Did losing Adam V. cost us two Superbowls?

[cstjohn17]

Just a random thought...

• 2006 - Adam V. provides the Colts a new sense of confidence, kicks 5 FGs against the Ravens. His presence on the Colts is more important than actual on field production, at least they don't have Vander ' The Shank' Jerk.
• 2007 - BB sends Adam V. out for a 48 yard FG in the Superbowl. Lack of of confidence in Ghost costs the Patriots.

 

[RayClay]

no.

He's only a fg kicker. doesn't play defense.

there is nothing he can possibly do that is worth more than 1 point or three points.

Usually his success is a failure on the part of the team to score a touchdown.

Most pro kickers make 90-100% of the same kicks consistently.

 

[Deus Irae]

Adam V. was kicking inside a dome and still finished under 80% with a long of 39 yards. Gostkowski finished at 87.5 with a long of 45 yards, and was doing it with Gillette as his home stadium.

 

[tobias funke]

Just when you thinks threads can't possibly get any dumber...

 

[dhamz]

Since BB had zero confidence in Adam on long FGs his last season in NE, he surely would have had none in SB 42.

 

[Rob0729]

Just a random thought...

• 2006 - Adam V. provides the Colts a new sense of confidence, kicks 5 FGs against the Ravens. His presence on the Colts is more important than actual on field production, at least they don't have Vander ' The Shank' Jerk.
• 2007 - BB sends Adam V. out for a 48 yard FG in the Superbowl. Lack of of confidence in Ghost costs the Patriots.

1.) Vinatieri didn't provide the Colts with a new sense of confidence. He did play a key role in the Ravens' playoff game, but he did nothing for the Colts' confidence. If one player did anything for their confidence in the playoffs, it was Bob Sanders who returned not Vinatieri. Vinatieri certainly wasn't the reason the Colts overcame a 21-6 halftime deficite over the Patriots.

2.) We do not know why Belichick chose to go for it in the Super Bowl. If you go back and look at Vinatieri's last year with the Patriots, Belichick did do similiar things with Vinatieri. In 2005, Belichick barely even attempted a field goal over 39 yards after week three. Vinatieri was 2 for 6 on field goal attempts over 39 yards (only one was over 49 yards) that year. This year, Vinatieri was 1 for 4 in field goal (if you include playoffs) attempts over 39 yards (and that is in a dome for half the games). Exactly how would Belichick have been more confident in Vinatieri?

Vinatieri is just a kicker. I don't know if Belichick lost confidence im Gostkowski or that Belichick just feels that anything over 40 yards that he is better off going for it. I think blaming the loss of Vinatieri for us not winning Super Bowls either this year or last year is just incorrect.

 

[scout]

Do you remember Adam V. missing kicks in any Superbowls, or just remember his game winners?

 

[ScottieC]

Yes. Absolutely.

With Adam V. the Offensive line would have played MUCH better in this years Super Bowl and helped keep Brady vertical as opposed to spending the game on his back. No to mention with Adam V., Asante would have caught that ball and Rodney would have been able to knock that ball down from Tyree (sp?).

And as for last years 3rd and 4th qtr. collapse against the Colts, YES YES YES Adam would have made a difference in stopping Peyton.

Adam V. is the greatest footballer of all time, his mere presence is enough to carry a team.

That was a brilliant question and as such I have given brilliant commentary to support it.

Man, I'm sick of this crap. I need for the season to start ASAP.

 

[mojocaster.com]

no.

He's only a fg kicker. doesn't play defense.

Bingo. :rocker:

 

[cstjohn17]

Just when you thinks threads can't possibly get any dumber...

Actually rock bottom hits a couple of days after the draft...

Just a random thought, not based in reality. All the stat heads out there missed the point completely. Anyone who has played team sports understands the importance of confidence. Vanderjack was the highest rated kicker in the history of football but does anyone think the Colts felt good running him out there in a clutch situation?

Adam V. won several games for the Colts in 06 (Denver and someone else), this helped them obtain home field advantage. In 2007 he sucked but maybe BB would have had more confidence to kick the FG in the Superbowl.

 

[spacecrime]

Just when you thinks threads can't possibly get any dumber...

