Defensive backs rookie year into second year development

[Brady6]

This preseason Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon were much lower on the depth chart than I think most of us envisioned. I am hopeful that this was just a misconception due to Belichick and his staff trying to evaluate other players and it was not an indication of what to expect from these players in 2014.

Logan Ryan showed a lot of promise as a rookie, leading the team in interceptions and seeing quality snaps down the stretch at all 3 CB positions. Duron Harmon was solid in his rookie season, acting as the teams #3 safety he started a few games and performed well in all of them. What gives, what is the reason they are playing deep into the second half of preseason games, and riding the pine with an UDFA like Butler starting at CB opposite Revis? I know that people are enamored with Butler, but I would expect that Ryan would be even better and considering how Ryan performed as a rookie if he improved upon that it would be hard for a first round rookie to play ahead of him never mind an UDFA. Harmon I would have expected to start, not Pat Chung or Tavon Wilson.

This is not the first time a Patriots defensive back has regressed; Tavon Wilson played nearly 50% of the snaps as a rookie and followed that up with 18 defensive snaps last season, many felt Dennard did not improve and even was slightly worse in his second season. We all know the struggles McCourty had his second season, and in years past players like Butler also took dramatic steps back.

What do you all think the problem is? Should Belichick consider making changes with the secondary coaches, are the expectations to low or too high in year 2? Thoughts?

 

[mgteich]

THOUGHTS
You have a much higher opinion of the likelihood of the success of Belichick's draftees at defensive back that most on this board.

 

[hwc]

This preseason Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon were much lower on the depth chart than I think most of us envisioned.

Really? Here's the Patriots current depth chart:

http://www.patriots.com/schedule-and-stats/depth-chart.html

Logan Ryan is listed as the 2nd team back up to Revis. Harmon is listed as the first team safety. Seems pretty high on the depth chart to me, especially with the kind of depth the Pats have in the secondary. Where did you envision them?

 

[Stu Pidassle]

I know that people are enamored with Butler, but I would expect that Ryan would be even better and considering how Ryan performed as a rookie if he improved upon that it would be hard for a first round rookie to play ahead of him never mind an UDFA. Thoughts?

To my eyes it is more that Butler has performed very well as opposed to Ryan not doing the job. At the end of the day it doesn't matter they will all play before the season is over. I can't remember every being this excited about the db depth.

 

[Brady6]

Really? Here's the Patriots current depth chart:

http://www.patriots.com/schedule-and-stats/depth-chart.html

Logan Ryan is listed as the 2nd team back up to Revis. Harmon is listed as the first team safety. Seems pretty high on the depth chart to me, especially with the kind of depth the Pats have in the secondary. Where did you envision them?

Do you watch football games? I mean did you just post an unofficial depth chart as you way to discredit my post, wow, and then you started it with “Really” as if you were actually providing something worthwhile.

Answer these questions for me:

1. How many preseason games did Danny Amendola start?
2. When did Aaron Dobson start backing up Julian Edelman?
3. How often did we start with 2WR, 2RB, and 1TE with the 2RB being Vereen and Ridley at the same time?
4. How many games did Dennard start in the preseason?
5. How many games did Duron Harmon start in the preseason?
6. Did we run a 4-3 defense in the preseason? We have a 4-3 depth chart.

Listen you might sincerely mean well but if you are going to quote my posts please do not waste my time with this utter and complete nonsense. You can be a homer without being blind.

 

[Brady6]

THOUGHTS
You have a much higher opinion of the likelihood of the success of Belichick's draftees at defensive back that most on this board.

Logan Ryan allowed a 48% completion percentage against and 49.8 QB rating against last season as a rookie, the QB rating against was best on the team. I expect that when you have a player perform at that level Ryan did, that he improves entering his second season and he is not entering the game as the #5 or #6 CB playing with a bunch of future roster cuts.

The problem is not with who Belichick drafts the problem is with their development, when players go backwards year 1 to year 2 that is an indication of poor coaching, not poor drafting.

 

[Oswlek]

THOUGHTS
You have a much higher opinion of the likelihood of the success of Belichick's draftees at defensive back that most on this board.

Not sure how this applies to the topic at hand.

 

[hwc]

Listen you might sincerely mean well but if you are going to quote my posts please do not waste my time with this utter and complete nonsense. You can be a homer without being blind.

Listen. Instead of wasting my time on your rants, I think I'll I just put you on ignore....

