Defensive Front Seven - A Strength?

[mgteich]

In terms of stopping short yardage plays, the D was poor. The question is why? Personnel? Scheme? Being conservative (not allowing the play action)? At any rate, there is room for improvement.

For some, our run defense was so good in the last half of the year that we can lose Wilfork and still be a top run defense.

I agree with you that the 2014 short yardage defense needed some improvement, and that replacing Wilfork with Easley will not be a major step in improving the run defense.

We finished with Wilfork, Branch, Siliga, Jones and Vellano

We will will have Easley instead of Wilfork.

Personally, I don't see the improvement in the run defense, especially the short yardage run defense.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I would note that many of the "top 32" do NOT have first round grades, so choosing one of them at 32 would be a slight reach.

It gets so confusing. Some draft sites say there are 26 players with 1st round grades. Some say 15. Teh consensus does seem that 32 players do not have 1st round grades.

I agree that we might indeed reach a bit and draft one of the corners or DT's. To get value, Belichick might move up or down. or even stay, given the need. There are lots of corners who will likely be draft in the first two rounds.

Yea. What MIGHT happen is if BB sees such sizable gap between the player's grade and the draft pick's slot- but thinks he can STILL get the player he'll trade out. However, to your point being a "reach" is in the eye of the beholder. Tavon Wilson- BB,No. Everyone else- Yes.

I am not as confident with regard to finding a DT after 32 who will be better than our four incumbents for 2015. We do need a DT for the future.

I agree. I'd like to see more athleticism in the DT slot. Not sure who will be there. Some players seem like good fits. Some dont.

Perhaps we can find one corner that can contribute some in his rookie year as an outside corner (we are set at nickel with Arrington and McClain). I suspect that none of the draftees will be a better choice in his rookie year than what we have in Butler, Dennard, Ryan and Fletcher.

IMO they'll need to grab one of the top 3 CBs on the board to have a shot at being a key contributor in 2015. The wild card for me is what kind of CB are they going for. One that excels in man or zone? Both?

 

[RobertWeathers]

For some, our run defense was so good in the last half of the year that we can lose Wilfork and still be a top run defense.

I agree with you that the 2014 short yardage defense needed some improvement, and that replacing Wilfork with Easley will not be a major step in improving the run defense.

We finished with Wilfork, Branch, Siliga, Jones and Vellano

We will will have Easley instead of Wilfork.

Personally, I don't see the improvement in the run defense, especially the short yardage run defense.

Well, Sheard is good vs the run and getting Mayo back will also help. However in the interior, Branch and Siliga are the only fatties that have good feet. They'll need one more.

 

[mgteich]

It gets so confusing. Some draft sites say there are 26 players with 1st round grades. Some say 15. Teh consensus does seem that 32 players do not have 1st round grades.



Yea. What MIGHT happen is if BB sees such sizable gap between the player's grade and the draft pick's slot- but thinks he can STILL get the player he'll trade out. However, to your point being a "reach" is in the eye of the beholder. Tavon Wilson- BB,No. Everyone else- Yes.



I agree. I'd like to see more athleticism in the DT slot. Not sure who will be there. Some players seem like good fits. Some dont.



IMO they'll need to grab one of the top 3 CBs on the board to have a shot at being a key contributor in 2015. The wild card for me is what kind of CB are they going for. One that excels in man or zone? Both?

I agree with your analysis.

Tavon Wilson was a desperate reach, then and in retrospect. Our need was so great that Belichick made the pick. He took a shot. The perceived choices at safety were very poor indeed. We can choose to believe that Wilson was graded that highly by Belichick. Personally, I think that the talent was thin and the need was great, and Belichick chose to use a 2nd on a long-shot. Wilson did pretty well for a 5th round rookie, and has contributed since as a backup and special teamer. Had he been picked in the 5th, he would have been a good pick. IMHO, Wilson has been a contributor.

