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Did the surge stop the violence?

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Patters, Jul 23, 2008.

  1. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/numbers/2007/

    Year.......Civilians Killed
    2003......10,077 – 12,010
    2004......09,741 – 10,573
    2005......13,071 – 14,324
    2006......25,699 – 27,519
    2007......22,586 – 24,159

    * The most violent 12-month period in Iraq’s recent history extended from July 2006 to June 2007, with 29,625 to 31,852 civilian deaths recorded.
    * Trends from mid-2007 onwards show monthly violence levels on the decrease.
    * Since March 2007 every month has seen more civilian deaths outside Baghdad than inside it. This has never happened before.
    * Per-capita, the five most violent governorates in Iraq during 2007 were:
    1. Diyala, at 255 violent civilian deaths per 100,000 inhabitants (up 29% from 197/100k in 2006)
    2. Baghdad, at 164/100k (down 39% from 267/100k)
    3. Anbar, at 122/100k (up 61% from 76/100k) 4
    4. Salah al-Din, at 120/100k (up 26% from 95/100k)
    5. Ninewa, at 100/100k (up 143% from 41/100k)


    http://www.iraqbodycount.org/about/

    IBC’s documentary evidence is drawn from crosschecked media reports of violent events leading to the death of civilians, or of bodies being found, and is supplemented by the careful review and integration of hospital, morgue, NGO and official figures.

    Systematically extracted details about deadly incidents and the individuals killed in them are stored with every entry in the database. The minimum details always extracted are the number killed, where, and when.

    Confusion about the numbers produced by the project can be avoided by bearing in mind that:

    * IBC’s figures are not ‘estimates’ but a record of actual, documented deaths.
    * IBC records solely violent deaths.
    * IBC records solely civilian (strictly, ‘non-combatant’) deaths.
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2008
  2. ljuneau

    ljuneau Rookie

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    I'm not going to dispute your numbers since I have no idea if they are accurate or not. However, to conclude if the surge has reduced the violence or not, wouldn't you have to post the data for 2008? I don't see numbers for this year.

    Post credible numbers for 2008 and maybe we could answer your question.
  3. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/

    It would appear that the surge actually increased the among of violence and now it's starting to return to pre-surge levels.
  4. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    From the website you provided.

    Deaths per day from suicide attacks and vehicle bombs (now includes non-vehicle suicide attacks)
    [​IMG]


    Deaths per day from gunfire / executions
    [​IMG]


    From www.icasualties.com

    Iraqi Deaths

  5. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    Paying the sunnis stopped the violence.
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2008
  6. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think the biggest impact of the surge was to help increase violence to a higher level so that when the violence returned to presurge levels, the righties would all be fooled into thinking we're winning. As they say, you can fool some of the people some of the time.
  7. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    1) I would like to believe you, but ljuneau is right. You didn't post any stats for 2008.
    The surge began mid 2007.

    2) Also, to those just keeping score as to only US troop casualties - - what about overall violence/casualties? What will happen when we decide that we have to save our own economy and stop paying off other nations' tribes to make nice? The minute we leave, do you actually believe there will be a pro-American government in place - - - or do we just never ever leave and spend trillions of our treasury to keep the peace inside Iraq?
  8. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    I don't know what's more pathetic, your posts, or the fact that you actually believe what's in them.
  9. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The chart I posted here shows 2008 isn't all that great. Plus, they offer specifics below the chart.

    http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/

    Yes, the surge began in 2007, but it does not appear it's made Iraq any safer than it was in early 2006. They had a surge, we had a surge. Their surge ended. Our surge ended. That does not mean the insurgents will not have another surge of their own or that they did it to distract us from Afghanistan.
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2008
  10. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well there is investment flooding into the country and the Iraqi's feel they are safer, but to the dead end lefties who were hoping for an American defeat it must be very disappointing to contemplate an American victory.


    OTOH yopu don't even see that the media is in the bag for BO so you seem to left self delusion. :rolleyes:
  11. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Very easy to determine if the Surge Works, if the NY Times, CBS, NBC aren't talking about it, THEN IT'S WORKING.
  12. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    What are you talking about? We WANT it to go well.

    In fact, we are still anxiously anticipating all the Cheney-promised Iraqi oil revenues to pay for the whole adventure! It should be coming in anytime soon, right?
  13. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    This is just Patters' way of trying to deflect Obama's crazy statement about the surge last night.
  14. PatsFanInEaglesLand

    PatsFanInEaglesLand Rookie

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    Who Patters or Holy Diver?

    Both posts were F_______ S______. :banned:
  15. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think you're making the assumption that if we win the war, suddenly there is no reason to oppose Bush. But, you're wrong. Let's suppose that in the next few months, Iraq achieves true peace and that all the sects come together to form a stable government.

    The questions will still remain: Was it worth $500 billion? Was it worth 4000 American lives and the lives of thousands of Iraqis? Was it worth destroying much of Iraq's infrastructure and allowing their museums to be looted? Will the country be a trustworthy ally? Will they make peace with Israel? Will they accord women at least the same rights that Saddam accorded them? Will they be able to help blunt the military gains Iran made after the fall of Saddam?

