of the decision.

Great post Andy !!

 

[Sciz]

I agree completely. One thing to add is that knowing the system and ruling out prospects based on that is much easier than naming prospects that should have been picked. Waaaaaaay too many Patriots forum posters (not too bad here, though) are mad at Bill for passing on guys like Clay Matthews, Jerry Hughes, and Lamarr Woodley, and for not trading for guys like Dumervil. Learn the system, and then come complain!