I think we have a chance and here's why.......
I did some in depth research and I came to the conclusion that the New England offense is VASTLY overrated. New England has played BY FAR the easiest schedule in the NFL so far and they play in what might be the worst division in NFL history. Now, I am not saying they are not a good team, indeed they probably are the best team in the NFL right now, but the stats they have been putting up so far are greatly inflated. Now this is going to get quite in depth but I found a lot of interesting things out (like the fact that the Baltimore Ravens are BY FAR the worst team in the NFL with a winning record and its not even close).
First of all, who has New England beaten? The Jets (1-6), the Chargers (3-3), the Bills (2-4), the Bengals (2-4), the Browns (3-3), The Cowboys (6-1), and the Dolphins (0-7). As you can see they have only played one team with a winning record, that being the Cowboys. The record of the teams they have played is a combined 17-28 (a truly pathetic .378 winning percentage). Remove the Cowboys from that equation and it gets even worse, the other six teams have a combined record of 11-27 (.289).
Now let's look at each team's victories in detail. The Dolphins are probably the worst team in football and have yet to win. The Jets are almost as bad having only beaten the Dolphins. The Bills and Bengals are just as pathetic having only beaten the Jets and Ravens each (you will start to see why I say the Ravens are total crap). The Browns are also awful despite a 3-3 record as they have only beaten the Bengals, Ravens and Dolphins. Even the Cowboys victories are not that impressive when you see that three of their wins are against the Dolphins, Rams (0-7), and Bills. When you put this all together it becomes apparent that the seven teams that the Patriots have dismantled this year have a grand total of six victories against teams other than the Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Ravens, Bengals, and Rams. Wow, truly pathetic stuff. If these teams didn't get to play each other so much the Jets, Dolphins, Bills, Bengals, and Browns could all EASILY be winless.
So, lets look at exactly what makes these teams so bad! The answer is easy, DEFENSE! As it stands right now, through seven weeks of the season, the Dolphins, Jets, Bengals, Bills, and Browns are FIVE OF THE SIX WORST DEFENSES IN THE NFL!!!! Currently, the defensive rankings go like this:
Rank Team YPG
27. Dolphins 365.1
28. Jets 377.7
29. Bengals 384.7
30. Lions 385.8
31. Bills 402.5
32. Browns 413.0
A-ha! But you say obviously those teams will all be ranked in the last six in defense, they had to play the Patriots! But that is not the case at all. I looked up the individual game stats from every game the Pats had played this year and removed the offensive numbers they had put up against these five very bad teams and then recalculated the Yds/Game they conceded to the other five or six teams they played (five if they have had a bye so far). What I found out was amazing, controlling for the Patriots made virtually no difference (in fact the Browns stats actually GOT WORSE as they have been giving up 413 yds/game but only conceded 412 to the Pats). After this calibration the worst NFL defenses look like this:
Rank Team YPG
25. Dolphins 352.2
26. Bears 357.4 (see what happens when you sign Archuletta! )
27. Vikings 359.0
28. Jets 368.8
29. Bengals 380.8
30. Lions 385.8
31. Bills 386.0
32. Browns 413.2
As you can see, only the Dolphins stats improved significantly. After removing the yards that the Pats put on these teams from the equation the Pats have only played FOUR OF THE FIVE WORST DEFENSES in the NFL!!!! (or five of the eight worst).
Now don't get me wrong, I truly believe that Brady is the best QB in the game but it puts his numbers into perspective. He has had a dream schedule so far. Any NFL QB would kill for that.
So now lets look at the Redskins. First lets start with some stats. The Redskins schedule so far has been infinitely more difficult than the Pats'. The overall record of their opponents is 19-20 (.487). However, remove the Dolphins pathetic record from that and their other opponents are a combined 19-13 (.594). Despite that they are still 3-2 against those teams (4-2 overall) and many outside observers believe they should be 5-1 or 6-0 right now.
And why are the Redskins winning? Because of their stellar defense. There is no doubt that they have the best pass defense in the NFL! On defense, they rank first in QB Rating and Yards per Attempt, second in Passing TDs allowed and Opposing QB Completion Percentage, third in points conceded, and fourth in total yards per game (first in the NFC). (By the way, Tom Brady leads QBs in EACH of those categories - talk about a fantastic matchup!)
That's all well and good but how good are the passing offenses they have played? The answer is EXCELLENT. Every team they have played this year has a passing offense ranked in the top half of the NFL in passing yards per game! Green Bay is ranked 2nd, Detroit is seventh, Arizona is 9th, Philadelphia is 14th, Miami is 15th, and the Giants are 16th. Despite playing all of these very good passing attacks only once this year has the Redskins defense given up more than 220 yds passing!!! Even in that game they only gave up 280.
So essentially, this weekend you have the NFL's best passing offense (which has achieved that title by playing the league's WORST defenses) going up against the best pass defense in the NFL (which has achieved that by playing the NFL's BEST passing attacks). That is a fact! Now, in my opinion, the Redskins defense has EARNED its spot while the Pats offense has yet to face a decent rival. This is just an amazing matchup!
What's more you have the NFL's best WR going up against the NFL's best coverage defender. Sean Taylor leads the NFL in Ints (5) and also leads the NFL in passes defended (14). Randy Moss leads the league in TDs and yards. We also all know that Randy Moss is Sean Taylor's biotch as well. In two previous meetings Moss has just 8 receptions for 106 yds and a TD when facing a Sean Taylor defense and Gregg Williams has often made Taylor guard Moss one-on-one. What's more, from watching highlights it is clear that Brady's favorite play this year is to just heave the ball up to Moss and make him go get it. He will not even attempt that this week as Taylor is one of the few DBs big enough and athletic enough to jump with Moss, if the Green Bay game showed anything it was that such a strategy will most likely result in 2-3 interceptions for Sean Taylor.
So will the Redskins win? I wouldn't bet on it, after all we still need to score, our o-line is completely depleted and Belichek is a defensive mastermind. However, this game is BY NO MEANS A MISMATCH! If Rabach and Thomas were healthy this would be another story but they aren't. The reason I went to this effort is to show just what a good matchup this is and to give you guys some ammo to throw around if people start telling you the Redskins have no shot. They sure as heck do, they match up better against the Pats than any team in the NFL! When people try to tell you how awesome the Pats are explain to them just how weak their schedule has been and when people say this will be a blowout show that the Redskins have easily the best passing defense in the NFL.
HTTR!!!!
