De-Constructing The First Round; who will be available for the Pats at #27?

[manxman2601]

I'm starting to see a bit of a consensus develop as to how the first round is starting to fill out in all that I've read and I've started this thread in the hope of analysing who is likely to be available to us at the bottom of the first - the recent 'movement' of people like Chandler Jones, Shea McLellin and Stephon Gilmore might have altered things. This is not a mock, rather an attempt to determine who will not be avaialble and thus by extension who will.

So...

Tier One

I'd say the following are top 10 locks:

Andrew Luck
RGIII
Morris Claiborne
Trent Richardson
Matt Kalil
Fletcher Cox

Tier Two

The following are almost certainly not going to fall past #20:

Justin Blackmon
Melvin Ingram
Michael Floyd
Stephon Gilmore
Mark Barron
Ryan Tannehill

Tier Three

The following are very likely to be taken top 20 but there is an outside chance of them falling. We shouldn't be banking on it however:

Quinton Coples
Chandler Jones
David DeCastro
Luke Kuechly
Dontari Poe

So that's seventeen prospects that are almost certainly out of reach unless we trade up. Now how about trying to analyse the remaining prospects:

Dre Kirkpatrick: Linked strongly to TEN. Good fit for DET, CIN and SD. Small chance of falling to us.

Courtney Upshaw: Have seen it said that if he gets by CIN, then he's likely in for a bit of a fall. If he gets by NYJ and CIN, good chance he'll fall to us.

Dont'a Hightower: Have seen it reported that KC love him, as do SEA. I think he's also a good fit for NYJ and obviously PIT. Having said that, teams might not see him as a three down guy so he could still fall. Medium chance of falling.

Michael Brockers: Lots of team interest in him and at any stage after about pick 14, he could be seen as BPA. I think, in part because of a fairly deep DT class in round two, there's a fairly good chance he falls.

Devon Still/Jerel Worthy: Borderline first rounders. DEN is the most likely to stop them falling but I've seen it reported that they like the value on second round DT's so he could well slip past them. Excellent chance he falls.

Shea McLellin: Hard to guage where teams stand on him. Could go off the board anytime from CHI onwards (they've expressed interest in him). Hot commodity right now. Medium chance of falling.

Whitney Mercilus/Nick Perry: Looking increasingly likely that there'll be a run on pass rushers in the 15-22 range. CHI, TEN, SD, NYJ, CIN, CLE, DET all need pass rush ahead of us. Minimal chance of falling.

Riley Reiff: Can't see him getting past DET or PIT at the latest. Minimal chance of falling.

Cordy Glenn: See above.

Jonathan Martin: some question marks as to whether he's a legit first rounder. Excellent chance of falling.


This doesn't include the likes of Stephen Hill, Doug Martin, Coby Fleener and Brandon Weeden who could all jump ahead of us and cause another to fall.

So in order of first round prospects likely to fall to us, I'd rank them roughly as follows:

1. Jonathan Martin
2. Devon Still, Jerel Worthy
3. Courtney Upshaw
4=. Michael Brockers
4=. Dont'a Hightower
5. Shea McLellin
6. Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry
7. Dre Kirkpatrick
8. Riley Reiff, Cordy Glenn

So of the consensus projected first rounders, those are the only one's I can see falling to pick 27.

Thoughts?

Edit: Added Jerel Worthy.

 

[manxman2601]

Just realised that some may see this as stating the obvious. Really just wrote it as a way of concentrating minds going in to these last few days.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I'm starting to see a bit of a consensus develop as to how the first round is starting to fill out in all that I've read and I've started this thread in the hope of analysing who is likely to be available to us at the bottom of the first - the recent 'movement' of people like Chandler Jones, Shea McLellin and Stephon Gilmore might have altered things. This is not a mock, rather an attempt to determine who will not be avaialble and thus by extension who will.

So...

Tier One

I'd say the following are top 10 locks:

Andrew Luck
RGIII
Morris Claiborne
Trent Richardson
Matt Kalil
Fletcher Cox

Tier Two

The following are almost certainly not going to fall past #20:

Justin Blackmon
Melvin Ingram
Michael Floyd
Stephon Gilmore
Mark Barron
Ryan Tannehill

Tier Three

The following are very likely to be taken top 20 but there is an outside chance of them falling. We shouldn't be banking on it however:

Quinton Coples
Chandler Jones
David DeCastro
Luke Kuechly
Dontari Poe

So that's seventeen prospects that are almost certainly out of reach unless we trade up. Now how about trying to analyse the remaining prospects:

Dre Kirkpatrick: Linked strongly to TEN. Good fit for DET, CIN and SD. Small chance of falling to us.

Courtney Upshaw: Have seen it said that if he gets by CIN, then he's likely in for a bit of a fall. If he gets by NYJ and CIN, good chance he'll fall to us.

Dont'a Hightower: Have seen it reported that KC love him, as do SEA. I think he's also a good fit for NYJ and obviously PIT. Having said that, teams might not see him as a three down guy so he could still fall. Medium chance of falling.

Michael Brockers: Lots of team interest in him and at any stage after about pick 14, he could be seen as BPA. I think, in part because of a fairly deep DT class in round two, there's a fairly good chance he falls.

