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DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by carolinatony, Dec 19, 2009.

  1. carolinatony

    carolinatony In the Starting Line-Up

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    He's 6-6 and 260 pounds, would he be a possible good fit for us?
    Sounds like a Peppers type player.


    from the Jason Pierre-Paul, USF’s Version of the Freak | The Bull Gator

    We can compare tough. We can make claims about the next Freak or current freakish abilities. And if we do so, we must include USF defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. Pierre-Paul does standing back flips in full pads despite being 6’6”. He terrorizes anyone willing to line up in the opposing team’s backfield. He forced FSU to double-team him on occasion over two-time All-American George Selvie. He was named the Big East Defensive Player of the Week in only his fourth game. And he is only going to get better.
     
  2. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We had a thread on him earlier this season where he was discussed in detail:

    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/285619-jason-pierre-paul.html

    Physically, JPP is a freak. 6'6", 260-265#, 4.6 speed, 81" wingspan. He's a JUCO transfer with only 1 year of experience at USF. His build and game are reminiscent of a young Javon Kearse more than anyone else, and his game is somewhat reminiscent of former Georgia Tech prospect (and current Bengals DE) Michael Johnson. He has the speed to run down players from across the field, and his huge wingspan wreak's havoc in the passing lanes. He has certainly outshone teammate George Selvie this season, and had some big games earlier in the year. Kiper and McShay have been playing him up, and the rumors are that he will declare this year, and will probably be a 1st round pick.

    The limited film that I've seen of him so far is disappointing. He doesn't play anywhere near what his timed speed would suggest. He is kind of gangly and awkward, and seems almost uncomfortable with his frame. Technically he's very raw. His production this year has been ok, but not great given his physical skills and Selvie on the other side. I'm not sure he's strong enough to set the edge compared with someone like Pitt's Greg Romeus. JP has terrific linear speed, but I'm not sure he has the lateral mobility and agility to play in space.

    JPP may have more upside than any other DE/OLB prospect in this draft, including Carlos Dunlap, but he's very raw and probably should stay in school another year. If he does come out someone will probably take him 1st round based on his physical tools and upside (this year's Aaron Maybin), but I personally wouldn't take him before the mid-late 2nd round at the earliest.

    For someone with freakish physical tools I prefer Austen Lane from Division I-AA Murray State, who has some off the charts numbers (6.7 3-cone and 4.07 20 yard shuttle, which are in DeMarcus Ware territory) and a non-stop motor. He's played in space, including coverage on RBs and TEs. NEPatriot recently interviewed him:

    NFL Draft Prospect Interview: Austen Lane, DE

    The big knock on Lane is that he hasn't played against top competition, but JPP has only one year of Division I experience.

    Again, Pierre-Paul is incredibly talented with huge upside, but right now I think he's just too raw and looks more like a DE than an OLB. I'd take a risk on him if he slips to the late 2nd/early 3rd round, but I think he has too many question marks to be a 1st round option for the Pats.
     
  3. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    FYI, here's 2 mocks having the Pats taking Pierre-Paul with our 1st round pick:

    1. NFLdraftblitz has the Pats taking JPP at #25, noting: "Now that rumors are swirling that Pierre-Paul could enter this draft, he automatically gets us thinking of him as a Mike Vrabel-type prospect who could excel in a 3-4 hybrid scheme. Those who watched film of George Selvie were treated to a fine showing by his pass-rushing partner and inched him up their boards."

    NFL Draft Blitz - 2010 Mock Draft

    2. NFLdraftdog also has the Pats taking JPP at #25, noting: "A perfect fit in the system, at 6' 6" 257, he is a supreme pass rusher and has the ability to drop back into coverage. This season, Pierre-Paul recorded 14.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks. If Texas safety Early Thomas (eligible sophomore) enters the draft early, look for him to go off the board here."

    2010 NFL Mock Draft

    The fact that they think we could take a safety #1 may indicate a lack of familiarity with the Pats' needs.

    I think JPP will come out, and will go #1 somewhere. There's lots of time to see whether he actually is a good 3-4 OLB candidate. I'm not against him if he really has the whole package, but I'm skeptical right now that he's anywhere near ready.
     
  4. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    I agree the film on JPP is not flattering, but there is a ton of raw material to work with. He reminds me of the kid from Hawaii a few years ago with the three names and Barwin as well from last year. Yet BB passed on them as well.

    I like Lane and I think he would make a great 3-4 OLB in our defense. BB could take him and let him play ST a year while the kid gets a lot stronger and learns the position. With his motor and a ton of coaching and a ton of work with technique, he could work out to be a legitimate playmaker in a year or two.
     
  5. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    That's great and all, but it doesn't help the pass rush in 2010. [I'm not saying that the Patriots should forget about Pierre-Paul altogether, merely that it doesn't sound like he can be "the answer."]
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2009
  6. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    I think if you look carefully at this draft, there is NO 3-4 OLB candidate that can help 2010's pass rush. I still think BB digs up a veteran retread and plugs that guy in for 2010.