See ya....

 

[Brady6]

Listen. Instead of wasting my time on your rants, I think I'll I just put you on ignore....

See ya....

I find posters like you to be so impossible, anything that does not include praise is a rant you in your opinions. That lack of objectiveness makes it impossible for me to find anything you post creditable because it will not recognize anything that does not portray a positive. I am as big a fan of the Patriots as anyone on this board, a bigger one than I would say the majority, but I talk about the good, the bad, and everything in between. I do this because I am smart enough to realize that if the Patriots did everything right we would go 19-0 most seasons.

You can put me on ignore if you want, or you have a realistic and educated discussion, but do not refer to the things I post as rants because you lack the capacity or willingness to discuss them.

Have a good night pal.. .

 

[mgteich]

Not sure how this applies to the topic at hand.

Of course, Brady6's evaluation of defensive talent is relevant.

Brady6 would fire the backfield coaches because Ryan, Wilson, and Harmon may not have developed fast enough. That PRESUMES that there is talent to develop. We might at least consider giving some of the "blame" for underdevelopment of defensive backs to the possibility that better talent would have helped at least as much as better coaching.

I would note that the team was a top 10 defensive team with Gregory at safety, Arrington at nickel and Cole at #5 corner. All three players are considered terrible by many, if not most of this board.

Personally, I think that the coaching staff is doing find with what they have to work with.

As some have pointed out several times, a better talent at safety sometime within the last three years would have helped a lot. As it was, the staff did fine with someone most consider a JAG; Gregory.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Logan Ryan allowed a 48% completion percentage against and 49.8 QB rating against last season as a rookie, the QB rating against was best on the team. I expect that when you have a player perform at that level Ryan did, that he improves entering his second season and he is not entering the game as the #5 or #6 CB playing with a bunch of future roster cuts.

The problem is not with who Belichick drafts the problem is with their development, when players go backwards year 1 to year 2 that is an indication of poor coaching, not poor drafting.

I don't think those stats are very useful when comparing guys on the same team, since they're drawing different assignments and covering different guys. More useful comparing CB1s vs. CB1s, and even then require a ton of context.

In any case, Ryan seemed like he had good instincts and good hands last year. He flat-out surpassed Kyle Arrington in just about every way, and that's a good thing. I like him for what he is, and I don't think it's being a pessimist to just acknowledge that he's not a standout athlete. He has average size, he's a little slow for the position, and it seems like he's pretty much restricted to playing zone since he's susceptible to getting burned in man coverage. Again, pretty much a rich man's Kyle Arrington, right down to the one year of inflated interception total that made people think he's better than he is. That was exactly what his scouting report said coming out of Rutgers, and both for better and for worse, the scouting reports were basically right so far.

He's a fine player, and can work well on a team that plays a lot of zone and/or has man corners ahead of him on the depth chart. But when he was drafted I thought they were moving him to safety, and IMO he just isn't an ideal fit for the type of system that the Pats seem to want to run. Belichick's a genius, so he'll scheme around that and find ways to use Ryan's talent, but I think people are projecting a bit much out of him based on his interception total from last year.

On the upside, relative to the rest of the corners in the league he might actually benefit from the new rules emphasis, since he isn't a particularly physical corner anyway.

 

[Brady6]

Of course, Brady6's evaluation of defensive talent is relevant.

Brady6 would fire the backfield coaches because Ryan, Wilson, and Harmon may not have developed fast enough. That PRESUMES that there is talent to develop. We might at least consider giving some of the "blame" for underdevelopment of defensive backs to the possibility that better talent would have helped at least as much as better coaching.

I am not sure when I said I would fire the coaches, I asked the question there is a major difference between posing a question and asserting that you would do something. For some reason you consistently overlook that difference and see what you want to see in posts.

As far as talent goes, if a player is productive as a rookie and then returns for his second season, is not any better, and has actually regressed, that is not an indication of lack of talent, that is an indication of poor coaching and development by the staff. Logan Ryan was the #3 CB and Duron Harmon was the #3 safety last season, they should be better in year 2, not worse, and if they are not that responsibility, falls on the coaching staff in my opinion. For Tavon Wilson to play in 16 games have 41 tackles, 4 interceptions, 6 pass defensed, and 2 fumble recoveries as a rookie only to show up for year 2 and play 18 defensive snaps, that is a problem, because he has shown the talent to make plays in the NFL.