 

[VrabelJr]

The way this draft class is shaping up BPA might be WR. So many good ones... RB too

Great call on the WR. I think you're right.

 

[VrabelJr]

I do not see a high pick on a DT.
I think we are going with Siliga,Branch,Easley,Jones and whoever

I agree. Especially if the need at DT is a fatty. They can be had in the 3rd/4th rounds. Look at guys like Josh Chapman, Jonathan Hankins (2nd round), Brandon Williams, etc.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I agree with your analysis.

Tavon Wilson was a desperate reach, then and in retrospect. Our need was so great that Belichick made the pick. He took a shot. The perceived choices at safety were very poor indeed. We can choose to believe that Wilson was graded that highly by Belichick. Personally, I think that the talent was thin and the need was great, and Belichick chose to use a 2nd on a long-shot. Wilson did pretty well for a 5th round rookie, and has contributed since as a backup and special teamer. Had he been picked in the 5th, he would have been a good pick. IMHO, Wilson has been a contributor.

Agreed on Wilson. Choosing him in the 2nd round did seem like a reach but according to this article, it wasn't like he was alone in thinking the kid could play. The question is, was someone else thinking of taking him in the 2nd rd? Who knows?

But others might look closer and learn that Wilson had seven teams that brought him in for visits (Buccaneers, Texans, Cardinals, Falcons, Colts, Ravens, Chargers), while Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio and director of college scouting Jon Robinson -- along with another club -- worked him out privately.

So while draft analysts might have missed the mark on Wilson, it's not like other teams in the league were sleeping on him and the positive traits that made him a desirable prospect. In recent weeks Wilson was a "travel guy" in scouting circles, the player who has a high volume of visits as clubs attempt to gather more information on him before setting their draft board.

http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/7865727/tavon-wilson-reach-round-2-not-bill-belichick

 

[carmelo15]

This is from one of my sources, but I'm hearing Leonard Williams is gonna hit a Pre-Draft Fall and might be available at 32. Just passing along info. And my source is located around the team...works at the McDonald's on North St. TIFWIW

Your source is Good enough for espn you should apply

 

[hornetfb85]

My source is the first cousin of Manish Mehta's main inside source that works at the Wash n' Go in East Rutherford.

 

[Ring 6]

I also though that overall the run D was good. They had some challenges early. As you say, Siliga was out, Casey Walker was in. Branch was new. Easley was in/out. Chris Jones missed the MIA game. Losing Mayo was a blow. Playing Chandler Jones in the NASCAR vs MIA week 1 was moronic. No question that they were better at the end of the year than the beginning.

In terms of stopping short yardage plays, the D was poor. The question is why? Personnel? Scheme? Being conservative (not allowing the play action)? At any rate, there is room for improvement.

See I don't think they were poor. As I posted, over the second half of the season they were the 2nd best run D in the NFL by all measures and the best Patriot run D in many years. They allowed only 30 first downs rushing in the second half of the season, that is less than 4 a game. They allowed 2 rushing TDs in the last 8 games. Where are you getting that they were poor in short yardage?

 

[RobertWeathers]

See I don't think they were poor. As I posted, over the second half of the season they were the 2nd best run D in the NFL by all measures and the best Patriot run D in many years. They allowed only 30 first downs rushing in the second half of the season, that is less than 4 a game. They allowed 2 rushing TDs in the last 8 games. Where are you getting that they were poor in short yardage?

I know. This is why those numbers are surprising. I think the run D was good too. I don't know what to make of the short yardage metrics.

The article was from December. It lacks context and most likely includes numbers from Sept,Oct and early Nov when the run D was a bit shaky.

Looking at the defensive side, the Patriots rank 28th while allowing 69.4% of teams to convert in short yardage- and they rank 30th in conversion rate against rushing plays, with 77.8% converting into a successful play. The Patriots are surrounded by the Titans,Buccaneers, Texans, and the Panthers. That's not good company.