    The biggest question remains, will BB invest in a developmental prospect for 2010,who could start and contribute in 2011 or 2012, while contributing on ST in 2010?
     
  7. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There's no quick "answer".

    Here's the problem: you have to start a pipeline somewhere, and you can't expect instantaneous results. It's not reasonable to expect a rookie to come in and instantaneously produce on a high level, at any position.

    Sure, Brian Orapko has 11 sacks and Clay Matthews 8, but those are exceptions. Aaron Maybin (#11) and Robert Ayers (#18) have 0 combined sacks. Connor Barwin (#46) has 2.5 as a sub, which is quite decent given how much he's played. Everette Brown (#43), considered by many the most polished pass rusher in the draft and considered a top-15 pick this time a year ago, has 1.5. Clint Sintim (#45), considered the most "ready" conversion because of his experience in the 3-4 at Virginia, has 1 sack. Some of those guys may turn out to be "busts", but it's way too early to label any of them a bust at this time. Some rookies just take longer to develop than others.

    Pittsburgh didn't draft LaMarr Woodley (#45) in 2007 with the need to plug him in immediately. He did relatively little his rookie year, learned the system, then moved into the starting lineup in 2008 and exploded. Philadelphia took Trent Cole in the 5th round in 2005 and worked him into the lineup slowly, then let him loose as a starter his 2nd year. He's produced 39 sacks in less than 4 years as a starter. There are guys who've produced immediately (Jared Allen had 9 sacks as a rookie, taken in the 4th round in 2004; Elvis Dumervil had 8 sacks, taken in the 4th round in 2006) but again, they're the exceptions, and you can't really count on that kind of rookie production.

    We could have drafted Connor Barwin, Clint Sintim or Everette Brown last year at #40 instead of Ron Brace and given them a year to develop. Then they should have been ready to step in in 2010. Instead we have nothing. The odds are that Jason Pierre-Paul, Greg Romeus, and Austen Lane won't do a whole lot as rookies. But if we had drafted Barwin/Sintim/Brown then we wouldn't need to depend on a rookie, and we could take another one and give him a year to develop. Then we'd have a pipeline.

    We should have started our pipeline in 2004-2005, at the latest. We're 5 years too late. In the past 4 drafts we've passed up Manny Lawson, Mathias Kiwanuka, Elvis Dumervil, Ray Edwards, Mark Anderson, LaMarr Woodley, Quentin Moses, Brian Robison, Quentin Groves, William Hayes, and all of guys from last year, among others.

    William Hayes is a great example. 6'3" 265# high motor kid form Winston-Salem St. who ran a 4.59 40, and played both DE and OLB in school. Tennessee traded up to take him #103 in the 4th round in 2008, and he's now a starter and doing well. We took Kevin O'Connell at 94, and cut him in TC.

    We blew our chance to establish a pipeline. We could have Connor Barwin ready to step in next year, and then take Austen Lane in the second round this year. Or we could have traded up for Quentin Groves in 2008 (taken by Jackson at #52, 10 picks ahead of when we took Terrance Wheatley; Jacksvonville traded up to get Groves). By 2011 we could have one of the best pass rushing tandems in the NFL. Heck, if we'd taken Groves and Barwin, then perhaps we wouldn't even need to take an OLB in 2010. Even if one of them didn't pan out, we'd still have something to build on. But instead we don't take anyone, and then lament that there's no rookie we can count on to step in and produce day 1. We could probably have picked Groves up for cheap at the trade deadline this year (he was rumored to be on the block, and wasn't starting for Jax, so he should have been cheap), but didn't make a move.

    Einstein called insanity "doing the same thing over and expecting a different result". We've done the same thing over and over again. It hasn't worked out.

    We've got 4 picks in the first 2 rounds. Take a chance on JPP, or Romeus, or Austen Lane, or Jeremy Beal, or some other guys. Maybe 2 of them. Figure out which ones have tghe best chance, but don't expect miracles for 2010, and expect perfection from the draft process. But just maybe we'll have something worth building on for 2011.
     
  8. carolinatony

    carolinatony In the Starting Line-Up

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    Thanks guys
    I don't care who we draft as long as we get 2 guys who can PRESSURE the QB.
     
  9. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    As Ochmed said, the film isn't flattering, but he has a ton of physical tools and tremendous upside. If BB felt he was the real deal and wanted to use a 1st on him, I wouldn't have a problem with it, though there's other guys I prefer at this point.

    There's 5 guys 6'5" or taller with exceptional physical skills or raw ability who could be available in the 1st/2nd round: Carlos Dunlap, JPP, Greg Hardy, Greg Romeus, and Austen Lane. If BB wants tall lanky guys with rare athleticism, this is the year to take a few chances. None are locks, but you'll seldom find more of those kind of guys in one draft. Otherwise, there's plenty of other guys who fit a different profile but are good pass rushing candidates.

    As you say, just take someone. Preferably 2 of them.
     