I would note that the team was a top 10 defensive team with Gregory at safety, Arrington at nickel and Cole at #5 corner. All three players are considered terrible by many, if not most of this board.

Personally, I think that the coaching staff is doing find with what they have to work with.

As some have pointed out several times, a better talent at safety sometime within the last three years would have helped a lot. As it was, the staff did fine with someone most consider a JAG; Gregory.

This does not have anything to do with the development of our players. You are trying to shift the focus somewhere else, this is not a question of does are secondary do a good job, it is a question of why are second year DBs show up as worse players than they were as rookies.

They also have plenty to work with the secondary consists of 6 players selected in the first 3 rounds of the draft.

 

[Rob0729]

The Pats haven't played a single snap of regular season football and we are already declaring that both Ryan and Harmon have regressed? People put too much stock in the preseason. We have no idea what Belichick was trying to achieve in the preseason and whether what we saw is what will be what we will see in the regular season.

Why not give the second year DBs a chance to show whether they regressed or not before we opine why they have regressed in their second season?

 

[Ring 6]

Dennard did not regress from year 1 to year 2.
Harmon may start
Ryan may start and if not he is right where he was last year behind revis/Talib and Dennard and maybe or maybe not Arrington.
As stayed let's let them at least play the first game before declaring them declined.
Fail thread.

 

[patsfan-1982]

like rob said we have to wait and see them play at lest one game before we say they regressed, I will say this about the pats they get the most out of there rookies we see BB throw late round pick in as injury fill in and they play good but the next season we think that kid is going to be a star and when that does not happen we call for BB's head lol.

 

[patfanken]

Ryan and Harmon are solid, productive DB's in a league where the more solid, productive DB's yous have the better your defense will be. People are way too wrapped up in PERCEIVED notions of what the real coaches are trying to do during preseason.

The important thing for Harmon is Reps and he got a lot of them, even if they were with 3rd stringers a lot of the time. While most here are concerned about the "other safety" I'm not I think Chung has done a nice job, and Wilson had definitely upped his game. We've been seeing a lot of guys being shuffled in and out in that slot, because we have a number of decent choices to play it.

Too many people are disappointed we don't have some wildly gifted athlete with tremendous size and speed playing the position. Well we are VERY lucky to have one of those guys playing one side of the field, and we can be a very good defense "merely" having a a decent guy playing opposite him.

BradyFTW,was pretty much on the mark with his post. Both Harmon and Ryan came into the league with both skills and limitations. And as Rob mentioned neither has played a snap yet in their 2nd year.

 

[mgteich]

Let us consider your logic. We carry four corners (not include our nickel back which is a separate issue)

CORNER - NOTES
Ryan was the #3 corner last year behind everyone but Cole. Now, if he is not the #2 corner, the defensive coaches have somehow failed. Also, this it is not an issue of talent.

1) Dennard was better than Ryan last year. Why is it a coaching failure if Dennard is still better than Ryan?

2) Is it a failure if Ryan is not better than Revis?

3) Belichick brought in Browner and Butler. Belichick cannot be right. If one of these players is better than Ryan this year, then they failed in their development of Ryan.

4) Dennard started last year. If he doesn't start, then the coaches failed because somehow he regressed. Perhaps, just perhaps, Belichick SUCCEEDED in upgrading the roster in bring in Browner. If not, then we are where we were last year. Also, it is possible that Butler was a great find and a great talent, as Dennard was last year. How is it a failure to secure a better player.

CORNER - CONCLUSIONS
Personally, I HOPE that Ryan is our #4 corner. I expect that both Revis and Browner are better TALENTS than Ryan. I also expect Dennard to continue to better than Ryan. And if Ryan starts over Browner and Dennard, is this a success? Some would say that the coaches failed with Dennard and wasted resources in his acquisition of Browner and Butler.

It makes no sense to evaluate coaches (and players) on where they are on the depth chart.

And just BTW, the team's coaches didn't fail because Ryan isn't where Brady6 expected him to be on the death chart to start his second season.

So, NO, I would not be disappointed if Ryan isn't one of our top three corners this year. In fact, I don't expect him to be one of the top three.

========================

SAFETIES - NOTES

1) So, for you the patriots have NOT had a lack of talent in those that Belichick drafted? WOW! Most of us acknowledge that belichick has had problems acquiring talent at safety. Some believe that Belichick has done well in filling the holes, but no one (except perhaps you) doubts that this is an issue for the team.

