Defensive Front Seven In Fine Shape

[supafly]

It seems that we should expect more from the kids in next year's AFCCG game. After all, Hightower, Francis and Bequette were rookies. Fletcher and Jones didn't play. We might even get production from Forston or Pryor.

You can wish to upgrade Deaderick, Love Or Ninkovich. I don't think that it is likely to happen.

HOWEVER, I do hope that we would use one of our top 3 picks on a defensive lineman who can help this year or next. We should always be upgrading the defensive front seven.

I think that the OP is fine considering the point, which was that it is a decent starting point. Of course we still need to do some addition/maintenance on the line, and add some more competition and depth for a coverage LB, but that's pretty much been the same every year to some degree.

As Belichick himself pointed out, he will need to assess the specifics of all the positions and figure out how to move ahead accordingly. Most of us seem to want the secondary addressed in free agency with at least a credible S or CB, not to mention a higher draft pick. Belichick may think that free agency provides a better opportunity for the front seven though, which will of course affect his decisions in the draft in other areas.

In other words, we know which positions need addressing the most. I think that we can all agree on some form of CB, S, OL, WR, and DL. What we don't know yet, is which will come through the draft, which will come through free agency, or which will be both..

Some of that prioritizing will be done more with talent in mind (draft or experienced free agent who could make the team better instantly), while others will be looked at with more of an eye towards financial implications (later round picks and lesser signing FA's). Of course the two go hand in hand too on some level, so it isn't like it's one or the other.

At this point in time it's terribly hard to project what positions will be addressed where, who will be kept, and most of all--what our draft picks will be.

And that's why Belichick gets paid the big bucks

 

[mayoclinic]

New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard

I suspect that we will trade our first pick. However, I am all for drafting a DT. The value is often there in the draft, although we might be drafting a RT.

Unfortunately, I believe that we will need to get WR's and CB's in free agency.

The fact that I think that we could start the season today with a solid front seven does NOT mean that we shouldn't use the draft to improve. After all, we could use upgrades/replacements of Love, Deaderick and Cunningham over the next couple of years.

Personally, I said it was a solid starting point, but I'm hoping that the team will add a DT through the draft. My personal preference is to add either a DT or a OL with our 1st with one of our first 2 picks, and if not DT early then a late round guy with high upside. Right now we are picking #29. Some of the potential prospects to consider:

- Johnathan Hankins, Ohio St. 6'3" 320#. #28 currently on NFL DraftScout. Has the versatility to play in 4-3 and 3-4 schemes, and has played 3-4 DE. BB will know all about him from Urban Meyer and Mike Vrabel. Was considered a top 5 talent coming into the season - could be too good a value to pass up if he's on the board.

- Kawann Short, Purdue. 6'3" 308#. NFL DraftScout #42. Very good penetrating DT.

- Brandon Williams, Missouri Souther. 6'2" 341#. NFL DraftScout #69. A small school Vince Wilfork who had 8.5 sacks and 16.5 TFL as the NT. Held his own at the Senior Bowl against better competition and is now projected as a likely 2nd round pick.

- Sylvester Williams, North Carolina. 6'3" 313#. NFL DraftScout #89. A probably day 2 pick, one of the better combinations of run stopping and penetrating ability in the draft.

- Bennie Logan, LSU. 6'3" 295#. NFL DraftScout #131. Seriously undervalued right now. Will probably end up as a day 2 pick.

- Josh Boyd, Mississippi. 6'3" 312#. NFL DraftScout #194. Very solid at the Senior Bowl. Underperformed at Mississippi, but could be a major sleeper. Has some similarities to Geno Atkins coming out of Georgia Tech.

- William Campbell, Michigan. 6'5" 318#. NFL DraftScout #214. My personal late round binky at DT. A former highly recruited prospect who also played OT for a year for Michigan. Late bloomer who has had inconsistency issues but who has a ton of talent. Disappears at times, but is dominant at times. Boom or bust, but has Michael Brockers/Akiem Hicks potential.

Guys like Boyd and Campbell are incredibly talented prospects, they just haven't been able to consistently produce. Neither did Geno Atkins, who is now a 2 time Pro Bowl DT and the best interior pass rusher in the NFL. Neither did Henry Melton, another 2 time Pro Bowl DT, who didn't even play DT at Texas, and was drafted purely on his upside by Chicago. Day 3 doesn't necessarily mean much less talented.

There are other guys of interest (Sharrif Floyd, Jesse Williams) but right now they're likely to go higher than where the Pats pick, so I didn't include them, but they would certainly be worth considering if they slipped.

Add any of those guys to our current front 7 and we've suddenly got a potentially dominant DL.

