I'm starting to see a bit of a consensus develop as to how the first round is starting to fill out in all that I've read and I've started this thread in the hope of analysing who is likely to be available to us at the bottom of the first - the recent 'movement' of people like Chandler Jones, Shea McLellin and Stephon Gilmore might have altered things. This is not a mock, rather an attempt to determine who will not be avaialble and thus by extension who will. So... Tier One I'd say the following are top 10 locks: Andrew Luck RGIII Morris Claiborne Trent Richardson Matt Kalil Fletcher Cox Tier Two The following are almost certainly not going to fall past #20: Justin Blackmon Melvin Ingram Michael Floyd Stephon Gilmore Mark Barron Ryan Tannehill Tier Three The following are very likely to be taken top 20 but there is an outside chance of them falling. We shouldn't be banking on it however: Quinton Coples Chandler Jones David DeCastro Luke Kuechly Dontari Poe So that's seventeen prospects that are almost certainly out of reach unless we trade up. Now how about trying to analyse the remaining prospects: Dre Kirkpatrick: Linked strongly to TEN. Good fit for DET, CIN and SD. Small chance of falling to us. Courtney Upshaw: Have seen it said that if he gets by CIN, then he's likely in for a bit of a fall. If he gets by NYJ and CIN, good chance he'll fall to us. Dont'a Hightower: Have seen it reported that KC love him, as do SEA. I think he's also a good fit for NYJ and obviously PIT. Having said that, teams might not see him as a three down guy so he could still fall. Medium chance of falling. Michael Brockers: Lots of team interest in him and at any stage after about pick 14, he could be seen as BPA. I think, in part because of a fairly deep DT class in round two, there's a fairly good chance he falls. Devon Still/Jerel Worthy: Borderline first rounders. DEN is the most likely to stop them falling but I've seen it reported that they like the value on second round DT's so he could well slip past them. Excellent chance he falls. Shea McLellin: Hard to guage where teams stand on him. Could go off the board anytime from CHI onwards (they've expressed interest in him). Hot commodity right now. Medium chance of falling. Whitney Mercilus/Nick Perry: Looking increasingly likely that there'll be a run on pass rushers in the 15-22 range. CHI, TEN, SD, NYJ, CIN, CLE, DET all need pass rush ahead of us. Minimal chance of falling. Riley Reiff: Can't see him getting past DET or PIT at the latest. Minimal chance of falling. Cordy Glenn: See above. Jonathan Martin: some question marks as to whether he's a legit first rounder. Excellent chance of falling. This doesn't include the likes of Stephen Hill, Doug Martin, Coby Fleener and Brandon Weeden who could all jump ahead of us and cause another to fall. So in order of first round prospects likely to fall to us, I'd rank them roughly as follows: 1. Jonathan Martin 2. Devon Still, Jerel Worthy 3. Courtney Upshaw 4=. Michael Brockers 4=. Dont'a Hightower 5. Shea McLellin 6. Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry 7. Dre Kirkpatrick 8. Riley Reiff, Cordy Glenn So of the consensus projected first rounders, those are the only one's I can see falling to pick 27. Thoughts? Edit: Added Jerel Worthy.