Devon Still/Jerel Worthy: Borderline first rounders. DEN is the most likely to stop them falling but I've seen it reported that they like the value on second round DT's so he could well slip past them. Excellent chance he falls.

Shea McLellin: Hard to guage where teams stand on him. Could go off the board anytime from CHI onwards (they've expressed interest in him). Hot commodity right now. Medium chance of falling.

Whitney Mercilus/Nick Perry: Looking increasingly likely that there'll be a run on pass rushers in the 15-22 range. CHI, TEN, SD, NYJ, CIN, CLE, DET all need pass rush ahead of us. Minimal chance of falling.

Riley Reiff: Can't see him getting past DET or PIT at the latest. Minimal chance of falling.

Cordy Glenn: See above.

Jonathan Martin: some question marks as to whether he's a legit first rounder. Excellent chance of falling.


This doesn't include the likes of Stephen Hill, Doug Martin, Coby Fleener and Brandon Weeden who could all jump ahead of us and cause another to fall.

So in order of first round prospects likely to fall to us, I'd rank them roughly as follows:

1. Jonathan Martin
2. Devon Still, Jerel Worthy
3. Courtney Upshaw
4=. Michael Brockers
4=. Dont'a Hightower
5. Shea McLellin
6. Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry
7. Dre Kirkpatrick
8. Riley Reiff, Cordy Glenn

So of the consensus projected first rounders, those are the only one's I can see falling to pick 27.

Thoughts?

Edit: Added Jerel Worthy.

Any player added in your likely prospects to fall category improves the team imo. I think there is a good chance there will be some happy Patriots fans come Thursday night unless BB pulls some obscure names out of his hat.

 

[WhiZa]

I like your thought process, but I would never put stock into what teams say they are interested in. More times then not they are actually not interested in that player at all.

 

[manxman2601]

I like your thought process, but I would never put stock into what teams say they are interested in. More times then not they are actually not interested in that player at all.

I didn't really. I tend to base those evals off a bunch of sources. Mocks, team visits, expert opinions, research into needs and schemes and my own thinking.

 

[manxman2601]

Just realised two players I forgot: Kendall Wright and Janoris Jenkins. I'd rate both as very good chances of falling and would put them in the top half of my rankings.

 

[ay-yo]

Well put together list for 1-17. My big board after that would be

18. Nick Perry
19. Shea McLellin
20. Dre Kirkpatrick
21. Jerel Worthy
22. Courtney Upshaw
23. Vinny Curry
24. Donta Hightower
25. Michael Brockers
26. Whitney Mercilus
27. Devon Still
28. Kendall Reyes

and Janoris Jenkins could be in there (as high as 18) pending how BB judges his character. I think you get what I'm going for here. Get 2 defensive guys at 27 and 31. As long as a few offensive guys get in there (Reiff, Glenn, Martin, Wright, Hill, Fleener) we should be in great shape.

edit: I believe Brockers and Mercilus are the only 1 year starters on my list. Isn't one of BB's 1st round requirements multiple years of starting? If so that would bump them down.

 

[Seneschal2]

Some are considering Kuechly as one of the half a dozen blue chippers (I only have four). If someone in the top 15 needs a pure ILB -- he's their pick.

Also, word is, most of the pass rushers may be gone in the 10-20 range.

True or not, just stuff to consider...

 

[BradyManny]

Just realised that some may see this as stating the obvious. Really just wrote it as a way of concentrating minds going in to these last few days.

Not at all redundant - I think as the draft approaches, our focus narrows in and the picture becomes clearer than ever as it pertains to the first round.

I like your thought process and agree with the bulk of what you wrote. I think it's a fair assessment of how the draft plays out - but I personally think it shows that the end of round 1 is not the sweet spot of this draft.

I continue to hope we can work some decent trades at the end of round 1. I'd love to move into what I consider the sweet spot, rounds 2 and 3, where there is depth at some positions of need.

Obviously, the alternative - which you've suggested in other threads - is to move up into the tier 1 or 2 areas. It could happen, I just think there's more value in stockpiling round 2/3 guys.

 

[manxman2601]

Not at all redundant - I think as the draft approaches, our focus narrows in and the picture becomes clearer than ever as it pertains to the first round.

I like your thought process and agree with the bulk of what you wrote. I think it's a fair assessment of how the draft plays out - but I personally think it shows that the end of round 1 is not the sweet spot of this draft.

I continue to hope we can work some decent trades at the end of round 1. I'd love to move into what I consider the sweet spot, rounds 2 and 3, where there is depth at some positions of need.

Obviously, the alternative - which you've suggested in other threads - is to move up into the tier 1 or 2 areas. It could happen, I just think there's more value in stockpiling round 2/3 guys.

I agree with you. I'm a big fan of trading back into the second and third round. I think there's a lot of really talented role players there and maybe even some starters. I know others will focus on the likes of Harrison Smith, Trumain Johnson, Kendall Reyes et al, the players I love in those rounds are:

Lavonte David
Mychal Kendricks
Brandon Boykin
Ryan Broyles
Jamell fleming
Marvin Jones
Ronnell Lewis
Tyrone Crawford
Casey Heyward
Ron Brooks
Joe Adams
Greg Childs

A lot of those are projects or role players but give me 3-4 of them plus a starter or two and I think it would be a very good draft.