 

[Fencer]

Let's look at this by packages.

When the Front 7 is really a 7, the guys are:

• Jones
• Wilfork
• Love or Deaderick
• Ninkovich
• Spikes
• Hightower
• Mayo

The most easily upgradable in that group is "Love or Deaderick"

The most important backup is probably the next DE up, as he can arguably substitute for 5 of the 7 guys (all except the DTs, given position flexibility among the others). That was a bit problematic this year -- Cunningham? Scott? It's doubly true if you buy into the position that Ninkovich is a better player with frequent breathers.

Other important backups are the next DT up and, hypothetically, a true LB.

In nickel:

• The DT who isn't Wilfork comes off
• Wilfork could come off, to take all his breathers in sub
• One of Spikes/Hightower comes off
• An inside rusher comes in -- Pryor? Cunningham?

The biggest needs there would seem to be, in some order:

• The aforementioned inside rusher
• Rotation guys at all rushing positions for freshness
• Potentially a coverage LB to get both Spikes and Hightower off the field, at least at times

 

[ausbacker]

All this serious talk of an upgraded tackle next to Big Vince is making me giddy. Another interior beast presence will do wonders for the linebackers and secondary.

 

[mayoclinic]

Let's look at this by packages.

When the Front 7 is really a 7, the guys are:

• Jones
• Wilfork
• Love or Deaderick
• Ninkovich
• Spikes
• Hightower
• Mayo

The most easily upgradable in that group is "Love or Deaderick"

The most important backup is probably the next DE up, as he can arguably substitute for 5 of the 7 guys (all except the DTs, given position flexibility among the others). That was a bit problematic this year -- Cunningham? Scott? It's doubly true if you buy into the position that Ninkovich is a better player with frequent breathers.

Other important backups are the next DT up and, hypothetically, a true LB.

In nickel:

• The DT who isn't Wilfork comes off
• Wilfork could come off, to take all his breathers in sub
• One of Spikes/Hightower comes off
• An inside rusher comes in -- Pryor? Cunningham?

The biggest needs there would seem to be, in some order:

• The aforementioned inside rusher
• Rotation guys at all rushing positions for freshness
• Potentially a coverage LB to get both Spikes and Hightower off the field, at least at times

The ideal scenario - if he pans out - would be for Armond Armstead to be the LDE in the "base" and then move inside on sub packages as the DT, with Ninkovich at DE. But I'm sure a variety of formations will be used, depending on the team and their strengths.

 

[Ivan]

Despite all the talk about S or WR in the first round i am really hoping the Patriots go OL or DL. The talent is there and a trench prospect with big upside is going to be available in April. Whether it is upgrading the starting DL on the other end from Jones or adding a guy like Barrett Jones to the inside of their OL that is the direction I want them to go. They can address their other needs later. I think their depth is fine at D-Line but I really think a starter would greatly improve them.

 

[patriotsdynasty12189]

What about Kevin Williams? Just throwing a name out there I have no idea what his contract situation is or what not or if Minnesota would even consider getting rid of him. But hes a veteran player who (at least was) a great pass rushing defensive tackle. I really like the idea of Glenn Dorsey if we can get him for the cheap because I really think hes built to be a 4-3 penetrating defensive tackle not a 2 gap 3-4 DE and could really explode here.

 

[Kontradiction]

The team needs players, even in the front 7. The question, as I see it, is whether the need is for 3-4 DEs and a cover LB or for 4-3 DTs, a 4-3 DE that can set the edge and a cover LB.

They need a 3-4 DE. The LB corps is more built for the 3-4. We should be getting a coverage LB back in Fletcher and will probably pick one up either in FA, later in the draft, or through an undrafted FA.

 

[mayoclinic]

Despite all the talk about S or WR in the first round i am really hoping the Patriots go OL or DL. The talent is there and a trench prospect with big upside is going to be available in April. Whether it is upgrading the starting DL on the other end from Jones or adding a guy like Barrett Jones to the inside of their OL that is the direction I want them to go. They can address their other needs later. I think their depth is fine at D-Line but I really think a starter would greatly improve them.

I'm a strong believer in building around the trenches, and would love to see them go OL and/or DL in the first 2 rounds. Based on NFL DraftScout current rankings there we may have a shot at some decent prospects: Johnathan Hankins (28), DJ Fluker (29), Kawann Short (42), Barrett Jones (51), Kyle Long (54), Dallas Thomas (56), among others.