This other nugget was from an article from a cut-n-paste from Football Outsiders

On the runs where the interior line should matter the most, however, the Patriots were the worst team in the NFL. They ranked dead last in power success, stopping opposing teams in important short-yardage situations just five out of 27 times (19 percent). Across all third-and-short situations (1 to 2 yards to go), the Patriots ranked last in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).

http://www.patspulpit.com/2014/12/1...t-in-short-yardage-situations-28th-on-defense

 

[PlainOldEd]

Would anybody be upset if bb took Carl Davis at 32?

With the 32nd pick in the 2015 NFL draft the New England Patriots select Nick O'Leary TE, FL state.....

 

[ashley]

Anyone who thinks our run defense was great last year should pull out the Raven playoff game where Forsett ran crazy against us. I also think of the Jet game as well.
With us losing our best DT and all our returning guys coming off injuries, I think the DT position is one where we need to address early.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Anyone who thinks our run defense was great last year should pull out the Raven playoff game where Forsett ran crazy against us. I also think of the Jet game as well.
With us losing our best DT and all our returning guys coming off injuries, I think the DT position is one where we need to address early.

Agreed. Plenty of good DT pass rushers in the draft. pm me

 

[rookBoston]

Agreed. Plenty of good DT pass rushers in the draft. pm me

No lets be clear we got the pass rushing DT last year. 2015 is the year for the 325# monster than closes all the interior running lanes.

 

[Concussion Protocol]

Anyone who thinks our run defense was great last year should pull out the Raven playoff game where Forsett ran crazy against us. I also think of the Jet game as well.
With us losing our best DT and all our returning guys coming off injuries, I think the DT position is one where we need to address early.

Forsett averaged 5.4 YPC in that game. That was also his exact YPC for the season. He had a sneaky ridiculous season last year, probably due to that big OL they have. While it seemed like the Pats got run over in that game, they were actually holding their own against a great rushing attack. I think the early-season performances were much more concerning (@Mia, @KC, NYJ). Things seemed to settle down in the second half of the season.

 

[Ring 6]

Forsett averaged 5.4 YPC in that game. That was also his exact YPC for the season. He had a sneaky ridiculous season last year, probably due to that big OL they have. While it seemed like the Pats got run over in that game, they were actually holding their own against a great rushing attack. I think the early-season performances were much more concerning (@Mia, @KC, NYJ). Things seemed to settle down in the second half of the season.

Again over the second half of the season, the Patriots were the 2nd best run D in the NFL, pretty much by any measure. Amazingly they did this playing out of nickel 75-80% of the time.
You could argue that it was all due to Wilfork, but my eyes said that Siliga and Branch played just as well. The questions for me are:
1) Branch's durability. I assumed he reps were kept down because he had no camp or early season and was not in great shape.
2) Where does Easley fit in.
I am fine with Siliga and Branch on early downs, and anything Easley can add to that would be great. I am fine with a front 4 of Nink, Sheard, Easley, Jones in passing situations.

 

[mayoclinic]

Again over the second half of the season, the Patriots were the 2nd best run D in the NFL, pretty much by any measure. Amazingly they did this playing out of nickel 75-80% of the time.

I think this is very important. If the Pats can stop the run effectively while playing in sub, it will be quite a feat.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I don't understand.

One of our most serious 2014 defensive weakness was defensive against the run, especially in short yardage situations. We've lost Wilfork, who played OK in that role (well enough to be a $4M a year NT). How is that we don't need a top level DT?

A lot of that was due to mayo being out,

 

[patsinthesnow]

Siliga 5.5 sacks in 12 games played for us, along with streaks of solid run stuffing in him. Will be just 25 next season too.
He's a breakout candidate IMO.

Sheard may honestly be an upgrade over Chandler, and at worst a heck of a 3rd rotational DE.

LBs are studs.

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Front seven has a chance to be awesome if Easley comes to play as a starting DT. Even if he doesn't, Siliga-Branch would be a solid unit. A rookie could make an impact there as well.