    A victory would be even be good for Obama in that if there's anything that the American people like about McCain, it's that on paper he has some better qualifications than Obama in terms of waging this war. Take the war out of the equation and focus solely on national issues and Obama becomes a stronger candidate.

    I would like to see us win in Iraq, but I think that victory is a long way off. The fact that the country and especially Baghdad is more stable is a good sign, but will that stability still hold a few months after the surge troops leave? Even General Petraeus said early on that we won't know the effectiveness of the surge because the insurgents might simply law low and wait until the surge was over.
  16. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    Patters. The dude who someone else described as "living in a bubble".
  17. PressCoverage

    PressCoverage Banned

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    exactly....
  18. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No the question in this campaign is was the surge the right idea. BO said NO he still says NO. HE said the war is lost we should just pull out he was WRONG. H Reid, N Pelosi and the dem party said the same thing the surge couldn't succeed and that it was time to leave...THEY were WRONG.
  19. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ~~~Out of Order~~~ PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    He's getting nervous ... if Obama fails he has Hillary for 2012 ... Obama has been the great hope since the convention in 2004.
  20. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Huh? I like Hillary. I could easily have supported her if she won the primaries. The biggest reason I supported Obama over her was simply that Obama ran a better campaign.
  21. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    The war was won back in 2003. A complete military victory.

    The OCCUPATION is a big loser for us. BIG LOSER.

    Bush #41 saw it and acted accordingly in 1991 - - he was a pro. The Boy is out of his league and drowning in his foreign policy ignorance.

    Anyone calling the past 4 years in Iraq a "war" wouldn't know the term "war" if it bit them in the ass. This is an occupation/police action right now being mostly being run and profited by contractors and aided by our miltary for the grunt work.

    Good luck to anyone who believes we EVER leave that place in the hands of solid, pro-AMERICAN DEMOCRACY LOVERS. Ignorance of the outside world is a very dangerous thing.
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2008
  22. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ~~~Out of Order~~~ PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey


    Yeah ... but you know Hillary would kill the democrats chances for at least 8 years ... kind of like Bush has ruined the republican party.
  23. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    That's exactly what is happening right now. We have a pro-American Democracy over there. What's interesting is how people call it a war when it suits them, then call it a police action when it doesn't.
  24. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    Agree with the second sentence. It is not a war - it is clearly a poorly run occupation. It was barely a war before "Mission Accomplished". Hard to call anything a war when it involves a basically un-opposed invasion of a 21st century army rolling over one using pre-WWII technology.

    Your first assertion is - no offense - almost laughable. It is a puppet regime. Even a quasi-governmental body like the IOC can see that. You can't call anything a democracy that is being controlled and manipulated at the point of a gun and which cannot defend itself without massive support from occupational forces. Pro American, yes...democracy? You gotta be kidding me! How are the women making out in your "democracy"?
  25. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    No offense taken. With that in mind, what's "laughable", and please don't take offense this ;), is any opinion you have with respect to what's gone/going on in Iraq. Aside from you suffering from BDS on a daily basis, you also suffer from IDS (pretty creative on my part eh?). I guess 15 million or so people openly voting for their elected officials, is pretty "point of a gun". :rolleyes:

    Oh, and last I checked, South Korea can't defend itself either. To answer your question about how women are doing in my "democracy", I'd say about as bad as, or as good, depending on your POV, as women did in this country from 1776 through the better part of the 20th Century. Good, or bad, they're still doing better than people of color had in this "democracy", over it's first two centuries of existence. I know though, Bush sucks, Iraq sucks, Bush sucks, Iraq sucks....Logic, fact, & reason are thrown out the window when either of those two words come up.
  26. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    The Times

    July 23, 2008

    Basra - here's the good news story

    The city is firmly under the grip of Iraq's new security forces, and normal life is returning

    Barney White-Spunner

    There is an interesting piece of graffiti on a bridge near Basra. A fleeing militiaman has scrawled “We'll be back”; underneath an Iraqi soldier has scribbled in reply “And we'll be waiting for you”.

    The Shia militias, the Jaish al- Mahdi, who controlled large parts of Basra until March this year, has now gone and instead the city is firmly under the grip of Iraq's new security forces, in whom the coalition has invested so much training. They re-established control in April, in an operation romantically named “The Charge of the Knights”, systematically clearing the city with British and American support, confiscating illegal weapons and arresting the violent gangs whose combination of criminality and vicious extremism was making life a misery for so many of Basra's people.

    Around the city the posters of religious leaders are being replaced with billboards advertising cars and mobile phones and photographs of Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, who is rightly credited with being the driving force behind the army's crackdown. You see the symbol of The Charge of the Knights everywhere, a black horse carrying the flag of Iraq trampling the gangsters underfoot.

    This improvement in security has made Basrawis more confident of their future than at any time since 2003. A recent poll showed that only 8 per cent now regard security as their main concern; 80 per cent have confidence in the Iraqi security forces to protect them. Women are free to walk the streets uncovered and to wear Western dress should they so choose.


    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4379923.ece

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