Our positional cap cost on DL right now is extremely effective, with Wilfork being the only big salary, and he has been playing worth every penny:

DT Wilfork: 2013 cap hit $10.6M
DT Love: 2013 cap hit $1.1M
DT Deaderick: 2013 cap hit $640K
DT Forston: 2013 cap hit around $480K I think, but not confirmed
[DT Pryor: 2012 cap hit of $550K should carry over)
DE/DT Armstead: 2013 cap hit $405K
DE Jones: 2013 cap hit $1.86M
DE Ninkovich: 2013 cap hit $2.17M
DE Cunningham 2013 cap hit $960K
DE Francis: 2013 cap hit $482K
DE Bequette: 2013 cap hit $620K

With the cap hits for Forston and Pryor estimated, that should work out to a cap total of around slightly under $20M for an 11 person DL, representing roughly 20% of the 53 man roster. That DL would be significantly better than what the Pats had in 2012 based on the additions of Armstead, Pryor and Forston and the expected 2nd year improvement of Jones, Francis and Bequette. The only losses would be Travis Scott, who should be more than offset by Armstead, and Ron Brace, who did nothing. Any changes to this base personnel would likely represent upgrades in personnel, and probably not at significant additional cost.

 

[Joey007]

Here's what I think should be done defensively this year-

I think, in the first two rounds they should go with WR and DT, not in order, just wherever the best talent is avalible.

I don't even think we draft much in the secondary this year. I think we go after Ed Reed and resign Talib, Arrington, and also sign a vet FA CB for cheap to compete with Dowling for a spot. (FWIW, In the 3rd round I see us going after a RT since I think we'll let Vollmer walk.) I also see us signing a vet FA who can do well in coverage. (Might cost a little more, but DeAndre Levy would be a nice player on 3rd downs.)

But back to the pass rushing DT, that and a coverage LB is all that's in the way from the front 7 being complete. I think we have plenty of talent outside. Jones will only get better, Ninkovich is always solid, Armstead looks to have alot of potential, Francis looks like a diamond in the rough, and not to mention also having Cunningham and Bequette, who could show potential.

EDIT: Couldn't Armstead play at DT?? He is weighed at 300..

 

[Ring 6]

Compared to the AFCCG, they'll have "added" Armstead, Jones, and Fletcher by the time they play another game

Fletcher is an UDFA who has never yet proven he can play at a decent level in the NFL.
Armstead is a rookie who reports say was probably a 3rd round talent, same as Bequette, who gave us zero.
Jones started all year, and we still had a mediocre defense.

Ninkovich, Love, Deaderick, Cunningham are all guys that are heavily relied upon in this front 7, and I don't see how anyone of them would make you feel their role was in 'fine shape'. We don't even have a backup LB to speak of.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm a strong believer in building around the trenches, and would love to see them go OL and/or DL in the first 2 rounds. Based on NFL DraftScout current rankings there we may have a shot at some decent prospects: Johnathan Hankins (28), DJ Fluker (29), Kawann Short (42), Barrett Jones (51), Kyle Long (54), Dallas Thomas (56), among others.

Our positional cap cost on DL right now is extremely effective, with Wilfork being the only big salary, and he has been playing worth every penny:

DT Wilfork: 2013 cap hit $10.6M
DT Love: 2013 cap hit $1.1M
DT Deaderick: 2013 cap hit $640K
DT Forston: 2013 cap hit around $480K I think, but not confirmed
[DT Pryor: 2012 cap hit of $550K should carry over)
DE/DT Armstead: 2013 cap hit $405K
DE Jones: 2013 cap hit $1.86M
DE Ninkovich: 2013 cap hit $2.17M
DE Cunningham 2013 cap hit $960K
DE Francis: 2013 cap hit $482K
DE Bequette: 2013 cap hit $620K

With the cap hits for Forston and Pryor estimated, that should work out to a cap total of around slightly under $20M for an 11 person DL, representing roughly 20% of the 53 man roster. That DL would be significantly better than what the Pats had in 2012 based on the additions of Armstead, Pryor and Forston and the expected 2nd year improvement of Jones, Francis and Bequette. The only losses would be Travis Scott, who should be more than offset by Armstead, and Ron Brace, who did nothing. Any changes to this base personnel would likely represent upgrades in personnel, and probably not at significant additional cost.

Our DL plays like one we spent that kind of money on it.

 

[mayoclinic]

Our DL plays like one we spent that kind of money on it.

Our DL was very good most of the season. It wasn't very good in the AFCCG when Love was injured and Jones was barely playing and not effective. But I'm not sure that's a good basis for general statements. Last I saw, Armstead, Pryor, Forston and Fletcher didn't have any impact on the 2012 DLs performance. Realistically, rookies can be expected to improve, and injured guys generally play better when they aren't injured, so the AFCCG is probably a worst case scenario.