OMG! I've seen some asinine threads this offseason, but this one is so stupid the poster should be immediately neutered to prevent inflicting his genes on unsuspecting future generations.

 

[Keegs]

ummm no, but he almost lost us the Carolina superbowl with his crappy kicks.

please merge this with the thread about Jimi Hendrix so that we can compact the stupidity into one thread.

 

[blackglass3]

Just when you thinks threads can't possibly get any dumber...

I agree this is bad, but I am betting there will be a thread the week before the draft that will have us want to choke the nearest living creature due to sheer stupidity.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Just when you thinks threads can't possibly get any dumber...

They do ...

 

[Remix 6]

its not like Adam did anything Stephen hasnt ... they both made the FGs they were asked to .

 

[BillKnowsHoodies]

No, we know why we lost!

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Not that the original post isn't flawed enough as it is, but something that wasn't mentioned yet is how against Indy last year we went for it on 4th and fairly long in the 1st half while in FG range (I believe) and that led to a TD for us. So even if you hold the failed 4th and 11 against the loss of Adam, which you shouldn't anyways IMO, then you're just contradicting yourself.

 

[otis p. driftwood]

Do you remember Adam V. missing kicks in any Superbowls, or just remember his game winners?

A good and fair question.

 

[sebman2112]

On FG's 40 yards plus in 2007 Adam was an amazing 0-3, and his overall FG percentage made was 79.3%

On FG's 40 yards plus in 2007 Stephen was 3-5, and his overall FG percentage made was 87.5%

I'm sorry, but Ghost is currently the better kicker, and Vinatieri doesn't have an accurate leg on long FG's anymore. So, AV wouldn't have done anything but miss that FG, sorry.

 

[Wotan_the_Wanderer]

I don't know if Belichick lost confidence im Gostkowski or that Belichick just feels that anything over 40 yards that he is better off going for it.

First, I don't think Gostkowski really endeared himself nor did he win BB's confidence when he shanked a KO out of bounds following a Pats TD to give the Giants the ball at their 40. I actually posted my concerns about Gost flirting with the sideline too much months ago and I also used Carney shank in the '03 SB as an example for this concern.

While I don't think we'll know exactly what went through BB's head when he decided to go for it on 4th and 11, a few more things to consider:

Gostkowski for his career from the 40-49 range is 5 for 9 for a 55.6% success rate. The longest FG Gost made in the 2007 season was a 45 yarder.

The Patriots offense's 4th down conversions for the 2007 season was 16 for 24 which includes their 1 for 3 4th down conversion ratio in the post-season.

"Bellman Equation":

From a NY Times article, Feb. 1, '04

By David Leonhardt

[snip]

But when his conclusion - teams punt too much - began getting attention
last summer, a reporter asked Bill Belichick, the coach of the New
England Patriots, about the paper.


"I read it," he said, according to The Boston Herald. "I don't know much
of the math involved, but I think I understand the conclusions and he
has some valid points."


Upon hearing that, Professor Romer's jaw dropped, he said. His paper was
available only on his Berkeley Internet site, emlab.berkeley.edu
/users/dromer, and the site of a group called the National Bureau of
Economic Research.


But the most interesting development was yet to come. Two weeks ago,
facing a fourth down in the Patriots' own territory on the very first
drive of the game - a sure punting situation in the N.F.L. - Belichick
decided to go for a first down and made it. The Patriots soon scored a
touchdown and were on their way to today's Super Bowl, against the
Carolina Panthers.


Football analysts immediately called the decision an instance of a
coach's instinct triumphing over cold analysis. In fact, Professor Romer
said last week, Belichick seemed to be "throwing gut instinct out the
window and going on analysis." The information is right there in Figure
5 of the economist's paper: on fourth and 1 on your own 44-yard line,
the potential benefit of keeping the drive going outweighs the cost of
giving the opponents good field position.

[snip]

http://tinyurl.com/2tl4zd​

I think blaming the loss of Vinatieri for us not winning Super Bowls either this year or last year is just incorrect.

Agreed, and yet I also think people downplaying or dismissing AV's Snowbowl and past SB winning kicks as merely any other kicks are way off.