  10. carolinatony

    carolinatony In the Starting Line-Up

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    Preferably 2 of them


    I agree. One may not pan out abd kets me honest; this is our Biggest weakness we need to address.
     
  11. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    Actually I think that our biggest weakness is thew lack of anything resembling a real OC. (And BB does not need any draft picks to fix that.)

    Next on my list is a pass rusher.

    Watching Ware take down Brees late in the fourth quarter was really humbling to watch.

    Also watching Mathews against Pittsburgh as a pass rusher and in coverage was really painful to watch as well.
     
  12. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Yep, I saw Matthews out there in key 3rd down situations and was thinking out loud (thinking = swearing), hmm... What teams could use a 3rd down specialist with upside?

    With Matthews and Seymour the Patriots front seven would look like

    TBC, Thomas
    Seymour\Green
    Mayo \ Someone
    Guyton\Someone
    Warren\Wright
    Matthews\Burgess\Woods

    Lots of talent, lots of depth...
     
  13. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not to mention Peppers against Minnesota.

    I have to say, I was wrong about Matthews. I liked him a lot, but I had concerns that he could bulk up enough to be effective in the Pats' D and still keep his speed. He's obviously special.

    What would be your plan for a "real OC"?
     
  14. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    What are the odds Crable is doing just that? I remember Belichick had a much higher grade on him than he was drafted at.
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2009
  15. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #91 Jersey

    If your saying what about Crable in the scheme of things have you ever seen a rookie miss his first two years come back and be successful? I can't think of one, i don't think Crable will make it back, at least not with this team.
     
  16. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    What are the odds of a rookie going on IR for 2 years and then coming in and being a solid regular season contributor? Pretty low, I'd say.
     
  17. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    There were rumors Jax was trying to trade Groves before the trade deadline. Not sure if there was any reality behind the rumors but I still think there's upside for him in our defense vs his role in the Jags defense. If he can be had for a second day pick I'd to it, quickly.
     
  18. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    Well, you'd have to ask yourself if he's really hurt enough to be on IR, or did BB know he was 2 years away from competing and didn't want to take up a roster spot nor be exposed on the practice squad.

    Now, since IR guys aren't supposed to practice, I'd say he's probably legitimately injured. But we also know that, at least in the past, IR guys practiced for the Patriots.

    I'm not expecting anything from Crable. I didn't like the draft pick. But stranger things have happened. I was just responding to your post that Belichick should've been planning ahead all these years and have guys in the pipeline. I think he thought he'd have at least one, not to mention the guys like Angelo Craig and Dwayne(?) Robertson that were on the practice squad. No, they weren't drafted highly, but usually guys who need seasoning often aren't...especially now that there's a max-length contract. By the time a second round draft pick is really ready to contribute, he's a free agent.
     
  19. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It seemed that around 2008 BB was making some effort to develop a pipeline, between drafting Jeremey Mincey and Pierre Woods in 2006, and drafting Crable and signing Vince Redd, Angelo Craig and Darrell Robertson in 2008. Crable was the only one of those guys drafted before the 6th round, but at least there was some effort to get guys with the kind of length and athleticism that BB likes. But Woods is basically a STer, and all of the other guys except for Crable have been cut. Crable's been on IR for 2 years.

    I'm still optimistic that perhaps Crable can bulk up, get healthy, and join Ninkovich as a 4th/5th OLB behind TBC and a couple of new guys. But that's the best case scenario I can envision right now. Expecting him to come in and get serious playing time and contribute in 2011 seems far-fetched, even to my rose-colored eyes.

    Crable's a good example of someone who sort of fit BB's profile, but had major flaws. He had the length at 6'5" but was very light at 245#, and the plan was to bulk him up and let coach Woicek make him stronger. That didn't seem to happen by training camp of this year, and he looked lost trying to set the edge and take on blockers. His combine 40 time of 4.61 was very good for a guy his size, but his 3-cone of 7.29 and his 20 yard shuttle of 4.55 suggested that he lacked agility and lateral movement skills necessary to play OLB. Compare that with the report 6.70 and 4.07 for Austen Lane, or Connor Barwin's 6.70 and 4.18.

    I started a thread on the main site questioning whether BB is too conservative about playing rookies. Both Crable and Brace seem to suffer from the same kind of issues - not strong enough or technically sound enough to handle blockers. Both have had minimal playing time. I don't know if Crable's injury was truly serious enough to warrant IR or if that was just a way of parking him, but I question whether he's going to make serious improvement sitting on IR rather than getting reps with the team and some game time experience. It didn't seem to make much of a difference between his rookie and sophomore TCs.

    Finally, you mention that "by the time a second round pick's ready to contribute, he's a free agent." That seems to me a serious concern, especially given how conservative BB is about using rookies. It seems like sometimes guys develop more slowly with the Pats than they might with other teams where they would get more experience, and by the time they are productive contributors we have to worry about them becoming FAs. I'm not sure what the solution is to this problem.

    At any rate, I'll be thrilled if Crable even makes the team and plays a productive role on STs and as a backup next season.
     

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