 

[Deus Irae]

They need a 3-4 DE. The LB corps is more built for the 3-4. We should be getting a coverage LB back in Fletcher and will probably pick one up either in FA, later in the draft, or through an undrafted FA.

I don't disagree with your take on the linebackers. I just don't know what the Patriots are planning re: 3-4 v. 4-3.

 

[Sciz]

What about Kevin Williams? Just throwing a name out there I have no idea what his contract situation is or what not or if Minnesota would even consider getting rid of him. But hes a veteran player who (at least was) a great pass rushing defensive tackle. I really like the idea of Glenn Dorsey if we can get him for the cheap because I really think hes built to be a 4-3 penetrating defensive tackle not a 2 gap 3-4 DE and could really explode here.

There was a report (from a guy who claimed to have seen the contract) that Williams was actually a free agent this offseason, but everybody other than him is saying that's not the case, so I don't know.

Even if he's not a free agent, then he's due $7.5M next season, which may be enough to get him cut if he refuses to take a pay cut.

 

[mgteich]

I would note that $2M a player is about average. That is what we have to spend for players not named Brady, considering that we also have the Practice Squad and an in-season reserve.

I'm a strong believer in building around the trenches, and would love to see them go OL and/or DL in the first 2 rounds. Based on NFL DraftScout current rankings there we may have a shot at some decent prospects: Johnathan Hankins (28), DJ Fluker (29), Kawann Short (42), Barrett Jones (51), Kyle Long (54), Dallas Thomas (56), among others.

Our positional cap cost on DL right now is extremely effective, with Wilfork being the only big salary, and he has been playing worth every penny:

DT Wilfork: 2013 cap hit $10.6M
DT Love: 2013 cap hit $1.1M
DT Deaderick: 2013 cap hit $640K
DT Forston: 2013 cap hit around $480K I think, but not confirmed
[DT Pryor: 2012 cap hit of $550K should carry over)
DE/DT Armstead: 2013 cap hit $405K
DE Jones: 2013 cap hit $1.86M
DE Ninkovich: 2013 cap hit $2.17M
DE Cunningham 2013 cap hit $960K
DE Francis: 2013 cap hit $482K
DE Bequette: 2013 cap hit $620K

With the cap hits for Forston and Pryor estimated, that should work out to a cap total of around slightly under $20M for an 11 person DL, representing roughly 20% of the 53 man roster. That DL would be significantly better than what the Pats had in 2012 based on the additions of Armstead, Pryor and Forston and the expected 2nd year improvement of Jones, Francis and Bequette. The only losses would be Travis Scott, who should be more than offset by Armstead, and Ron Brace, who did nothing. Any changes to this base personnel would likely represent upgrades in personnel, and probably not at significant additional cost.

 

[Kontradiction]

I don't disagree with your take on the linebackers. I just don't know what the Patriots are planning re: 3-4 v. 4-3.

I think the last few seasons will tell you that they're planning on lining up mostly in sub-packages. My comment was directed toward the base defense and what it looks like they should do.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The Pats need another quality DE/OLB who can rush the passer before I'd consider them fine in the front 7. A linebacker who covers well without being completely useless against the run is probably needed, too. This is assuming that Armstead contributes this season. If not, there is a need at 4-3 DT/3-4 DE. Didn't see enough out of Love or Deaderick to be convinced that either is the solution. The best that you can say about either one of them is that they aren't a clear weak link.

 

[patsfaninpa]

We also need an olb who can play in space and cover. A very big need. On the defensive front, I'm also hopeful Armstead can play inside at dt. A dt who can get upfield is a big need too. I think we need an end to get after the passer. Our front is far from a finished prospect.


I don't think this will happen. But, if we keep Welker, Talib and Vollmers. My priorities in order would be; de, wr, olb and strong safety.

 

[Ring 6]

Our DL was very good most of the season. It wasn't very good in the AFCCG when Love was injured and Jones was barely playing and not effective. But I'm not sure that's a good basis for general statements. Last I saw, Armstead, Pryor, Forston and Fletcher didn't have any impact on the 2012 DLs performance. Realistically, rookies can be expected to improve, and injured guys generally play better when they aren't injured, so the AFCCG is probably a worst case scenario.

Not really. We struggle to rush the passer all season long. No one on the entire DL was better than average, if even average as a pass rusher, other than Jones, for part of the season.

Armstead is a rookie who reportedly would have been a 3rd round pick, and we know what we got from Bequette, so I'm not holding my breath that he is a savior.
Pryor, really? How about Shawn Crable?
Forston is a UDFA who couldn't stick on the 53.
Fletcher hasn't shwon he can be a viable quality LB yet.

I don't feel better after your response.