Did Belichick bring Sabremetrics to the NFL?

[Ivan]

I would not put Mike Florio on par with Bill Belichick on talent evaluation.

Mike Florio runs Pro Football Talk, not Pro Football Focus. One is a gossip site and the other is a make believe metrics site.

 

[Ivan]

Statistics can be a tool in the right hands.

More often than not it is the person using the statistics that is the tool.

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

^ exactly - Florio does not have to account for his picks.

 

[Ivan]

^ exactly - Florio does not have to account for his picks.

Florio has nothing to do with this, I said PFF and he has no connection to them.

 

[DaBruinz]

Actually the answer is no, he didn't and he doesn't. If he did then they would actually pay attention to the make believe fantasy metrics put out by sites like PFF, in which case they would have been picking first every year.

PFF doesn't have football people working for it and many have acknowledged that there are major flaws in their throught processes.

Belichick has and does use statistical analysis of just about every situation to determine what the team should do. It's what led to the 4th and 2 call a few years ago against the Colts that failed. It's what led to him deferring until the 2nd half in 95% of the games where he's won the flip. It's why the Patriots attempt so few two-point conversions in comparison to other teams.

Does Belichick rely SOLELY on statistics? No. But you're being pretty ignorant if you think that statistics don't play a huge role in how Belichick runs the team and makes game-deciding play-calls.

One can read "Management Secrets of the New England Patriots v2" by James Lavin if you need support. In particular, the section on Planning which starts on page 115 and runs through page 244.

 

[Ring 6]

PFF doesn't have football people working for it and many have acknowledged that there are major flaws in their throught processes.

Belichick has and does use statistical analysis of just about every situation to determine what the team should do. It's what led to the 4th and 2 call a few years ago against the Colts that failed. It's what led to him deferring until the 2nd half in 95% of the games where he's won the flip. It's why the Patriots attempt so few two-point conversions in comparison to other teams.

Does Belichick rely SOLELY on statistics? No. But you're being pretty ignorant if you think that statistics don't play a huge role in how Belichick runs the team and makes game-deciding play-calls.

No offense, but I hate posts like this.
How do you know what BB based 4th and 2 on? How would deferring be based on statistics? And even if it could, how would you know BB bases it on statistical analysis. Same with 2 point conversions.

Appeal to authority in an argument is one thing, but to make up what you think his thought process is and treat that guess as a fact and arguing as if it proves something is ridiculous.

 

[Miguel]

I would say that the person who invented the draft picks trade value chart was the 1st person to bring sabermetrics to the NFL.

 

[RayClay]

No offense, but I hate posts like this.
How do you know what BB based 4th and 2 on? How would deferring be based on statistics? And even if it could, how would you know BB bases it on statistical analysis. Same with 2 point conversions.

I'm pretty sure he cited a college study regarding going for it more on fourth down, but i need to leave now and don't have time to verify that.

 

[RayClay]

No offense, but I hate posts like this.
How do you know what BB based 4th and 2 on? How would deferring be based on statistics? And even if it could, how would you know BB bases it on statistical analysis. Same with 2 point conversions.

Appeal to authority in an argument is one thing, but to make up what you think his thought process is and treat that guess as a fact and arguing as if it proves something is ridiculous.

here's one reference.

Along with Mariucci, Bill Belichick of the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots is one of several NFL head coaches who has actually studied Romer's working paper, which, with references and tables, runs a stout 33 pages. Maybe it's because Belichick graduated from Wesleyan University with a bachelor's degree in economics.

"I think, basically, he was saying that if you get down there and don't score, you're putting the other team 80, 90 yards away from the goal line anyway, and the chances of them scoring aren't very good," Belichick said. "You'll probably get the ball back in good field position. And the percentages added up to his conclusion, which was to go for it."

http://static.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/garber_greg/1453717.html

 

[DaBruinz]

I'm pretty sure he cited a college study regarding going for it more on fourth down, but i need to leave now and don't have time to verify that.

The only problem with that is the situation (4th and 2 on the Pats 45) is different than "putting the other team 80,90 yards away from the goal line". Again, it's about the entire situation. BTW, no where did I say that Belichick was the one who brought sabermetrics in. I was just using that as a reference to say that Belichick DOES use sabermetrics. Which was something that IVAN was claiming otherwise.