2) Harmon was the #3 safety last year. And therefore, he should be the #2 safety this year or the coaches have failed? There is little logic in this statement. The failure, if there is one, is clearly on the Front Office for not securing better help than Chung.

3) Harmon was not regarding highly by anyone but the coaching staff when he was drafted (and by those of us who support all patriot choices no matter how poor). YOU believe (or have believed) that Wilson has developed well enough to start. Your conclusion is that the staff failed in developing Harmon. Perhaps, they succeeded in developing Wilson.

SAFETY - CONCLUSIONS

We don't have a clue whether Harmon will start, be the #3, or worse. IMHO, this is a reflection on his talent.

Presuming that one of our SIX safeties actually starts at S2 and we get little production from that position, the issue is lack of talent.
================================
BOTTOM LINE - ONE
When we draft a relatively low talent player, we should not expect him to move up on the depth chart each year. PERHAPS, just perhaps, the team will acquire a better or equal talent to compete with him.

BOTTOM LINE - TWO
It cannot be a failure if Ryan has not moved up to be higher than Dennard and Browner this year.

QUOTE="Brady6, post: 3895632, member: 32717"]I am not sure when I said I would fire the coaches, I asked the question there is a major difference between posing a question and asserting that you would do something. For some reason you consistently overlook that difference and see what you want to see in posts.

As far as talent goes, if a player is productive as a rookie and then returns for his second season, is not any better, and has actually regressed, that is not an indication of lack of talent, that is an indication of poor coaching and development by the staff. Logan Ryan was the #3 CB and Duron Harmon was the #3 safety last season, they should be better in year 2, not worse, and if they are not that responsibility, falls on the coaching staff in my opinion. For Tavon Wilson to play in 16 games have 41 tackles, 4 interceptions, 6 pass defensed, and 2 fumble recoveries as a rookie only to show up for year 2 and play 18 defensive snaps, that is a problem, because he has shown the talent to make plays in the NFL.


This does not have anything to do with the development of our players. You are trying to shift the focus somewhere else, this is not a question of does are secondary do a good job, it is a question of why are second year DBs show up as worse players than they were as rookies.

They also have plenty to work with the secondary consists of 6 players selected in the first 3 rounds of the draft.[/QUOTE]

 

[Oswlek]

Of course, Brady6's evaluation of defensive talent is relevant.

Brady6 would fire the backfield coaches because Ryan, Wilson, and Harmon may not have developed fast enough. That PRESUMES that there is talent to develop. We might at least consider giving some of the "blame" for underdevelopment of defensive backs to the possibility that better talent would have helped at least as much as better coaching.

I would note that the team was a top 10 defensive team with Gregory at safety, Arrington at nickel and Cole at #5 corner. All three players are considered terrible by many, if not most of this board.

Personally, I think that the coaching staff is doing find with what they have to work with.

As some have pointed out several times, a better talent at safety sometime within the last three years would have helped a lot. As it was, the staff did fine with someone most consider a JAG; Gregory.

Getting a pro-bowl selection as a rookie would imply NFL talent, no? Or getting 4 or 5 picks?

It isn't like Brady6 is basing this on college tape, McCourty, Butler and Wilson all dropped off a cliff in their second seasons after at least appearing NFL roster worthy. Clearly something is happening, though I wouldn't be so quick as to blame the coaches. If you are going to go that route, you have to be willing to go all the way to the top.

It isn't a certainty that Harmon or Ryan are going to struggle this year, and I'd also contest whether Ryan is farther down on the depth chart than anyone expected. But it isn't a completely baseless question.

 

[mgteich]

One question is whether these players are starter level talents. Either or both may start today, or not.
Either could be #4 on the depth charts of their position today, or not.

When you say these players are solid, I presume that you mean that they are good enough to be productive as part of a top 10, or even top 5 defense. Is that what you mean?

Ryan and Harmon are solid, productive DB's in a league where the more solid, productive DB's yous have the better your defense will be.

 

[DarrylS]

In my effort to uncomplicate things perhaps it is as simple as Revis and Browner caused the D backfield change the depth chart... Malcolm Butler was not a bad find either.

Devon McCourty developed into a very good safety...

My eyeball test tells me that most of these players on this team have "progressed" over time and if they did not BB would make some changes...