It's all about context.

 

[Ivan]

The only problem with that is the situation (4th and 2 on the Pats 45) is different than "putting the other team 80,90 yards away from the goal line". Again, it's about the entire situation. BTW, no where did I say that Belichick was the one who brought sabermetrics in. I was just using that as a reference to say that Belichick DOES use sabermetrics. Which was something that IVAN was claiming otherwise.

It's all about context.

Yes, it is about context and what it really comes down to is the definition of football "sabermetrics." I agree that belichick has always used forms of statistical analysis but where i disagree is the "sabermetrics" term, which imo is much more in line with the garbage made up metrics of sites like Pro Football Focus who useed their make believe metrics to claim that ryan Wendell was a top center in the NFL and more recently the Sam Monson horsehi.t analysis of Brady's performance and the claim that the Patriots are not a top 5 team, which given that they have been in the top four for the last three seasons is as ridiculous as it gets. I am not and never have claimed that statistics are completely irrelevant i just think they are a fraction of what should be taken into account and not the complete picture, which some here and everywhere like to make them out to be. I stand by my claim that football is not a game that can be reduced to statistical analysis whereas baseball is much more amenable to that type of analysis. Many will disagree with that but that is how i see it. I don't put credence in the numbers based arguments that are so often used and feel like you have to actually watch the game to know what really happened and how players performed, a box score and "advanced statistics" won't do it justice.

 

[Ring 6]

here's one reference.





http://static.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/garber_greg/1453717.html

Acknowledging a study being done in the topic does not mean he based his decision on statistics.

 

[Ring 6]

here's one reference.





http://static.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/garber_greg/1453717.html

The only problem with that is the situation (4th and 2 on the Pats 45) is different than "putting the other team 80,90 yards away from the goal line". Again, it's about the entire situation. BTW, no where did I say that Belichick was the one who brought sabermetrics in. I was just using that as a reference to say that Belichick DOES use sabermetrics. Which was something that IVAN was claiming otherwise.

It's all about context.

Paying attention to statistics is not "using sabermetrics"

 

[RayClay]

Acknowledging a study being done in the topic does not mean he based his decision on statistics.

Whatever.

 

[RayClay]

Paying attention to statistics is not "using sabermetrics"

I actually made the first reply to the OP. You can read it if you want.

 

[james87654]

im sure he uses analytical thinking and such, but football doesnt lend itself to that sort of stuff as much....the variables are more isolated in baseball and easier to dissect independently, whereas in football they are all working in concert with eachother, so the stats dont mean as much....you have to master the art of game film and technique, etc

just my opinion, could be wrong

 

[Ivan]

im sure he uses analytical thinking and such, but football doesnt lend itself to that sort of stuff as much....the variables are more isolated in baseball and easier to dissect independently, whereas in football they are all working in concert with eachother, so the stats dont mean as much....you have to master the art of game film and technique, etc

just my opinion, could be wrong

Right on the money. Saber metrics implies some sort of "advanced" statistical model and not the longstanding statistics that have been used, and the baseball guys make that clear and actually have disdain for RBI's and other forms of traditional stats, and while that may have some use in a game of individual match ups it has none in football.

Belichick has always used statistical analysis and it influences his views on how to approach the game, such as forcing teams to play on a long field as the likelihood of scoring a TD goes down significantly when an offense has to go 80 yards or more. And I know for a fact he pays attention to combine measurables when looking at the draft, however I don't believe for one second he pays any attention to them once a player has been in the league for a couple of years and I think he would throw up all over himself if someone tried to foist the kind of garbage football metrics that PFF puts out on him.

 

[Ring 6]

Whatever.

That's all you got? Not sure why you jumped in to my post responding to someone else stating that BB used the statistics in that article to make his decision when you come back with "whatever".

 

[Ring 6]

I actually made the first reply to the OP. You can read it if you want.

Which makes your response even more curious. What point are you trying to make here?

 

[RayClay]

Which makes your response even more curious. What point are you trying to make here?

Belichick compiles and uses statistics in targeted ways, though obviously, football doesn't lend itself to judging players by statistics (sabermetrics).

Someone mentioned using them to decide whether to go for it or punt and since i knew their was a study I looked for it and also came up with a direct quote from him.